Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

275
FXAK68 PAFC 140100
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tuesday through Thursday evening)...

Continued rain, and higher elevation snow, showers will continue
across portions of Southcentral Alaska as an upper-level
shortwave and surface trough move inland from the northern Gulf
coast this morning. Precipitation associated with these systems
has consolidated to the northern Gulf coast, primarily around
Prince William Sound. Areas farther inland, including Anchorage
and the Mat-Su Valleys, may experience more intermittent
precipitation due to weak cross barrier flow. Snow levels will
remain an important forecast consideration, particularly across
higher elevations, where around 4 to 8 inches of snow may be
possible at Thompson Pass tonight through early Wednesday morning.

By Wednesday morning, a new stronger low pressure system is poised
to enter the northern Pacific Ocean, pushing a strong front with
high moisture content into Kodiak Island by the early morning.
Rainfall will begin initially light over Kodiak City early in the
morning, becoming heavy by 10am Wednesday. This heavy rainfall is
expected to persist through at least Thursday morning, potentially
leading to ponding on roadways and flooding of poor drainage
areas. A rise in water levels of the rivers and streams is
expected, but not a significant enough rise to expect widespread
flooding concerns.

By Wednesday afternoon, the front will reach the Southcentral
mainland, spreading an initial push of widespread rainfall closer
to sea level, and snow for higher elevations, including areas such
as Thompson Pass. With strong easterly flow, most of the
precipitation is expected along the Western Prince William Sound
and Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Similarly to Kodiak, this is expected
to be a fairly prolonged precipitation event, with Whittier and
Seward expected to get 1 to 3 inches of new rainfall through
Thursday evening. Thompson Pass is expected to remain warm and/or
dry enough to stave off the push of snowfall until a secondary
surge of moisture beginning late Thursday morning. Through
Thursday, Thompson Pass may see a period of light blowing snow,
however not expected to be enough to significantly reduce
visibility. Through Thursday, Thompson Pass may see up to around 4
inches of new snowfall.

Anchorage, Mat-Su, Western Kenai, and the Copper River Basin are
expected to remain relatively dry through this event, with the
exception of a few rain showers potentially persisting over the
mountains. With the incoming cloud cover from the new storm,
expect temperatures to be fairly insulated, meaning relatively
cooler high temperatures and warmer low temperatures through the
end of the workweek.

-CL

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A north Pacific low deepens and moves toward the Eastern
Aleutians/AKPen before stalling south of the Alaska Peninsula
Thursday morning. As the front crosses the Eastern Aleutians
Wednesday morning the low continues to deepen, down to 972 mb by
Wednesday afternoon. A robust area of small craft to gale- force
winds spread across the southeastern Bering Sea and Bristol Bay
through Thursday morning. Northerly winds, particularly through
bays and passes, from Dutch Harbor eastward to King Cove have a
70% chance of exceeding 50 mph and a 30% to 50% chance of
exceeding 60 mph early Wednesday overnight into Thursday before
the low slowly pivots east towards the Gulf.

Across the Southwest Mainland, expect gusty easterly Gap winds,
as well as gusty offshore winds for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and
Bristol Bay coast through Thursday afternoon. Slightly colder and
drier conditions are expected as northerly continental flow fills
in behind the low on Friday.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A low in the Gulf of Alaska will keep scattered rainfall for
Kodiak Island and the Southcentral Coast. Higher elevations will
likely see snowfall with snow levels at 1500 to 2000 ft. For
Southwest Alaska, gap winds over the Unalaska area and Alaska
Peninsula quickly diminish as the low moves east by Saturday.
Ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and
potentially low stratus or fog. Uncertainty with the low`s
location is present on Saturday, with more or less rain and snow
possible for the coast depending on the low`s exact position. On
Saturday night/Sunday morning, a frontal system moves into the
Bering, leading to rain and elevated winds over parts of the
Aleutians, but exactly which part is uncertain for now.
Southcentral dries out on Sunday as the low is absorbed by a new
low moving into Southeast Alaska. A strong North Pacific low is
poised to move south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Monday,
which would bring gusty winds and rainfall to the Unalaska and
Nikolski area. Precipitation returns to Southcentral as soon as
Sunday night and additional moisture associated with the low will
lift across the northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island Monday,
producing moderate to heavy rainfall at times.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Winds remain light and variable. There is about a 30
percent chance that a stray shower could move over the terminal
and briefly drop ceilings into MVFR. Ceilings could drop further
overnight, as low as 500 to 1500 ft, as lingering moisture leads
to the development of low stratus. By Wednesday afternoon,
ceilings will increase to VFR as southeasterly winds move through
Turnagain Arm and the Chugach mountains. There is a low
probability (30 percent) of low level wind shear developing late
Wednesday as surface winds increase to 10 to 15 kts from the
northeast and easterly winds develop over the mountains.

&&

$$