Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

716
FXAK68 PAFC 061319
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 AM AKST Fri Nov 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The primary weather feature of note this morning is the modest low
that is rotating over the eastern Gulf. This low will continue to
drift northwards this morning before beginning to retrograde back
west over the northern Gulf later tonight. Abundant cloud cover
across the Gulf with the northern extent rotating westward into the
Copper Basin overnight...which has helped to keep temperatures from
plummeting in the lower river valleys. Further west across inland
Southcentral, a ridge of high pressure has allowed for mostly clear
skies for the western Kenai up through the Mat-Su Valleys. Given
good radiational cooling and lack of wind, a few pockets of fog may
develop by mid-morning for some of the these areas. An fog that does
develop will scour out by late morning. Low stratus over the Copper
Basin and increasing mid-level cloudcover may spark some light
seeder-feeder snow this morning, though a greater chance for light
snow will arrive by tomorrow morning for the southern Basin.

The aforementioned low will bring coastal showers and gale to storm
force winds along the near-shore waters of the northern Gulf. The
center of the low is progged to become more compact as it nears
Prince William Sound, though the GFS appears to be the most
aggressive with this solution with the Canadian in hot pursuit. As
the low progresses westward, several shortwaves will rotate around
the center with light precipitation spreading into the Southern
Copper Basin by late tonight. The vertical temperature profile is
cold enough that the precipitation type will be all snow. Light snow
will spread up towards the center of the Basin Saturday morning
before winding down Saturday afternoon and evening. When all is said
and done, the southern half of the basin could see about 1-3 inches.
Increased precipitation chances for Prince William Sound for the
weekend with coastal mountains seeing snow and rain at lower
elevations. A few showers may make it over the mountains, but any
precipitation will remain light and will end by late Saturday
evening as a new surface low deepens over the Barren Islands.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Broad longwave troughing remains stretched across the Bering Sea
and eastwards over the Mainland and Gulf of Alaska through today.
Surface troughing over the Bering from roughly Nunivak Island to
the Aleutian Chain continues to promote generally north-
northwesterly flow and cold air advection across the Bering,
maintaining the scattered snow and rain/snow mix shower activity
along the Aleutian Chain through tonight. Generally weak flow and
areas of clear skies over Southwest Alaska has led to pockets of
low stratus and patchy fog expected to persist through the morning
hours today, with any lingering snow showers expected to
dissipate by this afternoon.

A quieter period of weather is expected across the region through
this weekend as the upper level flow weakens, with mainly dry and
relatively calm conditions other than continued scattered showers
over the Bering. A series of lows will track along the southern
periphery of the Aleutian Chain in the North Pacific through the
weekend, although anything more than a slight uptick in winds and
precipitation chances are expected to remain to the south of the
Aleutians into early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

By Monday afternoon, models are in solid agreement that there
will be a deep, gale to storm force low moving northward across
the Gulf of Alaska towards the Gulf Coast. This will cause an
increase in gap winds for usual locations across Southcentral
Alaska. Being on the northwestern side of this low, the northern
Cook Inlet region would have a strong down-inlet component to the
wind. For the strongest winds, places to watch will be Kayak
Island to the southern Prince William Sound locations as a barrier
jet sets up ahead of the incoming low. As this low retrogrades
into Prince William Sound or rounds the southern tip of the Kenai
Peninsula Tuesday morning, northwesterly gap winds develop for the
Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians. As this low tracks along
the coast, expect precipitation to fill in for usual coastal areas
with upslope enhancement, with a downslope hole potentially
developing in lee of the Kenai Mountains for the northern Cook
Inlet region.

Continued gale to storm force North Pacific lows continue to work
their way into the region by Wednesday morning. The GFS seems to
want to bring another deep low into the Gulf, while other models
show a much weaker and compact low across the eastern Gulf. To the
west, models are in much better agreement of a gale to storm
force North Pacific low moving south of the Aleutian Chain also by
Wednesday morning. For the Bering and Aleutians, temperatures are
on track to remain below average, with near to above average
temperatures for Southcentral Alaska.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
continue through the TAF period. There is a low chance (10 to 20
percent) of fog in the morning as clear skies lead to strong
radiational cooling and development of steam fog over the inlet.
Any fog that does develop this morning is expected to dissipate by
late morning to early afternoon as dewpoint depressions widen by
then.

&&

$$