Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXAK68 PAFC 031331
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
531 AM AKDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday night)...

A strong low south of Kodiak island is pushing a front into the
north Gulf coast early this morning. While much of interior
Southcentral has seen clear skies and below freezing temperatures
overnight, this front will spread clouds across the region this
morning. Kodiak Island has seen strong winds and periods of heavy
rainfall throughout the night and this rain and wind will be
making its way across Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula this morning. This sets up some potential for snowfall
this morning along the Seward Highway from Summit Pass through
Turnagain Pass due to the below freezing overnight temperatures.
While temperatures will rise above freezing by mid morning, the
front may overspread this areas before it warms enough for rain.
Therefore, there is the potential for a little snowfall along the
Seward Highway in the interior of the Kenai Peninsula before it
warms up this morning. Once it does so, precipitation type will
remain all rain through the weekend. Other areas around Prince
William Sound, including Whittier, could see a brief rain/snow mix
with the onset of precipitation this morning, but it is not
expected to accumulate at sea level and will quickly turn to all
rain with the warmer air moving in from the south with this low.
Anchorage and other more interior portions of Southcentral are
expected to mostly downslope out of the rain today(though there
may be a periodic light rain that makes it over through
mountains). As the low moves northward through Sunday, its
pressure gradient will weaken and winds will diminish which will
allow the rain to overspread the rest of Southcentral for Sunday.

Also on Sunday, a large Bering Sea low will move eastward and absorb
the current Gulf low Sunday night. this Bering Sea low will track
to Kodiak Island early Monday morning. This will reinforce the
rainfall as the moisture from the original low will remain over
Southcentral with colder air aloft, bringing widespread shower
activity to the region, especially along the coast. There is lower
confidence for precipitation to linger for interior portions of
Southcentral on Monday as well (40% chance). As colder air aloft
moves over the Gulf, and warmer temperatures from the system this
weekend remaining at the surface, some instability looks to be in
place. A few isolated thunderstorms may occur in the Gulf on
Monday (20-30% chance).


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A 970 mb Kamchatka low is making its way across the Western
Aleutians this morning. A broad, occluded front extends well east
of the low and is already overspreading the Pribilof Islands.
While dry and cool conditions will be the norm for Saturday across
Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula, unsettled weather will
make some noise over the Bering and Aleutians.

Along the front, southerly small craft winds with gusts to over
30 knots will gradually shift east through the morning hours,
clipping Unalaska by midday. The same front will begin to weaken
this afternoon with south to southeast winds diminishing before
reaching the Southwest coast of Alaska. The more substantial winds
are forecast behind the front, as the parent low slides over the
Western Aleutians during the morning hours today. Westerly gales
with gusts from 50 to 55 knots are forecast across the Rat Islands
by late morning and then gusts up to 50 knots are forecast for
Adak and Atka this afternoon and evening. The south side of the
low will be aided by a 180 kt 300 mb jet before the jet drops
south of the Aleutians and the parent low continues across the
southern Bering Sea.

In addition to winds, widespread showers are forecast over the
Aleutians and much of the Bering as the low and front push east
through Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the
southern end of the front as it tracks over the Western and
Central Aleutians on Saturday, and also beneath the center of the
low where temperatures aloft will be cooler.

By Sunday, what remains of the front will push into the western
Gulf of Alaska and inland of Bristol Bay. Lingering showers will
continue across the Bering an Aleutians and low pressure reaches
the Alaska Peninsula. Northerly flow develops behind the low with
precipitation gradually clearing out over the Bering into Monday.
Meanwhile, precipitation chances will increase over Southwest
Alaska, especially south of the Kilbuk Mountains into the Greater
Bristol Bay region, as moisture and upper-level support move into
the region. Warmer temperatures from southerly flow will preclude
snow chances for all but the higher elevations.

By day 3 on Monday, high pressure begins to move into the Bering,
winds begin to diminish region-wide, and precipitation begins to
clear out for Southwest Alaska as low pressure shifts completely
into the Gulf of Alaska.

BL


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The long-term weather pattern across Southern Alaska, The Gulf of
Alaska, and the Bering Sea will remain on the active side. There
is good agreement between guidance that a low will remain in the
Gulf for Tuesday and Wednesday before it moves off the east
towards Southeast Alaska for Thursday. This will mean that steady
rain will continue for Prince William Sound, the Eastern Kenai
Peninsula, and the northern Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday
before it tapers off to showers for the second half of Wednesday.
Rain will make it inland to the Western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, the Mat-Su Valleys, and Copper River Basin. However,
rain that makes it inland with this system Tuesday and Wednesday
will be more showery and not as steady as it will be on the coast.
Showers linger across Southcentral for Thursday, but steady rain
will have moved to Southeast Alaska by then. Attention then turns
to a strong Bering Sea front that is poised to move into the
Southwest Gulf for Friday. Confidence is low on its strength
however. Kodiak Island will be the first to see gusty southeast
winds and rain from this system with moisture also being pulled
back into the Eastern Kenai Peninsula ahead of the front on Friday.

Across Southwest Alaska, a relative lull in the active pattern is
expected Monday into Tuesday as winds gradually diminish across
the Aleutians and AKPen.

Attention then turns to a potentially stronger North Pacific low
approaching the Aleutians Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence is
around 50 to 70 percent that this system will impact the region
Thursday into Friday but only 30 to 40 percent in the exact track
and magnitude of the strongest winds. Current guidance suggests
gusts could reach 50 to 60 mph across portions of the Aleutians
and AKPen Thursday into Friday. Small changes in the low track
could significantly shift where the strongest winds and heaviest
precipitation occur.

LM


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...An approaching front will increase northerly winds this
morning which will then persist into Sunday. VFR conditions are
expected to persist through Saturday night even as showers move
into the vicinity with east-northeast winds aloft bringing enough
cross-barrier flow to downsloping winds. This should remain the
case until Sunday morning when the winds aloft diminish and deeper
moisture increases the chance for rain and lower ceilings.


&&

$$