Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

300
FXAK68 PAFC 010133
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
533 PM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* Generally expect warm and dry conditions through about midday
  Sunday. Then, a transition to windier and wet weather as a storm
  system approaches from late Sunday through early next week.

* Heat Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage, Mat-Su, and parts
  of Kenai Peninsula and Copper River Valley into the weekend.

* NEW: Flood Watch is in effect for Susitna and lower Matanuska
  Valleys from Tuesday morning through Friday morning, due to
  heavy rain.

Diving into the details... an upper ridge extends across
Southcentral Alaska and will persist through Sunday morning. High
pressure will lead to subsidence, clear skies, and abundant
daytime heating. As such, temperatures are forecast to climb into
the 70s and 80s for lower elevation portions of the Mainland
through the weekend. Cooler temperatures will prevail along the
coast, where cooler ocean waters will help generate a sea breeze.
One thing that could throw a wrench in the temperature forecast is
a deck of stratus that is currently drifting along the north Gulf
coast and around Kodiak Island. Hi-res model guidance suggests
that this stratus, along with areas of fog, could wind its way up
Cook Inlet tonight and tomorrow night. If this happens, lingering
cloud cover during the day could suppress daytime highs and lead
to cooler temperatures than currently forecast.

From Sunday into Monday, a low in the Bering Strait will begin to
influence weather in Southcentral. Winds will pick up by Sunday
evening--especially through southeasterly gaps and into
Anchorage, Palmer, and central Copper River Valley--as the surface
pressure gradient tightens and reorients ahead of this incoming
low. The main concern, however, will be rain amounts, for which a
Flood Watch is in effect. While confidence is high that this late
weekend/early workweek storm will advect a lot of moisture and
lead to areas of heavy rain, exact amounts and timing are
difficult to pinpoint at this time. This will ultimately depend on
how quickly the incoming low and its front can displace the ridge
over Southcentral. For the current forecast, we`ve leaned towards
the higher-end model solutions and, thus, towards a higher rain
forecast. The alternate scenario, as favored by the latest runs of
the GFS and NAM, suggest a later arrival of rain and the potential
for lower rain amounts. Regardless, there is enough model
consensus to suggest that Southcentral will almost certainly see
areas of heavy rain early next week, enough to raise flooding
concerns. Stay tuned to the forecast, and safely enjoy this
weekend`s warmer weather before our deluge arrives early next
week.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Monday)...

A ridge in Southwest Alaska continues to push eastward and a
shortwave trough moves in behind it. This means that cloud cover
will increase and a 40 to 60% chance of rain for coastal Southwest
Alaska arises this evening into Saturday morning. In the Bering,
another ridge is causing widespread low stratus and fog to occur
west of the Alaska Peninsula. These features will progress
eastward over the weekend and into next week. Wind speeds will be
relatively light for inland areas through Saturday before the next
front moves in.

By Saturday afternoon, the low will be shunted southward as it
runs into the ridge that was formerly over Southwest Alaska and is
now stalled over Southcentral Alaska. This will allow for rain
chances to diminish and a return to clearer skies for the
Southwest Mainland. The Bering will see a low push in from the
west, moving north of Shemya by early Sunday morning. Its front
will spread over the Bering throughout Sunday, bringing small
craft and potentially gale force winds to the Aleutians and
Pribilof Islands by Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. This
will also disrupt the processes needed for widespread fog and
stratus, but there still could be pockets of low clouds. By late
Sunday, the front will push into the Southwest Mainland, leading
to widespread rain and gusty winds, especially along the coast.
Due to ridging over eastern Alaska, the front will stall over the
mainland, allowing widespread rainfall to continue on Monday. As
the low follows behind the front, a second round of gusty winds
potentially up to gale force will move into the Pribilof Islands
on Monday. High temperatures will slowly cool over the next few
days due to cloud cover and rain, going from the upper 60s and mid
70s inland to the low 60s and the upper 60s and low 70s for
inland areas.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

An active and progressive weather pattern will remain in place
through the long term as a broad upper low lingers over western
Alaska. Several embedded shortwaves rotating around the parent
circulation will move northeast across Southcentral through the
week, supporting periodic rounds of showers and keeping conditions
generally cool and unsettled. A tightening pressure gradient will
also allow the typical gap winds to return beginning Tuesday, with
elevated southerly winds expected through Turnagain Arm, Knik, and
other favored terrain gaps through the end of the forecast period. While
confidence remains high in the overall pattern, uncertainty
increases later in the week regarding the timing and placement of
individual shortwaves and associated precipitation.

On Tuesday, a moist southwesterly flow will continue to direct
periods of rain cross much of Southcentral Alaska. The steadiest
rainfall is expected along the Gulf Coast and windward terrain
where upslope enhancement will maximize precipitation totals,
while inland locations see more intermittent showers. Model
guidance is generally in good agreement on widespread
precipitation, though the GFS is somewhat drier across Anchorage
Bowl and portions of the western Kenai Peninsula, likely owing to
stronger downsloping off the Chugach Mountains in its solution.
The ECMWF and Canadian maintain broader precipitation coverage
across the Anchorage area, lending higher confidence to at least
scattered showers.

By Wednesday, another shortwave rotating around the upper low will
reinforce the unsettled pattern with another round of showers
developing across Southcentral. Rainfall coverage becomes
somewhat more scattered compared to Tuesday, though locally
heavier showers remain possible, especially near the mountains and
Gulf-facing terrain. Differences between the guidance persist,
with the GFS continuing to favor a relative precipitation minimum
near Anchorage due to downsloping, while the ECMWF and Canadian
remain wetter across much of the area.

For Thursday, the upper low begins to slowly weaken and shift
eastward, though broad cyclonic flow remains over mainland Alaska.
Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow will support
scattered showers across much of the region. Shower coverage
becomes increasingly tied to the timing of these disturbances,
with breaks in precipitation possible between waves. The wetter
ECMWF and Canadian solutions continue to produce more widespread
showers across Southcentral, while the GFS remains the driest
guidance over Anchorage and adjacent lee-side areas where
downslope flow limits precipitation.

By Friday, the overall pattern changes little, with broad
troughing remaining in place and weak disturbances continuing to
rotate through the flow. Showers are expected to persist across
much of Southcentral, although rainfall should become more showery
than continuous. Model spread increase by the end of the period
regarding the exact evolution of the upper low and individual
shortwaves, but confidence remains moderate that temperatures will
stay near to slightly below seasonal normals with periodic chances
for rain continuing into next weekend.

Across the Aleutians and Bering, broad cyclonic flow and embedded
shortwaves will keep a cool, showery pattern in place through
Friday. Periods of rain will accompany passing disturbances, with
breezy conditions at times across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula before gradually diminishing later in the weak as the
upper low weakens.

LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Expect a
westerly afternoon and evening sea breeze today and Saturday.

&&


$$