Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

443
FXAK68 PAFC 140038
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 PM AKST Fri Nov 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A complex upper-level weather pattern will persist over the
region through early next week. Longwave troughing in the Bering
Sea hedges east as inverted troughing in the Gulf of Alaska tracks
west. A snow band will set up and stall over Anchorage/Kenai
Peninsula tomorrow afternoon through Sunday bringing rounds of
moderate to heavy snowfall. There is moderate uncertainty as to
where the snow band will ultimately end up, resulting in lower
confidence for snowfall amounts.

 *Low/High end values are as follows:
 - Anchorage/Eagle River & western Kenai Peninsula: 2-4" (Low end)
   / 6-10" (High end). Higher elevations: up to a foot possible.
 - Seward: 1-3" (Low end) / 3-6" (High end).
 - Turnagain Pass to Moose Pass: 7 to 11" possible.
 - Portage: 9-11" with snowfall rates of up to 1" an hour.

Warmer temperatures filters in Sunday afternoon from east to
west, transitioning snow to rain. Snow will likely change quickly
to rain for coastal areas, but could linger as a wintry mix of
snow, rain, and freezing rain for higher elevations of the Seward
Highway. Snow may also end as a brief period of freezing rain from
Anchorage to Kenai as the warmer air moves over the coastal
mountains.

KM/TM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

More of the same weather continues for the Bering Sea as
northerly to northwesterly flow in the wake of an upper trough
situated along the Southwest Alaska coastline is producing cold
air advection driven snow showers. These snow showers are
generally moving from north to south across the Bering towards the
Aleutian Chain. For the Bristol Bay region, light snowfall
continues for the northern Alaska Peninsula for areas like King
Salmon as precipitation spills over from an inverted surface
trough draped across the western Gulf. Northwesterly gap winds are
on track to increase late this afternoon and evening for the
Alaska Peninsula, with gales on the Pacific side of the Peninsula
coming out of Chignik and Wide Bay by early Saturday morning as
surface ridging builds to the west, enhancing the pressure
gradient from troughing over the western Gulf to the east. A
return of misty and foggy conditions for the Kuskokwim Delta and
Kuskokwim Delta Coast is on track for Saturday morning. This fog
will be advection fog as there again will be marine influence to
allow fog to settle north of the Kuskokwim Mountains for areas
like Bethel.

A low end gale force low pressure system enters the western
Bering Sea also by Saturday morning, bringing a round of mostly
rainfall with some snow on its front`s leading edge. A tongue of
relatively warmer air south of the front`s triple point will work
its way eastward across the Bering with the system progression and
increase snow levels to as high as 1600 feet, allowing for pre-
frontal snow to change to rain. Models continue to show this low
pressure system deepening Sunday morning, yielding a swath of
solid northwesterly to westerly gales on its western periphery.
These winds are on track to arrive to Adak and Atka Sunday
morning, and then as the low drives/pivots southward closer to the
Aleutian Chain, and the strongest winds are most likely to stay
west of Unalaska. Alaska Peninsula high end small craft to gale
force gap winds reinvigorate and become more widespread as the low
departs Monday morning. Keeping an eye on Cold Bay in this
synoptic setup, as a northwesterly wind aligns with the gap and
winds can be greatly enhanced there. By Monday afternoon, a
stronger gale to storm force low approaches the Western Aleutians
from the south and then ventures into the southern Bering Tuesday
morning. Stay tuned.

-AM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term pattern looks active with strong systems moving
through the Bering bringing strong winds and precipitation across
mainly Southwest Alaska.

A large, strong low positions itself in the middle of the Bering
on Tuesday. This leads to a large area of storm force and gale
force winds all across the Bering, including the Aleutians. Warm
air advection in front of the low means that most precipitation
will be in the form of rain. Behind the low is cold air advection
which means potentially rain/snow or snow on the backside of the
low. For Southcentral, weaker features will pass through, meaning
that some rain/snow could affect Prince William Sound with higher
uncertainty about other areas regarding precipitation. By
Wednesday, the low`s front will reach the mainland, leading to
gusty winds and rain/snow for inland Southwest Alaska. The front
may also progress into Southcentral Alaska, leading to warming
temperatures, gusty winds, and rain or rain/snow for coastal
areas.

There is much uncertainty of the low`s track on Thursday, with
potential tracks moving northward or southward depending on how it
interacts with the ridge to the east. The most likely track is
that it deflects northward as it runs into the ridge, which will
lead to decreasing wind speeds and precipitation intensity for
both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska. Friday similarly has high
uncertainty with another low or front moving into the Bering,
bringing more gusty winds and precipitation. It is likely the
ridge out east will remain, which will lead to less active weather
for Southcentral Alaska.

-JAR


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light, northerly winds until Saturday
night. We are monitoring the progression and evolution of the next
system that would bring snow, lower ceilings, and lower
visibilities over the terminal by 06Z Sunday.

&&


$$