Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

297
FXAK68 PAFC 151428
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
628 AM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Moderate to heavy rainfall has been ongoing overnight across Kodiak
Island with light to moderate rainfall for areas further north along
the eastern kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound as a nearly
stacked upper level low off southern AKPEN Gulf-side coast. Several
perturbations embedded in the flow around the low have allowed for
rounds of rain to move northward over the Gulf bringing these
heavier rain showers to the coastal areas. Some of these showers have
spilled over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains, but these have been
pretty isolated and light. The parent low will start to weaken today
as the long-wave trough shifts east over the Gulf as ridging begins
to build eastwards over the Bering Sea. Once of these perturbations
have become more defined on satellite imagery as the surface low and
associated front lift towards the Gulf coast. Strong winds of gale
to storm force have developed over the northern coastal waters this
morning as the front nears...with gusty winds moving into the
immediate inland coastal areas. The front will then continue to lift
into inland Southcentral through the day.

Precipitation will have a better chance of spilling over the
mountains with the passage of the front with a period of light rain
for the western Kenai Peninsula, then up into Anchorage, the Mat-Su
Valleys, and the southern Copper Basin. Periods of snow will be
possible at higher elevations with snow levels fluctuating between
2500 ft to 4000 ft along the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Favored
gap flow winds will increase as the gradient tightens in response to
these perturbations moving through.

The upper trough will slowly translate eastwards the remainder of
the week before reaching the Panhandle this weekend. As such, the
unsettled weather pattern will continue with more intermittent
showers for inland Southcentral and more continuous rainfall along
the coast.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...


Surface observations and satellite imagery overnight through 4:00 am
today showed rain and cloud cover from the quasi-stationary North
Pacific low south of Chignik continues to cover the Southwest
Mainland to the Central Aleutians. Clouds over the Mainland and
the Alaska Peninsula will continue to move southeast to northwest
bringing mostly rain to the area through tomorrow afternoon.
As the low moves into the Gulf of Alaska, cooler air filters into
the Mainland beginning late Friday afternoon. It continues into
early Saturday morning resulting in rain mixing with snow. A trace
to an inch of accumulation is possible by Saturday morning.

Cloud cover in the Central and Eastern Aleutians, moved south and
southwest, driven by north and northeasterly winds, brought rain
to the region yesterday through 4:00am today. This wind flow will
persist through tomorrow bringing continued periods of rain and,
late Friday evening / Saturday morning snow, to the region as the
aforementioned low slowly moves into the Gulf of Alaska. Wind
gusts in the Central Aleutians, from Kind Cove to Unimak Pass,
range from 40 mph to 50 mph into tomorrow morning. The strongest
winds will be this morning and also through the bays and passes.

Weak ridging moves across the Central Aleutians tomorrow reaching
the Mainland late Saturday morning. In its wake, a trough forms
in the Western Aleutians bringing a series of weak lows through
the Bering. These will allow for continued rain and southerly
winds from the Western Aleutians to the AK Pen to start the
weekend.

-Johnston



&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

High confidence exists in a brief drying trend across Southcentral
on Sunday as lingering Gulf troughing is absorbed by a system
shifting into the panhandle. Farther west, ensemble guidance
suggests a frontal boundary advancing into the Bering Sea on
Sunday, bringing a 50% to 70% chance of rain and elevated winds
across the Aleutians; however, confidence remains low regarding
the exact spatial placement and track of this boundary.

Forecast spread increases heading into early next week, though
clusters consistently favor a potent North Pacific low tracking
south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula late Sunday into
Monday. There is moderate-to-high confidence in gusty, potentially
gale-force winds and steady rain impacting the Nikolski and
Unalaska corridors early Monday. As deep moisture lifts northward
ahead of the system, precipitation chances increase rapidly
across Southcentral as early as Sunday night. The potential for
moderate to locally heavy rainfall remains highest from Kodiak
and the northern Gulf coast through Monday, though specific rain
totals will ultimately hinge on the system`s exact track.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period,
however, there is a chance that a period of light rain later this
afternoon and evening could bring a brief reduction in visibility.
Otherwise, LLWS concerns will develop this morning and continue
into the afternoon hours as northerly surface winds will be
overrun by strong cross-barrier (easterly) winds higher up.

&&

$$