Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

713
FXAK68 PAFC 100027
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
427 PM AKDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows mostly clear skies over
much of Interior Southcentral as the axis of a ridge sits over
Gulf to the Wrangell Mountains. Cloud coverage has increased for
Kodiak Island and the southern portions of Cook Inlet and the
Kenai Peninsula ahead of a strong frontal system currently draped
over Southwest Alaska/Bristol Bay. Cloud coverage increases from
southwest to northeast throughout the evening as the front
continues to move further into Southcentral. Rain has reached
southern Kodiak Island, and will continue to work northeastward to
the rest of Kodiak Island this evening, then to the Cook Inlet,
Kenai Peninsula, western Susitna Valley, and the northern Gulf
Coast overnight tonight.

The arrival of the front marks the beginning of a wet weekend for
much of Southcentral. Temperatures across most of the road system
should remain warm enough for precipitation this weekend to be
rain. However, especially tonight, there is a high likelihood
(80-90 percent) for the higher passes (Broad Pass, Thompson Pass,
Eureka) to see some snow. Most snowfall will be tonight with
slightly cooler temperatures, with light accumulations (2-4
inches) expected at the passes. Confidence is also high (80-90
percent) for higher elevations of Hatcher Pass (above 3,000 feet)
to see 6-12 inches of snow with this system. Temperatures may also
be cool enough tonight for some snow to mix in with rain in Valdez
tonight. Temperatures will continue to warm throughout the weekend
as this system moves through. Most areas on the road system
receiving snow Friday night likely see a transition to rain by
Saturday afternoon as snow levels rise.

This front will stream moisture into the region through the
weekend due to southerly winds in the lower atmosphere and
southwesterly winds well aloft. This drives ample moisture
advection and will maintain steady precipitation for much of the
region through Sunday afternoon. Regarding precipitation amounts,
the heaviest and most persistent precipitation is expected to be
along the northern Gulf Coast (widespread 2-3 inches through
Sunday afternoon with some locally higher amounts possible) and
the western Alaska Range to the northern Susitna Valley (1-3
inches through Sunday afternoon with some locally higher amounts
possible). Downsloping winds will result in lower total
precipitation amounts for the western Kenai, Anchorage, lower
Mat-Su Valley, and the Copper River Basin.

As the front approaches, a pressure gradient tightens between the
exiting Gulf ridge and the front. This will allow southeasterly
gap winds to ramp up this evening and continue through tomorrow
evening (Saturday), with high confidence of gusts up to 55 mph
through Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside and up to 40 mph
for Knik River and Copper River Valleys. Southerly small-craft
force winds persist through the Gulf on Saturday, with some gales
possible in the southern portion of Cook Inlet. By late Saturday,
models show a shortwave driving northward along the front which
will spin up a new surface low NE of Kodiak as the upper-level
wave becomes more negatively tilted. Again, there is good model
agreement that this new feature and its front then drive toward
the northern Gulf for late Saturday with the development of a
coastal ridge out ahead of the front. There is high confidence
(80-90 percent) that this solution will further enhance SE gap
winds through typical locations; however, with the low south of
the Kenai Peninsula, a down inlet flow will set up with high
confidence (80-90 percent) that the Turnagain Arm jet bend south
and away from Anchorage by Saturday afternoon. The strong
southeasterly flow aloft will also increase downsloping with
precipitation chances in the lee of the coastal mountains
diminishing from 60-80 percent Friday night and into Saturday to
40-50 percent by Saturday evening (hence lower expected precip
amounts). Downsloping winds off the Chugach will keep most of the
central and northern Copper River Basin dry on Saturday as well.

As the low and its associated upper-level trough continues to
lift north Saturday night into Sunday, the barrier jet off the
northern Gulf Coast accelerates to gale-force. Some easterly gale-force
winds likely make it into Price William Sound Saturday night into
early Sunday morning. Winds quickly decrease for across
Southcentral once the front moves through, with the Turnagain Arm
wind decreasing Saturday night and the barrier jet decreasing
Sunday morning. With decreasing winds, the effects of downsloping
also decrease for the western Chugach and Kenai Peninsula. This
will allow precipitation to fill in across the Cook Inlet and
Anchorage Bowl as cross-barrier flow diminishes and gusty
southwesterly flow (especially aloft) redevelops. Rain may also
make it over the Chugach and into the Copper river Basin Sunday
morning as the low moves into the coast and quickly dissipates.

Troughing continues over Southcentral through Monday. Clouds and
rain showers will likely (60 to 70 percent) linger through Monday across
coastal Southcentral, the Cook Inlet through Mat-Su Valleys, and
along the Alaska Range, with heaviest rain along the northern
Gulf Coast. Some light overnight snow (up to 1 inch) may fall at
the highest passes Sunday night.


-TM/PA


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Saturday through Monday)...

Discussion:

An upper-level low positioned over the Bering Sea will remain the
dominant feature through the weekend, keeping an unsettled weather
pattern across Southwest Alaska, the Bering and Aleutians.
Multiple shortwaves rotating around the circulation will continue
to bring periods of precipitation and gusty winds across the
region. Southwest winds will remain elevated across portions of
the Kuskokwim Delta today, with gusts around 35 mph through
Saturday night.

Through Saturday, the upper-level low will gradually shift
eastward while slowly weakening. Embedded shortwaves will continue
to support scattered showers across Southwest Alaska, particularly
along the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay. Farther west, gusty
winds and periods of precipitation will persist across portions
of the eastern Aleutians and southern Bering Sea. Cooler air
wrapping around the upper-level circulation will also allow
temperatures to trend downward across Southwest Alaska,
especially during the overnight hours.

By Sunday into Monday, model guidance generally supports the
upper-level low becoming less organized as it moves farther east.
However, additional shortwave energy rotating around the broader
trough will maintain chances for precipitation across Southwest
Alaska and portions of the Aleutians. While winds should
gradually6 decrease as the pressure gradient relaxes, locally
gusty conditions remain possible, particularly across the eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. Confidence remains moderate
(50-60%) in the overall weakening trend, but lower (20-30%)
regarding the timing and placement of individual shortwaves and
associated precipitation through Monday.

LM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Forecast uncertainty in the long range remains high with models
struggling to resolve the eventual progression of the remnants of
Tropical Storm Nolo. Models do agree that broad troughing over the
Bering early next week will become more organized and shift from
the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska through the latter
half of next week. Nolo is expected to be picked up by this trough
in some form or fashion, potentially phasing or being absorbed by
additional wave energy lifting across the North Pacific.
Deterministic guidance brings a strong low into the Alaska
Peninsula or western Gulf by midweek.

Regardless in the various model differences, strong winds,
including gales to even storm force winds, are likely next week
with rain chances also increasing significantly from the Alaska
Peninsula into much of the Gulf of Alaska and Gulf coast. The GFS
remains the strongest solution at this time, bringing gales and
storm force southeasterly winds into the Alaska Peninsula and
Kodiak Island by late Wednesday, with equally strong northerly
winds on the backside of the low spreading into the Eastern
Aleutians. Of note, the GFS brings an even stronger low into the
Gulf by Thursday with a storm force barrier jet setting up along
the Gulf coast into Friday.

BL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...There is high confidence that southeast winds through
Turnagain Arm will increase after 00Z with gusts up to 35 kt
between 06Z through 00Z Sunday. Rain will become likely (60 to 80
percent) around and after 06Z with VFR conditions falling to below
5,000 ft after 09Z (midnight local). Heavier rainfall could bring
conditions into MVFR (30 to 50 percent) Saturday morning.

&&

$$