Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

497
FXAK68 PAFC 100005
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 PM AKDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

A summer-like pattern has returned to Southcentral, with
relatively warmer temperatures, lower RHs, and drier conditions.
Gap winds along the coast remain for areas in and around Kodiak,
Seward and Whittier. Much calmer and drier conditions have set in
farther inland where skies are attempting to clear out. Given the
clearing skies, cooler temperatures overnight are possible, or fog
development for areas that recently saw rainfall. Temperatures
during the day are expected to rebound quickly, with daytime highs
expected to be in the low-to-mid 60s for lower elevation areas of
Southcentral. Any areas of fog that develop will start to mix out
within a few hours after sunrise, but in the meantime, watch out
for sudden drops in visibility during the commutes.

Offshore gap winds will prevent any attempt at a sea breeze from
making it onshore for the next two afternoons, supporting balmy
afternoon temperatures approaching 70 degrees in some spots along
the coast. Offshore gap winds are expected to diminish by Friday
morning. Cloud cover near a passing warm front will likely keep
temperatures from dipping down too sharply overnight tonight into
early Thursday. However, clearer skies on Thursday night could
allow low spots over valleys (such as Willow and Glennallen) to
dip as low as the 30s close to sunrise on Friday morning. Cloud
cover will begin to increase some again during the day on Friday
ahead of a slow- moving cold front approaching from the Interior
and Southwest.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* A strong front moves across the Bering Sea and Aleutians through
  the end of the week, impacting Kuskokwim Delta by Thursday. It
  weakens as it moves across the rest of Southwest Alaska and the
  Alaska Peninsula from Friday into Saturday.

* Elevated water levels are expected along the Kuskokwim River and
  Kuskokwim Delta coast Thursday and Friday. High river levels
  combined with storm surge may produce cause water levels to rise
  between bankfull and Minor flood stage along the Kuskokwim and
  Johnson Rivers. For the Kuskokwim Delta coast, current forecast
  is for elevated water levels with little to no impacts, and
  flooding unlikely.

* Otherwise, generally warm and humid under the influence of a
  ridge near the Alaska Peninsula and the influx of a warmer and
  moister air mass.


Discussion:

A pronounced pattern change is ongoing as upper-level ridging
builds across the Bering and expands east across Southwest Alaska.
This will promote generally quieter and drier conditions with
seasonal temperatures across Southwest and the eastern Aleutians
today. A couple shortwaves moving over the periphery of the ridge
may spark some isolated showers across the Kuskokwim Delta and
Valley through Thursday morning, though most activity should
remain to the north. More persistent precipitation may linger
along the northern portions of the Alaska Range given upper level
vorticity and upsloping winds. Additionally, areas of low clouds
and overnight fog will remain possible beneath the ridge, with
areas around Bristol Bay being most favorable. Meanwhile, a deep
low tracking from Kamchatka toward eastern Siberia sends a strong
front into the western Bering and western Aleutians today.
Increasing southerly winds and rain spread into the western
Aleutians by tonight.

The ridge remains rather stout across Southwest Alaska Thursday
while the Bering front presses slowly eastward. Guidance continues
to favor the ridge resisting the eastward progression of the
front, keeping the strongest winds primarily across the western
and central Bering. Nevertheless, periods of small-craft to gale-
force winds and rain will accompany the front as it advances
across the Aleutians and toward the Pribilof Islands.

By Thursday night into Friday, the upper ridge begins to shift
east as the front makes additional progress toward the eastern
Bering and Southwest coast. Southwesterly winds increase along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, with rain spreading into western portions
of Southwest Alaska. The combination of high water moving down the
Kuskokwim River and storm surge moving upriver could result in
bankfull conditions or minor flooding near Tuntutuliak and upriver
towards Bethel during high tide on Friday. Along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast, strong onshore winds could also result in coastal
erosion and minor coastal flooding from Kongiganak northward
through Toksook Bay and Tununak. A Hydrologic Outlook has been
issued for these concerns. The front should continue to weaken as
it encounters the ridge, with uncertainty remaining in exactly how
quickly precipitation and stronger winds progress inland through
Friday afternoon.

- PA/LM/KC


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The low pressure system that is set to bring widespread gusty
winds and rainfall across western Alaska this week will continue
in its eastward track into the Beaufort Sea through this weekend.
Its associated frontal system significantly weakens as it moves
inland across interior Southwest Alaska with the strong upper
ridge and drier conditions lingering across the Gulf and
Southcentral for Saturday.

Despite the weaker, more zonal flow, the pattern remains active
through the weekend as an additional shortwave in the Bering
quickly moves inland and across Southern Alaska. Despite models
varying on the exact strength and timing, this system is generally
expected to bring the next round of rainfall across the
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska Saturday. This
system quickly shifts east and brings the potential for rainfall
across much of Southcentral by late Saturday into Sunday.

Despite increasing model spread heading into next week,
confidence continues to increase for the pattern to once again
become more amplified by the end of the weekend into early next
week. The next shortwave emerges off of Kamchatka and enters the
western Bering where it is expected to interact and phase with
energy lifting north out of the Pacific. As a result, the next
round of potentially strong southerly winds and heavy rainfall
will be possible across the Aleutian Chain beginning Sunday
through the early part of next week as a strengthening low moves
into the southern Bering. Meanwhile, the upper ridge centered over
the North Pacific and southern Gulf strengthens across the
southern Mainland through early next week, bringing a period of
drier weather.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.


&&


$$