Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXAK68 PAFC 240036
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Wed Sep 23 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Isolated marine lightning over the central Gulf of Alaska is
  possible through this evening.

- Clearing skies and cool temperatures will lead to another night
  of patchy fog and widespread lows near or below freezing.

- Gap winds return to Southcentral as early as Friday morning out
  ahead of a gale force front that will lift northeastward across
  the northern Gulf.


Discussion:

The first part of the short term forecast will remain relatively
quiet. Currently, the only real feature of interest is ~1001 mb
low meandering across the eastern Gulf. Due to colder air aloft
steepening lapse rates and therefore increasing instability, an
isolated lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out this evening
across the central to eastern Gulf. Elsewhere, clear skies and
light winds will allow for temperatures to fall quickly tonight
from anywhere from the 20s to near 30 degrees for the Copper River
Basin and Susitna Valley, and overnight lows bottoming out in the
mid 30s for the Anchorage Bowl. Areas of patchy fog are possible
Thursday morning from Big Lake to Talkeetna with a combination of
radiational cooling and residual moisture from recent rainfall.

Attention then quickly shifts to the west where a very strong
system is progged to enter the western Gulf in the form of a gale
force front with storm force gusts by Thursday afternoon. While
the parent area of low pressure remains in the Bering, models show
the front lifting northeastward across the Gulf through the rest
of the short term. Winds will first impact Kodiak Island starting
Thursday afternoon. On the precipitation side of things, rain
chances increase first for Kodiak Island, the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, and Prince William Sound locations Thursday afternoon
and periods of locally heavy rain are possible given upslope
enhancement. Coastal ridging is on track to build across the
northern Gulf coast on Friday, which will lead to a gradual
increase in gap winds for the Copper River Basin, Knik River
Valley, and Turnagain Arm. In contrast to coastal locations,
southeasterly winds ahead of the front will create a "downslope
hole" for the Anchorage Bowl, keeping this area mostly dry through
Friday and Saturday as the front continues its trek northeastward
across Kodiak Island. Also, for Friday morning, as the gale force
front aligns with Kamishak Gap, expect these winds to ramp up and
continue through Friday afternoon.

As the east to west oriented pressure gradient maximizes along
the Gulf coast from the coastal ridge Friday afternoon and the
southeasterly winds from the front itself aligns with the
Turnagain Arm, expect Turnagain Arm winds to increase here as
well. Due to the parent low location out west signaling down-inlet
flow, the Anchorage Bowl seems to be less of a concern than the
Hillside, where at elevation wind gusts will likely be ticking up
in the neighborhood of Wind Advisory criteria. The consensus with
this afternoon forecast package is to lean into the 75th
percentile NBM, and it shows that wind gusts fall just short of
Wind Advisory criteria for the Hillside, but it also depicts (as
expected) higher winds just above the Hillside. Current forecast
confidence is still in the medium range (40 to 60 percent) for
Hillside wind gusts, but should this evening and overnight model
runs come in stronger, this will most likely necessitate a wind
hazard product. Conditions could potentially become hazardous from
gusty conditions along the Seward Highway along the Turnagain Arm
late Friday into Saturday morning as the highway could become
clipped with strong wind gusts. Again, the low location out west
will be key in determining the extent of impacts from the
Turnagain Arm wind. As the parent low located over the eastern
Bering begins to move northward, model consensus is that the
Turnagain Arm winds will begin to bend northward, but this
currently does not look to coincide with the strongest winds from
frontal alignment with the Turnagain Arm gap. Stay tuned.


-AM/Rux

&&




.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong Bering Sea low is forecast to impact the Bering Sea,
  Aleutian and Pribilof Islands, and Southwest Alaska beginning
  this afternoon into this weekend.

* For the Bering Sea: Widespread areas of gale force winds, some
  areas of sustained storm force winds with hurricane force gusts
  expected through the Western and Central Aleutians including
  near Adak/Atka and Shemya where High Wind Warnings are in
  effect. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Unalaska for gusts
  up to 55 mph late Thursday and Friday. Expect elevated wave
  heights, with seas up to 25 to 35 ft possible.

