Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

473
FXAK68 PAFC 061234
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 AM AKDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Flood Warning remains in effect for the Yentna River including
  Lake Creek through 1PM Friday.
- Overall, rainfall will taper off as high pressure builds across
  Southcentral. Residual precipitation will linger farther
  inland, near higher elevations.

Discussion:

Rain will continue through the rest of this morning as southerly
flow across Kodiak Island, Kenai Peninsula, and northward through
the Susitna Valley weakens throughout the day. High pressure
originating from the Gulf of Alaska will start to build across
Southcentral later this afternoon and through the end of this
week. Residual precipitation could linger farther inland and near
higher elevations of northern Susitna Valley, and northern and
western Copper River Basin through Friday. Thunderstorm chances
are low (10 to 20 percent), but with enough clearing and surface
heating, a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out in the
Copper River Basin. Overall, rainfall coverage is expected to
taper off and Southcentral will trend drier and warmer.

The general flow is relatively weak, but a slight increase of
westerly winds up to around 15 to 20 mph could kick in late
tonight through Friday afternoon. The Copper River Basin could see
some localized breezy winds, especially through wind-prone
gaps from the south or west, such as Tahneta Pass. Whittier could
also see an enhancement of winds from the west during this
timeframe as well.

Otherwise, expect a relatively quieter weather pattern to continue
for the next several days for Southcentral.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The overall weather pattern changes little through the short term
period as a broad upper-level low remains positioned over the
Bering Sea while gradually weakening and lifting northward.
Several weak embedded shortwaves continue to rotate around the
parent low, though forcing steadily weakens with time.

Across Southwest Alaska, lingering light showers this morning
across portions of the Kuskokwim Delta, Lower Kuskokwim Valley,
and Alaska Range diminish through the day as the better moisture
and upper support shift northward. By Friday into Saturday, much
of the mainland experiences a drying trend with only isolated
afternoon showers over higher terrain. Gusty winds across the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay continue to weaken as the
pressure gradient relaxes, with generally lighter winds expected
Friday and Saturday.

Across the Bering Sea and Aleutians, broad cyclonic flow maintains
widespread low clouds and scattered showers through much of the
period. While shower coverage gradually becomes more scattered
Friday into Saturday as the parent low weakens, unsettled
conditions persist across much of the Bering. A North Pacific low
tracks east, well south of the Aleutian Chain through the period,
keeping the deepest moisture and steadier precipitation south of
the forecast area. However, increasing mid and high clouds and
occasional light showers may brush portions of the Central and
Eastern Aleutians late Friday into Saturday. Southeasterly winds
across the eastern Bering and Aleutians today gradually veer to
southwesterly behind the departing trough while slowly diminishing
into the weekend as the pressure gradient weakens.

LM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

By the end of the weekend, troughs of low pressure will be moving
through the South/Southeastern Bering Sea, moving over the
Aleutians in the area. There is a divide between model solutions
on where the lows will drop through precisely, and if it would
bring gusty winds and/or rain to the Alaska Peninsula Sunday. That
being said, the strength of these lows are not impressive, lending
to the idea of weaker winds and rainfall totals anyway. Through
Tuesday, as the troughs move through, a col may develop over the
southern/central Bering Sea, leading to a mixed pattern of showers
and confused winds and waves.

Over the Southern Mainland of Alaska, weak areas of high and low
pressure are expected to develop through the late weekend and
early next week. The resulting weather will be diurnally-driven
showers this weekend into next week. This pattern supports more of
a scattered shower regime as opposed to widespread stratiform.
The challenge will be to gauge instability each afternoon to
determine whether or not lightning will be a threat with any
robust showers that form. Right now, it looks like the Copper
River Basin, along the Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western
Alaska Range feature the most instability through the long-term
period.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Light westerly flow from Cook Inlet through the terminal
is expected for this TAF period. Rain is expected to taper off
and peeks of sunshine could return late this afternoon and evening
as clouds break up. Thus, MVFR ceilings this morning will lift to
VFR by this afternoon. Any clear skies overnight with residual
moisture near the surface will increase the chances for fog
development.

&&



$$