Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

322
FXAK68 PAFC 051446
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKST Thu Mar 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* Expect a gradual trend towards warmer and cloudier conditions as
  incoming storms begin to break down the ridge of surface high
  pressure over the Mainland.

* We continue to monitor a strong low pressure system moving in
  from late Thursday into Friday. Potential hazards include heavy
  snow, blowing snow, and, along the Gulf coast, potential for
  snow to mix with or change to rain.

* Multiple winter weather products have been issued in
  anticipation of the upcoming winter storm. Advisories are in
  effect from late tonight through late Friday night and/or
  Saturday morning for Cordova, Eastern Kenai Peninsula, Kachemak
  Bay, Susitna Valley, Southern Copper Rover Basin, and Thompson
  Pass. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for late Thursday
  night through Friday night for the far Western Kenai Peninsula.


Discussion:

The subtropical jet stream in the Pacific will reorient from the
North Pacific to the Gulf and help steer storm systems quickly
across the Gulf. The first, weaker low as moved into the Gulf
with gusty easterly winds across the northern Gulf and a period of
snow for Kodiak Island, with up to 2-4 inches of accumulation
possible by late this morning for Kodiak City. The easterly flow
across the northern Gulf will also result in snow showers across
Prince William Sound through today.

By late Thursday into Friday, a much stronger storm moves in from
the North Pacific. Forecast confidence has increased with the
general picture and timing of this storm, but there remains
uncertainty. Deterministic models continue to advertise 2
scenarios: the low center moving north over the western Kenai
Peninsula, or the low center tracking along Eastern Kenai
Peninsula and into Prince William Sound. Both scenarios are
equally likely, though our forecast is weighted more toward the
first scenario.

Even though there`s uncertainty with the track of the low, there
are some aspects of the forecast where we DO have moderate to high
confidence. We continue to expect the heaviest snow amounts and
strongest winds along Kenai Peninsula, Turnagain Arm, and Prince
William Sound. The threat of heavy snow and blowing snow will be
greatest in these areas. These areas will also likely see their
temperatures rise to or above freezing for several hours, which
could create difficult travel conditions due to rain on sub-
freezing roads, or rain on snow. Forecast confidence is also
fairly high for Kodiak Island; aside from some minor timing
differences, the modeled low tracks diverge after the low has
mostly moved beyond Kodiak Island.

Where forecast confidence is lowest is mostly along Cook Inlet and
in the interior. Our forecast package is based on the first
scenario, which has lower snow amounts for interior locations. If
the second scenario were to play out, there could be much more
snow (especially in favored downslope areas like parts of Western
Kenai Peninsula, Mat Valley, and Anchorage) than currently
forecast. If you are in these locations, stay tuned to the
forecast as snow amounts could change. Nonetheless, in areas where
snow amounts are a bit more uncertain, there will likely be gusty
winds for a time as the low moves north. Thus, any accumulating
snow will likely result in areas of blowing and drifting snow.
Many of the more inland Winter Weather Advisories incorporate the
potential for blowing snow and reduced visibilities.

As the storm begins to move out of the area, generally expect
improving conditions from Friday night into Saturday. Onshore flow
and an incoming shortwave will lead to continued snow along
Eastern Prince William Sound and the Talkeetna Mountains. If fact,
the latest model runs hint at the overall upper-level trough
stalling over Prince William Sound. If this does happen,
widespread snow showers will remain likely across much of the
coastal mountains as well as the Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys
through Saturday. Strong cold air advection and southwesterly
winds across Southern Cook Inlet and Kachemak Bay may also result
in prolonged snow showers for this region. Stay tuned, as this
scenario may result in additional snowfall for areas around Homer
after the main storm system exits to the east.

Details remain unclear as this period of the forecast will be
highly dependent on which track Thursday/Friday`s low ends up
taking.

-TM/KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Saturday)...

A deep Arctic airmass remains firmly entrenched over mainland
Alaska and the Bering Sea, with northerly flow maintaining the
cold air across the region. The prolonged nature of the pattern
has resulted in growth and advection of sea ice across the
northern and eastern Bering Sea, with the ice edge now having
moved south and west of Saint Paul. Areas of weak stratocumulus
driven showers over much of the Bering Sea this morning will come
to an end this morning as the upper-level support shifts out of
the area.

A strong storm system in the Northern Pacific is approaching
Southern Alaska today. Confidence has grown with regards to the
expected impacts of snow and winds over much of the eastern
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska region. The low
will move over the Alaska Peninsula, and shift quickly and
steadily northeastward across Bristol Bay and the Lake Iliamna
Region. The Alaska Peninsula Blizzard Warning remains in effect,
and a Blizzard Warning has been issued for coastal communities of
Bristol Bay including Dillingham, King Salmon, and Pilot Point.
Given the strength and persistence of the current cold air mass
over the region, confidence is high that precipitation from this
system will remain cold enough for snow, preventing a warm surge
from really infiltrating the southern coastline. These areas
marked with Blizzard Warnings capture the core of the storm
system`s path, and the areas of the most impactful anticipated
conditions. On the peripheries of the system, for areas including
Unalaska, Akutan, New Stuyahok, up to Igiugig, Winter Weather
Advisories have been issued for blowing snow reducing visibilities
to one-half mile at times. Please visit our website for more
information on the relevant Warnings/Advisories for your area.

Following the departure of this main storm system from Southwest
Alaska, deep northerly flow will establish over much of the Bering
Sea and Bristol Bay. This pattern appears to set in place through
the weekend. Given the prolonged northerly flow over much of the
area, by early Saturday morning, Arctic air will reign supreme
across the eastern Bering and Southwest Alaska, leading to another
period of gusty winds and light snow showers that will bring us
into next week. For communities along the Aleutians, these
persistent snow showers along with gusty northerly flow may result
in a prolonged period of blowing snow potential through the
weekend. Severity of potential impacts with this depend on the
passage of the imminent system, as well as local wind patterns
following. Stay tuned.

-CL/AB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. Strong northwesterly flow
and cold air advection will bring a shortwave producing a brief
period of snow to the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula on
Tuesday. High pressure across the Bering and a lingering surface
low in the eastern Gulf increase the potential for strong gap
winds across the Barren Islands and Southern Alaska Peninsula.
Forecast confidence is high that both Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska will continue to see below normal temperatures into the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with northerly winds will continue through
the day. Ceilings will begin to lower tonight as a low pressure
system moves into the Gulf. Conditions could occasionally drop to
MVFR after 15z March 6 if snowfall occurs over the terminal.


&&


$$