Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

115
FXAK68 PAFC 191222
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
322 AM AKST Mon Jan 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper-level ridge continues to build across interior Alaska
this morning, with the ridge axis centered over the Kuskokwim
Valley. An elongated trough is bifurcating this ridge, with the
southern portion of the ridge extending from the Gulf of Alaska
southeast along the Alaska Panhandle. This trough, the remnant
wave that moved north across Cook Inlet then east along the Alaska
Range yesterday, is producing a band of mid and high level clouds
from parts of the Copper River Basin to Kodiak Island.

The aforementioned ridge is advecting warmer air aloft over the
the Southern Mainland, resulting in temperatures above freezing
above 3,000ft. This has resulted in a strong inversion near the
surface, with generally clear skies and light winds allowing
temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s for valley locations.
In addition to the cooler temperatures, there is still some
lingering low-level moisture across valley locations. As such,
patchy fog has developed overnight from the western Kenai
Peninsula north to the southern Susitna Valley. The challenge will
be the extent of this fog through the rest of this morning.

Late Monday night and into Tuesday morning, the ridge axis moves
east of Cook Inlet as a shortwave and weak surface low lift north
toward Kodiak Island. A southwesterly flow in the wake of the
ridge may draw clouds and moisture into Cook Inlet for Tuesday
morning, resulting in low ceilings as far north as Anchorage and
the potential for a light wintry mix of precipitation along the
immediate coast from Homer to Clam Gulch.

By mid week, the bulk of the south central mainland will see
conditions remaining dry and cooling day by day. Meanwhile, A
fresh north Pacific shortwave will ride the high pressure ridge,
impacting Kodiak with rain showers persisting on and off through
Wednesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

KEY MESSAGES:

 1) Southerly flow continues through Tuesday across most of
mainland Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians with light
precipitation likely along the southwest coast Monday night into
Tuesday.

 2) Two fast-moving North Pacific lows the next 48 hours bring
snow, rain and gale-force winds to the Western / Central
Aleutians.

 3) Upper flow weakens across Southwest Alaska Tuesday night into
Thursday as ridging builds in with quiet and overcast weather
expected.

Discussion:

Dry conditions are expected across most of the southwestern
mainland during the first half of the day. A weak disturbance
lifts across the southern Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) starting this
afternoon. The southern AKPEN locations, such as Chignik and Sand
Point will continue to see showery and overcast conditions
through the day today. Moisture then lifts to Nunivak Island,
Nelson Island, and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast by this evening and
overnight. The atmospheric profile suggests that if precipitation
were to fall, it would be in the form of a very light wintry mix
as temperatures aloft are marginally cool and warming with time.
The best chance to see some light freezing rain/snow mix is across
Nunivak/Nelson Islands overnight tonight into Tuesday morning.
Upslope flow along the Kilbuck and Ahklun mountains could also
help to ring out moisture in the form of a light wintry mix along
the eastern facing slopes of the mountains. The population centers
such as Dillingham, Togiak, Manokotak, and Aleknagik look to
remain just above freezing with rain and or rain with a few
flurries mixing in at times.

Showery activity will persist mostly along the mountain ranges
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Flow then weakens through
the day and into Thursday as ridging builds in from the eastern
Bering with quiet but overcast weather anticipated for Southwest
Alaska. Fog and misty conditions are also a possibility with this
incoming pattern.

Farther out west, a North Pacific low continues to lift northward
from just south of the Western Aleutians/Shemya into the Bering
Sea today. Last evening, this low brought gusty northerly winds
and snow to Shemya. Visibility even dropped as low as one-half
mile for a time last evening. This low will continue into the
Western Bering through tonight as it continues to weaken and
conditions will improve throughout the day for Shemya and the
Western Aleutians. The front of the next North Pacific low lifts
to Adak and Atka by tonight with gusty east to southeast winds and
rain. Storm-force southeasterly winds work from the marine zones
on the North Pacific side of the Central Aleutian Chain to the
Bering side tonight through Tuesday morning before winds weaken
back to gale-force as the low weakens.

As this low works northwest into the central and western Bering,
cold air wraps back in along the Western and Central Aleutian
Chain from the southwest. However, this cold air will not stay
established long as another front from a North Pacific low west of
the Western Aleutians pushes its front into the Western and
Central Aleutians by Tuesday night and Wednesday. A corridor of
storm-force winds will work northward from the Pacific-side marine
zones along the Western Aleutian Chain late Tuesday night to
early Wednesday morning to the Bering-side marine zones through
mid-morning Wednesday before weakening back to gale-force. This
low looks to work northward to the Kamchatka Peninsula Coast by
Thursday morning as another front, rain, and warm air push
encroaches on Adak/Atka and the Central Aleutians by then.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

Confidence is higher than usual for high pressure to build across
the state for the majority of the long range. The resulting omega
block pattern is expected to bring seasonable and quiet weather
to much of the Mainland. There continues to be a strong signal for
persistent upper level troughing over Kamchatka and the far
Western Bering Sea through the period. Several shortwaves and
accompanying surface lows will lift from the North Pacific and
into the western Bering through mid to late this week, keeping
unsettled and active weather mainly confined to the Western and
Central Aleutians. Each wave will move in succession through the
Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing multiple rounds of potentially
gale to storm force winds and precipitation through this week.
However, the main foreseeable challenge would be with the timing
of each low that lifts north across the area.

The upper level ridge looks to retreat to the northwest towards
eastern Siberia and the northern Bering by the end of the weekend,
allowing for an Arctic trough to dig south across the interior
while North Pacific disturbances lift into the Gulf. Models remain
in fairly good agreement on the shift to a more active pattern
for the weekend into early next week, bringing increased
precipitation chances along the Alaska Peninsula and Southcentral
and cooler temperatures across the southern Mainland.

JH

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds around 10 kts or less will persist.
Conditions will be favorable for low stratus or fog development as
high pressure builds over the region.

&&

$$