Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 101449
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
549 AM AKST Sat Jan 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A strong surface low is currently south-southeast of Seward and
will track inland quickly this morning and dissipate. Aloft, a
deep upper low and cold airmass sits to the west. These two
features have created a difficult and dynamic system the past few
days. For one part, the surface low is bringing very strong winds
into the eastern Kenai this morning, which would typically
downslope Anchorage and the Mat Valley. However, the deep cold
airmass near the surface, the upper level shortwave, and the upper
level low to the west, have so far acted to counterbalance the
downsloping. This has allowed persistent snow so far this morning
for Anchorage and the Mat Valley. For Seward, the low track
slightly to the east may allow the southerly wind shift this
morning to remain cold enough for snow at sea level. This is a low
confidence forecast, but could result in 6-12 inches of
additional accumulation. For the Eastern Turnagain Arm, the strong
easterlies have warmed temperatures from 5 degrees and heavy snow
to 35 degrees and rain. Rain falling onto the snow covered and
very cold surface temperatures may rapidly freeze and cause
hazardous travel conditions. Exercise caution if traveling on the
Seward Highway today. For Valdez, warm air is slowly trying to eat
away at the arctic airmass, but only time will tell which one
will win out.

For the remainder of the day, expect snowfall rates for Anchorage
and the lower Mat to decrease slightly. By this evening, the
upper level low to the west will begin to nudge east, which will
focus a band of snow from Anchorage to the Mat-Su. Slight east to
west variations in this band will dictate who could receive up to
a foot, but a widespread 4-8 inches is expected. For the eastern
Kenai, a band will rotate east towards Kenai and Soldotna today,
resulting in 1-3 inches of accumulation. Lastly, the Susitna will
receive steady southwest flow and a widespread area of at least
one foot of accumulation. Higher amounts are likely north of
Talkeetna.

Moving into Sunday the influence of the Gulf features will wane
as the upper low stretches out and retreats to the north. Light
upslope flow will linger light snow into Anchorage, the Mat Valley
and Valdez. For Monday, clearing skies will lead to falling
temperatures once again.

CJ

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Widespread small craft winds will continue across the Bering Sea
through the next few days. A small corridor of gales southwest of
the Pribilof Islands will continue over the Central Aleutians
through the end of the weekend, weakening to small craft through
Sunday night. Blowing snow is possible, but not to blizzard
levels. Gusty small craft winds are also expected to continue
through the regular gaps and passes south of the Alaska Peninsula
and Eastern Aleutians through the rest of this weekend. On Monday,
the upper level features drop further into the North Pacific and
higher pressure moves into the Bering from the northwest. This
will allow wind speeds to drop and snow showers to diminish due to
warm air advection.

Cold temperatures and wind chills are expected to continue across
Southwest Alaska. Some cloud cover may allow for some slightly
warmer temperatures for inland areas today and tomorrow. Areas of
blowing snow may continue across the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and
Western Capes through this morning as gusty winds gradually
diminish.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Tuesday afternoon a strong low lifts into the Gulf of Alaska.
There is a reasonable degree of uncertainty as to the exact
strength and track, but what looks likely is that this low will
move into Prince William Sound. This will keep Southcentral in the
snow with only Cordova in a position to see a potential switch
from snow to rain. This system will have the potential to produce
strong winds and heavy snowfall for coastal regions Tuesday and
Wednesday. A second system will quickly follow on Tuesday through
the western Gulf, with prolonged precipitation for Kodiak and the
northern Gulf coast lasting to Friday and beyond.

Over the Bering Sea, a weakening low descends south through the
Central Bering and phases with a North Pacific low moving north
into the southern Bering Friday morning. Large model variation
places this low somewhere between Adak/Atka to the AKPen/Bristol
Bay. Widespread gales with light to moderate precipitation will
likely remain as snow to the west of this system, with chances for
rain to briefly mix with snow to the east of this system.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Bands of light snow will continue across the terminal
through today with mostly low-end VFR, at or below 5000 feet, to
occasional MVFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities. IFR visibilities
may accompany heavier bursts of snow this morning. A heavier band
of snowfall is likely to move over the terminal this evening. MVFR
ceilings are likely as well as lower-end IFR visibilities. In
heavier bursts of snow, visibilities may reach LIFR briefly. This
heavier band of snow moves out through mid- Sunday morning at the
end of the TAF period. However, low- level moisture associated
with the freshly fallen snow could promote low-stratus and misty
conditions despite snow ending.

Low-level wind shear is possible this morning as the front moves
overhead with variable surface winds while winds 1500 to 2000 feet
up are out of the southeast. Winds then turn southerly to
southwesterly this afternoon.

&&


$$