Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXAK68 PAFC 271255
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3)...

Skies are clear across Southcentral this morning, a near mirror
image of yesterday morning. Calm conditions are noted region-wide
for all but Seward and Whittier. Whittier, in particular, is
experiencing gusts up to 40 mph currently. These gusts will
gradually wind down in intensity through midday, dropping down
into the 20 to 30 mph range through early Saturday, before
diminishing entirely by Sunday morning. Taking a look at the
bigger picture, high pressure will continue to overspread
Southcentral Alaska through the weekend while a trough slides
downstream of the ridge and into the Southeast Alaska coast
Saturday into Sunday. What this means for Southcentral is a
persistence forecast of dry conditions and mildly gusty gap winds
through the usual locations, primarily during the afternoon and
evening hours each day.

The one location that will see anything note-worthy is Kodiak
Island. A large upper low moving into the western Bering will
bring a front into Kodiak Island by Sunday morning with increasing
snow chances. Locations from Akhiok to Kodiak could see anywhere
from 1 to 3 inches of total snow, depending how things evolve over
the next couple of days. There is the potential for a triple
point low to develop along the front, likely south of Kodiak
Island as the front pushes through the southern Gulf through early
Monday. The southern track of the low should keep the rest of
Southcentral Alaska in the clear of any precipitation.

BL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

As of this morning, IR satellite imagery shows a low west of
Shemya and its attendant front with its associated cloud cover
draped across the Bering Sea and Central Aleutians. Temperatures
across much of the Western Bering Sea and Western to Central
Aleutians are in the mid to upper 30s as southerly winds advect
warmer air in behind the front. While the predominant p-type has
been rain, observations show a much colder airmass in place ahead
of the front in part because of the extent of sea ice from the
Pribilofs and points eastward. As the low and front move eastward,
the hi-res guidance shows that snow will start to fill in for the
Pribilof Islands Saturday morning as their entire atmospheric
column will be below freezing with rain for areas to the south and
west. With the global models and high resolution guidance in good
agreement with temperature profiles as arctic air erodes away
through Saturday evening, Saint Paul will most likely see a smooth
snow to rain transition with minimal freezing rain potential due
to the lack of a warm nose. However, even with rain falling on
frozen or mostly frozen ground, conditions still can become slick
and hazardous after snow changes to rain (and then potentially
back over to snow). Snowfall accumulations for the Pribilof
Islands through Saturday afternoon will likely be around an inch.


From there, the front continues to move eastward through Sunday
morning. The front itself wind wise is on the weaker side, though
models show blips of weak upper level waves rounding the base of
the upper level low located to the surface low`s west moving over
the Yukon-Kuskokwim (YK) Delta and Western Capes. The NAM seems
much more in line with the usual "stronger" GFS solutions, while
the EC and Canadian struggle to get even boundary layer winds up
to small craft offshore of the YK Delta Sunday afternoon. With
still some spread in model data, though temperatures will be quite
cold, there is low confidence in blowing snow for the YK Delta
and Western Capes due to marginal winds and the late March sun
angle. Through the day Monday, the low pressure system fully
occludes and the upper low moves southeastward over the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula, bringing light snow to this area.
The system could also clip the southern part of Kodiak Island with
light snow on its way to moving over the Gulf Sunday afternoon to
Monday morning.


-AM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday - Thursday)...

A low pressure system will bring snow to the AK Peninsula on
Monday before transitioning into the Gulf of Alaska. Models are in
reasonable agreement that a relatively strong low will approach
the Aleutians from the north Pacific on Tuesday, bringing rain
strong gale-force easterly winds to much of the chain before the
system slides east and weakens. Otherwise, much of the southern
mainland Alaska will remain dry during this time.

After an extended period of very cold weather, temperatures
approach values near climatologically-average as areas warm into
the 30s for high temps through the first half of the week for much
of southern mainland Alaska.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$