Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

170
FXAK68 PAFC 091326
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
526 AM AKDT Sat May 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Monday)...

Two separate upper level systems, one over Southwest and the
other over the Gulf, are beginning to interact with one another
this morning. The main result of this interaction across
Southcentral is yet another unseasonably wet May morning for much
of the region. Multiple bands of rain are now moving along a
deformation zone situated between a trough moving near the western
Alaska Range and the low drifting north into the Gulf. Rain and
high elevation snow is also spreading into the northern Gulf Coast
and Prince William Sound along and ahead of the low`s occluded
front. A few spots have even managed to switch over to wet snow
even near sea level given seasonably cool temperatures hanging out
mostly in the 30s, including around Whittier and Portage Valley.

A generally cool, wet and showery pattern will continue for the
remainder of the weekend into early next week. Much of the Mat-Su
Valleys and Anchorage will temporarily dry out by this afternoon
as increasing southeast flow leads to more downslope drying on the
leeside of the Chugach Mountains. Generally wet conditions will
persist along the coast as the Gulf low weakens and shifts towards
the Kenai Peninsula through Sunday morning. The low and supporting
upper trough will begin to shear apart as both features continue
to shift northwest into Southcentral towards Sunday afternoon.
Meanwhile, a portion of the upper level low drifting over
Southwest will stretch out and lift northeast as a negatively-
tilted shortwave trough, shifting up the Cook Inlet into the Mat-
Su region by Sunday night. This feature will push another round of
rain showers north from Kenai and Homer up into Anchorage and the
Mat-Su valleys between midday Sunday and Sunday night. Pressure
rises behind both the incoming shortwave trough and the
dissipating low reaching the coast will also help drive another
round of southerly gap winds on Sunday afternoon, most notably
across the Copper River Valley.

Another break in the wet weather over inland areas is expected for
Monday as the upper level shortwave trough continues north into
the Interior and as a transient upper ridge moves in behind it.
Gap winds will also intensify throughout the day as a strong
coastal ridge builds out ahead of a deep low moving across the
Bering Sea. Rain and mountain snow will mostly stay confined to
the coast between the southern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince
William Sound due to increasing southeast winds and upslope flow
along the coastal mountains.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday)...

Synoptically speaking, the main feature at hand is an upper level
low slowly moving southward over the Southwest Interior. With it
bringing in colder air aloft, lapse rates have steepened, which
will allow for shower activity to be on the increase this
afternoon. An occluded low moving northward across the Gulf is
interacting with this low in the upper levels by creating a
deformation precipitation band, which will begin to pivot across
the eastern fringes of Southwest Alaska through this afternoon
with rain/snow.

Elsewhere, the main weather players consist of surface high
pressure centered across the eastern Bering, a decaying, remnant
front/trough west of the Pribilofs, and a Kamchatka low pressure
system moving closer to the Western Aleutians.

As we go into Sunday morning, the deformation band of
precipitation looks to continue to move westward across Lime
Village and points southward while the Gulf low nears the Gulf
coast and the upper level low over the Southwest becomes quasi-
stationary. Model guidance Sunday morning also shows convective
showers forming across the Kuskokwim Delta and most of the
Southwest Interior Sunday morning. Temperatures will be cold
enough during the morning hours to support snow showers, but rain
will begin to mix in as surface temperatures warm to near 40F for
Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile, looking westward, the Kamchatka front moves across the
Western Aleutians with rainfall and gusty winds Sunday morning
through Sunday afternoon. Current thinking is that the front will
be on a weakening trend as it moves across the area, but still
high end small craft with gusts to gale force winds are still
likely from Shemya to Adak. Models show the front weakening
further Monday morning and becoming increasingly elongated as it
does so while the parent low moves southeastward and tracks along
the Aleutian Chain.


-AM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and
progressive pattern through the long term forecast.

The front from an unseasonable Bering low will generate heavy
rainfall over Eastern Kenai Peninsula and western Prince William
Sound on Tuesday. The low progresses eastward to the AK Pen by
Tuesday morning, south of Kodiak Island Wednesday morning, then
reaching the Gulf overnight Wednesday. Periods of wind and rain
will be generated along the path of the low, including the
Northern Gulf Coast.

An upper level low coming out of Kamchatka arrives in the Bering
Sea Thursday morning and dissipates rapidly. A North Pacific low
travels to the south of the Aluetian Islands. There is little
confidence on the strength or exact track of the system.

&&





.AVIATION...

PANC...Cloud ceilings below 5000 ft expected until ~18Z. Light
rain will continue this morning, becoming showery in the
afternoon. North winds will flip to southerly after 01Z.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.

&&


$$