Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 190131
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Thu Dec 18 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday evening)...

Key Message:
Winds will ramp back up this weekend, especially through the
Matanuska Valley, Thompson Pass, and Valdez. Gusty conditions
could also make it into North/West Anchorage.

The weather pattern across Southcentral Alaska has been static
and will remain as such into the weekend. Winds have remained on
the gusty side today through Valdez, Seward, and Whittier, while
the Matanuska Valley has seen somewhat of a reprieve from the
winds. Valdez will continue to remain gusty the rest of today and
through the nighttime hours with a shortwave digging southward
from the north.

With the pressure gradient remaining tight along the Gulf coast,
gap winds around Kodiak Island, Seward and Whittier will remain
gusty for the foreseeable future with only short-lived breaks in
wind at times. The continued northerly flow means that dry
conditions remain, with occasional high clouds moving in. Cold air
advection and lower winds will allow temperatures to cool to the
single digits across Southcentral with low spots in the Copper
River Basin dropping below -20F and -30F.

A stronger shortwave will dig southward and through Southcentral
starting Saturday afternoon. Cold air advection associated with
this upper wave will really ensue Saturday evening through early
Sunday morning. It is this window where northeast winds could be
strong to significant through Thompson Pass, Valdez, and across
the Matanuska Valley. With this, confidence is increasing for
strong winds through the aforementioned areas and High Wind
Watches have been hoist starting Saturday afternoon through Sunday
evening. Gusty winds could also clip North/West Anchorage
Saturday evening through Sunday morning but the lion`s share of
winds will remain in the Matanuska Valley. Strong winds could
linger through Thompson Pass into Sunday evening while winds
slowly diminish through Valdez and the Matanuska Valley through
the day Sunday, but remaining gusty at times.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Snow to the Kuskokwim Delta and rain/snow mix to the Eastern
  Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula through Friday morning

- A warming trend continues into Friday morning.

- Gusty northerly winds continue for the AK Pen and Eastern
  Aleutians through the weekend.

Discussion:

High pressure spanning the southern Bering remains centered south
of Adak. Southward flattening of the ridge earlier today has
allowed a fast- moving trough to cross the Kuskokwim Delta,
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Light snow along with
areas of fog due to warmer air mixing down to the colder surface,
has caused reduced visibility which will continue for the
Kuskokwim Delta through the evening hours. This front will bring
rain/snow mix to the Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians
through Friday morning. Snowfall amounts for the Mainland range
from less than an inch for Bethel and upper Kuskokwim Valley to
as much as six inches in the Kuskokwim mountains. Warmer air
remains in these areas through Saturday morning when Arctic air
returns.

Northerly winds persist into the weekend in the AKPen and Eastern
Aleutians as the aforementioned high and trough remain quasi-
stationary through Saturday. Sunday, another trough moves across
the northern Bering, bringing the return of precipitation to the
Alaskan Mainland.

- ER

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Strong high pressure continues to be situated over the North
Pacific and extend north into the Bering Sea. Influences from weak
low pressure systems may work to keep the Gulf of Alaska
relatively unsettled. There continues to be good agreement that a
shortwave trough diving south across Southcentral Alaska this
weekend leads to another period of enhanced winds. As a result,
there is some potential for high winds through typical areas,
including the Matanuska Valley and the Valdez area/Thompson Pass
into early next workweek. Temperatures remain below average
across Southcentral Alaska, with the coldest area being the Copper
River Basin, where ambient temperatures will hover in the range
of 20 to 40 below zero. Southwest Alaska, however, will see
warmer, somewhat moist air ride up and over the ridge, bringing
increased potential for precipitation. A series of low pressure
systems track up the coast of Far Eastern Russia toward Western
Alaska through mid-week. This increases chances for precipitation
in Southwest Alaska Sunday onward. Precipitation is likely to be
mostly snow, though liquid precipitation is possible along the
coast and is increasingly likely southward along the Alaska
Peninsula. Southcentral Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and
downsloped in northwesterly flow, though chances for some light
snow to make it past the Alaska Range increase for Tuesday night
and Wednesday as low pressure potentially tracks into the Gulf
from Southwest Alaska.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Light northerly
winds of 10 kt or less expected to continue through the period.

&&


$$