Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

673
FXAK68 PAFC 100234
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 PM AKST Mon Nov 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* A Gulf low will affect Southcentral Alaska today into Tuesday.

* Multiple Winter Weather Advisories remain in place across
  Southcentral this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

* Blizzard Warning remains in place for Thompson Pass through noon Tuesday.

* A Wind Advisory is in effect for Whittier, Portage Valley, and
  East Turnagain Arm through Tuesday morning.

A deep Gulf low has moved north into the northern Gulf, spreading
precipitation across the SouthCentral coastline and lowering
ceilings further inland. As the atmospheric column moistens,
precipitation will spread further inland under a northeast to
easterly wind, though amounts will remain relatively light versus
the higher amounts expected over the coastal mountains (about
2000 feet or higher), where precipitation is set to remain snow
through the event. Elsewhere, snow will transition to a freezing
rain mix, and eventually all rain as surface temperatures warm
under a southerly push Tuesday morning. This period will coincide
with the development of a gusty Turnagain Arm wind that will
extend through the mid to late morning Tuesday. A number of winter
weather and wind products have been issued for this event, so
please see these products for more details.

By late Tuesday afternoon and evening, the Gulf low will weaken
substantially, though the parent low will remain over the Gulf,
with additional areas of enhanced winds and precipitation rotating
around the broader circulation through Thursday. Heaviest
precipitation will primarily be across the coast.

-AB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Steady, northeasterly flow across the Bering continues with a
lack of significant pressure systems in the area. A widespread
low-to-mid level stratus deck blankets the Bering and coastal
Southwest, with embedded areas of snow and rain showers. High
level clouds are currently over Interior Southwest and the Alaska
Peninsula from a low in the Gulf.

Chance for some snow showers over interior Southwest Alaska
returning Tuesday afternoon, with little to no accumulations.
Gale-force gusts through favored bays and passes of the Alaska
Peninsula through Wednesday morning.

By late Tuesday, a low-end gale force front associated with a
North Pacific low pushes north into the Aleutian Islands between
the Rat Islands and Atka. This system is expected to bring
widespread gusty winds and precipitation likely in the form of
rain or a rain/snow mix. These southeasterly winds will progress
eastward along the Chain as the low tracks along the southern side
of the Aleutians through midweek. Some model uncertainty remains,
but a quick round of gusty southeasterly winds are expected early
Wednesday afternoon. On the western side of the low, near
Adak/Atka, gusty northerly winds are expected as the low drops
southeast out of the area through the afternoon. Precipitation and
winds to diminish through Wednesday evening.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The long term is characterized by more active weather in the
Bering Sea. Thursday starts with a low south of the Gulf of
Alaska. This low influences the East Aleutians and the Alaska
Peninsula area with northerly flow, allowing for gusty gap winds.
Southcentral Alaska sees some rainfall along the coast from
shortwaves moving through the region. Friday has the low continue
eastward, moving south of the Alexander Archipelago. Rain/snow
clears out for much of Southcentral Alaska. Small craft gap winds
around the waters of Kodiak Island begin as flow turns
northwesterly. A ridge builds over the Bering, leading to drier
and calmer conditions over much of Southwest Alaska. However,
northerly flow allows for gap winds in the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula areas and scattered showers over much of the
Bering. Also, another low moves into the Shemya area from the
west, bringing another round of gusty winds and rainfall.

Saturday sees this low move further into the Bering, allowing for
the low`s front to progress and bring rain to much of the
Aleutians. Gusty winds also will impact the Aleutians. The track
of this low is uncertain at this point, so more or less rains and
wind is possible depending on the true track of the low.
Meanwhile, Southcentral sees features move into the Gulf, allowing
for stronger gap winds in the waters around Kodiak Island. Sunday
sees the low approach the Southwest Mainland. bringing rain and
snow to inland areas and gusty winds to the Unalaska and Alaska
Peninsula regions. Southcentral is very uncertain at this point
with many low level features moving through and bringing rain/snow
and elevated winds wherever they move.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC....A leading front from a deep Gulf low will arrive this
afternoon, bringing a brief period of flurries or light snow in
the 00z-03z timeframe. The limiting factor for snowfall will be
dry low level air. with gusty northerly winds helping maintain the
dry air. Bottom line, ceilings and vis will likely remain VFR,
with worst case scenario a very brief period (less than an hour
of MVFR conditions). The front will quickly shift westward early
this evening, causing ceilings to rise.

Precipitation will re-develop overnight, most likely after 09Z.
Increasing easterly flow aloft will lead to above freezing air
riding over top of the sub-freezing surface temperatures. Expect
a transition from light snow to freezing rain to rain. For the
terminal, the transition from snow to rain looks pretty quick,
so expect little or no snow and ice accumulation. By 12Z expect
temperatures to rise to 34 degrees or so with periods of rain
continuing through the morning hours. The strengthening easterly
flow will ensure ceilings remain relatively high - likely in the
low end VFR category.

Northerly winds will die down overnight, becoming light and
variable. The remnants of the upper trough will pass overhead and
inland Tuesday afternoon, which could be enough to bend the
southeasterly Turnagain winds into the terminal. However, a weak
remnant surface low will move to southern Cook Inlet, favoring a
light northerly wind. Confidence is low (30-40%) on whether the
Turnagain winds bend into the terminal.

-SEB

&&


$$