Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

740
FXAK68 PAFC 121350
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 AM AKST Thu Nov 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3/Today through Saturday Night)...

A long-wave trough is firmly entrenched over the Bering Sea and
Alaska, anchored by a closed low circulation over the eastern
Bering Sea. A plethora of short-wave troughs are tracking from the
Aleutians to the Gulf and then curving northward into Southcentral.

As of 4 AM, the compact gale force surface low that brought
gusty winds to Prince William Sound (PWS) and the eastern Kenai
Peninsula have moved well inland over interior Alaska. A light
wintry mix of precipitation lingers from Cook Inlet north across
the Susitna Valley this morning, but is tapering off from south to
north. The overall environment remains favorable for freezing
rain from the western Kenai Peninsula north to Anchorage and
vicinity, with a prominent warm nose (area of  above freezing)
still noted in the 12z (3 AM) Anchorage sounding up to 1800 ft.

With temperatures only a couple degrees above or below freezing,
any lingering precipitation early this morning will likely fall
as very light freezing rain. As precipitation ends by mid morning,
temperatures could fall below freezing, meaning roads will likely
remain slick in spot, especially for bridges and overpasses,
through the morning commute.

Meanwhile, additional upper level short-waves will track toward
and through PWS through tonight, maintaining steady rain for
Cordova and Valdez. Precipitation with these waves will likely be
more showery in nature as these bands move across the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and over northern Cook Inlet later this morning.
The warm nose will be eroding as this next round of precipitation
moves in in conjunction with surface temperatures warming into the
lower to mid 30s. Thus, this next round of showers will likely
fall as a rain/snow mix from Kenai to Anchorage with snow showers
likely into the central and northern Susitna Valley.

Most of Southcentral will dry out Thursday night as there is a
break in short-waves and low level flow shifts to northerly in
response to a deep Pacific low tracking moving into the northeast
Pacific. The exception will be Kodiak Island, where a trough axis
will set up shop and bring steady precipitation Thursday night
through Friday night or Saturday. The air aloft looks cold enough
for snow. However, some models indicate a meso-scale low just
east of Kodiak Island. This could introduce flow off the Gulf and
lead to just enough warm air to produce a mix of rain and snow for
Kodiak City and other Gulf coast locations. In any case, even if
it does fall as all snow, temperatures will be near freezing and
the snow will be fairly wet. Thus, several inches of wet
accumulation are possible, with much higher amounts as you head up
in elevation.

As we head to Saturday, a warm front extending north from the
aforementioned low in the Northeast Pacific will track westward
across the Gulf as an upper level short-wave approaches from the
Bering. This is favorable for a "deformation band" of heavier
precipitation. It`s too early to say exactly where that will set
up, but right now model guidance mostly favors the Kenai
Peninsula, with some potential that precipitation reaches
Anchorage. Precipitation will also be a challenge as precipitation
first arrives, though with warming from the east would expect a
snow to rain transition.

-SEB/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Northerly flow continues to advect colder air across the region
in the lower and mid levels. In response to the added instability
from cooler air moving in aloft, open cell, convective snow
showers are visible on satellite moving from north to south across
the Bering. Meanwhile, remnants of a Gulf low are bringing light
snow across the lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay areas this
morning. This period of snow will be short lived and will begin
to taper by midday today, but light snowfall accumulations of 0.5
to 2 inches are expected.

By Friday morning, two additional systems of interest move into
the region. First, a North Pacific low skirts well south of the
Aleutian Chain, though will reactivate northwesterly gap winds
for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Friday afternoon. The
second system of note will be moving across the Western Aleutian
chain in the form of a high end small craft to gale force front
late Friday as its parent low moves eastward across the north-
central Bering by Saturday afternoon with additional westerly
high end small crafts and gales for the Central and southern
Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Troughing continues into early next week over Southern Alaska and
the Bering. Multiple lows will move through the forecast area
through the middle of next week, resulting in a more unsettled
weather pattern.

By Sunday morning, a low pressure system looks track into the
southeastern Gulf while another slightly weaker look is positioned
in the central Bering. The Gulf low looks to track close to the
Panhandle while the Bering low continues east towards the Alaska
Peninsula. On Sunday evening, a triple point low looks to develop
south of the Alaska Peninsula and track to near Kodiak Island on
Monday. This triple point low becomes the primary low as both the
Bering low and eastern Gulf low congeal into it on Monday. The low
stalls over Kodiak Island Monday night, then moves into the Gulf
Tuesday and dissipates by Wednesday morning.

Scattered snow showers look to continue across the Bering,
Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday as cold air
continues to stream in around the Bering low. There is a 40 to 60
percent chance these snow showers expand across the rest of
Southwest Alaska Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, otherwise
most of Southwest looks to remain dry early next week as
precipitation stays offshore. Precipitation looks to taper off for
Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon as the
low moves into the Gulf. For Southcentral, warmer air streams in
from the northern Pacific ahead of the triple point low. This will
lead to high chances of rain along the northern Gulf Coast and
lower elevations of Kodiak Island through Tuesday. For the
western Kenai, Anchorage, and places further inland, chances for
precipitation are lower. Additionally, cooler air looks to remain
in place further inland as well. With this cooler air, confidence
is low for what type of precipitation will fall for the western
Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat-Su Sunday-Tuesday as conditions look
to favor more of a rain/snow mix. With even colder temperatures
in the Upper Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin, any precip
that manages to move over those locations through the middle of
next week will be snow.

The strongest low looks to impact the western Aleutians and
Bering as it moves out of the northwest Pacific starting Monday
afternoon. Confidence is high that this low deepens to at least
960 mb by Wednesday and has strong winds around it as it moves
across the Bering. Precipitation will likely be a rain/snow mix
on the east side of the low and mostly snow on the west side of
the low. Confidence is still low with the exact track of the low
as, by Wednesday morning, models have it positioned somewhere
between the eastern Aleutians and Saint Matthew Island. Where the
low tracks will also have an effect on potential hazards the low
brings. A more southern track has the strongest winds moving
through the Aleutian Chain, while a more northern track raises
concerns for potential coastal flooding along the Southwest Coast
Tuesday into Wednesday. Positioning of this low should become
more clear in the coming days.

- PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light southeast flow aloft continues for much of today.
Any leftover freezing rain/freezing sprinkles will taper off this
morning as the atmospheric column cools and switches precipitation
over to snow showers later this morning. Ceilings may drop to
MVFR this morning, but should not drop to IFR due to the southeast
flow. Surface flow becomes northerly for Friday morning at the
end of the TAF period with conditions solidly returning to VFR
with drier air moving in.

&&


$$