Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 050508 AAA
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
908 PM AKDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.Update...

The Red Flag Warning for Inland Bristol Bay and Lake Iliamna has
expired.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 PM AKDT Thu Jun 4 2026/

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Surface observations across Southcentral are reporting
temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to the upper 70s / lower
80s. A weak cold front crosses the northern Susitna Valley and
Copper River Valley regions this evening. With temperatures in
the upper 70s and RH values in the low 20% this evening, this
frontal passage could cause sporadic wind gusts as high as 25 mph
through midnight.

Tomorrow, a trough begins to push the ridge of high pressure
eastward. This will bring increased cloud cover and rain showers
for higher elevations of the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley
tomorrow afternoon and evening. More widespread showers across
Southcentral are expected Saturday as the trough digs deeper and
continues to move eastward.

-DJ

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)...

Key Messages:

 * Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for the Inland Bristol Bay
   and Lake Iliamna zones through 9 PM AKDT this evening.

 * A cooling trend, along with elevated minimum relative
   humidities begins Friday and lasts into the weekend across
   Southwest Alaska.

Discussion:

Temperatures this afternoon across much of Southwest Alaska have
over-performed and have warmed well into the mid 70s. Clear skies
prevail across the region as dry and warm air continues to advect
across the region from the Interior. It is not just happening at
the surface, however, as atmospheric sounding data shows a fairly
deep layer of northwesterly flow with dry air aloft that has been
able to make it down to the surface via turbulent mixing.

Friday shows a somewhat different story. As a weak, dry "cold"
front moves southward across Southwest Alaska, it will decrease
thickness values and effectively cool the airmass. A few clouds
will be around tomorrow as well, which will help to shave a few
degrees off of daytime high temperatures. With winds also a touch
weaker for Friday, this will somewhat alleviate fire weather
concerns across Southwest Alaska.

Farther out west, a weak North Pacific low will send its front
northward into Adak/Atka through Friday and will result in a
period of light rain and breezy conditions. Rain should taper off
by Friday evening across the area as the front pivots back to the
southeast. After the front moves away from the Central Aleutian
Chain, higher pressure builds back in with more quiet weather
anticipated across the Bering and Aleutians through the weekend.
The only challenge will be where low stratus and overcast
conditions develop.

Lastly, Shower chances return for portions of Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Valley Saturday into Sunday as a series of weak upper
level shortwaves move overhead.

-AM/DN

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long term forecast for early next week remains generally on
track, with an unsettled pattern in store for much of Alaska.
Synoptically, there will be Arctic troughing over the interior,
ridging over the Bering, and a North Pacific lows tracking through
the Southern Gulf.

The Arctic low meanders over the northern tier of the state, with
shortwave pushes occasionally scraping the southern interior.
Expect intermittent light showery conditions across the mainland
and southern coast, with mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies.
These pushes of cool air will bring temperatures closer to
seasonal averages across much of Southcentral. With persistent
ridging over the Bering, temperatures will likely remain at or
above average for the AKPen and Aleutians, with mostly dry
conditions.

Another North Pacific low will likely build just South of the
Western Aleutians by around Tuesday, however, there remains a
significant amount of model spread regarding the progression of
this system. The GFS solution is an outlier with a much more
progressive track, bringing it into the Gulf by about midweek,
whereas the ECMWF and Canadian model guidance have it just barely
past the Central Aleutians by around the same time.

-CW



AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

FIRE WEATHER...

For Southwest Alaska:

Update...The Red Flag Warning for Inland Bristol Bay and Lake
Iliamna has expired.

Hot, dry, windy conditions will come to an end tonight and
temperatures slowly cool and winds diminish. A dry cold front
sweeping southward from the Interior will help cool the airmass in
place for tomorrow, and an increase in clouds will help to keep
daytime high temperatures a few degrees cooler than they were
today. With weaker winds, cooler temperatures, and relative
humidity recovering for Friday, there is high confidence that fire
weather concerns will decrease Friday and through the weekend.
Upper level energy moves overhead Saturday, increasing shower
chances for the weekend for portions of Southwest Alaska.

For Southcentral: Hot and dry conditions will persist today,
before beginning to moderate for tomorrow. There remains the
potential for northerly winds up to 10-15 mph through the northern
Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin late this
afternoon through tonight. The strongest winds may also occur
during the overnight hours tonight. Therefore, it still looks like
the strongest winds and hottest/driest conditions will not line
up temporally or geographically as the strongest winds are also
expected to be through the higher elevations where conditions will
be slightly cooler and a little more moist.

In the end, there are NOT any Red Flag Warnings out for the
Susitna Valley or Copper River Basin, but conditions will not be
too far removed.

By Saturday, fire weather concerns will have abated across
Southcentral as an upper level trough digs into the area and
brings significantly higher RH values and lower temperatures.


&&

$$