Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

526
FXAK68 PAFC 050226
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
526 PM AKST Wed Nov 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The area of low pressure that brought the strong winds and rain
to the Southcentral coast overnight has moved over Lake Iliamna
and is now rapidly weakening this afternoon. As such, winds have
diminished significantly throughout this morning, with a few
lingering gusts around 25 mph this afternoon from the Mat-Su
down across northern Cook Inlet.

While the low has moved inland to the west, two distinct troughs
over the region is allowing for shower activity to persist across
Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula. The first of these
troughs is positioned along the immediate coast from Cordova to
the Alaska Panhandle and is being pulled westward, embedded in the
southeasterly flow ahead of the main trough. The second trough, is
situated just east of Kodiak Island and is nearly stationary this
afternoon as the attendant upper-level trough elongates and stalls
with a negatively tilted trough axis extending from the southwest
Alaska coast to Kodiak Island.

The upper-level trough will lift north and move over Southcentral
by early Thursday morning as a second feature moves in from the
North Pacific, taking its place. A continued southeasterly flow
will allow showers to persist over the coastal mountains, with a
few scattered showers pushing inland over the mountains Thursday
morning as the trough moves through. Much like the previous night,
temperatures will fall to around freezing around the Willow area,
and perhaps across east Anchorage, allowing for the potential for
some isolated pockets of very light freezing rain. Any wintry mix
of precipitation that does fall north and west of the coastal
mountains should once again be short-lived as temperatures quickly
warm above freezing by mid-morning Thursday.

Showers taper off Thursday afternoon as the troughs weaken and
lift farther north, resulting in an upper-level col or a weak
transient ridge building over interior Southcentral through
Friday.

By Thursday afternoon, another North Pacific low will deepen as
it lifts north into the Central Gulf. As of this morning, models
continue to keep the bulk of the impacts from this low over open
and coastal waters along the northeast Gulf with very little
working into Southcentral. The low will then retrograde back to
the west, nearing Middleton Island on Friday and near Prince
William Sound by Saturday...bringing increased chances for
precipitation along the coast and increased winds over the near-
coastal waters.

- TM/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A low in the Gulf is bringing periods of rain and snow over the
Western Alaska Range to the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest, with
a chance for snow over the Southwest interior. No accumulation is
expected given the lack of significant moisture associated with
the remnants of the wave over the mountains. As this system
weakens overnight and through Thursday, any areas of lingering
precipitation will end.

A low pressure system sitting in the northwestern Bering Sea
continues to spin about, bringing cool, northwesterly flow across
the central and southern Bering. This cooler air is promoting
widespread convectively driven showers across the area, with some
islands along the Chain seeing periods of snowfall. Significant
snowfall is not expected with this set-up, and the majority of the
region will remain rain at the surface.

This low will drive southeastward toward the Chain, eventually
crossing into the Northern Pacific by Friday morning. It is set
to bring Gale force winds west of Nikolski Thursday night into
Friday morning. There is a slight chance (10%) of some offshore
marine areas north of the Chain reaching Storm force winds. The
system exits south and crosses over the Aleutian chain into the
North Pacific as it weakens.

Friday night, a front ahead of a North Pacific low approaches
Shemya. The deterministic models are in disagreement on how close
the system will approach. There is model consensus of the front
becoming west-east oriented before reaching the Rat Islands, and
staying south of the remaining Aleutian chain through the weekend.
Models could shift the front and its parent low to the north and
bring Gale force winds to the Aleutian Chain.

- SS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Minor changes from previous discussion. A broad upper trough will
be established from the eastern Bering into the eastern Gulf
through midweek. Several disturbances and surface lows will travel
along the upper longwave trough then the flow will be directed
south of much of the Aleutian Chain and then northeastward into
the eastern Gulf of Alaska. Southwest Alaska will be the focus for
more active weather from Saturday into early next week, though
coastal showers, elevation snow, and periods of gusty gap winds
appear likely for the Gulf coast, especially the Prince William
Sound region. Further inland, drier and cooler conditions remain
favorable. Out west, persistent northerly flow will be common
across the Bering with scattered convective showers possible as
well as elevated gap winds through the Aleutian Chain.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Winds will remain generally out of the north at 5-10 kts. Some
very light rain is possible (20-30% chance) this afternoon if
showers make it over the mountains as cross barrier winds weaken.
Even if they do make it over, no reduction to flight category is
expected.


&&


$$