Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

248
FXAK68 PAFC 091406
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 AM AKST Mon Nov 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3 / Monday - Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

* Impactful storm system set to affect Southcentral Alaska Monday
  into Tuesday

* Multiple Winter Weather Advisories have been issued across
  Southcentral from Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

* Blizzard Warning has been issued for Thompson Pass Monday into
  Tuesday.

* Wind Advisories in effect for portions of Southcentral Alaska
  through Tuesday morning.


A strong low continues to track toward the souther Kenai
Peninsula and Kodiak Island region, bringing widespread
precipitation and increasing winds to Southcentral through
Tuesday. Model guidance continues to depict a well-developed low
moving into the northern Gulf, with a tightening pressure gradient
supporting gusty winds across portions of the region. The GFS and
Canadian solutions show some difference in the placement and
evolution of the low, though both support an active weather
pattern through the middle of the week. Wind advisories are in
effect portions of Southcentral Alaska through Tuesday morning.
Northerly winds gusting up to 55 mph are expected around Seward
this afternoon and tonight, while east to southeast winds gusting
55 to 65 mph will develop across eastern Turnagain Arm, the
Interior Kenai Peninsula, and Whittier late tonight into Tuesday
morning. Winds will gradually diminish Tuesday.

Precipitation will initially begin as snow across much of
Southcentral, particularly along the eastern Kenai Peninsula,
Kodiak Island, and Prince William Sound coast. As warmer air moves
northward early Tuesday morning, precipitation along coastal
locations will transition from snow to freezing rain and
eventually rain. Farther inland, colder air will remain in place
longer, allowing snow to persist across the western Kenai
Peninsula, Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley before a potential
transition to freezing rain and rain. The timing of this
transition remains dependent on how quickly warmer air can
overcome the colder air near the surface.

The greatest potential for freezing rain continues to be Tuesday
morning as warmer air gradually moves northward over the colder
surface air. However, colder air draining southward from the
Matanuska Valley through the Glenn Highway corridor into
Anchorage may delay transition, allowing snow or freezing
precipitation. The higher elevations will have the greatest
potential for prolonged snowfall before any preciptiation-type
change.

Across the Copper River Basin, northerly winds combined
with steady snowfall will produce hazardous winter weather
conditions, particularly from Thompson Pass northward toward
Tonsina. As warmer air advances into the region TUesday morning,
winds are expected to gradually shift toward the south, allowing
precipitation to transition to freezing rain and eventually rain
in some locations. The greatest potential for accumulating snow
and ice remains along the Thompson Pass to Tonsina corridor, where
colder air may be slower to erode.

By Wednesday, model guidance indicates the primary low will
continue to evolve across the Gulf, with additional areas of
enhanced winds and precipitation rotating around the broader
circulation. While the strongest impacts are expected Monday into
Tuesday, unsettled conditions will persist across Southcentral.
Gusty winds should gradually diminish in may locations as the
initial storm weakens and shifts away, though periods of
precipitation will continue, especially along the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and western Prince William Sound coast. Additional
shortwaves moving northeastward across the Gulf may maintain
showers through Wednesday.

LM


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Steady, northeasterly flow across the Bering continues this
morning with a lack of significant pressure systems in the area. A
widespread low-to-mid level stratus deck continues to blanket
Southwest Alaska and the Bering. Areas of fog along the Bristol
Bay coast and northern AKPen have developed overnight and is
expected to persist through the morning hours today. Weak
shortwaves tracking north across Southwest Alaska this morning
will continue to bring snow showers mainly to the interior through
this morning. The widespread showery pattern over the Bering
continues through Tuesday with cool air flowing in over the Sea.

The pattern begins to shift and become more active on Tuesday as
a strong low pressure system in the Gulf tracks west over Cook
Inlet and inland, followed by a strengthening North Pacific low
approaching the Aleutian Chain by Tuesday night. While the bulk of
precipitation associated with the low in the Gulf will remain
east or over the terrain of the western Alaska Range, a few snow
showers (20 to 30% chance) may spill over into the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Lime Village Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning.
Northwesterly winds across the eastern Bering and AKPen increase
Tuesday morning as the Gulf low moves inland and weak ridging over
the Bering progresses eastward, bringing gale-force gusts through
favored bays and passes through Wednesday morning.

By late Tuesday, a gale-force front associated with a North
Pacific low lifts north towards the western Aleutians. This system
is expected to bring widespread gusty winds and precipitation
likely in the form of rain or a rain/snow mix from the western
Aleutians to Adak and Atka Tuesday night into Wednesday morning,
with the potential (60 to 70% chance) for a period of gale-force
winds for Adak and Atka. Gusty, southeasterly winds will progress
eastward along the Chain as the low tracks along the southern side
of the Aleutians through midweek. However, confidence on the
strength of the winds decreases as the front reaches Unalaska by
Wednesday afternoon, with uncertainty remaining on the northward
extent of the low track before it continues into the North
Pacific. A more northerly solution would be expected to bring a
period of stronger southeast winds to Unalaska and northwesterly
winds to Adak and Atka Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening. Stay tuned for forecast updates as the pattern once again
becomes more active through midweek.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The long term is characterized by lows moving into the Bering and
from the west and from the North Pacific. These lows will bring
active weather to Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska.
Tuesday starts off with a North Pacific low moving into the
Bering. Gale to storm force winds and moderate to heavy rain over
the Aleutians accompany this low. Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska
sees light rain and snow for coastal regions and Kodiak Island
with inland areas remaining drier due to weak lows and waves over
the region. Thursday sees the low move eastward into the Gulf of
Alaska, bringing winds and rain to Southcentral Alaska while the
back end of the low allows for continued winds and rain/snow over
the Aleutians and AKPEN.

Friday has the low continue eastward, approaching the Alexander
Archipelago. Rain/snow should clear out for much of Southcentral
Alaska. Gap winds continue around the waters of Kodiak Island. A
ridge builds over the Bering, leading to drier and calmer
conditions over much of Southwest Alaska. However, northerly flow
allows for gap winds in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
areas. Also, another low moves into the Shemya area from the
west, bringing another round of gusty winds and rainfall. Saturday
sees this low move further into the Bering, allowing for the
low`s front to progress and bring rain to much of the Aleutians.
Gusty winds also will impact the Aleutians. The track of this low
is uncertain at this point, so more or less rains and wind is
possible depending on the true track of the low.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Light northerly winds early this morning will gradually
increase through the day, with gusts to around 20 kt developing by
late morning and continuing into the afternoon. There is also the
potential for low-level wind shear beginning around 16Z today,
with northerly winds around 25kt at 2,000ft AGL. There is a
slight chance (20-30%) for light snow to move into the terminal
late this afternoon into the evening.

-LM

&&


$$