Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

422
FXAK68 PAFC 051324
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 AM AKDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch remains in effect for the Central Susitna Valley
  through Wednesday afternoon.

- Flood Warning remains in effect for the Petersville area through
  5PM Wednesday.

- Flood Warning remains in effect for the Yentna River including
  Lake Creek through 1PM Friday.

Discussion:

The pattern will remain unsettled over the next few days as the
upper low over the Bering Strait continues to wobble around before
moving inland and weakening. Several impulses will rotate around the
southern periphery of the low before lifting up across western
Southcentral. The next of these waves will lift through this evening
helping to reinvigorate some of the rain showers over areas along
the Cook Inlet and up into the Susitna Valley. Overall rain chances
will be trending downward, especially Thursday into Friday as
ridging begins to build back over the Gulf, nudging into portions of
Southcentral. For today, light rain showers are still lingering
across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and the Susitna Valley, and will
see these showers continue throughout the day. Heavy rainfall has
ended over the Susitna Valley, but may be able to squeak out another
0.25-0.5 inches of rainfall through this evening. The previous few
days heavy rainfall has resulted in several rivers in the northern
and central Susitna Valley to rise to near of above flood stage once
again. As such, Flood Warnings still remain in effect for the
Petersville area through 5 PM today and for the Yentna River (and
Lake Creek) through Friday. A Flood Watch also remains in effect
for the Central Susitna Valley through this afternoon.

Looking ahead towards the end of the week and weekend... High
pressure looks to build back over the Gulf and interior Alaska
allowing for another period of warm and drier conditions.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Broad cyclonic flow persists across the Bering Sea through the
short-term period as the parent upper low gradually lifts north
toward the Chukchi Sea. Several embedded shortwaves continue to
rotate around the circulation, maintaining an unsettled pattern
across Southwest Alaska and much of the Bering. Guidance remains
in good agreement on the overall evolution of the synoptic
pattern, supporting strong forecast confidence.

Through Wednesday, periods of rain will continue across portions
of the Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim Valley, and western Alaska
Range as another shortwave moves inland. Additional showers will
persist across much of Southwest Alaska through Thursday, though
model guidance indicates precipitation coverage and intensity
gradually diminish as the upper low pulls further north and
large-scale forcing weakens. By Friday, showers become more
scattered with increasing breaks in precipitation across Southwest
Alaska.

Across the Bering and aleutians, broad cyclonic flow supports
widespread low clouds and scattered showers through much of the
period. While showers become somewhat less widespread late
Thursday into Friday, a developing North Pacific low remains south
of the aleutian Chain. Current guidance keeps the deeper moisture
and heaviest precipitation south of the forecast area through
Friday, though increasing cloud cover and a slight increase in
shower coverage may approach the western and central Aleutians
late in the period. Southeasterly winds increase modestly
Wednesday into Thursday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens
before easing and becoming more southwesterly late Thursday into
Friday.

LM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

An upper-level low situated over North-central Alaska will send
shortwave energy southward across the Southern Mainland. The
resulting weather will be diurnally-driven showers this weekend
into next week. This pattern supports more of a scattered shower
regime as opposed to widespread stratiform. The challenge will be
to gauge instability each afternoon to determine whether or not
lightning will be a threat with any robust showers that form.
Right now, it looks like the Copper River Basin, along the
Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western Alaska Range feature
the most instability through the long-term period.

Farther west, a system will drop south out of Upper Kamchatka and
into the Bering Sea by Saturday morning. The point of uncertainty
with this system is its progression. The GFS solution is the
quickest with the system and places it near the Pribilofs Saturday
morning. The Canadian and European guidance is slower with the
progression and has the system in the north-central Bering near
St. Matthew/St. Lawrence Islands Saturday morning. Regardless of
the differences in speed/progression, this system does not look
all that strong or impactful; just wet for the Pribilofs and
perhaps the Central Aleutian Chain for this weekend. A separate
front enters the western Bering on Monday and brings the Western
Aleutians a round of rain Monday into Tuesday. A North Pacific low
lifts towards the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday morning. This
system will bear further watching and interrogation as a tropical
moisture plume may accompany this system.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Light southeasterly winds and VFR ceilings expected this
morning through late this afternoon, however, brief clearing of
cloud cover may allow a scattered 300-500 ft deck to develop this
morning. Ceilings are expected to fall to the MVFR range this
evening along with an increasing chance for a shower or two in the
vicinity of the terminal.

&&


$$