Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXAK68 PAFC 060034
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday morning)...

A vertically stacked low over Kodiak Island will transit the
northern Gulf this afternoon, lingering near Prince William Sound,
and weakening through early Wednesday. Shower activity over
Southcentral will also begin to decrease in coverage and intensity
during this period. While road surfaces are wet, daytime high
temperatures in the mid to high 40s and nighttime lows in the mid
to upper 30s should be high enough to prevent icy conditions,
except for the Copper Valley and local cold air drainages, where
temperatures may drop a few degrees below freezing.


Tuesday into Wednesday, an inverted upper-level trough extending
from a low in the Beaufort Sea will drop across the Alaskan
interior. Beneath this feature, a weak shortwave will approach
Southcentral from the northwest. This has the potential to boost
cloudy conditions and bring additional showery activity across the
region through Wednesday. Temperatures aloft will also begin to
cool with this shortwave increasing the chances for light snow at
higher elevations. The most likely place for snow to reach road
level on Wednesday will be north of Chulitna toward Windy Pass.
Conditions become dryer from late Wednesday into early Thursday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Monday through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

* Southwest Alaska and Alaska Peninsula: Trending colder. Breezy
  along the coast, with scattered showers.

* Bering Sea and Aleutians: Breezy with scattered showers through
  Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, winds increase from west
  to east as a strong storm develops. Parts of the Bering Sea and
  Aleutians will likely see gusts as high as 60 to 80 kt with
  this storm, as well as seas up to 30 ft and heavy rain.

* Stay tuned to the forecast. Confidence continues to increase in
  a strong midweek storm, but uncertainty remains with the exact
  track and where the strongest winds and highest impacts will
  occur.

Discussion:

Much of the weather over the next 24 hours will be dominated by a
broad upper low centered over Bristol Bay. As the low gradually
exits eastward into the Gulf, cold air advection at its flank will
bring gradually decreasing temperatures for Southwest Alaska, with
overnight lows gradually dropping into the 20s through midweek.
For the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutian Islands, cold air moving
over relatively warm ocean waters (SSTs 7-10 degrees Celsius) will
spur scattered rain showers, as well as gusty winds through gaps
and passes on the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula.
Additionally, a strong shortwave trough diving south across the
Bering Sea and across Adak will bring a slight (about 10%) chance
for thunderstorms from this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

By Tuesday afternoon, attention shifts toward a developing storm
system in the Western Bering. Confidence has increased with this
storm, but there remains uncertainty with exactly how the
different pieces will come together. The first will be a low near
Kamchatka Peninsula, which will push its front into the Western
Bering from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. By
Wednesday morning, the remnants of Typhoon Choi-wan will curve
north across the North Pacific and into the Bering Sea.

The latest 500 mb guidance continues to show these two systems
interacting as a deeper upper low develops over the bering Sea
Wednesday into Thursday. Models are in better agreement with the
overall setup, but differences remain with the exact track and
strength of the low. This will be important for where the
strongest winds set up and how long they last across the Western
Bering and Aleutians from Amchitka to Attu.

While the location of the strongest winds remain uncertain,
forecast confidence remains fairly high (60 to 70 percent) that
sustained winds will exceed 50 kt and gusts will reach 70 kt or
greater from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A period of
hurricane-force winds is also possible across portions of the
western and central Bering Sea and Aleutians as the storm
strengthens. No matter the exact track, most of the Bering Sea
from about the Pribilof Islands west will likely see a period of
at least gale-force winds. Seas could build to around 30 ft, with
periods of heavy rain possible.

By Thursday, the upper low will remain over the Bering Sea while
the system and its front begin to push farther east. Strong winds
will continue across portions of the Bering Sea and Aleutians,
though there remains uncertainty with exactly where the strongest
winds will set up. The front will continue east toward Southwest
Alaska, bringing increasing winds and precipitation toward the
Southwest coast. The exact timing and strength of these impacts
will depend on how quickly the system progresses eastward.

-LM/KC


&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long term begins with a broad and deep upper low (former
typhoon Choi-Wan) over the Gulf of Anadyr and a fairly high
amplitude ridge over the southern mainland. Through the weekend
the pattern will amplify rapidly, pushing a strong jet streak over
Southwest on Saturday and Southcentral on Sunday. This jet streak
will bring at atmospheric river to the AOR, particularly over
Southcentral. A strong shortwave will move south to north through
the jet into Southcentral overnight Saturday into Sunday. This
will increase winds along the north Gulf coast and produce heavy
rain throughout the Sound and potentially inland areas of
Southcentral. The east/west positioning of this feature remains
uncertain and will be important for the focused area of heavy
rainfall. Forecast uncertainty decreases notably on Monday, with a
large divergence in the two main models EC/GFS. On the GFS the
upper trough takes on a negative tilt, which would focus the AR
back onto Southcentral (and potentially Southwest), while the EC
keeps the primary jet more towards Yakutat and Southeast. Another
round of moderate rain is likely Monday regardless, but the
farther west shift would mean another focused period of heavy
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Off and on rain showers will continue through tonight and
Tuesday morning before shower activity eventually tapers off late
morning at the end of the TAF period. Cloud ceilings will bounce
around between IFR and VFR. However, the lowest of the ceilings
will be confined to the Chugach Range with VFR and MVFR more
prominent towards the terminal. A scattered IFR deck less than
1,000 may become broken at times during the rest of the day and
through tonight. Wind-wise, expect winds to remain and variable
through the TAF period.

&&

$$