Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

858
FXAK68 PAFC 040122
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 PM AKDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the Hillside
  until 10AM Tuesday. 40 to 50 mph gusts are expected for
  west/south Anchorage, while the Seward Highway near the
  Turnagain Arm and the Hillside will see gusts up to 60 mph.

* Flood Watch remains in effect for Central/Western Susitna Valley
  through Friday morning, due to heavy rainfall. Flood watches
  have been CANCELED for the rest of the Susitna Valley and the
  Matanuska Valley.

* Flood Watch for Seward and the eastern Kenai Peninsula has been
  CANCELED.


Discussion:

Current radar returns and observations suggest the system that
has been advertised has/will way underperform in terms of rainfall
for some areas, and to a lesser extent, wind. It has been quite a
dramatic shift just looking real time satellite imagery and
observations versus what model guidance has been suggesting over
the last 24 to 48 hours. For rainfall, these discrepancies have
been significant enough to cancel the Flood Watch that was in
effect for Seward, and the Flood Watch for the Susitna Valley has
been trimmed back to only include the Central and Western portions
of the Valley. The locations still under a Flood Watch are
Petersville, Cache Creek, Talkeetna, and communities along the
Yentna and Skwentna Rivers through Friday morning.

The drastic changes in the near term forecast mostly stem from
the ridge situated across the eastern Gulf being stubborn to gain
momentum. This has stalled the incoming front much more to the
west than the overall thinking and model consensus yesterday. This
is actually great news, particularly for Seward/Resurrection Bay,
and the Flood Watch for this area has been canceled. Seward`s
wind direction has also shifted since the front/atmospheric river
stalled prematurely. Rather than a due south wind, a south-
southwest wind they are observing instead is much less conducive
for heavy rainfall amounts. Looking at the radar, the axis of
rainfall is situated along a corridor from the central part of the
Cook Inlet to Talkeetna. The Anchorage Bowl has been mostly dry
for the better part of the day due to southeasterly downsloping,
though the current radar suggest rain showers will continue fill
in over the course of the afternoon as moisture overspreads the
area from west to east. The best chance of seeing periods of
moderate rainfall for Anchorage will be this evening and overnight
as the ridge attempts to erode and the axis of moisture shifts
eastward. That said, many areas around Anchorage will be lucky to
see much more than 0.3 inches of rainfall.

Wind wise, things remain mostly on track, though the Anchorage
Hillside has seen winds marginally underperform today.
Nevertheless, the overall message for wind potential remains the
same, and the Wind Advisory remains in effect through 10AM Tuesday
for Anchorage and the Hillside, with an emphasis on west/south
Anchorage, along the Seward Highway near the Turnagain Arm, and
for the Hillside. Coastal ridging is still in place, which is
continuing the Turnagain Arm wind, Knik Wind, and Copper River
winds. The main difference today is that due to the front stalling
much farther west than expected, the east to west gradient is not
quite as strong as expected. Looking ahead to Tuesday afternoon,
the latest model guidance has also been to bring rainfall out of
much of the area more quickly, with the exception for coastal
areas such as the southern/eastern Kenai Peninsula. The front, as
of now, is expected to venture eastward into the Gulf, but will
likely weaken/shear apart as it further approaches the ridge,
which will gradually diminish any remaining rain chances through
mid week.


-AM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled weather is expected to continue for Southwest Alaska over
the next 24 hours as a relatively strong low pressure system,
analyzed near 989mb near St. Lawrence Island, drives strong winds,
large waves, and relatively heavy precipitation into the Kuskokwim
and Bristol Bay regions. Meanwhile, broad and breezy westerly flow
prevails across much of the southern Bering, including through the
Aleutian chain.

Winds across most areas will weaken later this afternoon. Small-
craft winds will continue across the northern Bering and western
Kuskokwim Delta coast as a secondary shortwave rotates around the
low.

The low continues to occlude and drift near Saint Lawrence Island
before continuing to the Seward Peninsula by Wednesday morning.
This will continue to draw waves of precipitation across Southwest
Alaska and the northern AKPen through Wednesday. Additional
rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is expected through Wednesday
afternoon, with locally higher amounts possible for higher
terrain, particularly along the western Alaska Range/Kuskokwim
Valley, and between Kipnuk and Dillingham. For Umnak Island,
Unalaska, and the southern AKPen, less than half an inch of rain
is expected through Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

To start out the longer term period, an upper-level low will
remain in place across interior Alaska on Friday. This low moves
off to the east across Yukon, Canada by Saturday. Aside from some
scattered showers at times across the Southern Mainland, expect
mostly quiet weather for Friday and Saturday.

The long-term forecast becomes more uncertain for Saturday and
Sunday, especially for the Bering and Aleutians. The point of
uncertainty arises with how guidance wants to handle upper-level
energy coming out of Kamchatka. The Canadian and European suites
want to develop this energy more than the GFS. Hence the GFS has a
drier solution across the Aleutian Chain while the European and
Canadian suites are wetter. Also of note, while the Canadian and
European guidance does develop the Kamchatka energy, the resulting
surface low is not expected to be strong at this time.

Across the Southern Mainland for Sunday, like the Bering, there
is some uncertainty in the forecast. The Canadian and European
suites take a shortwave moving out of the Arctic and keep it
confined more to Northern Alaska which would be a drier solution
for the Southern Alaska. The GFS, on the other hand, wants to dig
this shortwave more to south and over Southern Alaska which would
be a wetter solution for both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
for Sunday. For Monday, an upper-level low over interior Alaska
moves south towards Southern Alaska. There does not look to be a
lot of moisture with this system at this time and the likely
outcome for Monday will be that this upper-level system helps to
kick off some diurnally-forced showers across Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will persist
through the TAF period, but should begin to drop off steadily late
tonight through early Tuesday afternoon. Periods of steady to
briefly moderate rain will continue to move over the terminal
through Tuesday morning, but The drying effects from southeast
winds will likely keep ceilings mostly in VFR range, but dips into
MVFR range will be possible overnight tonight into early Tuesday
morning with periods of heavier rainfall.

&&



$$