Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

702
FXAK68 PAFC 011301
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 AM AKST Sun Nov 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This morning through Tuesday evening)...

Benign conditions are prevailing across most of Southcentral and
surrounding areas this morning as a broad mid to upper level
trough slowly drifts east across the southern Mainland and Gulf. A
smaller, weak low embedded within the broader trough`s envelope is
steadily working its way across the southern Gulf, with winds
below small craft intensity encircling the center. Widespread
convective showers are continuing to spread across the Gulf as
well, some of which are moving onshore near Prince William Sound
and the Kenai Peninsula. Some of the strongest updrafts have been
capable of supporting sporadic lighting activity, though this has
been more limited overnight. For the most part, showers have
struggled to make it past the coastline, with most of them
dissipating as the attempt to move inland over the coastal
mountains. Still, a few sprinkles or flurries will remain possible
for the western Kenai Peninsula, Mat-Su Valleys and Anchorage
area today.

Looking towards the outlook for the first few days of November,
things are on track for an increasingly unsettled pattern to take
shape later in the week. Monday will look mostly quite similar to
today as the main upper trough starts to lift north into the coast
and then inland over Southcentral, with continued shower activity
mostly focused over the Gulf and across the greater Prince William
Sound region. Attention will then shift to the next bigger player
in the upcoming pattern by late Monday into early Tuesday. By
Monday night, a strong front associated with a large Bering low
will push up into the Gulf, sending Gale Force winds and rain
north into the southern/central Gulf and much of Kodiak Island.
Easterly winds will also start to pick up over the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains as a northeast to southwest pressure gradient
tightens up ahead of the approaching front farther south.

By Tuesday, forecast confidence for the Gulf frontal system starts
to deteriorate. There is still high confidence (around 90%) that
the front will continue to produce high-end Gale Force winds as it
continues north. However, there is still a fair degree of spread
in model solutions regarding how quickly the front moves north
towards the Gulf Coast. Similarly, there is disagreement regarding
the potential for one or more lows to develop along the boundary
somewhere over the Gulf and move northwest toward Kodiak and the
Barrens. In any case, expect another very wet and windy day across
most of the central and northern Gulf, as well as much of the
coastline between the southern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound. Cross-barier flow will likely be strong enough to keep most
of the Mat-Su, Anchorage and western Kenai Peninsula dry due to
downslope drying through Tuesday evening. Stay tuned for updates
on this next stronger Gulf system as forecast confidence for the
progression of the front improves over the next couple days.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

Key Messages:

* Cold air continues to be in place across Southwest Alaska today
  before eroding on Monday.

* Pattern remains active across the Bering and Aleutians through
  the rest of the weekend and into the new work week. Low tracks
  look to be trending more progressive.

* A renewed push of cold air works into the western and central
  Bering for the middle of the week.

Current satellite this morning shows an upper level trough
remaining in place across Southwest Alaska. Cold air also remains
in place for today. Rain and snow showers eventually begin to
taper off through this afternoon as the trough begins to shift
east and weakens. A shortwave ridge builds in behind the departing
trough for tonight into Monday morning.

Attention quickly turns to the next storm system that is set to
move across across the Bering today through the beginning of the
new work week. Currently, the storm center is between Kamchatka
and Shemya with the front extending through the western and
central Bering and over Adak/Atka. Light to moderate rain in
association with the gale-force front will continue to move east
to the Pribilof Islands, Unalaska/Nikolski, and the southern
Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) this afternoon through this evening.

As the storm center moves along the Western and Central Aleutian
Chain (Shemya/Adak/Atka) tonight through Monday morning, the front
makes it to coastal Southwest by Monday morning. This system
continues to look less conducive for coastal impacts regarding the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast due to the more offshore wind component and
less in the way of a southerly component to the flow. There also
could be enough cold air in place for precipitation to start out
as snow along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Nunivak Island Monday
morning before temperatures warm up with the gusty east-southeast
to southeast flow late Monday morning into the afternoon hours.
Blowing snow looks to be a non-threat due to marginally cold
temperatures at the onset of precipitation.

Cold air wraps into the storm center today through tonight as the
low pressure occludes. This cold air advection into the storm will
help to enhance winds on the southern flank of the low. Sustained
storm-force westerlies are likely along the North Pacific-side of
the Aleutian Chain from Shemya to Adak this evening through Monday
evening. The cold air wrapping into the storm will also increase
instability in the western and central Bering as well. A few
lightning strikes are possible (10 to 30 percent chance) late this
morning through Monday night mostly along the Pacific-side of the
Aleutian Chain where the better jet streak (left exit region)
dynamics will reside.

A point of uncertainty in the forecast pertains to how a triple
point low will spin up along the main front tonight and where this
feature will track. A track of this system closer to coastal
Southwest would favor an enhancement of winds and rain along the
coast while a track farther west and into the Bering would favor
less in the way of stronger winds along the coast. Regardless,
expect gale-force east-southeasterlies in Bristol Bay and
Kuskokwim Bay throughout most of Monday. Most of the rain with
this system will also call along coastal Southwest and the AKPEN
with a drier interior contending with showers at times Monday and
Tuesday.

The entire Bering Sea trough shifts to the central Bering Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Shemya to the AKPEN will remain unsettled as
upper-level shortwaves embedded within the trough will help to
keep showery conditions going there and across the majority of the
Bering. Behind this trough, cold air begins to spill out of
Siberia and Kamchatka and into the western Bering Tuesday. This
airmass makes it into the central Bering Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. Rain showers over the Shemya/Adak/Atka may mix
with snow flakes at times, especially Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, conditions remain showery across the
Southwestern Mainland into Wednesday morning as additional
shortwaves move over the area from the eastern Bering.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Only minor changes from previous discussion. The weather pattern
will remain active through the long term as a broad trough with
numerous shortwaves remains over the Bering Sea and far northern
Pacific. Due to the abundance of shortwaves and interactions along
a broad baroclinic zone, models are struggling to reach a
consensus on the track of each respective storm/shortwave as they
move from the Chain into the Gulf. As such, forecast confidence
for the timing of strong winds and/or rain remains low.

Given the abundance of warm air from the current system, and
another warm and wet system on Tuesday, rain remains the main
precipitation type for most populated areas throughout the
southern Mainland and Aleutians. Modeled snow levels are forecast
to be between 1500 and 2500 ft, but due to the large spread in
storm track there is a large variation in which areas may be cold
enough to get snow. Overall, the forecast remains complex, but
warmer than normal temperatures and areas of rain will continue.
In comparison to the current weather, impacts such as wind and
rain are more likely to be over the Aleutians, Kodiak, the Alaska
Peninsula and the Kenai Peninsula.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...A light northerly wind is expected to prevail through
Sunday morning. However, the southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind may
move over the terminal at times this afternoon as the first round
of rain showers lifts north of the region. Any southeasterly winds
that do move over the terminal are expected to be between 10 and
20 mph with an isolated gust around 25 mph.

Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue to move across
the Anchorage Bowl and airport terminal through the overnight
hours. VRF ceilings and visibilities are likely to prevail, even
during times of shower activity; however, ceilings could fall to
or just below 5,000 ft. More widespread shower activity is
expected for early Sunday morning. There is a better chance
(50-60%) for MVFR ceilings during this round of showers.

&&


$$