Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

687
FXAK68 PAFC 021338
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKDT Wed Sep 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Gusty offshore winds today with the strongest winds along the
  coast and through gaps and passes.

- Light snow showers (little to no accumulation) could fall (30 to
  60 percent chance) near higher elevations and passes in the
  Copper River Basin (Eureka/Tahneta, Paxson, Mentasta) before
  transitioning to rain and ending this afternoon.

- A pattern change ahead with increasing chances for
  precipitation as we head into the weekend.

Discussion:

Cold temperatures in the 30s returned this morning with the
coldest prone locations hitting around freezing in the western
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Matanuska Valley. The frost
advisory will remain in effect until 9AM AKDT this morning
(Wednesday). Temperatures are expected to trend to more seasonable
temperatures for the last half of the week as high clouds start
to filter across Southcentral.

A trough from the Interior is sinking south and could bring some
scattered showers to portions of the Copper River Basin later this
morning into the early afternoon. While chances for precipitation
are largely in the 20 to 30 percent range, higher chances up to
60 percent exist near Paxson, Mentasta Pass, and Eureka/Tahneta
Pass. Should precipitation fall, it would likely be start off in
the form of snow. Very little accumulation is expected. As
temperatures warm later in the morning however, any leftover
precipitation will change over to rain before ending this
afternoon.

Gap winds, especially through Whittier and Seward, will remain
elevated today as flow remains out of the northwest. Winds are
expected to gradually diminish tonight and Thursday as a ridge
builds across the area. Thursday will be another nice day across
Southcentral as the pattern transitions to onshore flow and
moisture from the Pacific moves into the area. The ridge will
shift eastward, propagating into Yukon, Canada Thursday and
Friday. This will the open the door for southerly to south-
southwesterly flow aloft through Friday. At this time, the ridge
is trending a little stronger, despite its slight eastward jog.
Most of the precipitation associated with a low in the Bering will
remain confined across Southwest Alaska through Friday.
Therefore, the timing for when rain makes it into Southcentral has
been pushed back to Friday night into Saturday morning as opposed
to an earlier rain arrival Friday afternoon. Models are still
struggling to align on the timing of the precipitation. Past
Friday though, our forecast looks unsettled and wet. Enjoy the
nice couple of days ahead before the weather pattern turns more
active heading into the weekend and beyond!

Rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The overall weather pattern remains largely unchanged. A front
extending off a low in the western Bering stretches across the
Southwest coast, bringing continued precipitation this morning.
The front and associated precipitation is expected to weaken and
exit to the north by this afternoon. A second front is currently
located over the Central Aleutians just west of a broad area of
high pressure. The front will push eastward over the next 48 hours
towards Southwest Alaska, forcing the ridge eastward toward the
Gulf of Alaska. Widespread small craft winds are expected across
much of the Bering Sea, with a core of gale force winds moving
across the Central Aleutians, Eastern Aleutians, and southern
Alaska Peninsula over the next couple of days. Cold Bay in
particular will see greatly enhanced south-southwesterly winds
ahead of the front. There remains some uncertainty with just how
strong the winds will get, as a southeasterly wind is preferable
for strong Cold Bay winds. However, with the strong front and
tighter pressure gradient between the trough and ridge, wind gusts
60 to 70 mph are possible.

The front weakens to a high end small craft front with gusts to
gale force later Thursday morning as it closes in on Southwest
Alaska, and in particular, the Kuskokwim Bay region. This raises
another concern as a somewhat lengthy fetch of strong southerly
winds blows towards the Kuskokwim Delta Coast. Areas of the
coastline that are perpendicular to the southerly wind direction,
such as Kwigillingok, have the best chance to seeing impacts with
this front, with current P-ETSS guidance showing water levels
reaching anywhere from 1 to 1.5 feet above the normal highest tide
line. While actual coastal flooding is of low concern at this
time, the focus and messaging with this system is coastal erosion
coupled with high surf potential. Strong southerly winds will
continue through Thursday afternoon and evening and finally start
to decrease early Friday morning. A round of rainfall will
accompany the arrival of this front, with much of the Kuskokwim
Coast and Delta on track to see up to 0.5 inch of rainfall, with
higher amounts farther south along the Western Capes.

KM/AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long-term forecast looks on track, as an active pattern
persists across the Southern Mainland, Bering Sean, and Aleutian
Chain due to a ridge axis sliding east over the Alaska Panhandle,
and a complex low pressure system spinning about in the central
Bering Sea.

Across Southcentral Alaska, the aforementioned ridge will move
east to the Alaska Panhandle with relatively quiet weather
holding on for eastern Prince William Sound and the Copper River
Valley to start the weekend. As the ridge moves east, it will
open the door to southwest flow aloft. Steady rain from Southwest
will move into Southcentral from west to east through Saturday as
a plethora of shortwaves lift up and over the area from North
Pacific and Gulf. Showers continue over Southwest, the Aleutian
Chain, and Southcentral for Saturday as a broad upper-level
trough remains in the Bering and southwest flow aloft remains
across Southcentral.

A series of several shortwaves spinning around the complex low in
the Bering will move from the Bering into Southwest Alaska through
Saturday. By late Saturday into Sunday morning, a compact low
moving east across the North Pacific will swing northward,
lifting toward the Alaska Peninsula. Model agreement is poor
regarding the progression of this feature, and how it may interact
with other shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft and propagating
northward. However, there is some agreement that this feature may
maintain its strength as it lifts north with gusty easterly winds
and area of heavy rain for the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay
areas as well as Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf and
Southcentral coast late Sunday through late Monday. Stay tuned.

-TM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$