Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

631
FXAK68 PAFC 090058
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Thursday)...

A upper-level trough is driving southeast over Southcentral this
afternoon, promoting the widespread continuous rainfall from
Anchorage up the Susitna Valley and into the Copper River Basin.
Gusty southerly gap winds are still holding on through the Copper
Basin and along parts of the Turnagain Arm and Anchorage area,
but they should trend down quickly as the incoming trough to our
west erodes the coastal pressure gradient. In addition to the
showers, there is the chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two
(around a 30% chance) across parts of the northern Kenai
Peninsula, Mat-Su Valleys, and perhaps even Anchorage this
afternoon, with the likelihood of these diminishing with the rain
potential later this evening. This evening, westerly winds will
increase into Kachemak Bay, rising the sea-state in the Outer Bay.
This does not coincide with a high tide cycle so significant
coastal erosion impacts are not expected.

Looking ahead, the pattern will reset once again to something more
akin to summer than to fall. By tonight, the main trough moving
past us from Southwest will dip southeast into the Gulf as a
strong ridge begins to build back into place across the Bering Sea
and Southwest. This will put Southcentral back into a zone of
brisk northwesterly flow aloft, supporting gusty offshore gap
winds out of the typical valleys and fjords along the Gulf Coast
starting late tonight into early Wednesday. Lingering showers will
clear out overnight from west to east along with some of the cloud
cover in place as drier air works in from the north. Temperatures
will rebound back into the 60s for most lower elevations for
Wednesday afternoon, especially where offshore winds and
downslope warming in the lee of the mountains continues along the
coast for spots like Whittier and Seward. Little in the way of
significant meteorological impacts expected through the latter
portion of the week with the shift towards drier and warmer
weather.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today, Tuesday through Friday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* Showers continue across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska
  Peninsula today before gradually diminishing tonight as the
  upper low exits east.

* A building ridge brings quieter conditions Wednesday, while a
  strong front moves into the western Bering and Aleutians.

* Elevated water levels are expected along the Kuskokwim River and
  Kuskokwim Delta coast Thursday and Friday. High river levels
  combined with storm surge may produce bankfull conditions or
  minor flooding near Tuntutuliak, while strong onshore winds
  could produce coastal erosion and minor coastal flooding along
  the Delta Coast.

* The strongest winds with the approaching system remain focused
  over the Bering and Aleutians as the front encounters a
  resistant ridge over Southwest Alaska.


Discussion:

For the remainder of this afternoon, the vertically stacked low
continues to move east from Bristol Bay toward Southcentral
Alaska. Scattered showers remain across portions of Southwest
Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula, with precipitation becoming
increasingly focused along the western Alaska Range as westerly
flow increases. An isolated lighting strike remains possible north
of King Salmon, though limited instability will keep the threat
low. Showers and winds gradually diminish this evening as the low
continues east.

A pronounced pattern change begins tonight into Wednesday as
upper-level ridging builds across the Bering and expands east
across Southwest Alaska. This will promote generally quieter and
drier conditions across Southwest and the eastern Aleutians
Wednesday, although areas of low clouds and fog will remain
possible beneath the ridge. Meanwhile, a deep low tracking from
Kamchatka toward eastern Siberia sends a strong front into the
western Bering and western Aleutians. Increasing southerly winds
and rain spread into the western Aleutians Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

The ridge remains rather stout across Southwest Alaska Thursday
while the Bering front presses slowly eastward. Guidance continues
to favor the ridge resisting the eastward progression of the
front, keeping the strongest winds primarily across the western
and central Bering. Nevertheless, periods of small-craft to gale-
force winds and rain will accompany the front as it advances
across the Aleutians and toward the Pribilof Islands.

By Thursday night into Friday, the upper ridge begins to shift
east as the front makes additional progress toward the eastern
Bering and Southwest coast. Southwesterly winds increase along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, with rain spreading into western portions
of Southwest Alaska. The combination of high water moving down the
Kuskokwim River and storm surge moving upriver could result in
bankfull conditions or minor flooding near Tuntutuliak during high
tide Thursday and Friday. Along the Kuskokwim Delta coast, strong
onshore winds could also result in coastal erosion and minor
coastal flooding from Kongiganak northward through Toksook Bay and
Tununak. A Hydrologic Outlook has been issued for these concerns.
The front should continue to weaken as it encounters the ridge,
with uncertainty remaining in exactly how quickly precipitation
and stronger winds progress inland through Friday afternoon.

LM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The low pressure system that is set to bring widespread gusty
winds and rainfall across western Alaska this week will continue
in its eastward track into the Beaufort Sea through this weekend.
Its associated frontal system significantly weakens as it moves
inland across interior Southwest Alaska with the strong upper
ridge and drier conditions lingering across the Gulf and
Southcentral for Saturday.

Despite the weaker, more zonal flow, the pattern remains active
through the weekend as an additional shortwave in the Bering
quickly moves inland and across Southern Alaska. Despite models
varying on the exact strength and timing, this system is generally
expected to bring the next round of rainfall across the
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska Saturday. This
system quickly shifts east and brings the potential for rainfall
across much of Southcentral by late Saturday into Sunday.

Despite increasing model spread heading into next week,
confidence continues to increase for the pattern to once again
become more amplified by the end of the weekend into early next
week. The next shortwave emerges off of Kamchatka and enters the
western Bering where it is expected to interact and phase with
energy lifting north out of the Pacific. As a result, the next
round of potentially strong southerly winds and heavy rainfall
will be possible across the Aleutian Chain beginning Sunday
through the early part of next week as a strengthening low moves
into the southern Bering. Meanwhile, the upper ridge centered over
the North Pacific and southern Gulf strengthens across the
southern Mainland through early next week, bringing a period of
drier weather.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday.
However, lingering showers may allow for MVFR ceilings at times,
especially between 00z and 04z as the upper-level trough
responsible for the shower activity moves from the Susitna Valley
into the Copper River Basin. Northwesterly winds at less than 10
kt this evening will diminish tonight with light and variable
winds through mid-morning Wednesday. By late Wednesday morning,
expect light northwesterly winds to redevelop. There is a chance
(20%) for patchy fog to develop around the terminal by early
Wednesday morning, especially if any lingering low cloud cover
near the terminal diminishes after midnight and radiational
cooling allows for colder overnight temperatures.

-TM


&&


$$