Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

484
FXAK68 PAFC 100150
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
550 PM AKDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A deepening trough moves across Interior Alaska through this
evening resulting in rain showers and thunderstorms across the
Southcentral mainland. Unsettled conditions persist into Thursday
for Southcentral.

Southwest winds ahead of a surface cold front brought early
morning and afternoon rain showers across Southcentral with
amounts ranging from a few hundredths to a quarter of an inch
today. In its wake, partly cloudy skies for the Mat- Su Valley
and Copper River are expected. Partly sunny skies and northwest
winds behind a passing wave this afternoon and early evening allow
for isolated thunderstorms and rain showers in the Copper Basin.

The aforementioned trough crossing through the Susitna Valley to
Kenai Peninsula today slows down and stalls late this evening as
lows in the Gulf of Alaska and North Pacific hold firm. This will
allow for a second trough to move down the Alaska Range and over
the Southern Kenai Peninsula tomorrow. As it moves across the
Kenai Peninsula, unsettled conditions are expected across the
Susitna Valley, Kenai Peninsula and Copper Basin leading to rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Forecaster experience with this meteorological setup and
model trends has resulted in increased thunderstorm coverage in
both area and timing in these regions. Instability lingers
Thursday allowing for isolated rain showers and thunderstorms in
the Mat-Su Valley.

-Johnston

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday afternoon)...

The overall forecast remains on track. The main features to watch
will be a low pressure system pushing into the Aleutians west of
Adak, a ridge of high pressure lingering over the Bering Sea, and
a North Pacific low moving into the Alaska Peninsula on Friday. As
such, generally expect low clouds and fog across much of the
Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, with rain and sustained winds up
to about 30-40 mph along the far western Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. For Southwest Alaska, mainly clear and warming up under
the influence of the ridge, with a chance of afternoon/evening
rain showers and thunderstorms in the interior for Thursday and
Friday. No major hazards are anticipated.

Diving into the details... as mentioned with the previous forecast
discussion, a major forecast challenge over the coming days will
be the extent and thickness of fog (as low as 1/4 to 1 mile at
times) along the Bering Sea. The general weather pattern is
supportive of widespread low clouds and fog, but with a scarcity
of good observations across the Bering Sea, it`s difficult to
determine just how thick the fog is or will be. As such, have
leaned more aggressive with the fog forecast, and towards thicker
and more widespread fog than may actually be the case. On land
(Aleutian and Pribilof Islands, Alaska Peninsula, Southwest
coast), daytime heating will likely mix out the fog in the late
morning to early afternoon, though timing is uncertain. At the end
of the day, fog and low stratus behavior is highly dependent on
smaller-scale dynamics that are difficult for weather models to
represent, which makes the forecast challenging.

The other aspect of the forecast we`ll be monitoring is
thunderstorm potential on Thursday and Friday afternoons. The
warming trend in the interior late this week will promote a
thermally unstable environment, which will be favorable for the
development of afternoon convection and perhaps even
thunderstorms. The thing to watch will be upper level shortwaves
moving through Southwest Alaska, which will influence where
potential thunderstorms form and where they move. Overall, the
upper level forcing for these two days looks fairly weak and
chaotic, which suggests that developing convection may not be
particularly robust or lead to very many lightning strikes. The
trick will be to see how poorer upper level forcing balances out
with fairly good low-level instability.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

An upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf will remain nearly
stationary through Sunday and then move eastward by Monday. This
is important as it blocks an originating Pacific Low from going
into the eastern Gulf, which will bring showers for Southwest
Alaska and the eastern Aleutians through Tuesday. The combination
of the anticyclonic flow aloft from the ridge and cyclonic flow
from the low pressure system will enhance southerly flow ushering
in warm and moist air into the northern and western Gulf coast.
This is expected to bring precipitation to Southcentral Alaska,
the Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak Island. There is high confidence
that there will be periods of heavy rain for Kodiak Island through Prince
William Sound Saturday into Sunday. Lingering showers are possible
Monday through Tuesday as the southerly enhanced flow shuts off.
Forecast confidence is low for the western Aleutians.

-SS

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the TAF
period. While most of the shower activity is over, there is still
a chance for an occasional shower through the night. For tomorrow,
most of the shower activity is expected to be over the mountains
and not out by the airport. Winds will vary throughout today and
then turn southerly this evening into Wednesday. Speeds are
expected to remain less than 10 kts.

&&

$$