Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

188
FXAK68 PAFC 090052
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
452 PM AKDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Thursday - Saturday)...

Model guidance continues to struggle with the evolution and track
of the next shortwave moving from the Yukon across the Alaska
Range into Southcentral on Thursday. While there remains some
uncertainty in the exact placement of the trough confidence is
increasing that showers will become more widespread across the
Susitna Valley, Talkeetna Mountains and portions of the Copper
River Basin, with the axis of heaviest precipitation dependent on
the eventual track of the wave.

As the trough exits into the Gulf Thursday night, drier air and
weak ridging will begin to build into Southcentral. This will lead
to decreasing shower coverage and a warming trend on Friday.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper
70s for many lower elevation locations, including Homer, Seward,
Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova. Developing northerly flow aloft will
also support gusty gap winds through favored terrain, while much
of the region experiences warmer and drier conditions for Friday.

By Saturday, we go right back to the showers pattern. The ridge
shifts east as another Gulf system approaches. Rain will spread
back into portions of the southern coast, including Kodiak Island
and the Homer area, while scattered showers develop across inland
Southcentral. Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will increase
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent marine areas as the next system
moves toward the coast.

LM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Showers have largely tapered off this afternoon across the
Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay as the low in the southeastern
Bering Sea crosses the Alaska Peninsula and into the Gulf near
Kodiak Island. Relatively clear skies across the Southwest
Interior this afternoon will be short-lived as an upper-level
shortwave originating from the interior of the state drops
southward across the Kuskokwim Valley. Models continue to nudge
this feature farther to the west bringing light rainfall as far
west as Aniak through Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Through the remainder of Thursday, most rainfall from this system
will fall from Sleetmute east to the Western Alaska Range. Rain
tapers off Thursday night into Friday morning with some leftover
showers lingering along the Western Alaska Range.

Farther west, low stratus continues to blanket the Bering Sea as
an upper ridge pushes east across the eastern Aleutians and
eastern Bering through Thursday. A surface low quickly lifts north
out of the North Pacific with its front reaching Adak and Atka by
early Thursday afternoon and Nikolski, Unalaska, and the Pribilof
Islands through Thursday evening. The strongest of the winds
associated with this system are expected to be sustained small-
craft southerly to southwesterlies and low-end gale force gusts in
the Pacific marine zones south of Atka to Akutan. Light to
moderate rain across the Aleutian Chain stretching north to the
Pribilofs will also accompany this system as it tracks into the
southern Bering through Friday morning.

By Friday afternoon, the surface low in the southeastern Bering
continues its northeastward track inland into Bristol Bay. As
precipitation begins to spread across the Southwest coast, the
system gains some additional upper level support as a more robust
upper-level trough with several shortwaves rounding its base digs
south across the Bering. Confidence continues to increase in the
likelihood of widespread light to moderate rainfall across much of
the Southwest mainland for the weekend, as the pattern continues
to trend more active and wet for Southwest Alaska.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Starting off the long term forecast is a continuation of the
active pattern in Alaska. A longwave trough with many embedded
shortwaves will move over the Alaska Mainland on Sunday. This
will bring widespread rainfall to much of the Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska Mainlands. Wind speeds will remain relatively
light overland, but will be elevated over coastlines and ocean.
Meanwhile, ridging builds into the Bering, likely leading to
widespread low stratus and fog that extends into the Aleutians and
Pribilof Islands. By Monday, some kind of a low or trough will
move into the Bering. This will push the ridge eastward and will
trigger more active weather into the Bering. The ridge will
briefly decrease activity over the Mainland before features move
in late Monday into Tuesday. There is much uncertainty with
features afterwards, but it is likely that more shortwaves or lows
will move into the Mainland of Alaska, bringing widespread
rainfall and elevated winds.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Southeast winds blowing out of the Turnagain Arm will
continue to slowly diminish this evening, shifting to a weak
southwest wind off of the Cook Inlet by early Thursday morning. A
shortwave disturbance moving in from the north could bring steady
rain into the terminal later on Thursday morning, though this
potential is highly uncertain given poor model handing of this
feature. Even if rain does make it into the terminal late tonight
into Thursday morning, expect predominantly VFR conditions to
persist.

&&


$$