Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXAK68 PAFC 220025
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKDT Thu May 21 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Light rain showers will persist across Southcentral through the
end of the week, with the exception of the northern Copper River
Basin, which will remain mostly dry. Southerly gap winds are
expected to recur on Friday for Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm, and the
Copper River Valley. Conditions overnight may become drier for
Anchorage, the western Kenai peninsula, and the Mat Valley, though
rain showers are expected to return on Friday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

An occluded low pressure system off the coast of Southwest Alaska
continues the unsettled and showery pattern across the region.
Gusty westerly winds across the Eastern Aleutians and southern
Alaska Peninsula. The low will slowly approach the coast and will
stall out south of Nunivak Island tonight. This will allow for
continued rain showers over the mainland over the weekend. Also,
gap winds will decrease in response to movement of the low.
Meanwhile, weak flow will set up over the Bering, which means
weaker winds and lower precipitation chances will prevail through
the weekend. On Sunday, a strong low will move south of the
Aleutians, causing gale force winds, potentially storm force
gusts, and precipitation to the Adak area. The low will rise into
the Bering by Monday, likely bringing gusty winds and
precipitation to the rest of the Aleutians. By Saturday afternoon
and beyond for inland areas of Southwest, convective shower and/or
isolated thunderstorm potential will increase again given the
breakdown of stratiform cloud cover in the area.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Minimal changes in the long term forecast as the current pattern
of broad upper level troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf
continues to remain in place. Several shortwaves rotating around
the upper low across the western Bering, North Pacific, and into
the Gulf will continue to support the active pattern. The upper
longwave trough slowly begins to shift to the east over the
Mainland and Gulf by mid to late next week.

By Monday morning, the biggest focus will continue to be on the
strong system lifting north out of the North Pacific and reaching
the Aleutian Chain. Deterministic models have this low peaking in
strength around the time it reaches the central and eastern
Aleutians, with strong and gusty winds expected across the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Sunday into Tuesday.

This system begins its weakening trend and continues its track
into Bristol Bay early next week before pivoting into the Gulf by
the middle of the week. Gusty southeasterly winds along the front
preceding the low can be expected across Southwest Alaska and the
western Gulf Monday into Tuesday. Precipitation will accompany the
gusty winds as it overspreads much of the southern Mainland, with
heavy precipitation expected along upslope areas of the Kuskokwim
Mountains and along the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western
Prince William Sound.

By mid to late next week, the longwave trough axis shifts east
from the Bering into the Gulf, with low pressure lingering in the
Gulf and unsettled conditions for the southern Mainland through
the remainder of the forecast period.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will prevail through late tonight along with
isolated showers in the vicinity of the terminal. Winds this
afternoon will be mainly from the southeast and gusty, with gusts
approaching 35 mph at times. However, there may be times through
mid afternoon that the southeasterly wind diminished and becomes
light and variable, result in periods of LLWS as winds aloft
remain southeasterly.

Scattered showers are possible overnight into early to mid morning
Friday with ceilings falling to MVFR. Although ceilings are
expected to lift back to VFR, and eventually to around 5,000 ft,
scattered showers will remain around the terminal through Friday
evening. Southeasterly winds will diminish overnight into Friday
morning, will once again increase by late Friday morning...albeit
not to the magnitude expected this afternoon and evening.

-TM

&&


$$