Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

493
FXAK68 PAFC 050411 CCA
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...DELAYED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
556 PM AKDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Flood Watch remains in effect for the Central Susitna Valley
  through Wednesday afternoon.

* Flood Warning has been issued for the Petersville area through
  5PM Wednesday.

* Flood Warning has been issued for the Yentna River including
  Lake Creek through 1PM Friday.

Discussion:

Much of Southcentral Alaska will remain in a stagnant, cool,
cloudy, and somewhat showery pattern through the end of the short
term period. Coastal ridging is slowly eroding this afternoon,
which is allowing for gap winds in general to decrease across
Southcentral, with the exception of the Copper Basin where winds
continue to gust up to 40 mph. These winds will diminish through
Wednesday as there is high confidence of a decreasing north-south
pressure gradient currently in place.

Synoptically speaking, general troughing over Southwest Alaska
and the Bering is anchored by an occluded Bering low that has
become quasi-stationary over the Norton Sound. Meanwhile, its
attendant front has stalled out from Kodiak Island northward to
Talkeetna. Its moisture transport has kept widespread rain showers
over the region today, though a mid to upper level wave digging
over the North Pacific in the wake of the front is starting to
effectively undercut the moisture transport in place. To the east,
a ridge of high pressure situated across the eastern Gulf
continues to remain anchored, preventing further eastward
progression of the front. Due to this blocking pattern, scattered,
intermittent rain showers will continue in the same areas as the
front gradually shears apart and its parent low slowly weakens and
meanders across the far northern Bering.

By Thursday afternoon, model guidance depicts the upper level
support for the Bering low lifting northward to the North Slope,
and thus Southcentral`s rain chances greatly decrease. That said,
a Flood Watch remains in place for the central Susitna Valley and
excessive runoff from rainfall will keep the Yentna River rising
through Thursday morning, where a crest near moderate flood stage
is expected.

-AM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Unsettled weather will continue over the next couple of days
across Southwest Alaska as a secondary shortwave rotates around
the southern edge of a low and moves across the Mainland. Rain
will continue through this afternoon across the Kuskokwim Delta
and western portions of the lower Kuskokwim Valley, as well as
along the western Alaska Range. Low clouds decks will cover much
of Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and Aleutian Chain, though
more settled conditions are expected across the Chain and Alaska
Peninsula with drier conditions and decreasing winds.

The low meanders north towards the Seward Peninsula through
Wednesday. Precipitation will diminish through Wednesday. Winds
will increase across Southwest Alaska Wednesday through Thursday
as flow becomes southeasterly before diminishing through the
overnight hours Thursday as flow transitions back to south-
southwesterly.

KM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

An upper-level low situated over North-central Alaska will send
shortwave energy southward across the Southern Mainland. The
resulting weather will be diurnally-driven showers this weekend
into next week. This pattern supports more of a scattered shower
regime as opposed to widespread stratiform. The challenge will be
to gauge instability each afternoon to determine whether or not
lightning will be a threat with any robust showers that form.
Right now, it looks like the Copper River Basin, along the
Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western Alaska Range feature
the most instability through the long-term period.

Farther west, a system will drop south out of Upper Kamchatka and
into the Bering Sea by Saturday morning. The point of uncertainty
with this system is its progression. The GFS solution is the
quickest with the system and places it near the Pribilofs Saturday
morning. The Canadian and European guidance is slower with the
progression and has the system in the north-central Bering near
St. Matthew/St. Lawrence Islands Saturday morning. Regardless of
the differences in speed/progression, this system does not look
all that strong or impactful; just wet for the Pribilofs and
perhaps the Central Aleutian Chain for this weekend. A separate
front enters the western Bering on Monday and brings the Western
Aleutians a round of rain Monday into Tuesday. A North Pacific low
lifts towards the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday morning. This
system will bear further watching and interrogation as a tropical
moisture plume may accompany this system.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will continue to
steadily relax this morning through early afternoon. Periods of
steady light rain will continue to move over the terminal through
this morning before tapering off by early this afternoon with
ceilings expected to remain in the VFR range.

&&$$