Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

049
FXAK68 PAFC 032337
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKDT Fri Jul 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

The weather pattern from yesterday, as far as the Southcentral
Mainland is concerned, continues for the rest of today. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms continue across the Central and Western
Copper River Basin as well as the Northern Susitna Valley the rest
of this afternoon and into the evening. Storms will taper off to
showers overnight tonight as the atmosphere stabilizes.

The weather pattern across the Southcentral mainland, Kodiak
Island, and the Gulf remains generally active tonight into the
July 4th weekend. An upper-level low currently over Southwest
Alaska will continue to dig southeast over the Southwest Mainland
and Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) Saturday and eventually make it to
Southwestern Gulf of Alaska by Sunday morning. This upper-low will
send a few features northward across Southcentral. The first
feature associated with this upper low is a frontal system that is
currently draped across Southwest Alaska and stretches across the
AKPEN to Kodiak Island. This front will lift northward bringing
northern portions of Kodiak Island a round of light showers this
evening. Rain then moves to Kachemak Bay and the Southern Kenai
Peninsula by late tonight or early Saturday morning before
advancing up the rest of the Kenai Peninsula to Anchorage and the
Mat-Su Valleys through the rest of Saturday morning. This batch of
rain will taper off across Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys by
Saturday afternoon

The next feature associated with upper low across Southwest
Alaska will be a strong shortwave rounding the base of the low
that will cause cyclogenesis southwest of Kodiak Island Saturday
morning. This surface will slowly track northeast to Shelikof
Strait by Saturday afternoon as Kodiak Island sees steady rain for
most of the day. As the front moves north, so does the rain.
After a brief break between systems, steady rain reaches the
Southern Kenai Peninsula/Homer/Kachemak Bay by Saturday afternoon
and advances along the rest of the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and
Prince William Sound by Saturday evening. Anchorage and the lee of
the Kenai Mountains will remain mostly dry with weaker lift and
southeast flow aloft with this system. However, hi-res guidance is
indicating that rain will reform along the Cook Inlet Coast of
the Western Kenai Peninsula Saturday afternoon into the evening.
Convection-wise, lightning strikes are not as likely for Saturday
as they are for the rest of today. If any lightning strikes do
occur Saturday, along the Talkeetna Mountains looks to be the best
spot and most unstable.

Rain continues for Sunday across Kodiak Island and the Eastern
Kenai Peninsula as interior areas remain free from steady rain.
However, instability will build back across the Copper River Basin
and Northern Susitna Valley with a better chance for diurnally-
driven showers to produce a few lightning strikes. Chances are
higher (30 to 50 percent) for isolated thunderstorms Monday
afternoon across portions of the Southcentral Interior with
temperatures warming and instability able to build more
efficiently during the day. Steady rain across Kodiak Island, the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William Sound finally comes
to an end late Sunday night into Monday as the surface low
responsible for the wet and soggy July 4th finally pulls away to
the Southcentral to Southeast Gulf of Alaska.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Monday)...

The dominant weather feature for the day is a large elongated
upper level low off the Kuskokwim Delta coast. A leading short-
wave trough and surface front has been slowly tracking inland
across Southwest AK today, leading to steady light rain and cool
temperatures. The forward motion of the upper level low, short-
wave and surface front are all slowing, so the area of steady rain
will also begin to stall over inland areas of Bristol Bay, the
Kuskokwim Valley, and the Kuskokwim Delta. Temperatures aloft with
the low center are quite chilly; as low as -6 degrees C at 850mb
and -25 degrees C at 500 mb. As a result, any precipitation behind
the leading front is showery and ceilings are notably higher in
the more unstable airmass. Meanwhile, a strong short-wave on the
back side of the low is digging southward across the north-central
Bering, helping to focus showers over the Saint Matthew Island
waters. High pressure continue to prevail across the southern to
western bering Sea and Aleutians, leading to benign weather. A
series of storm systems and a tropical airmass is positioned just
to the south in the North Pacific, slowly lifting northward toward
the Aleutians.

The upper level low will track to Bristol Bay Saturday afternoon,
with the front and short-wave gradually weakening over interior
Southwest AK and precipitation becoming more showery. The
aforementioned short-wave on the back side of the low will dig
southeastward around the south side of the low, leading to
development of steady light rain along the southern Alaska
Peninsula tonight, spreading north up the Alaska Peninsula to
Naknek, Iliamna and interior Bristol Bay during the day Saturday.
The entire storm system will exit eastward to the Gulf Saturday
night through Sunday. High pressure and northerly low level flow
will lead to warming and drying conditions under partly to mostly
sunny skies. This will establish a thermal trough inland which
will serve as the focus for isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday.

Out west, the ridge in place will gradually be squeezed out by the
upper short-wave dropping southward across the central bering and
the storm systems lifting northward out of the Pacific. Rain and
elevated winds will overspread the Aleutians (from the Rat Islands
eastward to Atka) late tonight through Saturday before quickly
dissipating. An upper level low over the northwest Pacific combined
with short-waves riding the subtropical jet from the Pacific up
to the Aleutians will reinvigorate the leading front and help
bring additional rainfall to portions of the Aleutians Sunday
through Monday. The aforementioned "tropical airmass" will lead
to an increase in low clouds and fog along the Aleutians and into
the southern Bering Sea.

-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Sunnier and warmer weather on Tuesday for southcentral Alaska.
Tuesday evening will begin to see mostly cloudy with chances of
showers from an upper level low entering the Gulf, then exiting by
Wednesday. A second upper level low shortly follows continuing
the conditions, which is mentioned later.

A Bering low north of the Aleutians and Saint Paul Island will
progress toward the Bering Strait. The low reaches the eastern
Bering by Wednesday and weakens over the Bering Strait before
Thursday, bringing showers and wind to the Aleutian chain and
Southwest Alaska.

An upper level low develops from the weakened Bering low near
Kodiak Island Wednesday afternoon. This progresses eastward and
brings mostly cloudy skies with showers for the rest of the week
for southcentral.

-SS

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon. Westerly
winds pick up slightly this afternoon, with gusts 15 to 20 mph.
Winds become southerly and diminish to 10 mph or less after 07Z
tonight as a trough works north up Cook Inlet. Areas of rain
showers move in with the trough, becoming steadier rainfall
overnight into tomorrow morning. Ceilings drop below 5000 ft with
the trough, and may drop to MVFR late tonight/early tomorrow
morning as rain intensifies.

&&


$$