Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

587
FXAK68 PAFC 150046
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 PM AKDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3/Wednesday - Friday evening)...

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall expected for eastern
  Kodiak Island for the rest of today through Thursday morning.

Discussion:

A series of upper-level disturbances will maintain an unsettled
weather pattern across Southcentral Alaska through Friday evening.
An upper-level trough extending across southern Alaska and the
Gulf will support periods of precipitation, particularly along
the northern Gulf Coast, while inland locations experience more
intermittent precipitation.

For today, cyclonic flow aloft and embedded shortwaves moving
through the broader trough will support continued precipitation
across Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince
William Sound. Farther inland, precipitation is expected to be
more scattered, with periods of showers possible. Cooler air
aloft will support snow across higher elevations, including
portions of the Chugach Mountains with snow levels fluctuating as
individual disturbances move through the region.

By Thursday, a more organized upper-level low is expected to move
across the Gulf, maintaining unsettled conditions along the
coast. periods of rain will remain possible across Kodiak Island,
Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound, while precipitation
farther inland will depend on how much moisture is able to push
northward. The associated pressure gradient may also support gusty
winds along coastal areas and through favored gap and passes.
Confidence is moderate in continued precipitation along the coast,
although uncertainty remains regarding precipitation amounts and
the inland extend of moisture.

Heading into Friday, the upper-level low is expected to shift
eastward as additional shortwave energy approaches the western
Gulf. This will maintain opportunities for precipitation across
coastal Southcentral, while inland locations may experience
periods of drier weather between disturbances. Snow will remain
possible across higher elevations, particularly where colder air
aloft overlaps with lingering moisture. Differences in model
guidance become more apparent during this period, particularly
regarding the timing and placement of the next disturbance and
its associated precipitation.

Overall, confidence is moderate (60-70%) in an unsettled pattern
persisting through Friday evening, with the greatest
precipitation potential remaining along the coast. However,
uncertainty remains in model guidance regarding the strength and
track of individual disturbances and their associated impacts
across Southcentral.

-LM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...


Satellite imagery shows a North Pacific low continuing its
approach toward the Alaska Peninsula this afternoon. It will stall
south of Chignik and linger there through Thursday morning. A
front from this low has already pushed across Bristol Bay and the
Southwest Mainland, bringing rain with traces of snow across the
region. There is high confidence this will continue into Friday
morning as cooler air continues to filter into the region.
Snowfall accumulation from a trace up to an inch is expected.

This low will remain fairly compact through Friday evening,
keeping northerly wind gusts strong across the Aleutians from King
Cove west to Dutch Harbor. Gust will be strongest through bays
and passes, and have a 60% chance of exceeding 50 mph, and a 30%
to 50% chance of exceeding 60 mph through Friday afternoon. The
low will then move into the Gulf of Alaska. In its wake, northerly
winds persist over the Central Aleutians. Farther to the west, a
weak meridional ridge will slide eastward over Unalaska and the
Pribilofs by Thursday afternoon and the Southwest mainland by
Friday morning. Beneath the ridge, temperatures for the mainland cool
slightly, with daytime highs in the 30s and nighttime lows into
the mid 20s by Saturday.


&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

High confidence exists in a brief drying trend across Southcentral
on Sunday as lingering Gulf troughing is absorbed by a system
shifting into the panhandle. Farther west, ensemble guidance
suggests a frontal boundary advancing into the Bering Sea on
Sunday, bringing a 50% to 70% chance of rain and elevated winds
across the Aleutians; however, confidence remains low regarding
the exact spatial placement and track of this boundary.

Forecast spread increases heading into early next week, though
clusters consistently favor a potent North Pacific low tracking
south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula late Sunday into
Monday. There is moderate-to-high confidence in gusty, potentially
gale-force winds and steady rain impacting the Nikolski and
Unalaska corridors early Monday. As deep moisture lifts northward
ahead of the system, precipitation chances increase rapidly
across Southcentral as early as Sunday night. The potential for
moderate to locally heavy rainfall remains highest from Kodiak
and the northern Gulf coast through Monday, though specific rain
totals will ultimately hinge on the system`s exact track.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will remain through the period. Northerly
winds of around 5 to 8 kt this afternoon will increase to around
12 to 14 kt overnight. The potential for ceilings dropping in
light rain (virga, not hitting the ground) is around 20 percent
this afternoon as a front sweeps across the region.

Strong easterly winds in Prince William Sound will keep the
airport dry and downsloped through Thursday afternoon, but
conditions remain at VFR (60 to 80 percent).

&&

$$