Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

884
FXAK68 PAFC 190100
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
500 PM AKDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message: A Red Flag Warning has been issued for LIGHTNING for
the Southern, Central, Western, and Northern Susitna Valley, and
the Lower Matanuska Valley from 1PM AKDT Friday to 1AM AKDT
Saturday.

Discussion:

Aloft, an exiting Gulf low moving inland over the Alaska
Panhandle combined with a ridge axis situated along the Al-Can
border and over Southcentral is pushing subtle easterly waves over
the Copper River Basin to the Susitna Valley. Weak troughing
stretches westward over the Gulf from the upper low and contains a
shortwave trough located just east of Kodiak Island. Out west, a
polar trough continues to dig southward from the Seward Peninsula
to the Kuskokwim Delta Coast.

Although temperatures have warmed well into the 70s today, the
limited upper level lift has only initiated a couple of showers
across the Susitna Valley and the Copper River Basin. The chance
of isolated thunderstorms remain for the Susitna Valley for this
afternoon/evening. The warming trend is also on track to continue
through the end of the short term.

As the upper level trough to the west continues to dig over
Southwest Alaska, it will begin to interact with the upper level
ridge centered over Southcentral. By Friday morning, the
reinforced southerly flow between the two features will lift the
aforementioned shortwave northward and over the Susitna Valley by
the early afternoon. With temperatures again warming to near 80
degrees for this area, stronger upper level forcing with this
shortwave will kick off an active afternoon and evening of widely
scattered to scattered thunderstorms. Although the storms will be
"wet" in nature with brief, heavy downpours, ample cloud to ground
lightning strikes in the vicinity of the storms pose the threat
of new fire starts. As we lose daytime heating late Friday evening
and very early Saturday morning, any remaining storm activity
will weaken into just areas of showers.

Upper level energy rotating around the ridge axis will continue
through Saturday afternoon. However, the primary forecast
challenge for Saturday will be fine tuning the track of another
stronger shortwave lifting out of the Gulf and over Southcentral.
There is still quite a spread in the models regarding timing and
placement of this wave, so storm coverage for Saturday as of now
is of lower confidence. This shortwave will be the main driver of
storm potential for Saturday afternoon/evening.

By Sunday morning, there is fair agreement among the global
models of a relatively weak area of low pressure entering the
western Gulf, which has the potential to bring rainfall to Kodiak
Island.

-AM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Over the Southwest mainland, chances for daytime showers and
isolated thunderstorms (20 to 30% chance) will continue into the
weekend with the Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing the most activity.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Lime Village region for
Friday afternoon to Friday night for scattered thunderstorms (50%
to 60% chances). An upper low descending from the north over the
Kuskokwim Delta region is allowing for cooler temperatures and
non-convective rainfall. This may prevent widespread fog from
forming in the Kuskokwim Delta. However, widespread fog and low
stratus in Bristol Bay will follow the familiar pattern of
building during the evening and decaying during the morning.

Ridging continues over the central Bering Sea, leading to
continued fog/low stratus. The Attu/Shemya region is seeing a
front from a North Pacific low stalling out and bringing elevated
winds and rainfall. The front will slowly weaken in-place and
dissipate by Saturday. The ridge will eventually be squeezed by
the low out west and the low dropping across the Southwest
Mainland. This means that fog/low stratus coverage will shrink to
middle of the Bering between the Adak/Atka and Pribilof Islands
area into the weekend. The pattern becomes more messy over the
weekend. Moisture from a North Pacific low will push into
Southwest Alaska by Saturday, allowing for increased rain chances
over the Southwest Mainland including the Alaska Peninsula. This
rain will be mostly non-convective, but chances (10%) for
isolated thunderstorms over the Kuskokwim regions continue before
the moisture and cooler air makes its way north and decreases
convective potential by Sunday. Also on Sunday, another front will
push into the Attu/Shemya region, bringing another round of gusty
winds and rain.

-JAR/ER

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...


Next week will see unsettled weather for Southcentral Alaska
through Thursday. The showers stem from a weak low that slowly
progresses eastward. The progression of the low is slowed from a
ridge over the ALCAN. Temperatures will be slightly above average
for the mainland early in the week from a surface high.

A Bering low stalled west of the Aleutians will bring its front
over the Aleutians through Tuesday. The front will bring a period
of rain with gusty winds through the Aleutians, slowly weakening
as it progresses east. Following the front, there is significant
model disagreement. The GFS favors development of a Bering low
Wednesday night that would bring rainfall for the Aleutians. Other
models are not keen on acknowledging the low.

Wednesday will see building of an upper level ridge over the
interior. This continues to build confidence for the set up of
scattered showers across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest
Alaska.

-SS

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
chance of showers, and potentially a thunderstorm, in the
vicinity of the airport for late Friday afternoon into Friday
evening.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

Key Message...
- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Southern, Central,
  Western and Northern Susitna Valley and the Lower Matanuska
  Valley due to lightning, which is in effect from 1 PM Friday to
  1 AM AKDT Saturday.

An increasingly unstable pattern will persist across Southcentral
through the weekend as upper-level energy rotates around high
pressure over the region. Temperatures will warm into the upper
60s and lower 70s with some interior locations reaching the mid to
upper 70s. Minimum relative humidities will fall into the
mid-30s, while winds remain generally light, with west to
southwest winds around 5 to 10 mph and localized afternoon sea
breezes.

Isolated showers and wet thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening across the western Copper River Basin, Susitna Valley
and higher terrain.

As the approaching shortwave moves into the area Friday, shower
and thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase, particularly
across the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin, with isolated
thunderstorms also possible across the western Kenai Peninsula and
higher elevations surrounding Anchorage. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued for due to lightning.

Thunderstorm chances are expected to continue into Saturday,
though activity will become increasingly focused over inland and
mountainous areas.

LM

&&
$$