* For Southwest Alaska: Southeasterly gale force winds likely, and
  a Wind Advisory has been issued for Coastal Kuskokwim Delta and
  the Western Capes. The Coastal Flood Watch has been upgraded to
  a Coastal Flood Warning with the primary communities of concern
  being Kwigillingok/Kongiganak and Kipnuk, and communities near
  and along the mouth of the Kuskokwim River.

Discussion:

Calm and clear conditions continue for Southwest Alaska this
tonight as the ridge of high pressure exits overhead. Expect
interior locations that see clear skies overnight tonight to again
drop to near or below freezing, similar to last night and this
morning.

Over the Bering, a large and strong front is currently stretched
from the Central Aleutians to the northwestern Bering while the
remnants of Typhoon Dujuan get siphoned into this system. These
systems will continue to merge through this evening leading to
the consolidation and rapid strengthening of the low in the
southern Bering today. Much stronger winds are developing across
the Bering this afternoon with ample tropically sourced moisture
leading to moderate to heavy rainfall along the front pushing east
across the Bering through Thursday morning.

As the low tracks into the central Bering by this afternoon
through Thursday morning, sustained gale-force winds are likely to
encompass much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians. Winds continue to
further strengthen this evening and overnight tonight as the low
reaches its minimum central pressure likely in the range of 950
to 960 mb. A swath of sustained storm-force winds along the
Aleutian Chain from Shemya to Atka are expected beginning late
this evening through Thursday evening as the low tracks east
across the southern Bering. Widespread storm-force gusts and
the potential for hurricane force gusts (>=75 mph) will be likely
for these areas. High Wind Warnings will be in effect from 10 PM
this evening to 10 AM AKDT Thursday for Shemya and Attu, and from
7 AM to 10 PM AKDT Thursday for Adak and Atka. The combination of
strong winds and long fetch could lead to high seas, perhaps on
the order of 25 to 35 ft across the Bering Sea and North Pacific
waters just south of the Aleutians, as well as the potential for
high surf for the Pribilof Islands. Additionally, a Wind Advisory
has been issued for Unalaska and Nikolski for sustained winds of
35 to 45 mph out of the West with gusts to 55 mph starting
Thursday evening, coming to an end by Friday evening.

For Southwest Alaska, there is high confidence for a gale-force
front reaching the coast tonight through Thursday morning. Strong
southeasterly winds increase with the arrival of the front with
the potential for gusts up to 60 mph along the immediate coast
through Thursday evening as the front moves inland. As such, a
Wind Advisory is in effect. Given the strong push of onshore flow,
the previous Coastal Flood Watch has been upgraded to a Coastal
Flood Warning. Models continue to struggle on pinpointing the
exact track of the low as it nears the YK- Delta in the eastern
Bering, however there is enough confidence to say that elevated
water levels across portions of the Kuskokwim Delta coastline are
expected. Water levels on average of 1.5 to 2.5 feet above the
normal highest tide line are expected in Kwigillingok, with the
worst case scenario water levels at 5 feet above the normal
highest tide line. Stay tuned for forecast updates as this storm
continues to evolve.

-JH/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

 An upper level stationary low over the Interior Mainland late
this weekend causes a trough to dig into the Bering Sea through
the middle of next week. This trough brings persistent
northerly/northwesterly winds to the Central and Western Aleutians
through mid-week. Additionally, the flow brings low pressure
systems through this area Monday and Wednesday resulting in rounds
of precipitation and gusty winds through the bays and passes. The
exact track of the mid-week storm through the Aleutians is
uncertain with the general consensus of a more southerly route
looking likely at this time as winds turn more northerly. In
Southwest Alaska, onshore flow and weak ridging sets up between
the lows` passing.

For Southcentral, multiple lows are projected to enter the Gulf
of Alaska bringing rain and wind to Kodiak Island and both the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and the Prince William Sound coasts from
late this weekend and into the middle of next week. There are
signals of a weak ridge in the Gulf of Alaska arrives late next
Wednesday.



&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period.

&&


$$