Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

890
FXAK68 PAFC 110030
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
430 PM AKDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

Key Messages:

-Cold Weather Advisory in effect tonight through 11AM AKDT
 Wednesday for dangerous wind chills across Anchorage.

-Cold Weather Advisories in effect through 1PM AKDT Thursday for
 dangerous wind chills along the Matanuska Valley, Southern Kenai
 Peninsula and Prince William Sound, Thompson Pass, Northern
 Susitna Valley, Northern Copper Valley, and the Tok Cutoff.

Discussion:

The upper level pattern shows a nearly stacked low spinning over the
northern Gulf with a longwave trough extending from the northern
Yukon Territory southwestwards to Kodiak Island. This trough will
start to pinch off as shortwave ridging moves into northern
Alaska. This new closed low will merge with the other Gulf low
into a complex low that will gradually weaken through the
remainder of the work week. At the surface, a low has organized
over the Gulf east of the Kenai Peninsula. The continuation of
low pressure over the Gulf and ridging building over interior
Alaska will keep the enhanced coastal gradient in place over the
next several days. This will allow for continued gusty off-shore
gap flow winds in the usual areas (Copper River Delta, Valdez,
Thompson Pass, Seward, Whittier, the Mat Valley, etc). Heavy
freezing spray can be expected through Wednesday for near shore
waters in areas of these strong gap flow winds, including near the
Copper River Delta, southern Cook Inlet and Kamishak Bay, and
Shelikof Strait. Additionally, the gradient over the Alaska Range
will remain tight through tomorrow (Wednesday) which will keep
increased northerly winds through the Alaska Range passes and
along the Copper River Valley.

Cold temperatures remain over Southcentral as the synoptic pattern
continues to allow for reinforcing shots of Arctic air. The
combination of cold temperatures and gusty winds will result in
dangerous wind chills to develop for areas along the southern
and eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, Thompson Pass,
Northern Susitna and Copper Valley, and along the Tok Cutoff with
Cold Weather Advisories in effect through Thursday. The Matanuska
Valley was added to this list today as winds become elevated
tonight through Thursday and temperatures continue to drop.
Anchorage will also experience these dangerously cold wind chills
tonight through tomorrow morning with a Cold Weather Advisory in
place for this shortened timeframe.

AB/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Thursday)...

The pattern of persistence continues over Southwest Alaska and the
Bering Sea, as cold northerly flow continues over the region. This
makes for optimal conditions for large areas of extreme vessel
icing across Southwest AK coastal waters near the expansive ice
edge. Weather conditions across the region will remain persist
into early Friday, with any fluctuations in the forecast due to
shortwaves tracking southwards across western AK and the eastern
Bering Sea. Generally, snow showers and blowing snow will continue
over the Alaska Peninsula and eastern Aleutians including
Unalaska.

Gusty northerly winds continue across the eastern Bering and down
across the eastern Aleutians (Nikolski, Dutch Harbor, Akutan) and
southern Alaska Peninsula (False Pass, King Cove, Sand Point). As
such, Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect along the southern
Alaska Peninsula for wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below zero.
Additionally, Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for
areas of blowing snow across Southwest Alaska. The Kuskokwim
Coast, particularly near Etolin Strait and Toksook Bay have seen
ground blizzard conditions today and will likely continue through
the evening hours. Areas of the Alaska Peninsula have also
observed blizzard conditions with visibilities reduced to one-
quarter mile or less at times in places like Cold Bay, King Cove,
and Sand Point. Cold air continuing to enter the area will further
strengthen gap winds along the AKPen and expand the marine areas
covered by heavy freezing spray and extreme freezing spray
(potential for 4cm/hour or greater icing rates).

Another short-wave will ride over top of the ridge and across the
northern Bering Sea Wednesday before diving southward Wednesday
night through Thursday. This will bring snow to portions of the
Kuskokwim Delta and down across the eastern Bering Sea to the
Alaska Peninsula. The airmass behind this doesn`t look nearly as
cold as what is in place right now and over the next couple days.
Thus, winds will be weaker, temperatures/wind chills more
moderate, and there will be less heavy freezing spray for marine
areas.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The long-term outlook remains mostly unchanged. suggesting a
complex atmospheric setup. An upper-level trough centered over the
northern Gulf of Alaska will stretch southward into the North
Pacific, serving as a hub for several rotating shortwaves. While
high pressure is expected to dominate the Bering Sea through the
first part of the new week, the weather will shift by Tuesday
morning as an upper- level low arrives, bringing snow showers to
the western mainland.

Regarding local impacts, a tightening pressure gradient along the
coast will trigger intense winds through the gaps of the North
Gulf Coast. Additionally, strong northerly flow and cold air
advection will lead to gusty gap winds and frigid conditions
across the Alaskan Peninsula. Model guidance is generally in good
agreement in this pattern that will keep temperatures well below
seasonal norms for both South and Southcentral Alaska through the
end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist through
tomorrow. Winds will be strongest today into this evening, but
are expected to diminish toward morning and be lighter tomorrow.

&&


$$