Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

884
FXAK68 PAFC 031315
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday evening)...

Much of Southcentral continues to reside within a mostly
featureless gap in between larger weather systems this morning.
The low that brought a round of soaking rainfall to Kodiak Island
yesterday has already pulled out into the central Gulf of Alaska,
allowing rain to taper off across the island for now. To the north
over the southern Mainland, widely scattered showers are drifting
slowly southward near a remnant, weak trough axis stalled out near
the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains. Much of the Mat-Su Valleys
and Anchorage Bowl are also a little on the cloudier side compared
to this time yesterday. The latest radar scans from the Kenai
radar reveal a few showers are attempting to move off of the
Chugach Front Range down into Anchorage and Eagle River, so don`t
be surprised to run into some sprinkles sometime this morning.

Thunderstorm chances will look very similar to yesterday, with
the bulk of this potential focused over the northern Copper Basin
and Talkeetna Mountains. The environment in place will look
similar to yesterday, so expect at least a couple of the strongest
storms to produce frequent lighting, gusty winds, and perhaps
some small hail this afternoon. The remainder of Southcentral
should stay drier through this afternoon, though there will be an
increasing threat for scattered showers as the day progresses,
especially near the mountains.

July 4th continues to look wetter and cloudier than most would
likely desire, but the details for rainfall timing and amounts
are still marred by stubborn model inconsistencies. A deep upper
level low is still poised to shift from Southwest into Kodiak
Island by Saturday afternoon, but it now looks like a leading
shortwave trough extending ahead of the low will move up the Cook
Inlet and Kenai Peninsula into the Mat-Su Valleys late tonight
into Saturday morning. This has significantly shifted the
potential start time for rainfall, possibly as soon as 10 PM to
Midnight tonight for parts of the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and
Mat Valley as waves of showers consolidate into steadier rainfall
along the incoming trough axis. On the plus side, there is still a
good chance (roughly 60%) that most of Anchorage, the Mat-Su and
western Kenai Peninsula will mostly dry out by the afternoon of
the 4th as the initial wave weakens and as drier, easterly flow
around the north side of the low picks up. Unfortunately, it will
still be an all-day soaker along the coast from Whittier south to
Seward and Kodiak.

A drier trend will set in by Sunday as the main low moves farther
east out into the Gulf and as prevailing flow begins to shift out
of the northeast, pulling warmer and drier air from the Interior
and Yukon south across the Alaska Range. There will still be
potential for a few afternoon showers, but expect coverage to be
lower compared to prior days.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Sunday)...

Generally cool and cloudy weather will persist through the next
few days. Currently, the upper level pattern features a low moving
across the northern Bering towards the YK Delta, and a ridge
extending across the western Bering. The low will be the primary
feature of interest, as it and its associated surface front will
pivot over Southwest Alaska through today, bringing widespread
rain and breezy onshore winds. The cold air entrained in this low
will lead to colder than normal temperatures for this time of year
along Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula; daytime highs today
and tomorrow will generally be in the high 40s to low 50s for that
area, with overnight lows in the high 30s to low 40s.

One notable change has been the development of a leeside surface
low near Kodiak Island around midday Saturday, as the upper low
and a potent shortwave cross the Alaska Peninsula. As the Gulf low
pulls further east into the Gulf, precipitation will generally
come to an end for most of Southwest Alaska by Sunday morning.
This could pave the way for a return of thunderstorm activity
later that afternoon, as clearer skies will promote diurnal
heating, and as a shortwave transits eastward across the
periphery of the upper low and into Kuskokwim Valley. Sunday will
likely mark the start of a return to warmer temperatures and more
summer-like weather for Southwest Alaska.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, patchy fog will likely
continue as a ridge of high pressure persists across the Bering
Sea. Models have been trending towards a stronger ridge, keeping
the North Pacific low weaker and further south. As such, gales
look less likely along the front as it approaches late Friday
night and stalls along the western tip of the Aleutian Chain.
Another North Pacific low arriving Sunday afternoon looks to have
a better chance at displacing the Bering ridge, and therefore
bringing rain across Unalaska and as far east as the Alaska
Peninsula.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Sunnier and warmer weather for early next week in Southcentral
Alaska. Tuesday evening will start to see increasing clouds,
leading to showers through Thursday from easterly waves out of
ALCAN.

A Bering low near Shemya will begin to proceed eastward north of
the Aleutians and Saint Paul Island. The progression is slowed by
an upper level ridge over the Bering Strait. The low reaches the
eastern Bering by Wednesday and dissipates over the Bering Strait
before Thursday, bringing showers and wind to the Aleutian chain
and Southwest Alaska.

-SS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through this evening. West to
southwest winds moving up Cook Inlet could move into the terminal
later this afternoon, but wind speeds will generally stay around
10 kts or less. Areas of rain showers will likely move in from the
southeast late this evening, potentially giving way to steadier
rainfall overnight. There is some chance ceilings will drop to
MVFR thresholds as rain intensifies overnight tonight.

&&


$$