Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

351
FXAK68 PAFC 080159
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
559 PM AKDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Isolated showers and mid-level clouds will persist through the
afternoon across Southcentral as clear skies and moist
southeasterly flow have led to surface heating and convective
activity. Radar returns indicate persistent activity over the
Caribou Hills east of Ninilchik, and increasing activity north
along the Kenai Peninsula, the Chugach Front range, and the
Talkeetna Mountains. Strong southeasterly gap winds for Turnagain
Arm, Knik River Valley, and Copper River Valley will develop this
afternoon through late tonight with gusts up to 35 mph possible.

A shortwave trough off a low over Southeast Alaska continues to
sweep across Southcentral this afternoon. While it has brought
persistent rain to Valdez, Cordova and the southern Copper Basin,
the northern Copper Basin has remained slightly drier under
persistent cloud cover. On Wednesday the residual trough will
then elongate and get pulled southward through the day with
scattered showers redeveloping over the higher terrain drifting
east over Anchorage and Cook Inlet in the east- northeast flow
aloft.

As a low sweeps across the Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday it
passes into the southern Gulf, pulling the remnant trough to the
south along with it. Drier and warmer conditions are expected for
Thursday and Friday with most locations reaching high
temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, with near 70 for Homer,
Seward, and Valdez, and high 60s for Kodiak and Cordova.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday evening)...

A frontal boundary associated with a Bering Sea low will continue
moving inland this evening, bringing light rain from the Southwest
coast into portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and lower Kuskokwim
Valley. Showers and any remaining thunderstorms across the
interior will gradually diminish through the evening, though
locally higher rainfall rates may persist beneath the strongest
cells.

Cooler and more stable conditions arrive Wednesday as the Bering
low crosses the Alaska Peninsula and moves into the Gulf of
Alaska. Temperatures will cool several degrees, with widespread
cloud cover and scattered showers replacing Tuesday`s convective
pattern. An upper-level shortwave dropping south from Interior
Alaska will bring another round of rainfall beginning Thursday
morning, with the highest confidence for wetting rain from
Sleetmute eastward to the western Alaska Range. Rainfall farther
west toward Aniak remains more dependent on the exact track of the
shortwave. A more stable airmass accompanying this system should
keep thunderstorm potential very low, with precipitation falling
as steady stratiform rain. Showers gradually diminish Thursday
night, lingering mainly over higher terrain into Friday morning.

By Friday afternoon attention turns to daytime heating and another
weak upper-level disturbance moving across Southwest Alaska. While
much of the area should experience a relative break in widespread
rainfall, scattered showers are expected to develop during the
afternoon, especially over the higher terrain of the western
Alaska Range and adjacent interior. If enough instability
develops, an isolated thunderstorm can not be ruled out, though
coverage is expected to remain limited. Elsewhere, skies will
remain mostly cloudy with seasonably cool temperatures and light
winds.

Farther west, the Bering low will continue bringing showers to the
Alaska Peninsula today before shifting southeast into the Gulf on
Wednesday. Behind the departing low, patchy fog, low stratus and
northerly flow will persist across much of the eastern Bering
through Wednesday before a ridge builds eastward from the Central
Aleutians, allowing conditions to gradually improve.

The ridge shifts into the Eastern Aleutians Thursday as another
North Pacific low and its associated front approach Adak and Atka.
Rain and strengthening winds will spread east Thursday afternoon
and evening, reaching the eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula Thursday night into Friday.

LM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long term forecast starts on Saturday with troughing and
frontal systems in the Gulf of Alaska. A front will move into
Mainland Alaska on Saturday, bringing rainfall and elevated wind
speeds. Rainfall is expected in Southcentral by Sunday as
troughing moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Confidence on the
intensity of rainfall is uncertain at this point and could be
lighter or heavier depending on how strong the the fronts are.
Sunday will see an upper level ridge start to build back into the
Bering, the ridge will build through Tuesday, likely leading to
widespread low stratus or fog for the Aleutians and Pribilof
Islands. By Monday, the current thinking is that the upper trough
will move further south into the North Pacific from the Gulf of
Alaska. Once this happens, it is likely that conditions across
Southern Alaska will begin to dry out with lingering showers
remaining. Tuesday will be similar to Monday with skies clearing
out further for mainland Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.
Daytime heating could lead to showers over inland areas.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...The southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will persist through
the evening and then lighting up, though not entirely end,
overnight. These winds are expected to increase again Wednesday
afternoon, but not be as strong as this afternoon and evening.
There remains a chance for a shower to encroach on the terminal
this evening, but the more likely timeframe for rain is after
midnight through Wednesday morning as an easterly wave moves into
the area. Even with the rain, VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the TAF period.

&&


$$