Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

455
FXAK68 PAFC 081228
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 AM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave trough over the western Copper River Basin is running
up against a second wave draped over Southwest Alaska and Kodiak
Island this morning. Rain continues across Kodiak Island north to
the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula and across the Talkeetna
Mountains and Susitna Valley. Between these two features, bands of
showers have developed in weak low-level convergence and moisture
advection. A coastal ridge, combined with lower pressure across
Southern Alaska, has allowed southeasterly gap winds to persist,
especially through Turnagain Arm and across West Anchorage. For
Palmer and the Copper River Valley, these winds have diminished
overnight and become less gusty.

The trough over Southcentral will elongate, getting stretched by
both the westerly flow across Southcentral and the trough over
Kodiak Island sliding east into the Gulf of Alaska. This will
allow showers to continue through this afternoon across the
Susitna Valley and eastern half of the Kenai Peninsula. Scattered
showers will also remain possible across the Cook Inlet region.
Southeasterly gap winds will pick back up by around noon, albeit
with less intensity than that of yesterday, across typical
locations.

Models continue to struggle with the evolution and track of the
next shortwave moving from Yukon, Canada over the Alaska Range and
interior Southcentral for Thursday. Placement of the trough will
dictate location of the steadiest precipitation through Thursday.
As of Wednesday morning, the track of this wave looks to be from
Paxson southwest across the southern Susitna Valley.

As the trough and surface low sweep across the Alaska Peninsula
Wednesday and into the southeastern Gulf Thursday, it will pull
the aforementioned trough to the south along with it. Drier and
warmer conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday with most
locations reaching high temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, with
near 70 for Homer, Seward, Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova as a
warmer northerly flow aloft develops along with gusty northerly
gap winds.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday morning)...

A low pressure system in the southeastern Bering Sea continues to
push its front through Southwest Alaska today. As a result,
expect rain to continue across much of Southwest today before it
begins to taper off this afternoon and evening from west to east.
By this afternoon and evening, the low center will have
transferred its energy across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) to form
a new low in the Gulf of Alaska around Kodiak Island.

For Thursday, an upper-level shortwave, originating from the
interior of the state, will drop southward across the Kuskokwim
Valley. Due to the timing of this feature arriving Thursday
morning, the atmosphere looks relatively stable and therefore the
lightning threat will be very low. There is still some uncertainty
on the ultimate track this feature will take. However, as it
appears now, most rainfall from this system will fall from
Sleetmute and east to the Western Alaska Range. Rain tapers off
Thursday night into Friday morning with some leftover showers
lingering along the Western Alaska Range.

The next weather-maker features more uncertainty with regards to
the track and progression of a North Pacific low that is poised to
move along the Aleutian Chain and eventually into the Bering Sea
for the rest of Friday and into Saturday. More on this in a
moment...First off and setting the stage for this North Pacific
low is a relatively strong ridge across the western and central
Bering this morning. This ridge axis, currently centered across
the Western (Shemya) and Central (Adak/Atka) Aleutians, will shift
eastward across to the Eastern Aleutians
(Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan) and Pribilof Islands by Thursday
morning. This will open the door for the North Pacific low
mentioned above to sends its front to Adak/Atka and
Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan by Thursday afternoon and evening. The
strongest winds are expected to be sustained small-craft (with
gale-force gusts) southerly to southwesterlies in the North
Pacific marine zones south of Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan. Expect
light to moderate rain also to accompany this system.

Now for the uncertainty...There details are murky on how far
north this system will lift into the Bering Sea on Friday and its
ultimate track on Friday evening into Saturday with regards to the
mainland Southwest forecast. If the system system remains farther
south along and tracks along the Aleutian Chain, expect the
heaviest rain and gusty winds to remain confined more to the
Aleutian Chain and AKPEN. Conversely, if the system ends up taking
a more northern track into the Bering, expect a more expansive
coverage or rain into the Pribilof Island and into Southwest
Alaska Friday into Saturday. Stay tuned to the forecast as updates
are made and details hopefully become more clear with time on the
track of this system.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long term forecast starts on Saturday with troughing and
frontal systems in the Gulf of Alaska. A front will move into
Mainland Alaska on Saturday, bringing rainfall and elevated wind
speeds. Rainfall is expected in Southcentral by Sunday as
troughing moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Confidence on the
intensity of rainfall is uncertain at this point and could be
lighter or heavier depending on how strong the the fronts are.
Sunday will see an upper level ridge start to build back into the
Bering, the ridge will build through Tuesday, likely leading to
widespread low stratus or fog for the Aleutians and Pribilof
Islands. By Monday, the current thinking is that the upper trough
will move further south into the North Pacific from the Gulf of
Alaska. Once this happens, it is likely that conditions across
Southern Alaska will begin to dry out with lingering showers
remaining. Tuesday will be similar to Monday with skies clearing
out further for mainland Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.
Daytime heating could lead to showers over inland areas.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will persist today,
weakening a bit this morning and then reintensifying this
afternoon. While winds wont be quite as strong as yesterday, gusts
to 25 kts will be possible through much of the day. There will be
showers in the vicinity of the Terminal this morning, with a
chance for a shower to encroach on the terminal. Despite the
rain, VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period.
Turnagain winds will dissipate overnight and a seabreeze will take
over, causing winds to turn southwesterly by mid morning
tomorrow.

&&


$$