Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

621
FXAK68 PAFC 042344
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
344 PM AKDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3)...

A longwave, upper-level trough continues to become more negatively
tilted as it begins to elongate and extend south across Kodiak
Island and into the western Gulf. There continues to be two
compact surface lows in the Gulf, one tracking west along the
northern Gulf coast and into Prince William Sound by this evening,
and the other just to the east of Kodiak Island. Snow showers will
continue to overspread the southern half of the Kenai Peninsula
through the weekend as the surface low in the western Gulf lifts
northwards towards Augustine Island before weakening and shifting
back to the south. To the east, steadier precipitation visible on
radar imagery continues to spread east to west across Prince
William Sound this afternoon through this evening as the low
tracks inland. Similar to what has been observed in Cordova this
afternoon, expect snow to change to a rain/snow mix for Whittier
through this afternoon and evening as easterly winds increase.

Snowfall amounts will range quite a bit across Prince William
Sound and Cook Inlet through the weekend and will be highly
dependent on the intensity of snow showers and the timing of the
more steady precipitation. Light snow showers falling at the
height of day will yield will not produce any accumulation due to
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 30s. Overnight snow
showers will likely yield less than an inch of accumulation
across the western Kenai Peninsula and other coastal communities
and one to three inches for Portage, east Turnagain arm, and
Turnagain Pass through Sunday morning.

The precipitation will come to an end Monday as the upper level
trough exits to the east. Colder air aloft, combined with an
increasing pressure gradient along the coast, will result in an
increase in gap winds for typical locations along the coast --
Seward, Whittier, etc.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

A stalled upper level low over Southwest continues to promote
bands of snow showers in the region, most prominently over the
Kuskokwim Delta. Much of this snowfall has remained quite light in
intensity, but it has been quite persistent across the Kuskokwim
Delta and Lower Kuskokwim Valley over the past couple days. Expect
about another inch of snow in this area tonight, as the showers
steadily diminish through tonight. Across the Bering, a ridge of
high pressure is keeping conditions more muted across the eastern
parts of the Aleutians, AKPen and Pribilofs today, where low
marine stratus and weak winds are prevailing. Farther west, a
frontal boundary is making headway into the southwest corner of
the Bering Sea, sending a corridor of rain and high-end Small
Craft level winds across the Near Islands.

With regards to the aforementioned front coming to the Western
Bering, Adak is seeing steady light rain showers this afternoon
with the axis of the front currently over them. Southeast winds
in Small Craft range will march steadily across the Aleutian Chain
as the front moves along, eventually reaching the Fox Islands and
southern end of the AKPen by Monday morning. The dominant
precipitation type associated with this front will be rain falling
near sea level as the front heads across the Aleutians. Farther
north, cooler air could hang on for much longer across the
Pribilofs, where several inches of accumulating snow is expected
as the front approaches from Sunday morning to Monday morning.
Areas of blowing snow and reduced visibility will be possible at
times as snow and gusty southeast winds move in on Sunday,
depending on whether surface temperatures are able to stay below
freezing. The front will continue towards the Southwest coast late
in the day on Monday, however with the persistent southeasterly
flow, the presence of snow will be quick if it shows up. Areas of
blowing snow may be possible during periods of gustier winds.

-CL

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A more active, progressive pattern looks likely by mid-week with
periods of increased cloud cover and chances for precipitation
across the Aleutians and much of the southern Mainland. Models are
in fair agreement through the first half of the period as an
upper level trough and accompanying surface low push precipitation
east across the state Wednesday and Thursday. Out west, a
Kamchatka low sends a front across the Aleutian Chain Thursday and
Friday, but the front weakens before reaching Alaska`s west
coast. Models begin to diverge late in the week with increasing
uncertainty regarding the timing and placement of upper level
shortwaves interacting over the Bering Sea and North Pacific. A
slight warming trend and seasonable temperatures are expected to
continue through the long- term across both Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through most of
the TAF period. Late this evening, ceilings will begin to lower
to near 5000` out ahead of a Gulf low that will start to move in
for Sunday morning. There is potential for MVFR ceilings/vis over
the terminal early Sunday morning in snow showers. However, the
potential for snow showers appears a little less likely than it
did earlier.

&&


$$