Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXAK68 PAFC 120223
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
623 PM AKDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Saturday)...

Cold, northerly flow between a blocking high pressure over the
Bering Sea and a deep trough extending across the Gulf and
Northeast Pacific continues to keep sunny but seasonably cold
conditions around for Southcentral. Gusty gap flow through the
typical spots in this pattern (including Valdez, Whittier and
Seward) have not really let up today, likely due in part to
multiple upper-level impulses still moving south into the
northern Gulf this afternoon. Very cold temperatures below zero
over interior valleys are on track to return again tonight after
sunset. As such, Wind Chill Advisories remain in effect through
early Thursday afternoon where winds through mountain gaps and
passes are anticipated to persist in combination with the cold air
temperatures. The entire region remains dry and mostly cloud-free,
with the exception of a few snow showers wrapping around a
mesoscale low moving south of Middleton Island.

By Thursday, northerly flow will begin to relax as the ridge out
west is disrupted by a shortwave trough moving into the eastern
Bering and as the complex low in the gulf steadily weakens. This
should greatly reduce the threat for cold wind chill values to
return Thursday night for spots such as Seward, Valdez and
Whittier given a return to much weaker winds. Calm winds and still
mostly clear skies will, however, allow temperatures to again drop
into the -0s to -20s for the overnight hours tomorrow night,
particularly near low spots over interior valleys.

Cloud cover will begin to increase between Thursday and Friday out
ahead of a sharp, digging trough approaching the western Alaska
Range. Southwesterly flow ahead of this trough is likely to pull
moisture near the meandering Gulf low north into the Prince
William Sound and Copper Basin. Chances for light snow along this
corridor will increase as the day progresses on Saturday, mainly
along/east of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. Low temperatures
late Friday night into early Saturday should also not be as
bitterly cold given the potential for increased cloud cover to
limit radiational cooling after dark.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Friday)...

The persistent cold northerly flow continues over Southwest
Alaska and the Bering Sea. Generally, much of interior Southwest
Alaska and the western Bering Sea will continue to stay dry,
while the Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska Peninsula, and eastern Aleutians
will contend with snow showers and blowing snow as shortwaves
track southwards around the ridge and across western AK and the
eastern Bering Sea. Gusty northwesterly winds across the Alaska
Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians have decreased since this morning
and will continue to do so through tonight. A shortwave dropping
out of the northern Bering this evening will bring a renewed push
of light snow to the Kuskokwim Coastline, Nunivak Island, and
Alaska Peninsula.

This system will round the top of the ridge before tracking south
across the Kuskokwim Delta this evening through the overnight
hours, bringing light snowfall to Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim
Delta through Wednesday night. While winds and snow amounts
associated with this system are fairly unimpressive, conditions
will still be favorable to see periods of mild blowing snow and
reduced visibilities along the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Nunivak
Island. As this system tracks south tonight, expect another round
of snow for the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through
tonight into Thursday. The airmass behind this system doesn`t
look nearly as cold as what is in place right now, thus, winds
will be weaker, temperatures/wind chills more moderate, with less
heavy freezing spray for marine areas. Snow showers across the
Kuskokwim Delta will be reinvigorated again Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night as a deeper, more defined upper level wave
takes a similar track across the eastern Bering and across the
AKPen. Snow showers along the AKPen and eastern Aleutians will
continue through Friday as northerly flow persists and the
blocking ridge out west remains.

-JH/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

The long-term forecast begins late Saturday with the persistent
upper-level ridge over the western Bering and Aleutians remaining
firmly entrenched over the region. Downstream, a positively tilted
upper-level trough digs southeast, with an embedded shortwave over
the Interior elongating as it reaches the Southern Mainland. With
the upper-level trough axis draped over the Alaska Range and
Alaska Peninsula, diffluence and a strengthening southerly flow
ahead of the trough axis will likely allow for both a surface
trough/low and moisture from the Gulf to be lifted northward
across coastal Southcentral late Saturday night into Sunday. How
these features interact, the amount of moisture, and timing of any
precipitation is still fairly uncertain; however, there is the
potential for light snow across portions of interior Southcentral
with steadier snow and wind for coastal locations.

Another complicating factor will be a secondary upper-level trough
digging south on the heels of the first for Sunday. This feature
looks more potent in recent model runs, digging south a bit
farther west than the first trough. If this solution holds, this
second trough would likely help further enhance the surface
trough/low over the northwestern Gulf and draw up more moisture
in the form of snow for Southcentral and Kodiak Island through
Monday. Moreover, this trough will usher in yet another round of
arctic air and gusty northerly winds into Southwest Alaska.

Uncertainty grows by the start of next week as to how quickly this
trough closes off into an upper-level low as it moves south over
the Gulf. If this feature does move quickly into the Gulf, any
snow will likely follow suit and taper off across the Southcentral
coast as the arctic airmass moves in. If the trough lingers,
expect snow to linger with a slight delay in arrival of arctic air
and strongest of gap winds.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and winds under 10 kts will persist through
the TAF period.

&&


$$