Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

163
FXAK68 PAFC 101419
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
519 AM AKST Tue Nov 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* A Gulf low will continue to affect Southcentral Alaska through
  this evening.

* Multiple Winter Weather Advisories remain in place across
  Southcentral this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

* Blizzard Warning remains in place for Thompson Pass through
  noon Tuesday.

* A Wind Advisory is in effect for Whittier, Portage Valley, and
  East Turnagain Arm through Tuesday morning.

* A High Wind Warning is in effect for Cordova through Tuesday
  morning.


A strong Gulf low positioned south of Seward overnight will move
over the southern tip of the Kenai Peninsula as it begins to
weaken through this morning. As the low moves west-northwest, its
front, and a potent upper-level shortwave, are driving into
Prince William Sound with copious amounts of moisture, warmer air,
and strong winds.

Easterly winds peaked at 92 mph overnight at the Cordova Harbor
along with gusts close to 70 mph across parts of Prince William
Sound, 60 mph at Thompson Pass, 50 mph across the lower Matanuska
Valley and Nikiski, and over 40 mph around Seward and Kenai.
SNOTEL sites across the region indicate up to a foot of new snow
for the higher elevations around Turnagain and Thompson Passes,
while other reports indicate several inches of new snow along
portions of the Richardson and Seward Highways through early this
morning.

As the front drives farther into Prince William Sound and across
the coastal mountains this morning, strong easterly winds will
quickly ramp up through Passage Canal, Turnagain Arm, and across
the Anchorage Hillside. A strong southerly wind will also likely
move through Resurrection Bay and into Seward for a time this
morning as the low moves inland to the west of town. Any snow
lingering across the eastern Kenai this morning will change
quickly to rain as the winds increase and temperatures warm into
the mid 30s to lower 40s, pushing the snow level up above 2500
feet. For areas in the lee of the mountains, a persistent
northeasterly surface winds has kept the precipitation at bay
through the overnight hours. However, as the front drives inland,
the atmospheric column will saturate, leading to mainly rain
across the Mat Valley south to Kenai. A few pockets of freezing
rain remain likely this morning for those areas less likely to see
a strong wind (e.g. East Anchorage, Eagle River, Sterling). Even
these locations, however, will eventually warm up above freezing.

Given the multiple weather impacts from this system, a number of
winter weather and wind products have been issued for this event,
so please see these products for more details.

By late Tuesday afternoon and evening, the Gulf low will weaken
substantially with any lingering showers mainly confined to the
coast. A second storm system looks to them move from the
southeastern Gulf into the central or northern Gulf late Tuesday
or early Wednesday with another round of gusty winds and showery
precipitation for the Southcentral coast.


AB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Cold northerly flow and widespread low-to-mid level stratus, with
areas of rain and snow showers, remain over the Bering and
coastal Southwest this morning. High level clouds have increased
over Interior Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula due to a low in
the Gulf lifting to the northwest.

Chances for light snow showers over interior Southwest Alaska
return Tuesday afternoon, with little to no accumulations. Gale-
force gusts through favored bays and passes of the Alaska
Peninsula through Wednesday morning as the edge of a North Pacific
low lifts across the Aleutian chain. Model consensus is keeping
the center of the storm south of the chain, with the GFS being the
outlier farthest to the north. A change in the consensus to favor
the GFSs solution would increase the potential for winds to reach
advisory level. As of this writing, there is a 75% chance they
will remain below the 50 mph threshold. The period of highest
winds is expected between 8am-10am Wednesday for Adak and Atka,
and 12pm-3pm Wednesday for Unalaska.

This system is expected to bring widespread precipitation in the
form of rain or a rain/snow mix. Southeasterly winds will progress
eastward along the Chain as the low tracks along the southern
side of the Aleutians through midweek. Gusty northerly winds are
expected to return as the low drops southeast out of the area
Wednesday afternoon. Very light to no precipitation is expected
across the Bering Sea as high pressure returns to the region
Friday morning.



&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The long term is characterized by more active weather in the
Bering Sea. Thursday starts with a low south of the Gulf of
Alaska. This low influences the East Aleutians and the Alaska
Peninsula area with northerly flow, allowing for gusty gap winds.
Southcentral Alaska sees some rainfall along the coast from
shortwaves moving through the region. Friday has the low continue
eastward, moving south of the Alexander Archipelago. Rain/snow
clears out for much of Southcentral Alaska. Small craft gap winds
around the waters of Kodiak Island begin as flow turns
northwesterly. A ridge builds over the Bering, leading to drier
and calmer conditions over much of Southwest Alaska. However,
northerly flow allows for gap winds in the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula areas and scattered showers over much of the
Bering. Also, another low moves into the Shemya area from the
west, bringing another round of gusty winds and rainfall.

Saturday sees this low move further into the Bering, allowing for
the low`s front to progress and bring rain to much of the
Aleutians. Gusty winds also will impact the Aleutians. The track
of this low is uncertain at this point, so more or less rains and
wind is possible depending on the true track of the low.
Meanwhile, Southcentral sees features move into the Gulf, allowing
for stronger gap winds in the waters around Kodiak Island. Sunday
sees the low approach the Southwest Mainland. bringing rain and
snow to inland areas and gusty winds to the Unalaska and Alaska
Peninsula regions. Southcentral is very uncertain at this point
with many low level features moving through and bringing rain/snow
and elevated winds wherever they move.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. Light rain will continue into the afternoon, with
ceilings generally remaining above 4000 ft. Northerly winds will
gradually shift easterly through the afternoon, increasing to
around 10 kt with gusts up to 18 kt. Low-level wind shear will
remain possible as stronger easterly winds around 35 kt persist at
2000 ft AGL.

Rain showers will taper off later this afternoon, with vicinity
showers possible through the evening. Ceilings will gradually
lift overnight, with VFR conditions continuing through Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift back northerly and diminish overnight,
becoming light and variable by Wednesday morning. Low-level wind
shear is expected to diminish overnight as stronger winds aloft
weaken.

-LM

&&


$$