Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

889
FXAK68 PAFC 070456
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
856 PM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

Afternoon satellite imagery reveals the Gulf low that has caused
the steady rain along the coast and showers inland over the last
few days has moved north to around Prince William Sound. This low
will continue to weaken through Wednesday morning as it dissipates.
Shower activity will also decrease in coverage and intensity as
well through Wednesday as the low continues to weaken and
dissipate.

An upper-level shortwave, currently over the Yukon Delta, will
dig southeastward and over the northern Susitna Valley late
tonight and Wednesday. Southerly upslope flow along with cooling
temperatures will allow for light snow to develop along the Parks
Highway north of Talkeetna late tonight through Wednesday. The
most likely place for snow to reach road level tonight into
Wednesday will be from Chulitna northward towards Windy Pass.
Light snow is also possible across the northern Copper River Basin
Wednesday into early Thursday; mainly for Paxson.

The shortwave responsible for the northern Susitna Valley and
northern Copper River Basin light snow Wednesday will move east
through interior Alaska as it weakens for Thursday. Shower
activity will diminish by mid-morning Thursday across interior
Southcentral Alaska. Along the coast, scattered showers will taper
off by Thursday afternoon as another disturbance in the Gulf
weakens and dissipates. An upper-level ridge moves overhead from
Southwest Alaska Thursday night into Friday morning. There is
uncertainty in fog formation in association with this ridge as it
will depend if clouds break and conditions can become clear during
the night to take advantage of radiational cooling.

All-in-all Thursday, especially the second half of Thursday, is
shaping up to be a nicer weather day with highs in the 40s across
Southcentral and low rain chances. Friday also looks good too.
However, clouds will begin to build in for the second half of
Friday as a front over Southwest will approach Southcentral. Rain
looks to reach southern Kodiak Island by Friday afternoon and work
east to Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula by Friday evening.

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Wednesday through Friday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong storm system will impact the Bering Sea, Aleutian
  Islands, and Southwest Alaska through the end of the week.

* For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands: The strongest winds
  will be today through Thursday afternoon. High Wind Warning is
  in effect for Shemya east through Atka. High Wind Watch is in
  effect for the Pribilof Islands. Wind Advisory is in effect for
  Unalaska.

* For Southwest Alaska and Alaska Peninsula: Timing of the
  strongest wind gusts will be Thursday into the weekend,
  approaching 40-50 mph. Coastal flooding is unlikely, but a High
  Surf Advisory is in effect from Thursday morning to Friday
  morning.

Discussion:

A front from a Kamchatka low is promoting gales west of Atka.
Into tonight, interaction between the low and remnants of ex-
Typhoon Choi-wan will strengthen the winds associated with the
front into the afternoon hours on Wednesday. There is high
confidence of storm-force winds and hurricane-force gusts, which
has prompted High Wind Warnings for Shemya, Adak, and Atka. The
warnings are set to expire Thursday morning as the front
progresses east.

In addition to strong winds, large portions of the Bering Sea
will see wave heights of 25 ft or greater, with wave heights as
high as 30 to 35 ft in the far western Bering.

Forecast models are in good agreement with the front reaching the
Pribilof Islands in a weakened state Wednesday night into
Thursday, though the extent of weakening is less certain. There is
a greater probability that the region extending from the Pribilof
Islands down into the Eastern Aleutians, including Unalaska and
poinst farther east, will still experience gale force winds (~40
mph) with gusts up to 40 to 55 mph. Subsequently, a High Wind
Advisory is in effect for Unalaska Thursday morning until Thursday
afternoon. Despite a weakening front, gusts as high as 75 mph
cannot be ruled out for the Pribilof Islands, where a High Wind
Advisory is in effect for Unalaska Thursday morning until Thursday
afternoon.

We also continue to monitor the potential for high surf along the
Kuskokwim Delta coastline, especially for south-facing
communities like Kwigillingok and Kongiganak. While wind speeds
aren`t likely to as strong, winds gusts could still approach 45
mph in some locations. A long duration of southerly winds in
combination with a long fetch will certainly support high surf.
Thus, a High Surf Advisory is in effect from Thursday morning to
Friday morning. Gusty winds are likely to persist into Friday.


-SS/BL

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A deep upper low starts to move into the northern Bering Sea and
the high amplitude ridge over the southern mainland starts to
breakdown, moving eastward and allowing for more moisture
advection under south to southwesterly flow. The front associated
with the Bering low, will lift across the Gulf of Alaska over the
weekend with strong southeasterly at the surface winds. Ample
moisture is expected to move through Southcentral with most of the
precipitation focused toward Kodiak Island, the northern Gulf
coast, and Prince William Sound. Southeast flow would promote
precipitation enhancement through orographic lift along the
windward slopes and downslope drying to the leeside. The amount of
precipitation will depend on the progression of the front and
surface low development in the Gulf. The Bering low and the upper
level flow into southern mainland starts to weaken Sunday night
and although some showers could linger, the bulk of moisture
starts to hedge toward the northeastern Gulf. Confidence decreases
Monday and Tuesday with the Bering low weakening and the embedded
shortwaves along the upper level flow begins to shift the overall
pattern. It appears the Bering low starts to interact with energy
to the south of the Aleutians. By Wednesday, the upper trough is
generally focused near Unalaska and the Alaska Peninsula and a
brief ridge returns to southern mainland before a frontal passage
passes through the region with additional moisture and strong
winds. Beyond the emergence of this low, models disagree with how
it progresses in time, strength of the low with its accompanying
features, and the location of the strongest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings are expected for this afternoon, but lower
cloud decks will remain with rain in the vicinity. Conditions are
expected to lower into MVFR and perhaps IFR/LIFR tonight through
Wednesday morning. Generally light southeast winds are expected,
but higher gusts up to 15 kts cannot be ruled out after 09Z
tonight through 21Z Wednesday.

&&

$$