Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

462
FXAK68 PAFC 061250
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKDT Wed May 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Shower activity will continue today as a negatively tilted
appendage of a broader trough over the Mainland lifts into
Southcentral. This feature will lift into the Yukon Territory this
evening, but the parent upper low and cold airmass will move
south and center itself near McGrath through Friday morning. This
will bring in cooler air aloft and provide some weak lift and rain
for the Susitna Valley, Anchorage, Alaska Range and the Valdez
Cordova area on Thursday. Snow levels will follow a diurnal curve
ranging from about 1500-1800 during the daytime and dropping to as
low as 500 to 700 ft by Friday morning. The evolution of this
feature Friday into Saturday remains somewhat unresolved,
particularly in how it interacts with an approaching north Pacific
low. Guidance has shifted away from the two phasing, but some
resurgence of moisture is possible near Cordova and the Copper
Valley as the two interact.

For the wind forecast, expect periods of gap winds to continue
through the short term. For today, the Knik and Turnagain Arm
wind will abate, but expect some continued southerly winds in the
Copper Valley as the trough lifts north. The lifting trough will
also generate some small craft westerlies through Kamishak Bay and
15 to maybe 25 kt moving into Kachemak Bay. Turnagain and Knik
winds will return Thursday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sat morning)...

An arctic trough is moving across Southwest Alaska this morning.
Showers are now east of Lime Village, Iliamna, and Dillingham.
High pressure across the central and eastern Bering is drifting
east and nudging into Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula behind
the trough. Drier air is associated with the high pressure and
cool northerly flow, but some of the lower stratus that was over
the Kuskokwim coast is starting to spread throughout the Delta
this morning. Any showers that remain from the arctic trough will
primarily be confined to the higher elevations of the Alaska and
Aleutian Mountains. Otherwise, dry conditions and light winds are
expected across Southwest, the Pribilof Islands, and the Alaska
Peninsula for today and even into Thursday.

Another upper-level low from the Arctic will dig south tonight
and begin to make its presence over the Kuskokwim Valley and along
the Western Alaska Range by Thursday afternoon and last through
Friday. This upper low will be accompanied by cold air aloft and
elevated instability. Thus, diurnally-driven showers will be
possible across the Kuskokwim Valley with increased potential near
the higher elevations of the Kuskokwim mountains and the Western
Alaska Range. For Friday, a North Pacific low sends a front with
additional moisture northward through the Gulf of Alaska. This
will interact with the arctic low that remains across Southwest
and showers will persist for Friday afternoon and evening showers.
Despite the instability and cold air aloft from the upper-level
low over the lower Yukon Valley, surface temperatures, in the
middle 40s, look to be too cold for thunderstorm formation along
the Kuskokwim Valley, interior Bristol Bay, and along the Western
Alaska Range.

Farther out west, a gale-force front spans the western Bering and
Western Aleutians through Adak and Atka this morning. Steady
light rain and gusty southeasterly winds will continue along the
front. This front stalls out and weakens throughout the day today.
Meanwhile, a weak North Pacific low lifts north along the front
into Adak/Atka later tonight, spreading rain across Adak and Atka
through Thursday morning. Nikolski and Unalaska could also see
some of this rain, along with southeasterly winds gusting 25 to 30
mph overnight. Expect continued clouds and showers from time to
time Friday across Shemya and Adak/Atka as an additional embedded
shortwave moves through the area from Kamchatka. This wave will
continue to develop as it tracks east along the Aleutians and
showers will persist for the western Aleutians. However, details
around the timing/location and how much precipitation that would
fall is less clear for Friday afternoon into Saturday. Looking at
the arctic low across Southwest though, showers could spread
westward toward the Kuskokwim Delta as the trough starts to
retrograde west later Friday night into Saturday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Models have come into better agreement regarding the long term
forecast. The global models all have a large North Pacific low
entering the southern Gulf and moving northeastward through Sunday
morning. If current trends continue, the low pressure system
itself moves to Southcentral`s east, but does bring with it
precipitation, mainly for coastal Southcentral areas. Looking
aloft, watching a digging trough or closed low move over Southwest
Alaska, though the question of if/when these two features
interact is still rather uncertain. If they do in fact interact,
the much larger upper trough with the "right" orientation could
help tug/retrograde the low back to the northwest, which would
increase precipitation chances for coastal Southcentral. The next
order of business is a strong front that moves across the
Aleutians and eventually into the western Gulf from Sunday
afternoon to Monday afternoon as its parent low situates itself
across the south-central Bering. After the front pushes into the
Gulf, details become fuzzy. All said, the pattern looks to remain
active through the end of the long term.

-AM

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...Gusty southeasterly winds will continue to taper off early
this morning as the front weakens and shifts east. VFR conditions
are expected to hold through the morning with lingering showers in
the vicinity. Ceilings will lower later this morning into the
afternoon as light rain moves into the terminal, with MVFR
conditions developing as ceilings fall to around 1500 ft. Showers
remain possible into this evening, with winds becoming lighter and
turning more southwesterly.

-LM

&&
$$