Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

816
FXAK68 PAFC 160310
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
610 PM AKST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

Key Messages:

* Strong northerly winds were slow to come down today but have
  begun to diminish this afternoon and tonight, though not end
  completely for areas prone to channeled terrain/gap winds.

* Exceptionally cold temperatures return to the Copper River
  Basin.

Discussion:

The surface high pressure over Interior Alaska and low in the
eastern Gulf has kept a tight pressure gradient over the region
for much of today. However, winds are starting to come down across
Southcentral this afternoon. Palmer, though, remains quite gusty
with wind gusts still near 65 mph. Even with the pressure
gradient easing some, once these winds through channeled terrain
start, they tend to keep going until the gradient really
diminishes. This looks unlikely to happen over the next few days
with the general pattern not changing much. Therefore, areas such
as Valdez/Thompson Pass and Seward and Whittier will likely still
see windy conditions for the next few days. The Matanuska Valley,
especially near Palmer, is in the same boat with northeast winds
continuing to accelerate through the exit of the Matanuska River
Valley gap for the next few days.

For areas that see the winds diminish completely, expect
temperatures to plunge by 20 to 30 degrees as skies will remain
generally clear. This is especially true for the Copper River
Basin for when winds drop, they could see ambient temperatures as
low as 40 to 50 below zero during nights and early mornings.
Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the Copper
River Basin from tonight through Noon Thursday. Winds look to
return Thursday as a strong Arctic shortwave digs southward across
the Copper Basin, through Valdez/Thompson Pass, and into the
Gulf. The arrival of winds will help to warm temperatures across
the Copper River Basin. This strong shortwave will also help to
further enhance winds through Thompson Pass and into Valdez as
well.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
Days 1 through 3...

The almost perpetual ridge continues to be present in the Bering,
which is allowing for dry conditions across Southwest Alaska.
However, a compact shortwave is making its way through the
eastern Bering, bringing scattered snow/rain showers to the
Pribilof Islands and later, the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. Gusty winds are being seen in the aforementioned areas
due to cold air advection and the shortwave. Temperatures in the
Kuskokwim regions will be in the negatives and negative 10s
tonight due to a cold air mass moving in from the north. Bristol
Bay will see temperatures around zero.

Tuesday has the cold air mass sink further into Southwest Alaska.
This will enhance the gap winds in the eastern Aleutians and
especially the Alaska Peninsula. Winds in communities like Sand
Point, Chignik, and Perryville could see winds gusting to 60 to 75
mph. A High Wind Watch has been issued for these communities due
to this threat of gusty winds. Across the mainland, temperatures
will become even colder with negative temperatures likely for all
of the Kuskokwim Delta and even Bristol Bay. The Kuskokwim Delta
will see ambient temperatures in the negative 10s and negative 20s
in low and calm spots. Wind chills in the Kuskokwim areas will
make temperatures feel like the negative 30s.

Wednesday into Thursday has a shortwave sneaking through the
ridge, allowing for some warm air advection into the East Bering.
This will allow for the gap winds in the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula to decrease in speed, reaching a minimum by
Thursday. Another effect of the shortwave is a band of
precipitation making it all the way into the mainland by Thursday,
bringing snow showers to first the Pribilof Islands, then into
the coastal Southwest Mainland. Looking ahead, it appears that
the strong ridge is beginning to show signs of erosion with more
shortwaves chipping away at it into the weekend. This means that
more active weather could be on its way. Much uncertainty remains,
however, so monitor the forecast for updates.

-JAR

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The highly amplified pattern continues through this weekend. High
pressure centered south of the Aleutian Islands along with low
pressure in the eastern Gulf of Alaska will keep gusty gap winds
persistent across the Alaska Peninsula and through the western
Gulf. Winds in general will be weaker than this past weekend and
early this week, with a messier pattern of weaker shortwave
troughs aloft. Temperatures remain below average across
Southcentral Alaska, with the coldest area being the Copper River
Basin, where ambient temperatures will hover in the range of 30
to 40 below zero. Southwest Alaska, however, will see warmer,
somewhat moist air ride up and over the ridge. A weak disturbance
moving through Southwest Alaska on Thursday exits into the Gulf
on Friday, leaving some lingering upslope snow showers, primarily
along the Kuskokwim Mountains and Western Alaska Range. The
passing wave could also lead to a brief increase in winds out of
gaps. Heading into the weekend, a series of low pressure systems
track up the coast of Far Eastern Russia toward Western Alaska.
This increases chances for precipitation in Southwest Alaska
Saturday night into Monday. Precipitation is likely to be mostly
snow, though rain is possible along the coast, and is increasingly
likely southward along the Alaska Peninsula. By Sunday, these lows
advect warmer air into the area, with temperatures rising into
the 20s and low 30s for much of mainland Southwest Alaska.
Southcentral Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and downsloped in
northwesterly flow, though some isolated snow showers cannot be
ruled out this weekend.

Quesada

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Strong
north/northeast winds will continue to weaken through this
evening but will remain around 10 to 15 kt out of the north
through tomorrow morning.

&&


$$