Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

234
FXAK68 PAFC 020515
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
915 PM AKDT Mon Jun 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Thursday afternoon)...

Few changes since the previous forecast. Wetter and windier
weather today will trend warmer and drier for Tuesday, Wednesday,
and Thursday, bringing us the warmest days of the year so far.
Several products remain in effect:
* Red Flag Warning for Palmer, Butte, and Knik River Valley /
  Through 8 PM tonight
* Wind Advisory for Kodiak Island / Through 11 PM tonight
* Flood Watch for Kodiak Island / Through Wednesday morning

The low bringing unseasonably wet and windy weather to Kodiak
Island looks fairly on track. Expect the worst conditions this
evening, with gradual improvements from tonight through tomorrow.
Rain amounts have trended a tad lower as the front looks to pivot
southwards and away from Kodiak Island more quickly than initially
forecast. As such, rain and flooding concerns may come to an end
for Kodiak Island by Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning.

As for the Southcentral Mainland, the big story continues to a
rapid warm-up as a ridge builds in over Southcentral. Temperatures
by Wednesday could be as much as 10 degrees warmer than they are
today. This, in combination with sunny to mostly sunny skies,
could be a bit of an adjustment given our rather cold May. As
such, be vigilant about hydration, sunscreen, and other forms of
heat safety if you`ll be outside enjoying the sun. While
daytime highs will be elevated for 2-3 days, clearer skies will
allow temperatures to recover nicely overnight. As such, this
spell of warmer weather is unlikely to cause prolonged heat
stress.

-KC

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

  1) A Special Weather Statement for strong gusty winds
for the northern Bristol Bay coast remains in place through
Tuesday morning.

 2) Dry and warm conditions are expected through mid-week for the
Kuskokwim Valley.


DISCUSSION:

The front attached to the 990 mb low in the North Pacific just
south of the Alaska Peninsula will continue to bring rain and
strong winds to the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay coast
through tomorrow morning. Northeast wind gusts through 4:00pm
range from 40 mph to 50 mph with gusts to 55 mph. As the front
remains aligned northeast to southwest, northeasterly winds will
increase along the coast ranging from 45 to 55 mph into this
evening; strongest coming out of the Shelikof Strait. Overnight,
the winds will turn more easterly and weaken. Steady rain
continues with areas along the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay
coast recording precipitation amounts ranging from a trace to
0.30" through 4:00pm. Rain will continue into late this evening
as the front crosses into the Bering Sea with 48 hour total
amounts ranging from 2.00 to 3.00 inches. The North Pacific low
weakens and drifts into the Gulf of Alaska resulting in northerly
winds, drying conditions and temperatures in the upper 60s / lower
70s by mid- week.

A ridge from the building high in the Bering Sea will move over
the Interior Kuskokwim Valley through mid-week. This will result
in temperatures continuing to rise through Wednesday. Surface
observations across the area show temperatures in the lower 60s as
of 4:00pm today; a 24 hour temperature change of 5 to 10 degrees
from Aniak to Sleetmute. Lighter winds and lower relative
humidities will accompany these rising temperatures through mid-
week. Forecaster experience and pattern recognition point toward
relative humidities ranging from 25% to 35% and northeast to
northerly winds in the 5 to 10 mph range tomorrow and Wednesday.
Mid-week, this ridge will breakdown causing a return to cooler
temperatures.

-DJ

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Looking ahead to the weekend and into early next week, a more
unsettled pattern is expected to re-emerge, with cooler
temperatures and increased chances for precipitation for most of
the state. By Friday, high pressure over the interior will begin
to break down as an upper-level Arctic low sends a series of
shortwave troughs into the mainland. These troughs will continue
dig further and further south, gradually increasing cloud cover
and bringing temperatures closer to seasonal norms.

Simultaneously, another North Pacific low is expected to develop
to the south of the Central Aleutians by Saturday and continue
through the Gulf on Sunday and into Monday. However, there
remains quite a bit of model spread regarding the track/intensity
of this system. The GFS has the low strengthening significantly
and remaining close to the coast, which would bring more
widespread impacts the the AKPen and Southcentral. However, this
solution seems to be an outlier, with most other models keeping
the low weaker and farther south. Regardless, the warm, dry
weather in the short-term appears to be transient, so enjoy it
while it lasts!

-CW

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. The Turnagain wind has moved
over the Terminal and will persist through late this evening. High
pressure building in tomorrow will lead to the development of an
afternoon sea breeze and remove potential of Turnagain winds for
the foreseeable future.


&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

A coastal ridge of high pressure is combining with the thermal low
inland to produce gusty, dry and warm conditions for the Matanuska
Valley, mainly near the Knik River Valley and Palmer. A Red Flag
Warning is out until 8pm AKDT this evening (Monday) for these
areas for Hot, Dry and Windy conditions. Looking ahead, high
pressure and by far the warmest temperatures of the year are
expected across Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Tuesday through
Thursday. Highs in the mid-to-upper 70s are expected across many
areas with low (20-30%) RH values as well. Southwest will see
these conditions Tuesday and Wednesday while Southcentral will see
them Wednesday and Thursday. Some wind is likely across Southwest
Tuesday and Wednesday which may bring Red Flag weather
conditions; however, any future warnings issued for these
Southwest areas (mainly inland areas along the Kuskokwim River
from Sleetmute east) will be contingent on fuel conditions
determined by AICC. Some northerly winds through the Alaska Range
and into the Susitna Valley may develop Wednesday and Thursday,
but any warnings will be contingent on fuel conditions determined
by AICC. Winds are also a little uncertain as to how far south
they will get into the Susitna Valley.


&&


$$