Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

996
FXAK68 PAFC 070034
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

A North Pacific low continues to move into the western Gulf
today. Southcentral remains situated between a shortwave ridge
over the eastern Gulf and a broad trough extending across much of
mainland Alaska. The Gulf system is maintaining a coastal ridge
along the North Gulf Coast, supporting gusty gap winds through
Anchorage, Palmer, and the Copper River Basin. These winds will
persist through the rest of today before gradually weakening late
Sunday into Monday.

Across Southcentral today, the coastal ridge continues to drive
gusty gap winds through the typical favored locations. Wind gusts
in excess of 30 mph have been observed across portions of
Anchorage, with stronger gusts occurring through Turnagain Arm,
Palmer, higher elevations and the Mat Valley. Meanwhile, daytime
heating combined with increased moisture and weak instability has
supported convective development across the eastern interior and
adjacent mountain ranges. Lightning activity has already been
detected just north of Paxson this afternoon, with additional
isolated thunderstorms expected across the Talkeetna Mountains and
portions of the Copper River Basin through the evening hours.

For the remainder of this afternoon and evening, increasing cloud
cover and cooler air filtering southward will keep temperatures
near to slightly below seasonal norms, with highs generally in the
60s across lower elevations. Additional moisture rotating around
the Gulf system will support scattered showers across the higher
terrain and portions of the Susitna Valley. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible through tonight, especially over the Talkeetna
Mountains and surrounding higher terrain where instability
remains greatest. A few stronger cells may drift eastward into
portions of the Copper River Basin.

Broad troughing remains in place across Southcentral through
Sunday and Monday, maintaining chances for scattered showers
across much of the region. Thunderstorm potential decreases after
today as instability weakens, though isolated convection over the
mountains cannot be ruled out.

By Monday, the upper trough begins to weaken and shift eastward,
allowing shower coverage to become more isolated and primarily
terrain-driven during the afternoon and evening hours. Gap winds
will continue to diminish through the period, becoming noticeably
lighter by Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Temperatures
will also begin a gradual warming trend Monday, with many lower
elevation locations climbing back into the mid to upper 60s. While
clouds and a few showers will remain possible, Monday is expected
to be the driest and most stable day of the short-term period
before the next upper-level disturbance approaches the Gulf during
the middle of next week.


LM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

As of this afternoon, satellite imagery reveals that areas of fog
and low stratus covers much of the south-central Bering and is
banked up against the Central/Eastern Aleutian Chain. For the
Bering side of the Alaska Peninsula, however, much of the fog and
low stratus has scattered out and the Bristol Bay area has warmed
into the mid 60s today. Temperatures have been tricky today as a
sharp gradient exists between areas of where there is fog/low
stratus and where there has been clearing. Meanwhile, as a weak
North Pacific low exits into the Gulf, radar returns show that a
few convective showers have formed today across the interior
Bristol Bay region and are generally moving west to northwest with
time. Current 500 mb analysis shows a weak, yet digging trough
moving over Southwest Alaska initiating these showers. A couple of
isolated lightning strikes may occur this afternoon in any robust
showers that are able to form, but overall confidence of that
happening is low.

Greater coverage of showers will be Sunday as a strong, embedded
upper-level shortwave moves over Southwest Alaska. A few lightning
strikes associated with this activity cannot be ruled out Sunday
afternoon/evening, especially along the eastern facing slopes of
the Kuskokwim Mountains. CAPE values are likely to be more
impressive for Sunday afternoon, and mid level lapse rates are on
track to be fairly strong on the eastern side of the Kuskokwim
Mountains. More stable air arrives for Monday and Tuesday as a
much deeper and colder upper level trough digs over Southwest
Alaska. Steady rains are likely across the Southwest moving from
northwest to southeast early next week.

Farther out west, higher pressure will remain in control across
the Bering Sea through the short-term period. The main challenge
for the Aleutian Chain, Pribilof Islands, and southern Alaska
Peninsula will be tracking where low stratus, mist, and fog may
setup shop.

-AM/DN

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

An upper level Arctic trough drops south across the Southern
Mainland Monday afternoon and Tuesday, tracking northwest to
southeast across Southwest and then Southcentral Alaska. A broad
low will develop at the base of the trough in the Gulf of Alaska
on Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty as to where the low
will end up, with some models pushing the low towards Yakutat,
while the GFS stays on a western track towards the Prince William
Sound through Friday. There is fair confidence for widespread
light rain showers as the trough tracks across the Mainland, on
Tuesday, with the chance for drier conditions on Wednesday as the
trough exits to the east. Multiple additional shortwaves may
produce periods of light rain showers Thursday and Friday for both
Southwest and Southcentral. Comparatively cooler temperatures
Monday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon with the trough, with the
chance for slightly above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday.

A North Pacific low looks to push south of the Alaska Peninsula
late Friday night into early Saturday morning, with its front
moving into the southern Gulf of Alaska later on Saturday. There
is still a fair amount of model discrepancies regarding exact
track, however, they are is decent agreement on the Friday
night/Saturday morning timeframe. This may promote a wetter
weekend for portions of Southern Alaska.

KM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through at least
tonight. Strong and gusty south to southeast winds blowing out of
the Turnagain Arm will persist through late Saturday night with
peak gusts around 30 to 35 kts possible during the afternoon and
evening hours before gradually decreasing through Sunday morning.
Marine stratus may begin to work northwards up Cook Inlet Sunday
morning, but chances remain very low that it will make it as far
north as the PANC terminal. Increasing chances for showers near
the terminal late Sunday afternoon into evening.

&&


$$