Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

694
FXAK68 PAFC 130045
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Monday night through Thursday)...

An active weather pattern will persist across Southcentral Alaska
through the middle of the week as a series of upper-level
disturbances move across the region. An upper-level trough
extending across southern Alaska will support periods of
precipitation, with the greatest coverage expected along the
coastal areas and the higher terrain.

For today, unsettled conditions will continue across portions of
Southcentral Alaska as moisture moves inland. Coastal locations,
including Prince William Sound and the eastern Kenai Peninsula,
will see the greatest potential for precipitation, while areas
farther inland, including Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys, may
experience more intermittent precipitation. Snow level will remain
an important forecast consideration, particularly across higher
elevations, where around 5 inches of snow may be possible at
Thompson Pass tonight through Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, the upper-level pattern begins to transition as the
earlier disturbance shifts eastward and attention turns toward
another developing system over the North Pacific. While some
locations may experience a relative decrease in precipitation,
lingering moisture and additional embedded disturbances could
maintain unsettled conditions, particularly along the coast.

By Thursday, model guidance indicates a more amplified upper-level
pattern as a stronger trough and associated low-pressure system
approach the northern Gulf. This system will bring another round
of widespread precipitation and gusty winds to portions of
Southcentral Alaska, particularly along the northern Gulf Coast,
Prince William Sound, the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak
Island.

The GFS, Canadian, NAM and ECMWF guidance generally supports a
more organized system developing, although differences remain in
the placement and strength of the upper-level trough and
associated surface low. A track closer to the norther Gulf Coast
would increase the potential for stronger winds and heavier
precipitation, while a track farther south or east could limit
impacts farther inland.

Confidence is moderate in the overall evolution of the system, but
lower regarding the magnitude and location of potential impacts.
Uncertainty remains in model guidance regarding the exact track
and strength of the low through Thursday.


-LM


&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The large, occluded low continues to weaken and remain nearly
stationary near Saint Lawrence Island through Tuesday, as
continued clouds and convective showers progress from west to east
across the Bering/Aleutians and into Southwest Alaska. Weak
shortwaves embedded within the mean flow will continue to drive
scattered convective showers across Southwest Alaska through
Tuesday as the broad upper level trough over the Bering begins to
slowly progress east and the surface low dissipates. In the
western Bering, a stronger shortwave becoming more defined in
satellite imagery this afternoon digs south across the western
Aleutian Chain through tonight, bringing an uptick in showers and
northwesterly small craft winds from Shemya to Atka through
Tuesday.

By Tuesday morning, the shortwave digs south of the Aleutian
Chain and interacts and phases with a separate, compact North
Pacific shortwave while ridging begins to build across the western
Bering. This results in the upper level pattern becoming much
more amplified throughout the day Tuesday, with a surface low in
the North Pacific quickly deepening Tuesday into Wednesday as it
moves northwards towards the Alaska Peninsula. Reinforced
northwesterly flow between the two synoptic features will bring
small craft winds and gale force gusts from the southern Bering
across the Central Aleutians through Wednesday, while stronger
gale-force winds around the low reach the coastal waters south of
the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday morning. Models continue to come
into better agreement on the evolution of the low as it moves
north, spreading east to northeast small craft to gale-force winds
throughout the southeastern Bering and the Bristol Bay waters
Wednesday into Thursday morning. As the low begins to slowly pivot
east towards the Gulf Thursday, north-northwesterly winds across
the southern AKPen and eastern Aleutian Islands further
strengthen, bringing the potential for storm-force gusts from
roughly Unalaska to Cold Bay and widespread gales through favored
bays and passes along the southern AKPen. Across the Southwest
Mainland, expect gusty easterly Kamishak Gap winds as well as
gusty offshore winds for the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Bristol Bay
coast.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast starts off on Friday with a low tracking
into the Gulf of Alaska and weakening. Scattered rainfall impacts
Kodiak Island and the Southcentral Coast. Higher elevations will
likely see snowfall with snow levels at 1500 to 2000 ft. For
Southwest Alaska, gap winds over the Unalaska area and Alaska
Peninsula quickly diminish as the low moves east. Ridging
develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and potentially
low stratus or fog. Uncertainty with the low`s location is
present on Saturday, with more or less rain and snow possible for
the coast depending on the low`s exact position. On Saturday
night/Sunday morning, a frontal system moves into the Bering,
leading to rain and elevated winds over parts of the Aleutians,
but exactly which part is uncertain for now. Southcentral dries
out on Sunday as the low is absorbed by a new low moving into
Southeast Alaska. A strong North Pacific low is poised to move
south of the Aleutians by Monday, which would bring gusty winds
and rainfall to the Unalaska and Nikolski area. Southcentral
remains drier on Monday.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Rain showers should be tapering off overall through
tomorrow. Ceilings should range from 3000 to 5000 ft in general
through tomorrow though there is potential for ceilings to drop
below 3000 ft late tonight and remain MVFR for much of the day
Tuesday. Visibilities will be VFR unless a particularly heavy
shower passes through and briefly dips vis to MVFR conditions.
Winds are expected to remain south to southeast under 10 kts,
though there may be some occasional higher gusts through this
evening.

&&

$$