Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

568
FXAK68 PAFC 291317
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 AM AKDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)...

Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery reveals a broad low
spinning over the Bering Sea this morning. Extending ahead of the
low a front stretches down across the Alaska Peninsula into a
developing triple point low approximately 160 nm south of Sand
Point. Snow is forecast to expand in coverage from south to north
across Kodiak Island today as the front overtakes the region and
the triple point low shifts eastward into the southern Gulf
through tomorrow. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for
Kodiak Island, starting at 4am for Southwest Kodiak Island, and
4pm for Northeast Kodiak Island. The advisories expire at 5pm and
10pm AKDT Monday respectively. Anywhere from 4 to 10 inches of
snow remain possible through Monday night. Snow totals on the lee
side of Kodiak Island will be much lower with perhaps a couple of
inches. Regarding winds, they should be easterly and at around 10
to 20 mph on Sunday. As low pressure southeast of Kodiak Island
becomes more organized tonight into Monday, winds will become
northeasterly and increase into the 20 to 30 mph range. Blowing
snow is not anticipated due to the warmer temperatures hovering
near 32 degrees.

Most of the remainder of Southcentral will remain dry and feel no
effects from this system. However, the easterly to southeasterly
flow coming around the extreme southern Gulf to northern North
Pacific low will cause some upslope snow showers along the eastern
facing slopes of the Kenai Mountains and along the mountain
ranges of Western Prince William Sound Sunday evening through
Monday. The low pressure system responsible for the bout of snow
across Kodiak Island Sunday and Monday will track farther
southeast for Tuesday with another dry day in store area wide.

BL/DN

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Key Message: A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the
Kuskokwim Coast and Western Capes through 8AM Sunday for snow and
blowing snow reducing visibility down to one half mile at times.

Discussion:

A large and occluded low is centered near Saint Matthew Island
this morning as its front continues to come to a stall just
offshore of the Kuskokwim Coast. The Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect through 8AM this morning for the Kuskokwim Coast
and Western Capes as a combination of snowfall and gusty
southeasterly winds lofting snow is creating low visibility for
immediate coastal locations like Toksook Bay and Kipnuk. Snow is
also moving closer to Bristol Bay, where snowfall accumulations
will add up to 4 to 7 inches for Dillingham. Blocked by high
pressure inland, the front will remain offshore and weaken through
the morning, allowing for blowing snow concerns to diminish. The
Alaska Peninsula will also see up to 4 inches or so as energy
shifts to a deepening triple point low to the south, though
snowfall will be ongoing and finally ending from north to south
for Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula through midday Monday.

Attention then shifts early Tuesday morning to a North Pacific
low approaching the Western Aleutians as its front lifts northward
towards the rest of the Aleutian Chain. The global models do show
some degree of timing differences in the frontal progression
through midday Tuesday, as the NAM seems to be slower with the
front and situates its parent low farther south than the GFS, EC,
and Canadian. The overnight 06z run of the NAM does show better
agreement with the rest of the guidance in comparison to the 00z
run. Regardless, for Adak and Atka, with highs near 40F, lows in
the mid 30s, and snow levels slowly rising to around 1000 ft, a
rain/snow mix is favored for precipitation type, with perhaps more
rain than snow during the afternoon hours. All of the guidance
does keep the area of low pressure itself south of the Aleutians
through the end of the short term.

-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The active storm tracks through the long-term period remain south
of the Mainland, with several low pressure systems traversing
eastwards across the North Pacific and into the Gulf. This will
continue to keep much of the Mainland dry through midweek with
most active weather being confined to the Aleutian Chain, Alaska
Peninsula, and Kodiak Island in the form of modest winds and a mix
of rain and snow. By Friday, a low developing along the triple
point may form in the western Gulf, which would promote a more
active pattern for Southcentral Alaska. Easterly winds to increase
along the Gulf coast into next weekend, with precipitation
spreading along the region as well. Some stronger northerly gap
winds through typical locations will remain possible through the
period as these systems track into the Gulf. Temperatures trending
warmer and approaching seasonal averages across Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska look to remain steady through the long-term.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$