Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

235
FXAK68 PAFC 031423
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
523 AM AKST Tue Feb 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Thursday night)...

The dominant feature in satellite imagery this morning is a very
large closed low circulation centered over the North Pacific
(about 500 miles south of the Alaska Peninsula), with a strong
southerly jet stream and atmospheric river pointed toward the
eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska. A strong short-wave trough is
entering the southern Gulf this morning with an area of upper
level diffluence just ahead of it. At the surface, a triple point
low has developed and is tracking westward across the southern
Gulf while a warm front spreads north and west across the Gulf.
Widespread gale force winds are being observed ahead of the front
across much of the Gulf coastal waters, with winds continuing to
strengthen ahead of the front. Gap winds and ridegtop winds are
also strengthening across Southcentral. Steady rain is noted on
Middleton Island radar spreading toward the Gulf coast and Kodiak
Island. Conditions are dry for the moment inland. Temperatures are
near or above freezing across most of the region. The one notable
exception is the Copper River Valley where single digit
temperatures prevail.

The aforementioned upper level short-wave will elongate and shear
apart as it approaches Southcentral today, as a portion rotates
westward over-top of the North Pacific low and a portion heads
northward with the jet stream. However, with a strong frontal
system headed onshore and high environmental moisture, there will
be moderate precipitation for the coastal zone, with anywhere from
half an inch to 2 inches of rain (and locally higher amounts of
snow-liquid in the mountains). Dry low level air inland combined
with downslope flow will initially keep most of the western Kenai,
Anchorage, and Mat-Su dry. Light precipitation will spread inland
this afternoon and evening with the remnant short-wave and rapid
weakening of the surface front as it pushes onshore (weakening the
downslope flow and shifting low level winds from easterly to more
southerly). With a complex set of weakening features headed
inland, it is quite challenging to identify the best window of
time for precipitation, but it will be light and brief for most
areas. Temperatures will warm above freezing for lower elevations
except for portions of the Copper River Basin, with precipitation
falling primarily as rain. There is potential for some light
freezing rain where temperatures do remain at or below freezing,
which is most likely in the Willow area as well as the southern
Copper River Basin.

The upper level short-waves will exit to interior Alaska tonight
into Wednesday, bringing an end to precipitation for all except a
few upslope areas. There will be a brief push of southeasterly
winds this evening into the overnight hours, including Turnagain
Arm into Anchorage. This will warm temperatures to near 40
degrees. However, as winds die down overnight into Wednesday
morning temperatures will drop back to near freezing. Attention
will then shift to a new low tracking out of the east Pacific.
Model guidance continues to show a large spread in solutions and
run-to-run continuity is not good. The latest runs have trended
toward a deep low entering the eastern Gulf Wednesday and rapidly
weakening as it curves westward Wednesday night. Held off on any
changes to the forecast for Wednesday and beyond due to the high
level of uncertainty. It does seem like this storm will primarily
impact the Gulf waters, with perhaps just a glancing blow to the
Gulf coast. The upper low currently in the North Pacific will
open up into a trough and track to Southcentral Wednesday night
through Thursday, brining another round of low elevation rain and
mountain snow to coastal areas and likely little or no
precipitation inland. The upper level pattern after this looks
quite chaotic, with a plethora of short-wave troughs embedded in
a very large and broad trough, so stay tuned to the forecast for
later in the week.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This morning through Friday morning)...


An upper level disturbance from the North Pacific will move in
moisture and warmer air aloft over Southwest AK today. A Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued for the Bristol Bay coast and
inland Bristol Bay to highlight the threat of freezing rain today.
Up to one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation is possible from
Dillingham north to Koliganek, including New Stuyahok. Models have
trended this wave slightly drier and delayed its progression over
the region in recent runs.

Southerly to southeasterly flow will warm the region to above
freezing by late this evening, transitioning any remaining
precipitation to rain. A wintry mix is possible for the Kuskokwim
Delta coast on Wednesday as a reinforcing wave pushes northwest.
Coastal communities from Kipnuk to Toksook Bay and Mekoryuk may
experience light freezing rain mixing in, although all
precipitation should remain light and short lived.

The coldest area of the domain will be the central/western Bering
Sea, as well as the Central/Western Aleutian Chain, thanks in
part due to cold northern flow from Russia. This cold northerly
flow will continue through much of the week as snow shower
activity also continues. The front of a North Pacific low will
pivot westward across the southern Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday
bringing snow turning to a rain/snow mix to locations such as Cold
Bay and Nelson Lagoon. This feature will help to enhance snow
showers across Adak and Atka through Thursday as the surface low
lifts into the Bering by then. By Thursday evening, an occluded
low near the Kamchatka Peninsula sends its front to the vicinity
of the Western Aleutians by then. Due to this low being in its
occluded/weakening phase, cold air looks to remain in place across
Shemya for snow showers to be maintained.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

Late this week, the upper-level longwave pattern appears fairly
similar to today with a ridge over western North America extending
up into mainland Alaska with a broad, complex low pressure system
sitting several hundred miles south of Kodiak Island. The main
difference will be that deep longwave troughing over the far
western Bering Sea will promote a much stormier pattern heading
into the weekend and early next week. The complex low south of
Kodiak Island lifts into the Gulf through the weekend, bringing
wet, rainy weather along the coast from the Pacific side of the
Alaska Peninsula up to the north Gulf coast. A deformation band
associated with troughing to the north/northwest of the low may
allow precipitation to spread into the southern mainland in the
form of rain, freezing rain, or possibly snow for the coldest
locations.

The main feature to track in the long term, however, is a compact,
moderately-deep low moving up from the North Pacific into the
vicinity of the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula on Sunday. This
low, depending on track, could lead to various hazards across the
Aleutians, Bering Sea, and Southwest Alaska, including high winds
and blowing snow/blizzard conditions. Strong winds will be
associated with a sting jet on the south side of the low, which
has the potential to bring 75 mph wind gusts to the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula if the track shown by the EC and
GEM verifies. However, the alternative solution shown by the GFS
keeps the low south of the peninsula, which would spare the region
from the strongest winds and impacts. There is a decent potential
for the low to track into the Bering Sea, though, towards
Southwest Alaska. The low looks to quickly lose its tap of warm
air as it moves north, which means precipitation mainly in the
form of snow along the Southwest Alaska coast would be easily
blown around leading to significantly reduced visibility. As the
track is uncertain at this point, there is low confidence in the
resulting impacts at this lead time. The active storm track
continues into next week with another compact low developing south
of the Aleutians on Monday, with further potential to skirt the
Aleutians or track north into the Bering Sea.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period
with generally light northerly winds... Morning radar shows some
weak returns over the Turnagain Arm and Cook Inlet, though
precipitation is likely not reaching the ground as there is a dry
layer b/w 1000 and 5000 ft. That said, light rain chances increase
by late morning and will persist into this evening with with the
approach and passage of a trough into Southcentral. Expect
southeasterly winds gusting from 25 to 35 mph for a two to four
hour period starting around 09z as the pressure gradient briefly
tightens. Into Wednesday morning winds become light and northerly
again while precipitation chances come to an end.

BL

&&


$$