Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

985
FXAK68 PAFC 050136
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 PM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

Current satellite imagery shows the low which has tracked through
the Gulf beginning to dissipate over the Kenai Peninsula.
Widespread precipitation has fallen across Southcentral, with the
heaviest precipitation along the northern Gulf Coast. As the low
continues to weaken tonight, chances for precipitation continue
across Southcentral. Temperatures have warmed enough for
precipitation to fall as mostly rain for the road system.
Low temperatures aren`t expected to drop much tonight, allowing
this trend to continue. Some snow may mix into with precipitation
tonight in the Copper River Basin and Thompson Pass as
overnight low temperatures will be slightly cooler there.

As the low over the Kenai dissipates, another low in the Bering
Sea moves over the Alaska Peninsula tonight and tracks over
Kodiak Island on Monday. This low then slowly moves to the
northern Gulf and weakens through Wednesday morning. This will
maintain warm and moist air moving into Southcentral at the
surface, however, this system brings in cooler air aloft. This
makes conditions favorable for showers, especially throughout the
Gulf, along the northern Gulf Coast and at higher elevations of
the Wrangell Mountains. Some lighter showers likely make it into
the western Kenai, Anchorage, Mat-Su, and Copper River Basin,
with highest chances on Monday. As the low begins to weaken on
Tuesday, chances of precipitation begin to slowly decrease for
interior parts of Southcentral. Precipitation will be mostly rain
for the road system through Wednesday as surface temperatures only
drop to the upper 30s. Colder places and higher elevations such
as Thompson Pass likely see some overnight snow each night as
temperatures drop low enough to transition precip to from rain to
snow. Some overnight snow may mix in with any rain that falls in
the Copper River Basin as well as low temperatures are expected to
fall to the low to mid 30s.

In the Gulf, warm surface temps with cooler temps aloft will
result in some instability. With some lift from the low, there is
a 20 to 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf
starting tonight and lasting through Tuesday afternoon, when the
low weakens. Showers look to continue in the Gulf through
Wednesday morning.

Another weak shortwave likely moves through Southcentral on
Wednesday. This looks to reinforce similar conditions with showery
activity across the region and some snow at higher elevations,
Highest chances of precipitation will continue to be along the
Gulf Coast, with lower chances of isolated showers across the rest
of Southcentral.

- PA

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A 979 mb Bering low continues to make its way across the
Aleutians, bringing clouds with steady rain for the Southwest
Mainland, Alaska Peninsula, and the Aleutian chain east of
Nikolski. Gusty winds in Unalaska and Nikolski seen this morning
will diminish by evening but will remain breezy (15-20 mph) over
the next few days. The rain is set to end over the Southwest
Mainland overnight as the low tracks over the Alaska Peninsula
before exiting into the Gulf Monday morning. The Southwest
Mainland sees continued cold air advection from northerly flow for
the next few days, causing temperatures to gradually drop.
Wednesday night/Thursday morning low temperatures will drop to the
mid to low 20s across the Southwest Mainland. The coldest spots
will be inland areas such as the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

A change in the pattern will bring broad northerly flow across
the Aleutian Chain east of Adak as well as the Alaska Peninsula
on Monday. The gap areas of the Alaska Peninsula and Unalaska are
expected to be gusty through Wednesday. The interaction between
the colder air and the relatively warmer waters will bring
chances for showers (30%) to the Pribilof Islands, Unalaska, and
Alaska Peninsula regions. Meanwhile, a ridge is set to build west
of Adak where low stratus and fog is expected.

The initial front of a North Pacific low reaches Shemya Tuesday
afternoon, bringing rain with gusty winds. Specifically, there is
a swath of strong wind gusts from Shemya to Adak with a 50%
chance of exceeding 60 mph from the REFS ensemble. The system will
shift the ridge eastward and become elongated from a progressive
pattern. The front will push through Adak early Wednesday morning,
which will shut off the northerly flow over the eastern Bering
before Thursday.

-SS/JAR

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The main weather feature for the Long Term will be the phasing of
ex-typhoon Choi-Wan and a broad low complex over the Kamchatka
Peninsula. Model guidance still has a ~400 mile spread on where
the ex-typhoon will cross into the Chain, ranging from Shemya to
Adak and Atka. Regardless of the low track, storm force winds will
encompass these areas in addition to the western Bering Sea, but
near the low center will likely be a swath of hurricane force
winds. The strongest of these winds will be overnight Wednesday
into Thursday morning. The front associated with the low will
track over the eastern Aleutians, southern Alaska Peninsula and
the Y-K Delta by Thursday afternoon. Wind speeds associated with
the front are likely to be gales.

We are continuing to monitor potential coastal impacts from the
front as it moves into the Y-K on Thursday. Luckily the tides will
be corresponding to a new moon, meaning they are near their lowest
of the lunar cycle for this month. Some high surf to minor coastal
flooding may be possible (10-20% chance). Forecast confidence for
this region decreases by Friday, mainly in regards to the front
and whether or not a triple point develops and pushes an
elongated low north into the eastern Bering. Additionally, the
main low will remain in the western Bering, which will continue
onshore flow for the Southwest coastline.

For the weekend most of the energy begins to move into the Gulf
and Southcentral. Widespread rain, which may be heavy at times,
will move into the areas late Saturday and into Sunday. A large
swath of gales is likely in the Gulf, with potential for strong
gap winds as well


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Rain showers will continue through the overnight hours,
continuing to saturate the atmosphere and leading to the
development of MVFR ceilings later in the day today. A weak area
of low pressure will move inland later today, which may induce a
weak Turnagain Arm wind around 7-10kts.

&&

$$