Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXAK68 PAFC 051346
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKST Thu Feb 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Saturday night)...

The large upper level low which had been nearly stationary over
the North Pacific the past several days has now opened up into a
short-wave trough and is tracking northwestward across the western
Gulf and into southern Alaska. Meanwhile, the corresponding surface
low is tracking westward south of the Alaska Peninsula. Deep
southeast flow is in place across the Gulf and Southcentral, with
rain and mountains snow from Kodiak to the southern and eastern
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Downslope flow across
the coastal mountains is leading to dry conditions over inland
areas of Southcentral. While temperatures have cooled a bit since
yesterday morning, they are still well above normal with all but
the Copper River Basin sitting in the 30s to lower 40s.

The strongest portion of the upper trough will move from the
western Gulf to Southwest Alaska today. However, numerous
vorticity maxima will track across Southcentral and combine with
upslope flow along the coastal mountains to maintain steady
precipitation, moderate in intensity across the eastern Kenai
Peninsula. The upper level trough will exit northward tonight into
Friday morning and a short-wave ridge will build over Southcentral.
This will bring an end to precipitation, lead to partial clearing,
and allow temperatures to drop back below freezing for most of the
region.

Attention will then shift to the northeast Pacific where a new
vertically stacked low will set up shop. This will be similar to
the pattern we were just in, but with the low centered farther
east. Yet another low and frontal system will track north out of
the Pacific and across the Gulf. While modes have been struggling
with the details of this system, they all show the same general
idea. As the low and front lift into the Gulf on Friday, the
vertically stacked low in the northeast Pacific will progress
eastward and ultimately absorb the Gulf low back into its
circulation. The main impact of this is to keep the frontal
system offshore of the Gulf coast and rapidly weaken the front
Friday through Saturday. Thus, expect weaker winds and lighter
precipitation for Kodiak Island and coastal Southcentral. Warmer
air will again move off the Gulf leading to low elevation rain and
mountain snow, though snow levels look like they will be lower
than they currently are - roughly in the 1000 to 1500 foot range
above sea level.

The lack of strong cross barrier flow across the coastal mountains
means some light precipitation will likely spread inland Saturday
through Saturday night. At this point in time, confidence for
which areas will see precipitation is low. In addition, there is
quite a bit of uncertainty in how much warm air makes it over the
coastal mountains and whether precipitation will fall as snow or
a mix of rain (or freezing rain) and snow.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3:)...

A North Pacific low currently sitting just south of Cold Bay is
bringing moisture to the southern Alaska Peninsula and Aleutian
Chain. Most precipitation is falling in the form of rain while
areas west of Unalaska will see gusty northerly winds and snow
showers prevail through tomorrow. The communities of Adak and Atka
may experience periods of reduced visibility under these
conditions.


As the low progresses north into the Bering Sea today, it will
bring northeasterly winds and precipitation to the Pribilof
Islands. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for a wintry
mix of snow, sleet, and possibly freezing rain. Blowing snow is
also possible this morning with wind gusts up to 30 mph. This
product is in effect from 5 AM this morning until 7 AM Friday.

By the start of the weekend, a strong Kamchatka low will begin
impacting the region. Expect gale to storm force winds as its
front marches across the Aleutians on Saturday. A vigorous trough
rotating around the aforementioned parent low will rapidly deepen
as it barrels across the Aleutian Chain and into the Bering Sea
on Sunday. This is followed by yet another very strong low looking
to cross the Aleutians on Monday. There is uncertainty about the
exact timing and strength of these storms at this time, but be
prepared for a very windy and wet weekend and week ahead for the
Aleutians, Bering Sea, and Southwest Alaska.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...

Towards the end of the weekend, a broad, complex low pressure
system will be centered several hundred miles south of Kodiak
Island, while a deeper more consolidated low will be situated
between Kamchatka and the western Aleutians. Between these lows, a
fairly sharp ridge extends north across the Aleutians into the
central Bering Sea. Deep longwave troughing over the far western
Bering Sea will promote a much stormier pattern through the
weekend into early next week. The complex low south of Kodiak
Island lifts into the Gulf through the weekend, bringing wet,
rainy weather along the coast from the Pacific side of the Alaska
Peninsula up to the north Gulf coast. As the low elongates and
slides toward Southeast Alaska on Sunday and Monday, moisture and
upper level troughing will nudge in over Southcentral, which may
allow precipitation to spread into the region. The best chances
for this will be over the Copper River Basin, where some snow
showers will be possible. Southcentral valleys, there are lower
chances for precipitation, but warmer temperatures in the low-
levels suggest that there is a greater chance that this
precipitation would fall as rain or freezing rain.

A more significant feature tracks up from the North Pacific into
the vicinity of the eastern Aleutians/Alaska Peninsula by Sunday
afternoon. As the low crosses the Aleutians, strong winds as high
as 75 mph are possible as the low center progresses north into the
southern Bering. As the low tracks northward, model spread
increases with some solutions bringing the low center west of the
Pribilofs and some to the East by Monday morning. These different
tracks would result in a strong difference in wind direction and
precipitation type for the Pribilofs. Snowfall from this system
would be easily blown around by the low as it spins down, leading
to periods of significantly reduced visibility.

Another deep low looking to track along the Aleutians or lift
into the Bering Sea on Monday afternoon and Tuesday, quickly
following the aforementioned system. This has potential to produce
another round of moderate to heavy rain for the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula in addition to further potential for strong wind
gusts in excess of 75 mph. By Tuesday morning, the low`s front
may reach Southwest Alaska. There is growing confidence that this
system will quickly move into the eastern Bering Sea, reaching the
Southwest Alaska coastline by Tuesday evening. Strong onshore
flow may promote higher wave action near shore.

CL/LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Light northerly winds less than 10 knots will also
persist. Ceilings may drop to the 5000 foot level on Thursday as
southeasterly flow aloft weakens somewhat and becomes more
southerly during the afternoon and evening hours. A shower or two
spilling over the mountains Thursday afternoon to Thursday evening
will be possible with the weakening and more southerly flow
aloft. However, the terminal should largely remain dry through the
TAF period.

&&


$$