Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

059
FXAK68 PAFC 210015
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
415 PM AKDT Tue Oct 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for snow from
  Anchorage Hillside, across the Northern and Western Copper
  River Basin and Thompson Pass.

- Temperatures trend colder for the latter half of the week in the
  wake of this storm system.

Discussion:

An upper level low is currently moving over Southcentral Alaska.
Snowfall over Southcentral is tapering off as colder and drier air
filters into the region from the northwest. However, steady light
snowfall will persist in the Copper River Basin at least through
Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon, snowfall will end
across Southcentral. As the surface low in Prince William Sound
slowly moves eastward over the next couple of days, gusty
northeast gap winds set up around Kodiak Island. Gap winds will
also persist in Resurrection Bay, Passage Canal, and Valdez
through Thursday.

Overnight lows across the bulk of Southcentral will be much
colder over the next few days, dipping into the teens and 20s in
most spots for early tomorrow and Thursday morning, and into the
single digits for portions of the Copper River Valley by Wednesday
night/Thursday morning if skies remain clear. Fog may form across
Anchorage, the Mat-Su, and the Kenai Peninsula due to moist
ground and clearing skies. Cool and dry conditions persist through
Friday as an upper ridge encroaches into Southcentral from the
west. Looking ahead, a front looks to move into Southcentral from
the west on Saturday, likely bringing rainfall to Kodiak Island.
Southerly flow with this front may bring warmer temperatures along
with it, warming even inland temperatures to the 40s.

-JAR/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cold Bay and King Cove
  from Friday morning to Saturday morning with southeast winds
  potentially gusting up to 75 mph.

* A High Wind Watch is now in effect for the Kuskokwim
  Delta/Coast, along with Bristol Bay from Friday morning to
  Saturday morning. South winds could gust as high as 70 mph, and
  there is medium to high confidence (60 to 80 percent) in wind
  gusts exceeding 60 mph.

* A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta
  coast, including Kipnuk and Kwigillingok from 8AM Friday through
  1AM Saturday, particularly around high tides near 10AM and 10PM
  Friday. The most likely scenario is for water levels to be 2 to
  3 feet above the normal highest tide line.


Discussion:

Anchored by an upper level low that is moving eastward out of
Southwest Alaska, a broad longwave upper level trough encompasses
much of Alaska this afternoon. As such, expect elevated
northwesterly gap winds for the Alaska Peninsula through favored
bays and passes as this system further departs into Southcentral.
Look for any remaining flurries and snow showers to move eastward
with the progression of the upper low and shut off for Southwest
Alaska later this afternoon and evening.

Moving out further in time, attention then quickly shifts to the
Western Aleutians where a storm force front from a ~960 mb
Kamchatka low enters the picture sometime Wednesday evening to
early Thursday morning. As the parent low slowly moves eastward,
its storm force front accompanied by moderate rainfall will sweep
the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain through Friday afternoon. This
has prompted a High Wind Watch to be issued for Cold Bay and King
Cove from Friday morning to Saturday morning as strong winds
become enhanced through the southeast to northwest oriented gap.
Therefore, there is currently medium confidence (40 to 60 percent)
in wind gusts meeting or exceeding 75 mph for these two locations.
High Wind Watches are also in effect for the Kuskokwim Delta/Coast,
as well was the Bristol Bay coastline from Friday morning to
Saturday morning. There is medium to high confidence (60 to 80
percent) in wind gusts meeting or exceeding 60 mph for these areas
under the watch.

By Friday morning, the Kamchatka low skirts roughly parallel to
the eastern Russia coastline with a broad swath of southwesterly
gales in the low`s wake across the Bering. Meanwhile, its
associated front slowly comes to a stall along the Southwest
Alaska coastline. As it does so, a prolonged period of strong
onshore southerly high end gale to storm force winds will increase
coastal flood concerns for locations like Kwigillingok and
Kipnuk, which has prompted the issuance of the Coastal Flood
Watch. Current P-ETSS guidance wants to bring water levels,
despite lower tides, 2.0 to 3.0 feet above the normal highest tide
line. This could produce minor flooding of low lying areas in
coastal communities, including Kongiganak, Kwigillingok, and
Kipnuk. Moderate rainfall associated with the front will most
likely compound coastal impacts. Stay tuned.

-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

* A series of strong storms move across the Bering Sea and into
  Alaska through the weekend, bringing strong winds and heavy
  precipitation.

* Confidence is low to medium with regards to impacts, strong
  onshore winds and elevated coastal water levels concerns for
  Southwest Alaska, mainly Friday and Saturday and again on
  Monday.

Discussion:

The biggest story in the long-term forecast continues to focus on
a strong low transiting from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Alaska.
Ensembles continue to be in relatively good agreement with this
storm, with seemingly higher-than-average forecast confidence
given that this feature is 3 to 6 days out. Good run-to-run
consistency among deterministic global models is also contributing
to higher-than-average forecast confidence. The areas of highest
agreement with this feature are for gale to storm force sustained
winds along the front as it moves across the Aleutian Chain, the
Southwest Alaska coastline, and the Alaska Peninsula. These
onshore winds are raising concerns for coastal impacts (including
high surf and perhaps even minor coastal flooding) for south-
facing portions of the Western coast. A high wind watch has been
issued for portions of the Southwest coast and for the Cold Bay
area as the front passes. We are closely monitoring this storm as
it transitions from the long term forecast to the short term.
Southcentral should be spared the worst of the winds with this
storm, as the front will very likely be weakening by the time it
exits Southwest Alaska.

In addition to winds, there will also be plenty of moisture along
the front, which will bring periods of moderate to heavy
precipitation to the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest
Alaska. Given the strong winds associated with the front,
precipitation totals will depend on not on the duration of the
front over the area, but also its interaction with terrain
features including orographic lift and areas of downsloping that
would reduce precipitation totals. While warm air advection will
likely keep precipitation mostly rain for the majority of
Southwest Alaska, colder air lingering in Southcentral could mean
that lower elevation areas may see snow.

After this Bering low moves north and the front weakens,
southwesterly flow dominates the Bering Sea with embedded surface
lows that will continue to keep weather active with at least
periods of gale force winds across the Bering. However, resolving
these features are less clear through early next week.

The front could continue into Southcentral, bringing precipitation
to the region this weekend. Low confidence on the forecast
amounts as models vary with its progression eastward. Otherwise
high pressure begins to builds across the area Sunday until
midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...While steady precipitation has come to an end for the
terminal, about a 20 to 40 percent chance of rain/snow showers
lingers through the rest of the afternoon and evening as weak
upper level waves move through. Ceilings will likely be
predominantly VFR, except for periods of MVFR ceilings as showers
move through. Southerly winds turn clockwise through the afternoon
and evening, becoming northerly at around 10 kt close to midnight
tonight.

&&


$$