Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

051
FXAK68 PAFC 131253
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tuesday through Thursday evening)...

Unsettled conditions in the form of rain and higher elevation
snow showers will continue across portions of Southcentral Alaska
as both an upper-level shortwave and surface trough move inland
from the northern Gulf coast this morning. As these features move
over interior Southcentral and weaken by early afternoon, a
secondary wave and area of low pressure east of Kodiak Island this
morning will move into Prince William Sound (PWS) by this
evening. With this second system, coastal locations (including
Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula) will see
the greatest potential for precipitation, while areas farther
inland (including Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys) may
experience more intermittent precipitation. Snow level will remain
an important forecast consideration, particularly across higher
elevations, where around 4 to 8 inches of snow may be possible at
Thompson Pass tonight through early Wednesday morning.

Model guidance still shows some uncertainty in the track of the
surface low and its associated front as it moves north toward PWS.
Specifically, most hi-res guidance has trended a bit more west
with the low track while the GFS, which had the farthest west
solution, has trended east. This track does maintain high-
confidence in the heaviest precipitation amounts extending from
Cordova and Valdez northward across Western and Central Copper
River Basin with moderate confidence in precipitation falling as
west as Portage, Whittier, and Palmer. There is much lower
confidence in precipitation reaching as far west as Wasilla and
Anchorage. Also, with temperatures falling into the mid 30s
overnight tonight for these lower elevation locations, some wet
snow could mix in with any rain that does fall, mainly for
locations that have the best chance for steadier precipitation,
such as Palmer. The Upper Hillside of Anchorage and Eagle River
would also have a chance (30-40%) to see light accumulations of
snow overnight if this band of precipitation does take the more
westward jog.

Also on Wednesday, the upper-level pattern begins to transition
as the earlier disturbance shifts eastward and attention turns
toward another developing system over the North Pacific. While
some locations may experience a relative decrease in
precipitation, lingering moisture and additional embedded
disturbances could maintain unsettled conditions, particularly
along the coast.

By Thursday, model guidance indicates a more amplified upper-level
pattern as a stronger trough and associated low-pressure system
approach the northern Gulf. This system will bring another round
of widespread precipitation and gusty winds to portions of
Southcentral ALaska, particularly along the northern Gulf Coast,
Prince William Sound, the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak
Island.

The GFS, Canadian, NAM and ECMWF guidance generally supports a
more organized system developing, although differences remain in
the placement and strength of the upper-level trough and
associated surface low. A track closer to the norther Gulf Coast
would increase the potential for stronger winds and heavier
precipitation, while a track farther south or east could limit
impacts farther inland.

Confidence is moderate in the overall evolution of the system, but
lower regarding the magnitude and location of potential impacts.
Uncertainty remains in model guidance regarding the exact track
and strength of the low through Thursday.

-LM/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Convective Bering Sea showers will continue today.

2) A North Pacific low moves toward the the Aleutians/Alaska
Peninsula mid-week.


DISCUSSION:

1) Convective Bering Sea showers will continue today.

Nighttime microphysics overnight showed continued showers moving
southward to the Western and Central Aleutians ,though surface
observations reported trace to a tenth of an inch of
precipitation over a twelve hour period ending at 4:00 am today.
These conditions will continue through this evening as a North
Pacific shortwave and a dissipating low off the coast of
St.Lawrence Island moves south across the Bering Sea.
Additionally, precipitation decreases rapidly today across the
Mainland.

2) A North Pacific low moveS toward the the Aleutians/Alaska
Peninsula mid-week.

High pressure in the North Pacific drifts southward as a North
Pacific low deepens and moves toward the Eastern Aleutians/Alaska
Peninsula into Thursday. The low deepens from 985 mb this morning
to 970 mb through tomorrow morning. After the front crosses the
AK Pen / Eastern Aleutians late tomorrow morning, a robust area of
small craft to gale-force winds extends throughout the
southeastern Bering Sea and the Bristol Bay waters Wednesday into
Thursday morning. Looking deeper, northerly winds from Dutch
Harbor eastward to King Cove have a 70% chance of exceeding 50 mph
and a 40% to 60% chance of exceeding 60 mph from the early
morning hours to middle afternoon hours. The most likely (60% to
80%) chance for wind gusts in the aforementioned area to exceed 50
mph is Thursday from the late morning hours into the late
afternoon hours. As the low begins to slowly pivot east towards
the Gulf Thursday, north-northwesterly winds across the southern
AKPen and eastern Aleutian Islands further strengthen, bringing
the potential for storm-force gusts from roughly Unalaska to Cold
Bay and widespread gales through favored bays and passes along
the southern AKPen. Across the Southwest Mainland, expect gusty
easterly Kamishak Gap winds as well as gusty offshore winds for
the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Bristol Bay coast. Also of note, a
40% to 60% chance of northeasterly wind gusts out of Shelikof
Strait range from 40 mph to 50 mph.

-Johnston

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast starts off on Friday with a low tracking
into the Gulf of Alaska and weakening. Scattered rainfall impacts
Kodiak Island and the Southcentral Coast. Higher elevations will
likely see snowfall with snow levels at 1500 to 2000 ft. For
Southwest Alaska, gap winds over the Unalaska area and Alaska
Peninsula quickly diminish as the low moves east. Ridging
develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially
low stratus or fog. Uncertainty with the low`s location is
present on Saturday, with more or less rain and snow possible for
the coast depending on the low`s exact position. On Saturday
night/Sunday morning, a frontal system moves into the Bering,
leading to rain and elevated winds over parts of the Aleutians,
but exactly which part is uncertain for now. Southcentral dries
out on Sunday as the low is absorbed by a new low moving into
Southeast Alaska. A strong North Pacific low is poised to move
south of the Aleutians by Monday, which would bring gusty winds
and rainfall to the Unalaska and Nikolski area. Southcentral
remains drier on Monday.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Winds remain light and variable. Rain showers will be less
frequent through this afternoon, but there is still about a 20 to
40 percent chance that a stray shower could move over the
terminal and briefly drop ceilings to as low as 1500 to 2500 ft.

Around 04Z this afternoon, ceilings will likely drop below 5000
ft as a low approaches Prince William Sound. There is about a 30
percent chance that precipitation will spread far enough west to
bring rain to the terminal tonight, which would increase the
likelihood of MVFR ceilings around late afternoon/evening.
Regardless of whether we see another round of rain, ceilings will
likely continue to drop to as low as 500 to 1500 ft late tonight
as lingering moisture leads to the development of low stratus.

&&

$$