Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

615
FXAK68 PAFC 060122
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 PM AKDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows the stacked low out in the
Gulf is starting to dip southwards as the surface low weakens and
eventually merges with a new surface low that is currently
developing further east. As the new surface low becomes more
established, the upper low will move out into the central Gulf where
is will wobble around while slowly moving eastwards towards the
Southeast AK coastline by Tuesday evening. This system brought
abundant cloud cover to Southcentral with widespread rain mainly
confined to the northern Gulf coast, including the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Prince William Sound. More scattered showers were
found inland for the Copper Basin westward to the Mat-Su as the
easterly wave pushed westwards. Convective showers should taper off
later this evening as diurnal heating ends and the wave moves out of
the region.

As the Gulf low pulls away from the western Gulf, clouds will begin
to clear out as shortwave ridging begins to build in from the west.
This will allow for a warmer day for most of Southcentral both
tomorrow and again on Tuesday. Monday continues to look more active
as northeasterly flow develops across Southcentral in between the
low and a building ridge to the north over the Interior. This will
help drag a much warmer and a more unstable airmass south into the
region, supporting a more significant threat for afternoon
thunderstorms. An easterly wave rotating across the Chugach
Mountains around the north side of the low will provide extra lift
and forcing to help initiate convection. This feature will also
provide enhanced easterly flow and up to 25 kts of deep layer wind
shear, enough to support some slightly more organized storm clusters
that should initially develop over and near the Talkeetna Mountains.
Steering flow will easily be strong enough to pull initial storm
clusters west into the Mat-Su Valleys during the afternoon and
evening. Even Anchorage will have a chance (around 20-30%) to see a
thunderstorm moving off of the Hillside into lower elevations during
the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Tuesday, Southcentral will shift back into a col (a gap in
between larger weather systems) along with much weaker winds aloft.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will again be possible during the
afternoon and evening, especially along and near the various
mountain ranges. The northern Susitna Valley and Talkeetnas will
again have the best shot at seeing lighting activity. Otherwise,
expect another very warm day afternoon in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the interior valleys.

-AS/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday night)...

Cloudy, cool, and moist for much of the Bering Sea and Aleutian
Islands as an upper low and various upper level features transit
the region through Tuesday. For Southwest Alaska, a return to
summer-like conditions with warmer temperatures and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms from Kuskokwim
Valley south into interior Bristol Bay could produce frequent
lightning, especially on Monday afternoon.

A low situated in the southwestern Gulf of Alaska and high
pressure ridging over the north/central Interior work together to
push multiple shortwaves across the Southwest Mainland today and
tomorrow. Increased instability and warmer temperatures will ramp
up convective activity this afternoon and Monday afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon,
becoming widely scattered Monday afternoon, with highest potential
along the lower Kuskokwim Valley and central/northeastern Bristol
Bay. Conditions begin to stabilize on Tuesday with the approach of
a Bering Sea front.

A second low currently in the western Bering tracks east towards
the Y-K Delta over the next few days. The frontal boundary
stretches across the Central Aleutians, producing rounds of rain
showers along the Western/Central Aleutians. The front will reach
the Eastern Aleutians late tonight and then the Pribilof Islands
and southern Alaska Peninsula Monday afternoon, extending the
areas of precipitation east. Conditions are drier behind the
front, though lower cloud ceilings are likely to persist. The
front moves into Southwest Alaska as the low center cross the
Pribilof Islands Tuesday morning, pushing steady, widespread rain
and clouds into Southwest Tuesday afternoon, allowing for a more
stable atmosphere and decreased thunderstorm potential.

-KM/KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An upper level low in the Gulf will bring clouds with showers to
southcentral Alaska. The low exits the region before Friday. At
the same time, an upper level ridge builds over the ALCAN. Waves
of energy embedded in the ridge keeps the threat for showers
through Sunday, with breaks of sun. Depending on daytime heating,
the Copper River Basin has the chance of scattered thunderstorms
from the waves.

A series of weak Bering lows will bring clouds with periods of
rain to the Aleutians through Saturday. Model agreement is low
with the track of these systems, but the highest confidence of
impacts are between Adak and Unalaska. Friday sees the development
of a Kamchatka low, which will travel to Bristol Bay late Sunday,
generating a period of rain for Southwest Alaska.

-SS

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF
period. Turnagain Arm winds are expected to kick in again by late
afternoon though they will not be as strong as yesterday, with
southeasterly gusts up to 20 kts. These Turnagain winds will
diminish through the overnight hours with southwesterly winds
expected for the daytime hours Monday.

&&


$$