Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

896
FXAK68 PAFC 031246
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKDT Thu Sep 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Another pleasant fall day is in store today as the ridge remains
the main weather feature over the area. Some high clouds will
continue to move over the ridge axis but otherwise expect mostly
sunny skies for most areas. There is some marine stratus and fog
currently south of Kodiak that will likely push north through the
day, reaching Cook Inlet by tomorrow morning.

A pattern change will begin to take place on Friday as a broad low
out west tries to push into the ridge over the Mainland. Model
guidance disagrees on when this will occur, but it has trended
later and later with each successive model run. Eventually, likely
by late Friday or early Saturday morning, a stronger shortwave
will round the southern base of the trough and push the ridge far
enough east to bring rain back to the region. Additionally, a
coastal ridge will develop and some light gap winds will move into
the typical spots. This cross barrier flow will mitigate some of
the rain for lee-side areas on Saturday, but Kodiak, the Sound,
Cook Inlet areas and Mat-Su Valleys will likely get some light
rain out of the disturbance as it pushes through. For the
remainder the weekend southwesterly flow will continue, but only
light, isolated to scattered showers are expected.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

** The Special Weather Statement for elevated water levels along
 the Kuskokwim Delta coast remains in effect through this morning.
 Gusty southerly onshore winds will raise water levels 1 to 2 feet
 above the normal high tide line. Minor coastal erosion is
 possible.

** Strong, gusty winds will continue over Cold Bay through
 Thursday morning. Gusts up to 65 mph are possible at times.

A large occluded front extending off a broad low in the western
Bering Sea continues tracking eastward across the Bering Sea
towards Southwest Alaska. Gusty small craft winds with gale force
gusts have been observed along the front, and will continue
through today across the Eastern Aleutians, southern Alaska
Peninsula, and Southwest Coast. The eastward progression of the
front is displacing the vertically stacked ridge that has been in
place for the last couple of days to the south and east. Light to
moderate rain will fall along the front. On average, less than
half an inch of rainfall is expected for most areas, however, the
Western Capes, northern Bristol Bay coast, including Dillingham,
and the southern portions of the Southern AKPen may see rainfall
amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches.

In the wake of the front, southwesterly small crafts and low end
gales on the backside of the parent low will move across the
Western and Central Aleutians starting Thursday morning. Aloft,
the models show that the quasi-stationary, vertically stacked area
of low pressure will have shortwaves rotating around its outer
periphery. Not only will this help to enhance winds underneath the
forcing via momentum transport, but these waves will also act as
"kickers", which will help to give this low some forward momentum.
The global models are actually in great agreement heading into
Saturday morning and are picking up on the remnants of a tropical
system skirting just south of the Aleutian Chain. This system will
most likely track eastward with time across the North Pacific
waters as a larger upper level system to the north blocks any
northward progression and steers this low to the east.

KM/AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Next week will start out with a large upper level low over the
northern Bering Sea with the upper level ridge over the
southeastern most parts of the Panhandle. A shortwave extending
out of the low and over the Alaska Peninsula  will move across
Southwest Alaska Sunday and then through Southcentral on Monday.
Uncertainty increases beyond Monday as Bering Sea low should
weaken and track eastward across the state and then result in
generally zonal flow after that. The main uncertainty arises in
how much the trough will weaken and how fast it will track across
the mainland part of the state.

How this translates into the sensible weather: The shortwave will
bring enhanced rainfall to Southwest Alaska on Sunday and then to
Southcentral Alaska Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft will keep
some showers around even after the shortwave passes through the
region. When the main upper level low moves across the area,
there will be some locally heavy rainfall, especially along the
north Gulf coast. Right now is looks like a generally wet first
half of the week next week, but should the low move through a
little faster, Wednesday (especially in Southwest ALaska) could
see some briefly drier weather.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$