Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

441
FXAK68 PAFC 151415
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKST Sun Nov 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

While the forecast through the next 24 to 36 hours is primarily on
track, there have been a couple of significant changes. First, the
band of steady snow that had been a note of uncertainty with this
frontal system now looks like it will remain over the Kenai
Peninsula and south of the Anchorage Bowl through most of this
event. Thus, there is high confidence that snow amounts will be
much lower than initially forecast, with likely snow amounts of
around 1 to 4 inches, and the highest amounts closer to the
Anchorage Hillside.

The second significant change is the slightly more southerly track
of this front and the resultant stronger surge of warmer air
advecting over the Kenai Peninsula by this evening. There is now
higher confidence that snow levels will lift a few hundred feet
higher than initially forecast, likely reaching up to 2000 feet by
around midnight. There is also higher confidence that the push of
warmer air into at least the eastern half of the Kenai Peninsula
will bring a faster changeover of snow to rain along the Seward
Highway from Turnagain Pass to Primrose. Thus, it is now very
likely (80-90%) that these locations will see slightly lower snow
amounts and freezing rain potential through Monday. That said,
there is still a chance (30-40%) for some pockets of freezing rain
along this corridor in area that typically stay colder and see
less wind to warm up temperatures.

There remains high confidence for snow across Cook Inlet and the
western Kenai Peninsula with this system, albeit not starting
until a bit later this morning. There is still a chance (30-40%)
for freezing rain for the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage
Sunday night as the warmer air aloft reaches Cook Inlet and as the
steadier precipitation beings to taper off. Farther south, there
is growing confidence that precipitation from Ninilchik to Homer
and Seldovia remains all snow through Monday morning before a
southwesterly wind ushers in warmer air and a changeover to rain
or a rain/snow mix. Models have trended toward keeping the warm
nose of air aloft to the north of this area, resulting in a lower
chance (30-40%) for any freezing rain to mix in. As such, there
is a higher chance (50-60%) for increased snow amounts,
especially at the higher elevation along the Homer Bluffs.

Please see the current Winter Weather Advisories for additional
details.

By late Monday morning and into the afternoon, uncertainty grows
regarding whether this system lingers over the southern Kenai
Peninsula or begins to lift back northward. Currently, the likely
(60-70%) scenario is for precipitation to lift back to the north
as light wintry mix from Kenai to Anchorage and a rain/snow mix
for the eastern Kenai Peninsula as snow levels fall slightly to
around 1400 feet, based on most guidance.

KM/TM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A low is currently moving through the Bering, allowing for small
craft winds across the Aleutians. Today, the low will pivot,
shifting its track southward, and bringing gusty gales on the
western side of the low. The low then slowly drifts southeastward
through Monday, turning winds southerly and bringing cold air.
This cold air advection and northerly flow will allow for gusty
gap winds out of bays and passes in the Eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula.

By Monday afternoon, a large, strong low pressure system will
move in from the west. This low brings very strong storm force and
potentially hurricane force winds to the Shemya and Adak region by
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The low`s front will push
eastward and bring storm force winds to the Pribilof Islands by
late Tuesday morning. As the day progresses, the low moves
further northeastward into the Bering and brings gale to storm
force winds to most of the Aleutians. Due to the threat of gusty
winds, a High Wind Watch remains in effect for Shemya and the
Pribilof Islands starting early Tuesday morning/late Monday night
and lasting through Tuesday afternoon. For Adak and Atka,
confidence has grown enough that we have upgraded to a High Wind
Warning. Strongest winds will be over Adak very early in the
morning Tuesday. The low`s front reaches the Southwest Mainland
at this time as well, bringing southeast gale force winds to the
coastline. These winds are not a favorable direction for coastal
flooding in the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, but elevated water levels
may be possible. Precipitation will likely begin as snowfall for
Southwest Alaska Tuesday afternoon when the front pushes onshore.
Southerly flow will bring warmer air into the area, transitioning
snowfall to rain/snow or rain by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

By Wednesday morning, the low appears to stall out in the
Central/Northern Bering. This position would be favorable to
bring a prolonged push of westerly gales-to-storm force winds into
the Pribilof Islands potentially through the latter portion of the
week. Stay tuned to the forecast as we continue to monitor this
impactful system.

-JAR/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The model guidance suggests an active pattern across southern
Alaska through the extended period, with a series of strong North
Pacific lows and associated upper-level trough influencing the
region.

A broad upper-level trough remains positioned over the Bering Sea
and western Alaska Wednesday, while strong surface low tracks
across the North Pacific. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue
to transport moisture toward southern Alaska, maintaining
opportunities for precipitation across coastal areas and the
higher terrain. Snow may be favored inland and at higher
elevations, with precipitation type along the coast dependent on
temperatures and the extent of warmer air moving northward.

By Thursday, guidance indicates continued troughing over western
Alaska, with additional shortwave energy rotating through the
broader circulation. This will maintain an unsettled pattern,
with periods of precipitation possible as disturbances move
across the region. The placement and strength of individual
shortwaves will determine where the more organized precipitation
develops.

Heading into Friday and Saturday, the models suggest another
strong low developing over the North Pacific and tracking toward
the Gulf of Alaska. This system could bring another round of
precipitation and gusty winds to portions of Southcentral,
particularly along the Gulf Coast. Snow is favored across inland
locations and higher elevations, while coastal locations could see
a mix of rain and snow depending on the track of the low and
associated warm air advection.

Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the period as
guidance differs on the placement, timing, and intensity of the
approaching low. These difference will have implications for
precipitation amounts, snow levels, and wind speeds across
Southcentral.

-LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds will persist through the day,
increasing slightly after 03Z Monday. This morning, a weather
system approaching from the east will bring light snow through
the day. Expect MVFR conditions with possible IFR conditions
during periods of heavier snow. There is low confidence in
the timing of the heaviest snow rates/intensity and for when the
snow tapers off later this afternoon. Increased winds around 10
to 20 kt will help bring warmer air aloft. There is a 10 percent
chance that as warmer air moves in Sunday night, snow will
transition to rain and potentially freeze on untreated surfaces.

&&


$$