Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

031
FXAK68 PAFC 131352
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 AM AKST Fri Nov 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A complex upper-level weather pattern will persist over the
region through early next week, with the longwave trough extending
from the eastern Bering across the AKPen and into the North
Pacific. Multiple shortwaves will rotate around a developing
upper-level low over the AKPen today, allowing a surface trough
south of Kodiak Island to remain nearly stationary through this
evening before finally weakening and drifting south tonight.
Kodiak Island will remain primarily on the cold side of this
trough, with northwesterly flow aloft. As such, the primary
precipitation type will fall in the form of snow...although enough
warmer air off the Gulf may allow some rain to mix in from time
to time this afternoon for communities along the northern and
eastern coasts. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect
through Saturday evening.

Elsewhere, light showers move across the northern Gulf coast this
morning, with an isolated shower possible along the southern
Kenai Peninsula. The rest of Southcentral will remain dry, albeit
with some cloud cover, as the low-level flow becomes northerly.

By Saturday, the upper-level trough over the AKPen will dig south
bringing a shortwave and surface low currently over the far
southeastern Gulf northwest into the central Gulf. It`s warm front
will sweep east to west across the Southcentral coast with a cold
northerly flow out ahead of it and a warmer easterly flow in its
wake. Expect light snow along with an increase in northeasterly
winds for Thompson Pass by Saturday afternoon. By Saturday
evening, snow will develop over the Kenai Peninsula, eventually
spilling over the coastal mountains and across the western Kenai,
Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su valleys by Saturday night. The snow
could be heavy at times for the eastern Kenai Peninsula with 6 to
12" of snow not out of the question from Girdwood and Portage to
Primrose with lesser amounts for Whittier and Seward. For
Anchorage, 2 to 5" of snow is likely; however, there is still some
uncertainty as to the exact track and timing. Any faster and
farther south movement of the front will lower snow totals for the
Anchorage Bowl. As the front moves over the Kenai Peninsula and
drifts south Sunday, a warmer, easterly flow will advect in from
Prince William Sound. Snow will likely change quickly to rain for
coastal areas, but could linger as a wintry mix of snow, rain, and
freezing rain for higher elevations of the Seward Highway. Snow
may also end as a brief period of freezing rain from Anchorage to
Kenai as the warmer air moves over the coastal mountains. One
other area of concern will be around Homer, particularly the Homer
Bluffs. Here, snow could linger through Sunday as the front
stalls and colder air remains in place. There is greater
uncertainty here as to how much cold air holds on. However, if it
does remain colder across the southwestern Kenai Peninsula, snow
totals could reach 3 to 6" from Ninilchik to Homer and Seldovia
with up to 10" for the bluffs and Diamond Ridge.

- TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Broad northwesterly flow continues across the eastern Bering Sea,
and is still yielding small craft gap winds for the Alaska
Peninsula, particularly near Chignik and Wide Bay. These winds are
on track to increase across the Alaska Peninsula, and out of the
southern gaps and passes, through today and into the weekend.
Chance for freezing fog early this morning for the Kuskokwim Delta
and Kuskokwim Delta Coast. There will be some degree of an
onshore wind component, so indications are this will be mostly
advection fog from the Bering.

By late this morning, stronger southwesterly winds will pick up
along the western Aleutians as a new low pressure system arrives
to the Bering Sea. This system will mostly be a rainmaker for the
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands with some snow on the front`s
leading edge. By Saturday morning, the low pressure system will
make it`s way into the central Bering, spreading westerly gales
across the Aleutians, including Adak/Atka at the time. By Sunday
morning, it is expected that the system will pivot, shifting
southward and pulling colder air down along it`s western
periphery. As the low center dives south over the Pribilofs and
eventually the eastern Aleutians, gusty winds are expected to blow
through the Aleutians between Unalaska and Atka.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Troughing continues into the middle of next week over Southern
Alaska and the Bering. Multiple lows will move through the
forecast area through the middle of next week, resulting in a more
unsettled weather pattern.

By Monday morning, a low pressure system looks to be positioned
in the eastern Bering with another low pressure system in the
eastern Gulf. The low in the eastern Gulf moves to the western
Gulf by Monday afternoon and becomes the primary low as the low
from the Bering merges into it. The merged low looks to stall in
the western Gulf Monday evening and weaken through Wednesday
morning before it dissipates.

Scattered snow showers look to continue across the Bering and the
Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday as cold air continues to stream
in around the low. Some isolated snow showers are possible across
Southwest Alaska on Monday, though most precipitation looks to
remain offshore. With slightly warmer temperatures near the
Aleutians, some rain may mix in with snow through Tuesday.
Precipitation should taper off for Southwest, the Alaska
Peninsula, and the eastern Bering and Aleutians by Tuesday morning
as the low continues to weaken in the Gulf. For Southcentral,
highest chances for precipitation through Wednesday morning will
be along the northern Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island, with lower
chances for precipitation for the Western Kenai, Anchorage and
places inland. Confidence is still medium with exact low
placement, with a low closer to shore increasing precip chances
inland. The Gulf low brings in slightly warmer air to Southcentral
from the North Pacific. Confidence is medium-high for most
locations at low elevations of Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf
Coast to receive rain and for most inland and higher elevation
locations to receive snow (if precip makes it there).
Precipitation type could be a mix for the western Kenai,
Anchorage, and the Mat-Su should precip fall between Monday and
Wednesday. Details will become more clear as we see what the weak
system this weekend does.

The strongest low looks to impact the western Aleutians and
Bering as it moves out of the northwest Pacific starting Monday
afternoon. Confidence is high that this low deepens to at least
960 mb by Wednesday and has strong winds around it as it moves
across the western Aleutians into the southern Bering.
Precipitation will likely be a rain/snow mix on the east side of
the low and mostly snow on the west side of the low. Confidence is
medium-low with the exact track of the low as, by Wednesday
morning, models have it positioned somewhere between the eastern
Aleutians to just north of the Pribilofs. Where the low tracks
will have an effect on potential hazards the low brings,
especially as a sting jet of up to hurricane-force winds looks to
develop south of the low on Tuesday. Should the low track in the
southern Bering, these winds line up along the Aleutian Chain into
the southern Alaska Peninsula Tuesday-Wednesday. A further north
track would keep these winds in the Bering but could bring some
coastal flooding concerns to the Southwest Coast. Exact
positioning and hazard concerns will become more clear in the
coming days.

A front from this low looks to enter the Southwest Alaska and
southwestern Gulf Wednesday morning and move onshore the northern
Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon. Chances for precipitation return
for both Southwest and Southcentral Wednesday-Thursday, with
highest confidence in Southwest Alaska and along the northern Gulf
Coast. Confidence is medium on Wednesday for gale- force winds
along this front in the Gulf. The low weakens starting Wednesday
afternoon as it tracks into Bristol Bay/the Alaska Peninsula.
Winds look to weaken, though precipitation likely remains across
Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula. By Thursday afternoon there is
general agreement of this low being positioned over the northern
Alaska Peninsula.

- PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the
TAF period Saturday morning. Cloud cover should inhibit fog
formation this morning. However, ceilings may drop to the 5,000
feet early this morning before lifting back above 5,000 feet later
this morning. We are monitoring the progression and evolution of
the next system and chance for precipitation, lower ceilings, and
lower visibilities over the terminal, which would come Saturday
evening to overnight Saturday.

&&


$$