Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

112
FXAK68 PAFC 081313
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
513 AM AKDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Monday night)...

An upper level high is centered over the southeastern Bering Sea
with a ridge axis extending east-northeast across southern AK,
leading to generally benign weather. Multiple stable layers
associated with the ridge has led to a hodgepodge of clouds across
Southcentral and the Gulf of AK. Low clouds and fog are focused
over the northern Gulf into Prince William Sound. There had been
an area of dense fog over northern Cook Inlet and the northwestern
Kenai Peninsula last evening into the overnight hours, but much
of that has now dissipated (as of 4am).

Amplification of the upper level flow over the Sea of Okhotsk and
far western Bering today will cause a low and trough over the
northern Bering to dig southward across the central bering today.
This in turn will cause the upper high over the eastern Bering to
shift eastward and amplify directly over southern AK. Strong
subsidence with the ridge combined with deep (but weak) northerly
flow will lead to abundant increase sunshine and warm/dry
conditions across most of Southcentral and Kodiak Island this
weekend. The threat of low clouds and fog will persist across the
Gulf waters and Southcentral coastal areas. As is typical, expect
a diurnal cycle of increased clouds and fog overnight through the
morning hours, burning off each afternoon. Persistent northeast
flow aloft for Kodiak will eventually bring in fog from the Gulf,
with arrival time most likely late Sunday or Sunday night.

Weak short-waves riding over top of the ridge will increasingly
cross the northern to eastern Copper River Basin as the upper flow
amplifies. This will bring isolated to scattered afternoon/evening
convection to the Alaska Range, Tok Cutoff and Wrangell Mountains
areas. Models diverge a bit with the upper level pattern on
Monday, with some solutions retrograding the ridge westward as
short-waves dive southward across eastern AK mainland/ALCAN border
area. This could lead to an uptick in afternoon/evening showers,
but right now it looks like most areas will remain warm and dry.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Monday night)...

Key Messages:

* Areas of fog, dense at times, in and along the Bering Sea
  through at least Sunday morning.

* Temperatures trend warmer across Southwest Alaska and peak
  early next week. Expect daytime highs in the 70s for all but the
  immediate coast, with highs approaching the 80s for Kuskokwim
  Valley.

Discussion:

Satellite imagery this morning shows continued widespread low
stratus and fog underneath the ridge stretching across the
southern Bering into the southern Mainland. Fog leading to
visibilites less than 1 mile across the Aleutian Chain and
Pribilof Islands is likely to persist through tomorrow morning.
Similarly reduced visibilities across Southwest Alaska due to fog
is expected through this morning before diurnal heating allows the
fog to lift this afternoon, although fog likely returns
tonight/early tomorrow morning for portions of Bristol Bay to
Iliamna while still under the influence of the ridge.

Farther to the north, a low moving out of far eastern Russia
slowly sags southwards across the northern Bering Sea today,
bringing rain showers and areas of light to moderate rain. As the
surface low will be relatively weak, winds will largely remain
below 25-30 kt. Most of the rainfall from this low and its
associated front is expected to remain over the Bering with
Nunivak Island and the Pribilof Islands seeing the most
precipitation as the system pushes south through the weekend. As
the front grazes the Kuskokwim Delta through Sunday morning, any
showers will be limited to the coastal areas. Light rain makes
its way to the Aleutians mainly from Nikolski to Unalaska for
Sunday into Monday morning as the low continues south and retreats
into the North Pacific.

For Southwest Alaska, expect a general warming trend as we head
into early next week as the ridge nudges back towards the west
following the departure of the low. Daytime highs for Monday and
Tuesday climb into the 70s for Kuskokwim Delta, into the mid 70s
for Bristol Bay, and into the high 70s to perhaps even the low 80s
for Kuskokwim Valley. With warmer temperatures on the horizon, it
may be a good idea to shift plans so that activities and people
who may be more sensitive to warmer temperatures can be done over
the weekend or later next week, when temperatures will be cooler.
Note that this will be a longer stretch of warmer temperatures
too, with temperatures unlikely to drop substantially until late
in the workweek. The good news, however, is that low temperatures
will dip into the high 40s to mid 50s, which will provide the
opportunity for some overnight cooling.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

As Tuesday begins, a weak area of high pressure over the southern
central Bering will persist, with weak troughs flanking to the
northwest over Kamchatka and to the south over the northern
Pacific. This will likely promote a continued pattern of
relatively stable conditions with widespread areas of low stratus
and fog potentially. There is moderate confidence (40-50%) of the
Kamchatka low pressure area dropping south over the western
Bering, aligning the ridge axis over the Bering to be more north-
south oriented. This would promote more unsettled conditions,
gustier winds, rainier weather over the western Aleutians
from Adak westward. By Thursday, model guidance spreads greatly,
but the general theme is a shift away from higher pressure into a
more unsettled pattern to most of the Aleutians through the end of
the work week.

Over the Southern Mainland of Alaska, weak areas of high and low
pressure are expected to remain through early next week. The
resulting weather will be diurnally- driven showers this weekend
into next week. This pattern supports more of a scattered shower
regime as opposed to widespread stratiform. The challenge will be
to gauge instability each afternoon to determine whether or not
lightning will be a threat with any robust showers that form.
Right now, it looks like the Copper River Basin, along the
Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western Alaska Range feature
the most instability through the long-term period. By Thursday and
Friday, weak ridging over the Gulf of Alaska may make way for
lower pressure systems to move in, allowing for a more showery and
windier pattern over Southcentral.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Most of the
low clouds and fog that were in northern Cook Inlet and the NW
Kenai Peninsula overnight have dissipated, so do not expect that
to be a problem at the terminal this morning. At worst, a few
remnant patches of low clouds could pass through the vicinity.
Conditions in Cook Inlet will remain favorable for fog to
redevelop tonight, so will need to closely monitor potential for
fog to reach the terminal tonight through Sunday morning.

&&


$$