Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

897
FXAK68 PAFC 071407
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKST Sat Feb 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Monday night)...

A vertically stacked low sits at the center of a very large cyclonic
circulation extending from the northeast Pacific to the Gulf of
Alaska. A short-wave trough along the northern periphery of this
circulation is tracking westward across the Gulf toward Kodiak
Island. At the surface, a 981 mb low is tracking westward across
the southern Gulf. A weak front (very little thermal gradient)
extends northward from the low center (to the east of Kodiak
Island) then wraps eastward across the northern Gulf. This front
is spreading out to the north and west, with Small Craft Advisory
level winds and rain being observed across Kodiak Island and the
western Gulf coastal waters as well as along the north Gulf coast.
Precipitation is very light.

To the north, a short-wave ridge is in place over Southcentral.
Clear skies have allowed temperatures to drop to the lowest point
in the past several days, with most inland areas sitting in the
single digits to teens. Localized windy conditions coming out of
the Matanuska River Valley across Wasilla have held temperatures
above freezing for a narrow corridor. Meanwhile, increasing clouds
across the Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound areas have
stalled radiational cooling, with temperatures in the 20s to 30s.

The northeast Pacific circulation will shift eastward today, which
will cause the short-wave in the Gulf to be pulled southward
causing the surface low and front over the Gulf to dissipate.
As a result, winds and precipitation will diminish as we head
through the day. Meanwhile, an Arctic trough digging southward
across northern Alaska will induce southerly steering flow over
Southcentral this afternoon and evening, causing moisture and
precipitation to spread inland. Expect light snow to spread
across much of the Copper River Valley, aided by upslope flow
along the Wrangell Mountains. Some precipitation will try to cross
the Kenai and western Chugach Mountains, but with a dry air mass
in place the precipitation will likely evaporate before hitting
the ground. Chances of snow will increase tonight from Anchorage
to the Matanuska Valley as low level southwest flow strengthens
ahead of the Arctic trough.

Forecast confidence then drops significantly Sunday through
Monday, with large model spread in the track of a short-wave
trough currently over the Bering Sea. The track of this short-wave
will then affect how it interacts with the Arctic trough to the
north and whether there is any phasing of troughs into a stronger
feature. No matter which solution materializes, expect
precipitation from eastern Prince William Sound to the Copper
River Basin, with southwest flow and colder temperatures leading
to potentially significant snow accumulation along the Tok Cutoff
up to Mentasta Pass. Mainly rain will continue for coastal
locations, though a slow cooling of the airmass should allow
precipitation to mix with or change to snow in Valdez Sunday into
Monday. The low confidence part of the forecast is the
precipitation forecast for the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the
Mat-Su which will be heavily dependent on the track of the
aforementioned short-wave. Sunday through Sunday night is the most
likely time period for accumulating snow, especially for
Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. The trough(s) will exit
eastward by Monday or Monday night with precipitation diminishing
from west to east across Southcentral.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Key Message: Due to increasing forecast confidence, the Watch was
upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the Central Aleutians (Adak
and Atka) from Sunday morning through Sunday evening. Expect
southeast to southwest winds of 45-60 mph with gusts up to 75-85
mph.

The forecast remains on track, with minor edits to the previous
forecast discussion:

A gale force Kamchatka front sweeps across the Western Aleutians
Saturday morning. The parent low`s corresponding upper low looks
to have vorticity maxima rounding the circulation as the 500 mb
pattern re-orients itself more into a well defined negatively
tilted trough that digs southward over the North Pacific by Sunday
morning. The robust upper level support helps to drive a storm
force low pressure system with hurricane force gusts into Adak and
Atka Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. In anticipation of
this system, a High Wind Warning has been issued for the Central
Aleutians for winds of 45 to 60 mph with gusts up to 75 to 85 mph.
It appears that most of the precipitation associated with the
front will fall in the form of rain, but cold air aloft leading to
falling snow levels in the wake of the front could transition
rain to wet snow for Adak and Atka. Visibilities may be reduced
from sideways snow, but temperatures will be too warm for
significant, sustained visibility reductions.

The story does not end there. As the first system lifts northward
across the Bering, retrogrades northwestward and weakens, a
stronger system is right on its heels. Another lobe of the large
upper level trough complex digs once again, which brings strong
diffluence over the Central Aleutians beginning Monday morning to
midday Monday. This trough digs further, again takes a negative
tilt, and forms a well defined upper level low over the Western
Aleutians. This brings two hazards that we`ll be monitoring in
the coming days: (a) another round of high winds for the Central
Aleutians around the back side of the low, and (b) the potential
for blowing snow and perhaps even blizzard conditions across
Southwest Alaska from late Monday night through Tuesday as the
front sweeps in.

-AM/KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

Starting in the Gulf of Alaska, a once complex low pressure system
looks to weaken and open into a trough centered over the Southern
Gulf. The core of energy looks to be exiting to the east by Monday
morning, leaving Southcentral Alaska in a unsettled pattern
through Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, a front moving over
the Western Alaska Range with some of the model guidance
suggesting a low to form near Kodiak Island then tracking
northeast into mainland Southcentral. Agreement seems fair at this
point for a low to develop. The expected track into Southcentral
may shift, with the general expectation currently being the low
moving over Kenai Tuesday night. A subsequent front moving over
the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday, may develop another low pressure
system near Kodiak again by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Progression of this system is still uncertain, with some solutions
intensifying the low in the northern Gulf through Thursday night.

Looking out west, several low pressure systems associated with the
aforementioned frontal boundaries will enter the Bering Sea early
next week. By Tuesday morning, the second low pressure system
will have crossed into the Central Bering, west of the Pribilof
Islands, and may bottom out. This low has potential to produce
another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong wind
gusts in excess of 75 mph as it entered the Bering previously. By
Wednesday morning, model agreement has improved slightly, with
solutions trending more towards a easterly track. Agreement is
good that the low will gradually weaken shifting slowly and
steadily eastward.

Weak agreement for yet another low pressure system entering the
Southwest Bering by Thursday morning.

CL/LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light and variable winds will persist
through 00Z. MVFR ceilings and light snow move into the terminal
area after 03Z Sunday.

&&


$$