Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

027
FXAK68 PAFC 191356
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
556 AM AKDT Mon Oct 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- A large storm system will bring widespread rain and snow to most
  of Southcentral tonight through Tuesday night.

- Multiple Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for snow
  including for Broad Pass until 10 pm this evening; and Thompson
  Pass, Western and North Copper River Basin until 4 am Wednesday
  morning.

Discussion:

Widespread precipitation will continue to spread across the Kenai
Peninsula, Susitna Valley, and Prince William Sound through
Monday morning with 0.15" to 0.45" of precipitation already
falling across parts of the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl.
Although temperatures are hovering in the mid 30s for most
locations with rain falling, snow has mixed in at times as heavier
bands of precipitation helped to cool the near surface just enough
for a few snowflakes to reach lower elevations. Farther north into
the Susitna and Northern Copper River Valleys, temperatures in
the upper 20s to lower 30s have allowed the precipitation to begin
as snow.

As noted in the previous forecast discussion, precipitation type
continues to be a forecast challenge as it will be highly
dependent on morning temperatures. A rain/snow mix will be
possible at times across the western Kenai, Anchorage, and the
Mat Valley before quickly changing over to rain as warmer
southeasterly flow erodes the cooler airmass currently in place.
Higher elevations (>2000 ft) will see snow with a possible
changeover to a rain/mix for coastal areas. As temperatures drop
back down towards freezing Monday night, should see precipitation
change back. Snowfall is expected to be slower to change over with
rain in the Susitna Valley Monday morning through Monday afternoon
while the Northern Copper Basin remains cold enough to see all
snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for these areas for
accumulating snowfall.

By Tuesday morning, an additional, stronger low pressure system
lifts north in the Gulf and tracks towards Prince William Sound by
Tuesday evening, leading to an additional round of precipitation
Tuesday into Wednesday. Total two-day snowfall in the Susitna
Valley is expected to range from 1" to 3" with 4" to 8" through
Broad Pass. The Northern Copper River Basin along the Richardson
Highway north of Gulkana could see around 4" to 10" of snow with
amounts as high as 10" to 20" from Paxson north. For areas along
the Glenn Highway west of Mendeltna, 6" to 12" of snow is likely.
These areas will be the most likely areas to see temperatures
hovering near to below freezing allowing for snow to accumulate.
Thompson Pass will also see mostly snow, though there is a chance
it could swing from snow to a mix of precipitation at times.
However, it should remain cold enough for modest snowfall rates of
1" to 1.5" per hour with the potential to see accumulations above
10 inches from Monday through Tuesday night. The coastal areas
along the Gulf and Prince William Sound will see the bulk of
precipitation from the system. The lower-elevations along the
coast could see rainfall amounts of several inches, from 1" to 3"
of rain across the eastern Kenai to 2" to 4" from Whittier to
Valdez and up to 6" of rain for Cordova. Upwards of an inch or
more of rain (or rain/snow mix at times) could fall across the
Cook Inlet region as well.

The precipitation forecast across the western Kenai, Anchorage,
and the MatSu remains fairly uncertain as model guidance continues
to struggle to come to a consensus on a storm track in the Gulf. A
farther west storm track in the Gulf could lead to a much more
substantial second round of precipitation for these areas for
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with temperatures likely cooling back
down enough by this time to see wet snow or a rain/snow mix near
sea level. A more eastward track scenario would largely clear
precipitation out of these areas by Tuesday, with the Gulf coast,
Prince William Sound, and Copper Basin continuing to see a bulk of
the precipitation.

Winds will also be quite strong for a few locations as well, with
strong easterly winds ahead of the first front today through
Prince William Sound and across Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage
Hillside. Strong winds and gusts over the Gulf will then be
reinforced by the rapidly deepening secondary surface low with a
likely core of storm-force winds over the open waters. Gusty
westerly winds will develop by Tuesday morning for Kodiak with a
period of strong northerly winds for Cook Inlet and Seward Tuesday
morning as well. This low will keep strong winds across Prince
William Sound into Wednesday morning.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A front moving across Southwest Alaska will exit to the north and
continue weakening through this morning. Light snow showers were
observed overnight across much of Southwest Alaska, with little to
no accumulation for most areas. Light snow will continue for
inland areas late this morning into early afternoon, becoming
mixed with rain and eventually transitioning to all rain as
temperatures warm above freezing. By late afternoon, precipitation
will mostly be confined to the mountain ranges and areas from
Sleetmute to Aniak and north. Cold air being pulled south across
the central/eastern Bering Sea will promote areas of small craft
winds today, with locally higher gusts through the gaps and passes
south of the Alaska Peninsula, though potential impacts are
minimal. Winds diminish below small craft Tuesday morning.

Relatively benign conditions are expected across Southwest Alaska,
Aleutian Chain, and Bering sea through the early to mid week until
the next front/low approaches from the west late week.

KM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong storm moves across the Bering Sea and into Alaska from
  Thursday through the weekend, bringing winds as high as 40 to
  60 mph.

* Though confidence is low in exact impacts at this time, strong
  onshore winds and elevated coastal water levels are a concern
  for Southwest Alaska on Friday and Saturday.

Discussion:

The biggest story in the long-term forecast will be a strong low
transiting from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Alaska. Ensembles are
in relatively good agreement with this storm, with seemingly
higher-than-average forecast confidence given that this feature is
4 to 7 days out. Good run-to-run consistency among deterministic
global models is also contributing to higher-than-average forecast
confidence. The areas of highest agreement with this feature are
for gale to storm force sustained winds along the front, including
as it moves across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
coastline. These onshore winds are raising concerns for coastal
impacts (including high surf and perhaps even coastal flooding)
for south-facing portions of the Western coast. It`s too early to
say for now what projected water levels will be, but we will be
closely monitoring this storm. Southcentral should be spared the
worst of the winds with this storm, as the front will very likely
be weakening by the time it exits Southwest Alaska.

In addition to winds, there will also be plenty of moisture advection
along the front, which will bring periods of moderate to heavy
precipitation to the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest
Alaska. Precipitation amounts are a bit uncertain at this time, as
overall amounts will be dependent on where the front may slow
down and linger as upper waves move through. Given the strong
winds associated with the front, there will likely also be areas
of downsloping that will reduce precipitation totals. While warm
air advection will likely keep precipitation mostly rain for the
majority of Southwest Alaska, colder air lingering in Southcentral
could mean that lower elevation areas may see snow.

-KC


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A frontal system continues to move northeast into
Southcentral today bringing rain into the terminal. Low level
temperatures have remained warm overnight and will continue
through the day today keeping rain the main precipitation type.
Low level wind shear is possible through this afternoon. Mostly MVFR
conditions will prevail through Tuesday afternoon. Cooler air
moves over the terminal this evening leading to  a change to
snow/rain mix into Tuesday morning as a low moves through the
Northern Gulf.



&&


$$