Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

995
FXAK68 PAFC 091241
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKDT Thu Jul 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Thursday - Saturday night)...

There are two distinct upper-level shortwaves of note on satellite
imagery this morning. The first is a weaker trough, situated over
interior Southwest Alaska. This feature is producing a few
scattered showers as far south as western Kenai Peninsula as it
continues to quickly move southward, wrapping around the back edge
of a deeper upper-level low exiting the Gulf of Alaska. The
second shortwave is the more potent of the two, maintaining
strength as it moves east to west along the Alaska Range this
morning. Models are finally coming into better agreement with the
track of this wave, all trending to the more northward placement
of the main area of precipitation. This solution is verifying
based on radar returns from the Pedro Dome radar near Fairbanks.

Both shortwaves will phase near Cook Inlet later this morning,
tracking into the western Gulf late tonight. This evolution and
track will likely lead to the steadiest or rain to fall from the
northern Copper River Basin west to the Susitna Valley. Although
lighter in intensity, rain will also overspread the Matanuska
Valley south through the Anchorage Bowl and Cook Inlet region by
later this morning.

As the trough exits into the Gulf Thursday night, drier air and
weak ridging will begin to build into Southcentral. This will
lead to decreasing shower coverage and a warming trend on Friday.
Afternoon temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper
70s for many lower elevation locations, including Homer, Seward,
Valdez, Kodiak, and Cordova. Developing northerly flow aloft will
also support gusty gap winds through favored terrain, while much
of the region experiences warmer and drier conditions for Friday.

A weak wave may move over the Copper River Basin on Friday morning
leading to another period of showers for the region. Currently,
only the Canadian (GEM/RGEM) model is indicating this possibility.
As such, any additional precipitation Friday morning is low
confidence.

By Saturday, the ridge shifts east as another Gulf system
approaches. A frontal system will move from the AKPen to the
western Gulf with rain for Kodiak Island by early Saturday
morning. The front does look a bit slower in its eastward push
than in previous model runs, due to a stronger ridge downstream.
Nonetheless, showers look to reach the Kenai Peninsula by late
Saturday with a few scattered showers farther inland, especially
along the western flank of the Talkeetna Mountains, where
increased instability may lend to an isolated thunderstorm from
east of Talkeetna north to the Denali Highway. as the front
approaches, gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will increase
along the Gulf Coast and adjacent marine areas. Gusty
southeasterly gap winds along Turnagain Arm and the Knik and
Copper River Valleys will also be on the increase by Saturday
afternoon as a coastal ridge builds out ahead of the front.

LM/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)...

Showers across the Kuskokwim Valley today will become more
confined to the Western Alaska Range by tonight as the Kuskokwim
Delta and the Bristol Bay Coast see drier conditions today. Trends
with the North Pacific low, compared to yesterday`s forecast,
have indeed trended farther north, and thus, wetter for mainland
Southwest Alaska for Friday and Saturday. First, the low`s front
lifts to Adak/Atka by late this morning into the early afternoon
hours and brings light to moderate rain to the area. Rain then
spreads east to Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan by this evening and to
the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and Pribilof Islands by
early Friday morning.

There is the possibility for marine lightning and isolated
thunderstorms today beginning across the marine zones around
Adak/Atka. Don`t be surprised to hear a clap or two of thunder
across both Adak and Atka today. The marine lightning threat then
moves east to northeast by tonight with the Bering marine zones
north of Nikolski potentially seeing isolated thunderstorms. The
lightning threat then shifts farther northeast where the coastal
waters of the Pribilof Islands for Friday morning and to the outer
coastal zone of the Kuskokwim Delta by Friday afternoon. Details
are still somewhat murky on the marine lightning potential so stay
tuned for forecast updates regarding this in the next package.

Regarding the Southwest Mainland forecast, the area remains dry
through Friday morning. Steady rain advances northeast to Nunivak
Island by early Friday afternoon and to the rest of the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast by late Friday afternoon. Then, rain spreads to the
Interior Kuskokwim Delta, Bristol Bay, and up the AKPEN Friday
night and into Saturday morning. Steady rain moves to the
Kuskokwim Valley and Western Alaska Range through the rest of
Saturday as the eastern Bering low moves inland. There is some
lingering uncertainty as to how long steady rains will last across
the Southwestern Mainland on Saturday. The general trend is for
steady rain to taper off to showers through Saturday. Steady rain
will linger the longest along eastern portions of the Kuskokwim
Valley and Western Alaska Range.

A shortwave rounding the base of the trough now situated in the
Bering on Saturday will help to keep showers somewhat enhanced
across the Pribilof Islands and coastal Southwest most of the day
Saturday, despite the steady rain moving off to the east.
Unsettled conditions conditions continue across Southwest for
Sunday as the Bering trough begins to move inland. The Bering and
Aleutians also remain unsettled as numerous shortwaves embedded in
the mean flow move across the area.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Starting off the long term forecast is a continuation of the
active pattern in Alaska. A longwave trough with many embedded
shortwaves will move over the Alaska Mainland on Sunday. This
will bring widespread rainfall to much of the Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska Mainlands. Wind speeds will remain relatively
light overland, but will be elevated over coastlines and ocean.
Meanwhile, ridging builds into the Bering, likely leading to
widespread low stratus and fog that extends into the Aleutians and
Pribilof Islands. By Monday, some kind of a low or trough will
move into the Bering. This will push the ridge eastward and will
trigger more active weather into the Bering. The ridge will
briefly decrease activity over the Mainland before features move
in late Monday into Tuesday. There is much uncertainty with
features afterwards, but it is likely that more shortwaves or lows
will move into the Mainland of Alaska, bringing widespread
rainfall and elevated winds.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Light winds, shifting from the south this morning to the
west by afternoon then back to the south tonight, will prevail
through the TAF period. A shortwave disturbance moving in from the
north could bring periods steady rain into the terminal by mid to
late morning. Ceilings will remain mostly VFR, but periods of
MVFR or even IFR ceilings are possible in heavier showers. Showers
will taper off by around 0Z this afternoon, with VFR conditions
persisting thereafter.

&&


$$