Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

989
FXAK68 PAFC 080205
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
605 PM AKDT Wed Oct 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Evening satellite imagery continues to show areas of cloud cover
stretched across Southcentral in association with trough along the
Gulf coast. An eastward moving shortwave moving in from the west
will keep just enough lift over Southcentral for some periodic
shower activity through the rest of the evening and some isolated
rain and snow showers overnight for the northern Copper River
Basin.

By tomorrow morning (Thursday), the shortwave and colder air
aloft associated with it should have moved to the AlCan border.
This results in a weak ridge moving over Southcentral which should
end most of the shower activity around the region. However,
abundant low level moisture remains in the area. This will
increase the potential for fog to develop tonight into Thursday
morning. Fog development will be highly dependent on clearing
skies to bring radiational cooling. The highest chances for
overnight fog tonight are currently in the northern Cook Inlet and
the Copper River Valley east of Eureka. With the ridge overhead
Thursday, especially the second half of Thursday, is shaping up to
be a nicer weather day with highs in the 40s across Southcentral.
Some drier air mixing down under the ridge lowers the chances of
fog Thursday night, though some patches may still develop.

Friday looks good too. However, clouds begin to move in Friday
afternoon as a front from Southwest/Bering approaches
Southcentral. Rain will reach southern Kodiak Island first by late
Friday morning and work northeastward to Cook Inlet, Kenai
Peninsula, western Susitna Valley and the northern Gulf Coast by
Friday evening. Most of the road system should remain warm enough
for rain, with higher passes (Broad Pass, Thompson Pass, Eureka)
having a mix of rain and snow. This front will stream moisture
into the region through the weekend, which will maintain
precipitation for much of the region on Saturday. This front also
pushes into a bit of a coastal ridge, which looks to ramp up
southeast winds through gaps like Turnagain Arm. This will lead to
downsloping for the western Kenai Peninsula through Anchorage
into the lower Mat- Su, which may limit precipitation in hose
areas through Saturday when upper level support is lower. Still,
at least a 30 chance of precipitation is in the forecast Saturday
for the western Kenai through the Mat-Su. Downsloping winds off
the Chugach will keep most of the central and northern Copper
River Basin dry through Saturday as well.

PA


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Wednesday through Friday)...

Key Messages:

* Kuskokwim Delta: A front stalls near the coast and undergoes
  renewed frontogenesis, prolonging strong winds and coastal
  impacts. A Wind Advisory has issued for 8 AM Thursday to 1 PM
  Friday.

* Coastal Impacts: Persistent onshore flow will maintain elevated
  surf along the Kuskokwim Delta coast. The High Surf Advisory has
  been extended from 8 AM Thursday to 3 PM Friday.

* Unalaska: Wind Advisory remains in effect from 5 AM to 1 PM
  Thursday.

* Adak/Atka: High Wind Warning remains in effect from 5 PM this
  afternoon to 4 AM Thursday, with the strongest winds in Adak.


Discussion:

An amplified upper-level pattern continues across the Bering Sea
as the associated surface low and front progress eastward. Strong
southerly flow ahead of the front continues to produce the most
significant winds across the central and eastern Aleutians. A High
Wind Warning remains in effect for Adak and Atka, with the
strongest winds expected at Adak. Farther east, a Wind Advisory
remains in effect for Unalaska, where southerly flow will continue
to support locally enhanced winds through favored gaps and passes.

Across the Pribilof Islands, the latest guidance has continued to
trend slightly lower with peak wind gusts now expected to remain
just below High Wind Warning criteria. Therefore, the High Wind
Watch has been cancelled. Strong and gusty winds are still
expected, but confidence has increased (50-60%) that gusts will
stay between 60-70 mph.

Farther east, the front will slow and eventually stall near the
Kuskokwim Delta as the upper-level pattern becomes increasingly
amplified. Renewed frontogenesis along the stalled boundary will
allow the front to strengthen again, maintaining a tightened
pressure gradient and prolonging gusty winds along the coast. A
Wind Advisory for the Kuskokwim Delta has been extended.
Persistent onshore flow will also maintain elevated surf, with a
High Surf Advisory extending to include a third tide cycle on
Friday.

Thursday into Friday, the upper-level pattern gradually shifts
eastward, allowing the stalled front to weaken and winds to
diminish across much of Southwest Alaska and the Bering Sea.
Showers and locally breezy conditions will linger behind the front
before conditions gradually improve.

LM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A deep upper low in the northern Bering Sea with an upper level
ridge over the Southcentral starts to breakdown Sunday, allowing
for moisture advection under southwesterly flow through southern
mainland. Winds begin to diminish, but showery precipitation will
linger for Southwest Alaska as the front moves inland. A surface
low will develop along the front in the Gulf of Alaska, with
strong, southeasterly surface winds. Ample moisture is expected to
move through the Gulf and Southcentral. Most of the precipitation
will be focused toward Kodiak Island, the northern Gulf coast,
and Prince William Sound. The bulk of the moisture looks to move
into the northeastern Gulf Monday. Southeast flow would promote
precipitation enhancement through orographic lift along the
windward slopes and downslope drying to the leeside. The amount of
precipitation will depend on the progression of the front, the
amount of precipitable water in the vertical column, and the
location/time of the surface low the Gulf.

Confidence decreases early next week as the main upper level
trough starts to phase with a potentially vigorous low emerging
from the North Pacific, south of the Aleutians. Some data suggests
that this low tracks more north into the Bering (20 to 30 percent
chance), but another batch of data (and the current forecast with
50 to 60 percent confidence) suggests a track that remains to the
south of the Aleutians, toward the western Gulf. There will be
plenty of moisture with this system, but the amount of
precipitation for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula will depend
upon the strength of this low as it approaches the Aleutians. As
this combined trough moves east midweek, we start to see
additional breakdowns in model consensus (and therefore
confidence) for the wind forecast, especially as the front
approaches the Gulf and Southcentral. Although the current
guidance suggests sustained gale force winds with storm force
gusts along the front, this system has the potential to produce
sustained storm force winds (20 to 30 percent chance) across the
Gulf and along the northern Gulf coast into Prince William Sound.
This will be dependent upon not only the strength of low pressure
system, but also its placement in relation to the geographic
features across southern mainland Wednesday and Thursday. The
forecast is expected to evolve - check back for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Generally VFR with light southeast winds and showers in
the vicinity through this evening. The potential for fog (20 to 30
percent chance) and lower ceilings (60 percent chance) returns
tonight around midnight through Thursday morning.

&&

$$