Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

435
FXAK68 PAFC 080028
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKDT Fri Aug 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Flood Warning extended in time for the Yentna River including
  Lake Creek through 1PM tomorrow (Saturday).

- Warmer and mostly dry for Southcentral through Monday.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers possible in the
  Talkeetna and Wrangell Mountains through Monday. A lightning
  strike or two is possible in the Wrangell Mountains this evening
  and tomorrow afternoon.

Discussion:

High pressure over the Gulf continues to build across southern
Mainland as weakening low pressure over northern Alaska sends
mostly benign, weak shortwaves moving west to east across
Southcentral. While most of Southcentral is generally trending
warmer and drier, isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers
will linger near the Wrangell Mountains. The Wrangell Mountains
could see a lightning strike or two through this evening.
Afternoon showers are possible again tomorrow over the same area
as a weak surface low looks to develop over the Copper River
Basin. With a properly timed weak shortwave, a lightning strike or
two cannot be ruled out tomorrow afternoon.

Temperatures will be warm across the region into the workweek.
The warmest will be the Copper River Basin, where high
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s. Mat-Su, Anchorage,
and the Kenai Peninsula will be in the upper 60s to low 70s into
next week, with some mid 70s in the Susitna Valley. Coastal
regions around the Gulf, southern Cook Inlet, and Prince William
Sound as well as Kodiak Island warm to the mid to upper 60s
through early next week. Overnight lows will cool to the upper 40s
to low 50s. With high pressure overhead, some patchy overnight
fog may develop in the southern Cook Inlet tomorrow night.

The low over northern Alaska will continue to transit east in
northern Yukon Territory. Though flow weakens further for
Southcentral Sunday into Monday, additional shortwaves off that
low could dip south into Copper River Basin. With orographic lift,
afternoon showers may return Sunday and Monday along the
Talkeetna and Wrangell mountains.

PA/Rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Monday night)...

Key Messages:

* Areas of fog, dense at times, in and along the Bering Sea
  through at least Sunday morning.

* Temperatures trend warmer across Southwest Alaska and peak early
  next week. Expect daytime highs in the 70s for all but the
  immediate coast, with highs approaching 80 degrees for parts of the
  Kuskokwim Valley.

Discussion:

The upper level pattern features lows in far eastern Russia,
northern Alaska, and near Adak/Atka. Meanwhile, ridging extends
across much of the Bering Sea and Southern Alaska.

The primary weather concern for the Bering Sea will be fog and
low stratus. While satellite shows patches of clearer sky in the
Bering Sea, locations like Shemya, Saint Paul, and Saint George
remain socked in, with visibilities primarily below 1 mile due to
persistent fog. While there may be periods or pockets of clearing,
expect fog to persist through at least tomorrow morning. From
tomorrow through Monday night, the low in far eastern Russia will
slowly sag southwards across the Bering Sea, bringing rain showers
and areas of light to moderate rain. As the surface low will be
relatively weak, winds will largely remain below 25-30 kt. It
remains to be seen how this incoming feature will affect the fog
forecast; current thinking is that fog will linger, but may become
less dense as subsidence is reduced under lower pressure.
Overall, fog remains the most challenging aspect of the forecast.

For Southwest Alaska, expect a general warming trend as we head
into early next week. Rain chances will be greatest tomorrow as
the front of the far east Russian low grazes Kuskokwim Delta,
though rain will be largely limited to Kuskokwim Delta coast.
After the low retreats into the southern Bering Sunday evening,
increasing high pressure will allow daytime highs on Monday to
climb into the 70s for Kuskokwim Delta, into the mid 70s for
Bristol Bay, and into the high 70s to perhaps even the low 80s for
Kuskokwim Valley. These warm temperatures will likely continue
into Tuesday. With warmer temperatures on the horizon, it may be a
good idea to shift plans so that activities and people who may be
more sensitive to warmer temperatures can be done over the weekend
or later next week, when temperatures will be cooler. Note that
this will be a longer stretch of warmer temperatures too, with
temperatures unlikely to drop substantially until late in the
workweek. The good news, however, is that low temperatures will
dip into the high 40s to mid 50s, which will provide the
opportunity for some overnight cooling.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

As Tuesday begins, a weak area of high pressure over the southern
central Bering will persist, with weak troughs flanking to the
northwest over Kamchatka and to the south over the northern
Pacific. This will likely promote a continued pattern of
relatively stable conditions with widespread areas of low stratus
and fog potentially. There is moderate confidence (40-50%) of the
Kamchatka low pressure area dropping south over the western
Bering, aligning the ridge axis over the Bering to be more north-
south oriented. This would promote more unsettled conditions,
gustier winds, rainier weather over the western Aleutians
from Adak westward. By Thursday, model guidance spreads greatly,
but the general theme is a shift away from higher pressure into a
more unsettled pattern to most of the Aleutians through the end of
the work week.

Over the Southern Mainland of Alaska, weak areas of high and low
pressure are expected to remain through early next week. The
resulting weather will be diurnally- driven showers this weekend
into next week. This pattern supports more of a scattered shower
regime as opposed to widespread stratiform. The challenge will be
to gauge instability each afternoon to determine whether or not
lightning will be a threat with any robust showers that form.
Right now, it looks like the Copper River Basin, along the
Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western Alaska Range feature
the most instability through the long-term period. By Thursday and
Friday, weak ridging over the Gulf of Alaska may make way for
lower pressure systems to move in, allowing for a more showery and
windier pattern over Southcentral.

-CL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Stratus has continued to break up this morning but due to
the high pressure developing over the area, an MVFR cig may
develop. Otherwise calm winds and VFR conditions are expected.

&&

$$