Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

442
FXAK68 PAFC 150134
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKST Sat Nov 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A frontal system is still on track to bring moderate to heavy snow
followed by a wintry mix to Prince William Sound, Anchorage/Eagle
River, and the Kenai Peninsula this afternoon through early
Monday. Snow is expected to be the primary precipitation type
through Sunday night, though areas along Prince William Sound,
such as Portage and Whittier, and coastal areas of the eastern
Kenai Peninsula will transition to rain/snow or all rain by late
Sunday afternoon. Freezing rain remains a possibility for areas
along the western Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Sunday night as
the warmer air aloft reaches Cook Inlet. Uncertainty remains in
how much temperatures along the Seward Highway from Turnagain Pass
to Primrose warm as the warmer air aloft moves in. As such, there
is a low to medium chance (30-40%) that some areas along the road
see freezing rain late Sunday night before a changeover to rain
sometime Monday morning. See current Winter Weather Advisories for
additional details.

By Monday morning, uncertainty grows regarding whether this system
lingers over the southern Kenai Peninsula or begins to lift back
northward. Currently, the likely (60-70%) scenario is for
precipitation to lift back to the north as light wintry mix,
based on most guidance. The GFS is the one model stalling the
front farther south.

KM/TM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A low is currently moving through the Bering, allowing for small
craft winds across the Aleutians. Its front is bringing rain/snow
to the Pribilof Islands and Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula. The low slowly drifts southeastward through Monday,
turning winds southerly and bringing cold air advection. This cold
air advection and northerly flow will allow for gusty gap winds
out of bays and passes in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula.

By Monday afternoon, a large, strong low pressure system will
move in from the west. This low brings very strong storm force and
potentially hurricane force winds to the Shemya and Adak region by
Monday night into Tuesday morning. The low`s front will push
eastward and bring storm force winds to the Pribilof Islands by
late Tuesday morning. As the day progresses, the low moves
further northeastward into the Bering and brings gale to storm
force winds to most of the Aleutians. Due to the threat of gusty
winds, a High Wind Watch has been issued for Shemya, Adak and
Atka, and the Pribilof Islands starting early Tuesday morning/late
Monday night and lasting through Tuesday afternoon. The low`s
front reaches the Southwest Mainland at this time as well,
bringing southeast gale force winds to the coastline. These winds
are not a favorable direction for coastal flooding in the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast, but elevated water levels may be possible.
Precipitation will likely begin as snowfall for Southwest Alaska
Tuesday afternoon when the front pushes onshore. Southerly flow
will bring warmer air into the area, transitioning snowfall to
rain/snow or rain by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The model guidance suggests an active pattern across southern
Alaska through the extended period, with a series of strong North
Pacific lows and associated upper-level trough influencing the
region.

A broad upper-level trough remains positioned over the Bering Sea
and western Alaska Wednesday, while strong surface low tracks
across the North Pacific. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue
to transport moisture toward southern Alaska, maintaining
opportunities for precipitation across coastal areas and the
higher terrain. Snow may be favored inland and at higher
elevations, with precipitation type along the coast dependent on
temperatures and the extent of warmer air moving northward.

By Thursday, guidance indicates continued troughing over western
Alaska, with additional shortwave energy rotating through the
broader circulation. This will maintain an unsettled pattern,
with periods of precipitation possible as disturbances move
across the region. The placement and strength of individual
shortwaves will determine where the more organized precipitation
develops.

Heading into Friday and Saturday, the models suggest another
strong low developing over the North Pacific and tracking toward
the Gulf of Alaska. This system could bring another round of
precipitation and gusty winds to portions of Southcentral,
particularly along the Gulf Coast. Snow is favored across inland
locations and higher elevations, while coastal locations could see
a mix of rain and snow depending on the track of the low and
associated warm air advection.

Forecast confidence decreases toward the end of the period as
guidance differs on the placement, timing, and intensity of the
approaching low. These difference will have implications for
precipitation amounts, snow levels, and wind speeds across
Southcentral.

-LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds will persist through today and
tonight. Fog and low stratus from earlier today has largely
dissipated, with conditions likely (>70% chance) to remain VFR
through early evening.

Tonight however, a weather system will approach from the east.
The forecast remains on track with snow spilling into Anchorage
by Sunday morning. Expect MVFR conditions Sunday morning with IFR
possible within bursts of heavier snow. While there is moderate
confidence for the onset of snow, there is low confidence in
determining the time periods for the heaviest snow rates/intensity
and for when the snow should taper off Sunday night. As warm air
steadily moves in for the latter half of Sunday, there is a 10
percent chance that any lingering snow late Sunday night will
transition to rain and potentially freeze on untreated surfaces.

&&


$$