Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXAK68 PAFC 101316
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT Mon Aug 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

- A Heat Advisory continues for the Lower Matanuska Valley
  including Wasilla, Palmer, and Big Lake.

- Warm temperatures expected through this evening. Cooler
  conditions are expected Tuesday, followed by a modest warming
  trend on Wednesday.

Discussion:

Upper level high pressure is retrograding westward toward
interior Southwest AK this morning. On satellite, high clouds are
rotating counter-clockwise (anti-cyclonically) across most of
Southcentral. Fog and low stratus has been observed at the surface
under these clouds this morning. Southcentral can expect a very
similar day to Saturday and Sunday, with any morning fog or low
clouds burning off, leading to partly to mostly sunny skies and
warm temperatures. Highs are expected to persist with 60s along
the coast and 70s inland. Afternoon/evening showers will be
limited to higher elevations, as a series of weak short-waves
track from the Interior southward across Southcentral. Although
the potential for thunderstorms is low, there is a probability for
a few lightning strikes toward the Copper River
Basin/Southcentral Interior. Stable conditions along the coast and
valleys will maintain dry weather and sunshine.

On Tuesday, the upper level ridge will begin to lift back toward
Southcentral, causing low-level flow to shift from northerly to
southerly. This will allow a more significant push of the marine
layer inland, especially up Cook Inlet and the western Kenai
Peninsula to Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Thus, increasing clouds and
marine influence could result in cooler temperatures Tuesday,
particularly near Cook Inlet.

By Wednesday, weak shortwave energy will move through the upper
level flow as the ridge continues to weaken. Persistent southerly
low- level flow will continue to favor marine clouds across Cook
Inlet and portions of the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and
Mat- Su, keeping temperatures a bit cooler than earlier in the
week. As a North Pacific low approaches the Alaska Peninsula and
Kodiak Island midweek, the probability of precipitation and
breeziness will increase for Kodiak Island. With the high pressure
ridge remaining the dominant synoptic feature, it will resist the
progression of this rain and Southcentral will likely remain dry
through at least midweek. However, there are slight model
differences with regards to precipitation reaching the Kenai
Peninsula for the later half of this week.

-Rux/LM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

Satellite imagery this morning reveals a similar story to the
past few days as low stratus and fog blankets the Bering Sea while
areas of fog have developed across portions of Southwest Alaska
under the ridge. As the upper level low continues south into the
North Pacific through this morning, the strong ridge over the
southern mainland will gradually nudge westward over Southwest
Alaska today while fog dissipates by this afternoon. Underneath
the ridge, mostly clear conditions and warming temperatures are to
be expected across Southwest for the next couple of days.

High temperatures across Southwest will range from the low to
high 70s with cooler temperatures, in the 60s, along the coast
this afternoon through Wednesday. Tuesday afternoon will be the
warmest day with temperatures nearing 80 degrees in the Kuskokwim
Valley. Along with the warm temperatures, some instability will
also build in conjunction with day-time heating today along the
Western Alaska Range leading to a slight (10 to 20%) chance for
showers this afternoon into this evening. For Tuesday, a weak
vorticity maximum forecast to move across Southwest during maximum
heating will provide a better chance (50 to 70%) for showers and
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The
greatest lightning potential will be mostly confined to the
terrain along the Western Alaska Range and the
Kuskokwim/Kilbuck/Ahklun Mountains. More showers are likely (60 to
70% chance) along the terrain for Wednesday.

An upper level shortwave and strengthening surface low will move
into the western Bering by early Tuesday morning, bringing a round
of light to moderate rainfall to the Aleutians from Shemya to
Atka through Wednesday morning. Elsewhere across the Bering,
including the Pribilof Islands and the rest of the Aleutian Chain,
low stratus and areas of fog will persist through much of the
forecast period. The Bering Sea low will stall as it reaches the
central Bering due to the strong ridge over the eastern Bering and
Southwest Alaska. A stronger shortwave and surface low in the
North Pacific will lift towards the southern AKPEN by Wednesday
evening. A push of warm southerly to southeasterly flow will
accompany the front as moderate to heavy rain moves into the AKPEN
beginning Wednesday afternoon. Some light rain may make it as far
north as the Bristol Bay Coast by Wednesday evening, with
rainfall steadily progressing north along the Southwest coast
through Wednesday night.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A Gulf low is set to bring rain and wind for the Alaska
Peninsula and Kodiak Island on Thursday. There is higher
confidence (50%) of reaching significant rainfall thresholds in
the Alaska Peninsula. Showers for Southwest Alaska and the
Aleutians out to Unalaska. There is a minimal chance of
precipitation for Southcentral from a blocking high over eastern
Alaska. The blocking high is also responsible for warmer than
average temperatures for Southcentral Thursday through Sunday.

The pressure difference from the system and ridge has the
potential to generate winds sustained at 40 mph in the Shelikof
Strait. The southern tip of Kenai Peninsula also has the chance
(lower confidence) to see hazardous winds.

The Gulf low weakens and continues to generate showers for
Southwest, Alaska Peninsula, and part of the Aleutians (previously
stated) Friday through Saturday. On Sunday, a low originating
from the North Pacific will enter the Gulf and interact with the
weakening Gulf low. There is minimal model agreement on further
evolution of the low . It is important to note that the system
would generate flow from the tropics, which would enhance moisture
and bring high precipitation values.

-SS

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...The potential for patchy fog and low stratus will
continue, mainly during the morning hours today. Should fog move
into the terminal, expect conditions to vary between IFR and VFR
as fog periodically drifts in and out of the terminal. There
should still be a definitive trend back towards VFR conditions by
the afternoon hours as fog dissipates with daytime heating, though
fog/stratus could return once again late tonight. Winds will
remain light and variable throughout the TAF period.

&&


$$