Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

254
FXAK68 PAFC 051320
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
420 AM AKST Thu Nov 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The primary two features of note this morning across the Gulf
feature a surface low near Kodiak Island with shortwave trough
lifting northward into Southcentral, and a deepening low that has
lifted out of the North Pacific into the south-central Gulf. The
former feature is loosely associated with an elongated low over the
Bering with troughing extending into the western Gulf to the
aforementioned surface low near Kodiak. This low has sent a few weak
shortwaves up towards the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound
before weakening significantly as the associated front moves inland.
Scattered showers have accompanied this shortwave with coastal areas
along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf Coast seeing
periods of rain as the showers push through. Showers should start to
wind down by late this afternoon or evening. Temperatures should
stick pretty close to what the area saw yesterday, though some areas
may start out cooler this morning due to lesser cloud cover. May
also see a few pockets of fog develop this morning, especially for
some of the areas that have seen clearer skies. By Friday, weak
ridging will allow for drier conditions inland but cooler as colder
air starts to filter in.

The other feature of note is the deepening North Pacific low as it
lifts up into the southern Gulf today. This system is well
advertised to swing up into the northeast Gulf by this evening with
a swath of storm force winds over portions of the northern Gulf. The
low will then retrograde back to the west; however, this is when
model consistency plummets. The GFS favors a stronger low that
brings storm force winds to the far northern Gulf and Hitchinbrook
Entrance area of Prince William Sound. Meanwhile the EC and
Canadian feature a much weaker low that moves to the eastern Kenai
coast. As such, there is much lower confidence on what to expect
heading into the upcoming weekend.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3, Today through Saturday)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows lows over Kodiak Island, the
Y-K Delta, and the western Bering, all of which are currently
contributing to scattered showers across Southwest Alaska, the
northern Alaska Peninsula and the Bering. For the Kuskokwim Valley
and Delta, most precipitation overnight fell as light snow. For
places around Bristol Bay, most precipitation has been rain
overnight. Some snow may mix in with rain this morning as
temperatures hover just above freezing. Showers are expected to
continue through the morning as both lows slowly dissipate. Mostly
clear conditions are currently seen across the southern Alaska
Peninsula and Aleutians.

The low over the Y-K delta dissipates and the low over Kodiak
Island merges with a stronger low farther east in the Gulf today. As
both lows dissipate or merge with other lows, chances for
precipitation slowly decrease throughout the day for lower
elevations of Southwest Alaska. Some snow showers may linger over
higher terrain of the Kilbuck Mountains and along the Alaska Range
through tomorrow morning before dissipating. Temperatures will
continue to cool into the weekend as light northerly winds slowly
bring in colder air from the Interior. High temperatures will
struggle to reach above freezing by Saturday for most places north
of King Salmon.

Showers may persist on the Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula
from Cold Bay to King Salmon through the weekend as westerly
winds upslope into the mountains. With little upper level support,
lingering showers should at most be scattered and not widespread.
Temperatures also slowly decrease into the weekend for the Alaska
Peninsula, leading to potential for more mixed precipitation
during the day and light snow at night.

The low pressure system in the western Bering begins to move
southward today as an upper level trough moves in. Scattered rain
and snow showers will continue across the Bering and Aleutians
today into tomorrow. Building high pressure east of Kamchatka
increases a pressure gradient, which will send a swath of westerly
gale-force winds through the western Bering and western Aleutians
today, reaching the central Aleutians by this evening and exiting
into the North Pacific tomorrow morning. Isolated showers look to
continue over the Bering and eastern Aleutians through Saturday.

A front ahead of a north Pacific low approaches the western
Aleutian Chain Friday night. Current model guidance has this front
stalling south of the chain. Depending on how far north the front
progresses, easterly small-craft to gale-force winds may move
into some coastal waters south of the Chain Friday night into
Saturday. Additionally, showers are possible for the western
Aleutian Chain on Saturday, with higher chances of precipitation
the further north the front progresses.

- PA

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Minor changes from previous discussion. A broad upper trough will
be established from the eastern Bering into the eastern Gulf
through midweek. Several disturbances and surface lows will travel
along the upper longwave trough then the flow will be directed
south of much of the Aleutian Chain and then northeastward into
the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Southwest Alaska will be the focus for
more active weather from Saturday into early next week, though
coastal showers, elevation snow, and periods of gusty gap winds
appear likely for the Gulf coast, especially the Prince William
Sound region. Further inland, drier and cooler conditions remain
favorable. Out west, persistent northerly flow will be common
across the Bering with scattered convective showers possible as
well as elevated gap winds through the Aleutian Chain.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
continue through the period. A 20 to 30 percent chance of light
rain showers continues through this morning before diminishing by
this afternoon.

&&


$$