Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

310
FXAK68 PAFC 111409
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKST Wed Nov 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Conditions overnight have been rather quiet across much of
Southcentral in the wake of the storm system that moved through
the region yesterday. Scattered clouds are lingering across the
area; however, there are a few breaks allowing for both
temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s and areas of fog to
develop, especially across Cook Inlet and around Homer.

Over the Gulf, the weather pattern is a bit more complex,
dominated by three distinct areas of low pressure - one moving
east to west across the northern Gulf, another over the southern
Gulf, and the third situated along the coast of the Alaska
Panhandle. The first of these features will continue to strengthen
today as it moves to an area south of Seward later this morning.
This low is then expected to lift north with its associated upper-
level shortwave, although the exact track and timing of this
northward jog remain quite uncertain due to extensive model
spread. Even with this uncertainty, there is high confidence that
this feature will bring another round of coastal rain and mountain
snow along with gusty easterly winds for the northern Gulf and
Prince William Sound areas for Wednesday. Some precipitation is
likely to spill over the coastal mountains as well; however, the
extent of this will be determined by low track and winds aloft. It
is likely that a dry northerly flow near the surface, similar to
the previous weather system, may help minimize the amount of
precipitation that does fall from the western Kenai Peninsula
through the Matanuska Valley late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

To complicate matters further, there is still a slight warm nose
of air aloft out ahead of this system. While low confidence at
this time, the warmer air aloft may allow for a slight chance
(20-30%) of freezing rain (mainly freezing sprinkles) before
colder air works in along with any steadier precipitation allowing
the precipitation to fall as snow by early Thursday morning. That
said, any snow that does fall will likely be very light, with
only a dusting to up to an inch possible in these locations. The
heaviest snow and highest totals will again be across the eastern
Kenai and mainly at elevation with areas from Turnagain Pass to
Tern Lake likely (60-70%) seeing up to 4 inches of snow.

The southeasterly flow will also allow for additional moisture to
move into Prince William Sound through late Thursday as the other
two surface lows lift north and west in the wake of the first.
This will keep conditions along the coast unsettled through
Thursday night before a transient ridge helps to dry things out
for a bit on Friday. However, another round of precipitation may
move into the coast by late Friday as the ridge lifts north and a
southerly flow off the Gulf develops.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Cold air advection continues across the Bering and Aleutian
chain, producing weak convective cells visible on satellite. This
will continue while a North Pacific low transitions eastward,
roughly 150 miles south of Atka. It will shift winds from
northerly to northwesterly and pull colder (-10C to -15C) 850 mb
temperatures across the Bering Sea, the Southwest mainland, and
the Alaska Peninsula. Any precipitation from convective activity
over the next 48 hours is expected to remain as snow, but produce
little measurable accumulation. Widespread small craft advisory
winds will persist through the day between Atka and Unalaska, with
gales remaining well offshore to the south.

Winds trend down and the convective pattern weakens Saturday
morning, before the front of a low east of Kamchatka pushes
across the Bering. Warm air advection ahead of the front and
rising snow levels should increase chances for a mix of rain/snow
for the Pribilof Islands, and a possible transitions to all rain
from Unalaska westward by Saturday afternoon.



&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Friday starts with less active weather across Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska as weak ridging builds over the Bering and weak
features move the Alaska mainland. Cold air advection drops into
Southwest Alaska, allowing for scattered snow showers. The
northerly flow will allow for small craft level gap winds in the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula areas and scattered showers
over much of the Bering. Also, another low moves into the Shemya
area from the west, bringing another round of gusty winds and
rainfall.

Saturday sees this low move further into the Bering, allowing for
the low`s front to progress and bring rain to much of the
Aleutians. Gusty winds also will impact the Aleutians with the
front. Meanwhile, Southcentral sees a low move south of the Gulf
of Alaska, turning winds more northwesterly along Kodiak Island
and allowing for gap winds in the waters around the island.
There is much uncertainty on Sunday in the Bering with regards to
the low track. It will progress eastward, but it is uncertain
where it will track to. However, whichever track it takes should
still bring rain and snow to the Southwest Mainland and gusty
winds along the Aleutians. Southcentral is still uncertain at
this point with many low level features moving through and
bringing rain/snow and elevated winds wherever they move. Monday
is even more uncertain with a ridge building somewhere in the
Bering and a low moving into the Gulf of Alaska. However, the
exact track of these features and their impacts is too uncertain
to be clarified at this moment.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC....VFR conditions are expected through today and into the
evening, with mostly clear skies and light northerly winds around
7 kt. Winds will gradually increase Wednesday evening, with
ceilings lowering overnight as precipitation approaches.

A mix of of light rain and snow is expected to develop around 9 PM
Wednesday, with ceilings lowering to around 4000 ft. Northerly
winds will slightly increase to 11 kt after midnight, with light
rain and snow continuing along with mist reducing visibility to
around 6 SM. Ceilings will lower further to around 3000 ft early
Thursday morning, with MVFR conditions possible toward the end of
the TAF period.

-LM

&&


$$