Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

143
FXAK68 PAFC 191241
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
441 AM AKDT Sun Oct 19 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday evening)...

A ridge of high pressure over Southcentral continues to provide
for tranquil weather conditions across the region. Cloud cover
remains across much of the southern and western Copper River Basin
due to weak northeasterly flow underneath the ridge. Elsewhere,
pockets of low stratus and fog persist across the Matanuska Valley
this morning, but are still expected to scour out through the
morning hours as an increasing northeasterly wind develops. Gap
winds along the immediate coast have also continued overnight, but
are beginning to wind down this morning as the pressure gradient
weakens and the flow aloft first weakens then becoming more
southeasterly through the day.

The forecast is on track with the well-advertised strong North
Pacific low moving from south of the Aleutians east into the
southern Gulf of Alaska by early Monday morning. Its occluded front
will move from the western Gulf Sunday morning to the northern
Gulf Coast by late Sunday night into Monday.

The front will first impact Kodiak Island with moderate to heavy
rain beginning Sunday afternoon. Moderate rain advances northward
to the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound by
Sunday evening and continues through early Monday morning.
Easterly gale-force winds will also accompany the front with the
strongest winds stretching from the eastern shores of Kodiak
Island to the entrance of Prince William Sound.

Rainfall totals in the neighborhood of an inch will be common for
Kodiak City as well as Whittier and Portage Sunday afternoon
through Monday morning. Rain looks to taper off around Kodiak
Island beginning Monday morning and along the northern Gulf Coast,
Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound Monday
afternoon.

A secondary disturbance interacting with the main upper-level low
in the Gulf may pull back additional moisture over the Eastern
Kenai Peninsula Monday afternoon and evening resulting in some
light rain. Yet another wave enters the Gulf early Tuesday morning
as it lifts through the North Pacific associated with a low south
of the Alaska Peninsula. There is uncertainty with where a
surface low will eventually spin up Tuesday morning. Early
indications are that a low will spin up somewhere in the
northwestern Gulf. Depending on the evolution of this low and its
eventual track, there could be some moisture pulled northwestward
across the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su Valleys for
some precipitation in the form of a rain/snow mix. The majority of
precipitation with this system looks to remain confined to Prince
William Sound and the northern Gulf Coast through Tuesday
evening. The aforementioned low south of the Alaska Peninsula
Tuesday morning will move east-northeastward to just south of the
Gulf for Tuesday evening. Its front moves through the southern
Gulf Tuesday afternoon to the southeastern Gulf Tuesday evening
with the majority of precipitation remaining confined to Southeast
Alaska.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A large and deep North Pacific low centered around 250 miles
southeast of Unalaska is quickly moving northeastward, with its
center on track to pass well south of the Aleutian Chain. That
said, due to its size and subtle northward shift over the last
12-24h, its cloud shield extends from the Central/Eastern
Aleutians northward to Saint Paul this morning. Along with gusty
winds, moderate to at times heavy rainfall rates will continue
through this afternoon with the progression of the low. Rain is
wrapping up for areas like Atka, continuing for Nikolski and
Unalaska, and increasing in coverage across Sand Point and Cold
Bay. Confidence is high in the guidance that the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula will see around 1 inch of rainfall through
Monday morning, with higher amounts possible in areas of favorable
orographic lift.

For Southwest Alaska, it is a much different story. Cold and dry
high pressure is in control at the surface, but satellite imagery
shows the edge of higher clouds streaming northward from the North
Pacific low and riding over the ridge. Most locations across
Southwest Alaska are currently sitting in the mid to upper 20s,
with lower 30s along the immediate coastline. With increasing high
clouds and temperatures already over-performing/cooler than much
of the MOS guidance, the expectation is for temperatures to only
slowly drop or remain steady-state over the next few hours. The
cloud deck will also help to insulate the atmosphere from solar
radiation this afternoon, keeping high temperatures in the 30s for
most. A cold air advection regime will persist across Southwest
Alaska through the short term.

As the low pulls away and ventures into the Gulf this afternoon,
expect northwesterly gap winds to increase for the Eastern
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through favored bays and passes.
Easterly Kamishak gap winds should also pick up in intensity as
the afternoon wears on. Meanwhile, a secondary low and its gale
force front also pivots across the Western Aleutians Monday
morning. Although indications are that the low will be weaker,
because of the northwest to southeast orientation of its front,
the Western and Central Aleutians are likely to see widespread
gales to just under storm-force gusts. As the system`s upper level
environment becomes less supportive and begins to flatten Monday
afternoon, the low and front will start to decay as it tries to
move eastward from the Central Aleutians.

Yet another low with another round of rain and wind is poised to
move across the Western Aleutians Tuesday morning. The current
consensus is that this will be the weakest of the three lows for
the short term, with only small craft to low end gales expected as
it skirts eastward across the Central Aleutians through
Wednesday.

For Southwest Alaska, a rather robust shortwave/upper low drops
southward Monday morning from the Bering Strait and over the
Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Tuesday morning. Models like the GFS and NAM
show snow shower activity breaking out Tuesday evening for areas
like Bethel and Aniak. Models begin to diverge thereafter on
timing and placement of the upper low and as it drifts southward.


-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Upper level troughing spanning across the Bering, Mainland
Alaska, and the Gulf will persist through the long term as upper
lows centered over eastern Russia and southern Alaska anchor it in
place through the period. Guidance points to the jet stream
remaining zonal in the North Pacific through midweek into the
weekend as multiple shortwaves round the base of the trough. This
favors a storm track along the Aleutian Islands and AKPen and
continuing into the Gulf. Relatively good model agreement for a
series of lows in the Gulf for midweek into the weekend indicates
most energy and associated rainfall will be directed towards
southeast Alaska, though rainfall and snow for higher elevations
can be expected along the coast for the eastern Kenai Peninsula
and Prince William Sound as these systems curve north into the
coast. Gusty northwesterly winds may pick up across the AKPen on
the back side of these lows as they track into the Gulf, with a
colder airmass spreading across the Bering and much of the
Mainland trending temperatures cooler. Further west, multiple
areas of low pressure will keep the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain
under a generally showery regime, although exact placement of
these lows remains uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will persist.

&&


$$