Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

871
FXAK68 PAFC 090049
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
449 PM AKDT Sat Aug 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

An upper level high is centered over southern Cook Inlet leading
to generally benign weather. Multiple stable layers associated
with the ridge has led to a hodgepodge of clouds across
Southcentral and the Gulf of AK. Low clouds and fog are focused
over the northern Gulf into Prince William Sound. Fog and stratus
over the Inlet this morning has burned off but is likely to return
tomorrow morning.

Amplification of the upper level flow over the Sea of Okhotsk and
far western Bering today will cause a low and trough over the
northern Bering to dig southward across the central bering
overnight. This in turn will cause the upper high over the
eastern Bering to shift eastward and amplify directly over
southern AK. Strong subsidence with the ridge combined with deep
(but weak) northerly flow will lead to abundant increase sunshine
and warm/dry conditions across most of Southcentral and Kodiak
Island this weekend. The threat of low clouds and fog will persist
across the Gulf waters and Southcentral coastal areas. As is
typical, expect a diurnal cycle of increased clouds and fog
overnight through the morning hours, burning off each afternoon.
Persistent northeast flow aloft for Kodiak will eventually bring
in fog from the Gulf, with arrival time most likely late Sunday or
Sunday night.

Weak short-waves riding over top of the ridge will increasingly
cross the northern to eastern Copper River Basin as the upper flow
amplifies. This will bring isolated to scattered afternoon/evening
convection to the Alaska Range, Tok Cutoff and Wrangell Mountains
areas. Models diverge a bit with the upper level pattern on
Monday, with some solutions retrograding the ridge westward as
short-waves dive southward across eastern AK mainland/ALCAN border
area. This could lead to an uptick in afternoon/evening showers,
but right now it looks like most areas will remain warm and dry.

-SEB/CJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday night)...

Key Messages:

* Areas of fog, dense at times, in and along the Bering Sea
  through early next week.

* Temperatures trend warmer across Southwest Alaska and peak
  Monday and Tuesday. Expect daytime highs in the 70s for all but
  the immediate coast, with highs approaching the 80s for
  Kuskokwim Valley.

Discussion:

Few major changes to the forecast. The main features to watch are
an upper low currently nearing Saint Matthew Island, and an upper
high centered over Kenai Peninsula and Kodiak Island. As the low
sags southwards across the Bering Sea through Monday afternoon,
expect areas of light to moderate rain, and sustained winds up to
25-30 kt. Fog and low stratus will likely linger, and remains the
most challenging aspect of the forecast. After the low departs
southwards for the latter half of Monday, higher pressure will
build in across the eastern Bering. For the western Bering, a weak
front moves in Monday morning, followed by a strengthening low
pressure system by Monday evening. There remain some timing and
positional differences with this incoming low, especially as
models struggle to represent how it develops as it approaches the
central Bering.

For Southwest Alaska, the main focus remains on warmer
temperatures under the influence of the ridge. Not much has really
changed with the forecast; continue to expect highs in the mid
70s to low 80s for all but the immediate coast. While this may be
hazardous to people sensitive to heat, most people have likely
acclimated to warmer temperatures, especially given the warmer
spell late last month. Still, it`s a good idea to drink plenty of
water, close curtains during the day and open windows at night,
and stay tuned to signs of heat stress in yourself and others. One
thing to watch for regarding the temperature forecast will be how
long it takes for clouds and fog to burn off tomorrow. If skies
take longer to clear, this could limit the duration of daytime
heating and keep max temperatures lower than currently forecast.
This would primarily be an issue for communities along Bristol Bay
and Kuskokwim Delta.

The other thing to watch will be the potential for showers
(perhaps even strong enough to squeeze out a few lightning
strikes) to develop in the afternoons. There looks to be enough
surface- based instability to support this, especially along the
slopes of area mountains. However, overall conditions are not
supportive of strong convection or of thunderstorms: subsidence
under the ridge will likely suppress the growth of convection,
there is a distinct lack of strong upper level forcing, and low-
level winds will likely be too weak to produce longer-lived and
more organized storms. As such, while chance of lightning is non-
zero, it looks to be very, very low for the coming days.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A Gulf low is set to bring rain and wind for the Alaska
Peninsula, Kodiak Island, and parts of Southcentral Wednesday
through Thursday. There is higher confidence (50%) of reaching
significant rainfall thresholds in the Alaska Peninsula, with
lower confidence in Southcentral. This is due to a blocking
pattern that is in place from a ridge over the Alaska Panhandle. A
stronger or further west ridge would prevent additional moisture
from reaching Southcentral. Showers are expected to reach
Southwest from the Gulf low.

The pressure difference from the system and ridge has the
potential to generate winds sustained at 40 mph, especially in the
Shelikof Strait. The southern tip of Kenai Peninsula also has the
chance (lower confidence) to see hazardous winds.

The Gulf low weakens and continues to generate showers for
Southcentral, Southwest, and Alaska Peninsula Friday through
Saturday. Despite the precipitation, Southcentral will see above
average temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday from the
ridge. Western Southcentral has the best chance of seeing breakage
of clouds.

A Bering low will bring wind and rain through Friday from Shemya
to Atka. There is significant model disagreement of the track on
this low. The GFS has it continuing to track down the Aleutians
until Sand Point Saturday night versus the Euro where it has it
gone to the North Pacific. Ensemble models agree more with the GFS
at this time.

-SS

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist though the
evening. Conditions in Cook Inlet will remain favorable for fog
to redevelop tonight, so will need to closely monitor potential
for fog or low stratus to reach the terminal tonight through
Sunday morning.

&&

$$