Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

917
FXAK68 PAFC 030520
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
920 PM AKDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday evening evening)...

Clouds have moved to the north Gulf Coast and eastern Kenai Coast
today. Cloudy conditions will continue to be the case across the
coast through the rest of the short-term; a change from the clear
conditions we have been seeing the last few days.

A broad low pressure system continues eastward towards the
southeast Gulf late tonight into Friday morning. Rain/snow mix is
likely for portions of Kodiak Island this evening, especially
northern portions of the island. Expect little snow accumulation
from this system. Initially, this system will not affect the rest
of Southcentral...yet.

The weather pattern becomes more complex and uncertain as we head
into the weekend. The broad surface low that will have brought
precipitation to Kodiak Island tonight will tighten up as it
weakens into Saturday. There is good confidence that the low lifts
northward and eventually northeastward along the upper Panhandle
Friday evening into Saturday morning. Guidance then diverges on
where this low will go starting Saturday. The GFS is currently the
quickest with the progression and brings precipitation into
Cordova by late Saturday morning, whereas other guidance has the
low continuing to linger along the upper Panhandle between Yakutat
and Cordova.

Needless to say, despite uncertainty, a pattern change continues
to be underway. Expect rain/snow mix along the north Gulf Coast
from Cordova to Whittier and along the Kenai Peninsula this
weekend. As temperatures warm during the day, expect
preciptiation-type to be predominantly rain with snow and or
rain/snow mix during the late nights and early mornings. Most
precipitation this weekend should remain mostly confined to the
coast. Some could make it over the Kenai Mountains into the
Western Kenai Peninsula where a light accumulation of snow is
possible from Homer to Kenai on Saturday. Stay tuned to the
forecast for updates to the low track for this weekend and updates
to rain and snow totals.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...


A weak, southward-moving trough out of the northern Interior has
become nearly stationary over Southwest Alaska today, increasing
cloud cover and bringing light, scattered snow showers to the
Kuskokwim Delta. This pattern is expected to continue through
Sunday as several shortwaves rotate around the trough.

A compact low located just east of Attu, and its front, continue
eastward over the Western Aleutians this afternoon. Its front has
brought light rain to Shemya and is expected to bring brief rain
and snow showers as far east as Adak overnight before elongating
and dissipating early Friday morning. The front of a more robust
Kamchatka low sweeps across the western island chain Saturday
morning. With a fetch extending south into the North Pacific, and
above freezing temperatures at the 850 mb level, light to
moderate rain is expected from this front. Most models indicate
that the strongest portion of the front will reach Adak and Atka
by Sunday morning, with the outlier showing rain as far east as
Nikolski. This front will be reinforced by additional lows which
move into the region and help the front reach the Alaska mainland
in the first half of next week.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Weakening low pressure in the Gulf will keep increased cloud
cover for Southcentral and precipitation chances for the Gulf
coast and portions of Cook Inlet at the start of the long term
forecast period. High pressure over the eastern Bering Sea,
resulting in clear skies for some and persistent marine stratus
deck for others, will nudge east by Monday morning, allowing for
a low pressure system to send a front across the Aleutians and
into the Alaska Peninsula on Monday. A pattern shift towards
wetter and cloudier looks likely by mid-week as upper level
shortwaves rotate in from the North Pacific. Exact timing is
uncertain, but models have trended towards a solution where most
of Alaska sees chances for light to moderate precipitation as
troughing moves over the state Tuesday through Thursday.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$