Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

423
FXAK68 PAFC 041411
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
611 AM AKDT Sun Oct 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday Night)...

Satellite imagery from early this morning shows the low in the
Gulf very close to Middleton Island. This low has tracked farther
east than expected which has some important impact on the weather,
especially in the Copper River Basin. With cold air entrenched in
the Basin, the moisture associated with the front ahead of this
low was able to overrun the cold surface air and bring in several
inches of snowfall to much of the Copper Basin as well as
Thompson Pass. This prompted Winter Weather Advisories last
evening through this morning in these areas. As this low tracks
northward and weakens, the snow in the Copper Basin should taper
off and then remaining precipitation should turn to rain by
afternoon as temperatures warm when the winds increase from the
south in response to the low passage.

For the Cook Inlet region, temperatures have been warmer with
precipitation at road level all in the form of rain. This will
continue as the low tracks across the area and temperatures
increase with the warmer air moving in.

As this low moves inland and dissipates though tonight, another
low in the Bering Sea will track over Kodiak Island Monday. This
low will weaken as it slowly moves across the Gulf through Tuesday
night. This will keep warm and moist air moving into Southcentral
at the surface, but a little cooler air aloft. This is a good set
up for showers and widespread showers activity is anticipated for
much of Southcentral for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will
have warmed enough by then that all precipitation for the road
system and lower elevations is expected to be rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A 973 mb Bering low continues to make its way across the
Aleutians. An elongated ridge will keep most of the clouds from
building in Southwest and Alaska Peninsula, while a few high level
clouds are making it over the Alaska Peninsula from outer bands
of a Gulf low. A push of stronger winds along the southern side of
the low center has moved over Adak/Atka overnight, and will bring
westerly gales with gusts up to 50 kts expected near Unalaska
until 10 pm tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for
Unalaska at this time, for westerly wind gusts reaching 50 mph in
town. Attached to the low, a front moving into Southwest Alaska
this morning will spread a fairly quick shot of slightly gusty
southeasterly winds and rainfall to the coast, spreading inland
through the day and tonight.

In addition to winds, widespread showers are forecast over the
eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and much of the southern Bering
as the low and front push east through today. Isolated
thunderstorms will be possible along the southeastern side of the
low center as it tracks along the eastern Aleutians this morning.

Following the passage of the low, conditions will clear and winds
will steadily calm. By Monday, high pressure moves into the
Bering, causing winds to diminish region-wide and precipitation
to clear out over Southwest Alaska as the low pressure shifts
completely into the Gulf of Alaska. Broad northerly flow
establishes across the Bering and Aleutian Chain. A ridge begins
to build over the Aleutians west of Unalaska Tuesday, bringing low
stratus clouds and fog. The next system to bring active weather
to the Bering will be a fairly potent Pacific low pushing a front
into the Western Bering by late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.

-CL

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The active pattern continues across Southern Alaska, the Bering
Sea, and Aleutians through the long term. A strong North Pacific
low approaching the western Aleutians Tuesday will be the primary
focus heading into the period. Winds and precipitation begin to
increase across the western Aleutians Tuesday into Tuesday night
before spreading farther east across the Aleutians and Bering
Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence remains moderate to high (70
to 80 percent) that this system will impact the region, but lower
confidence (30 to 40 percent) in the exact track and magnitude of
the strongest winds. Small changes in the low track will
determine where the strongest winds and heaviest precipitation
occur.

Across the Aleutians and Bering, winds and precipitation increase
Wednesday as the low deepens and its front progress eastward.
Widespread precipitation and strong winds are expected to expand
across the Aleutian Chain and Bering through Thursday. The low is
then expected to gradually weaken as it moves farther into the
Bering Friday into Saturday, though periods of gusty winds and
precipitation will likely persist across portions of the region.

For Southwest Alaska, relatively quieter conditions Wednesday will
give way to increasing winds and precipitation as the front
approaches from the west Wednesday night into Thursday.
Precipitation is expected to spread into the Alaska Peninsula and
Southwest Alaska Thursday into Friday. Coastal impacts will also
be monitored, particularly along the Southwest Alaska coast,
where strong and persistent onshore flow could result in elevated
water levels and potential coastal flooding. Confidence remains
moderate (50 to 60 percent) in the overall evolution of the
system, but lower (30 to 40 percent)in the magnitude and location
of any coastal impacts given continued uncertainty in the exact
low track.

Across Southcentral, the Gulf low responsible for the early-week
wet pattern gradually shifts east Wednesday into Thursday.
Steadier precipitation along the north Gulf coast and Prince
William Sound will transition toward showers, with more scattered
activity farther inland. Attention then turns west as the Bering
system and associated front approach late in the week. Confidence
is moderate (50 to 60 percent) that moisture reaches Kodiak Island
eventually Kenai Peninsula and Southcentral Friday into Saturday,
though confidence remains lower (30 to 40 percent) in the timing
and precipitation amounts as uncertainty in the parent low track
persists.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Rain is expected to fill in this morning which will cause
ceilings to lower to MVFR, becoming increasingly likely as the
day progresses. As the low pressure lifts north of the area this
evening, winds are expected to shift from north to southeast for
overnight. There remains a question as to whether the Turnagain
Arm component of the winds (the strongest winds) will reach the
terminal or remain south of the airport. At this time it looks
more likely that the southeast winds at the airport will remain
around 10 kts overnight, though there is always a chance (20 to 30
percent) that there will be a short- lived period of stronger
gusts during the evening hours.

&&

$$