Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

976
FXAK68 PAFC 030138
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 PM AKDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* New: A Wind Advisory has been issued for Anchorage and the
  Hillside from 8PM this evening to 10AM Tuesday. 40 to 50 mph
  gusts are expected for west/south Anchorage, while the Seward
  Highway near the Turnagain Arm and the Hillside will see gusts
  up to 60 mph.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Copper River Valley
  through this evening.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for the eastern Kenai Peninsula
  from Monday night through Thursday morning, due to heavy rain.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for Susitna and lower Matanuska
  Valleys from Tuesday morning through Friday morning, due to
  heavy rain.

Discussion:

Enjoy one last relatively quiet evening for Southcentral as windy
and rainy conditions return to the region for the start of the
work week. Diving into the details, a broad, occluded, and
anomalously "wet" (high precipitable water values) ~988 mb low
pressure system currently located over the northern Bering is
sending in some upper level clouds over Southcentral this
afternoon. Despite the clouds and the marine layer, temperatures
have warmed today into the low to mid 60s for the Cook Inlet
region, with predominant low 70s for the Matanuska and Susitna
Valleys. The warmest portions of Southcentral today have been
located across the Copper River Basin from Glennallen to McCarthy,
where temperatures have topped out in the mid to upper 70s. Due
to these warm temperatures across the Copper River Basin, and the
fact that the minimum relative humidity values have dipped into
the 30 to 40% range with winds picking up as well, there is a
short lived, low (but non-zero) fire weather concern for this area
before temperatures drop overnight.

Surface pressure analysis depicts a coastal ridge developing and
beginning to nose in from the south and east, which has tightened
local pressure gradients ahead of the low pressure system across
Southcentral through typical gaps (Turnagain Arm, Knik, and Copper
River). First, a southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind has developed
this afternoon from an east to west oriented pressure gradient
from Whittier to Anchorage. Due to a negative pressure gradient
between Anchorage and Homer, this will soon allow winds to start
to bend into the Anchorage Bowl. While winds are just on the
breezy side currently, expect these winds to steadily increase
through tonight with gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range (with higher
gusts to 40 to 50 mph for west/south Anchorage, and up to 60 mph
along the Seward Highway near the Turnagain Arm and with elevation
on the Hillsides) as the coastal ridge strengthens and the
pressure gradient increases further. The Knik Gap wind is on track
to ramp up as well due to the prevailing southeasterly wind
direction. The Copper River Basin is also seeing winds become
breezy this afternoon as the coastal ridge continues to set up
shop, though these south-southeasterly winds are getting an
"assist" from a weak surface low quickly skirting across the
northern most part of the state, which has somewhat enhanced the
north to south pressure gradient across this stretch of
Southcentral for the near term.

Precipitation chances are on track to lag behind the uptick in
gap winds across Southcentral by 8 to 12 hours. Thus, as the
Bering low moves inland across the northwestern portions of
Alaska, moderate rainfall begins to overspread the Susitna Valley
early Monday morning. For Seward, a southerly wind develops Monday
morning as it becomes nestled in between the incoming front/low
and the coastal ridge to the east. Models are trying to initiate
precipitation for Seward and the eastern Kenai Peninsula as early
as Monday morning. For Anchorage, initial downsloping will delay
the arrival of rainfall. While there is some variation in the
model guidance, rain likely begins to fill in for the Anchorage
Bowl from west to east as early as late Monday morning. By Monday
afternoon, due to the close proximity of the strengthening coastal
ridge and the incoming front, gap winds, in particular for the
Turnagain Arm, will most likely peak in intensity.

Looking aloft at 500 mb, the trough associated with the surface
low digs over Southwest Alaska through Tuesday afternoon and
extends as far south as the North Pacific. The trough then takes a
neutral tilt Tuesday morning, giving upper level synoptic support
to enhance rainfall along the southern and eastern coast of the
Kenai Peninsula... in particular for Seward - where we are
monitoring flooding concerns. A stout southerly to south-
southeasterly flow will continue for this area, and will be aimed
towards Seward/Resurrection Bay. The good news for Seward is that
models are trending slightly drier than what has been shown in
previous runs, but 2 to 3 inches of rain is still expected for
this area through late Tuesday. The flood watch for the Susitna
Valley remains on track, with no major changes to the amount of
rainfall expected. With the surface low stalling and becoming
quasi-stationary, the wet pattern continues through the rest of
the week, though gap winds look to decrease heading into mid week
as the attendant front also stalls and begins to slowly dissipate.
Finally, models do show a surface low forming along the front`s
triple point, but confidence as of now is low on how this feature
may impact Southcentral. Stay tuned.

-AM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, a low resides in the northern Bering with its front
over the Kuskokwim Delta. Rainfall has started for the western
portions of Southwest and small-craft to gale force winds extend
from the Kuskokwim Delta through the Rat Islands. Precipitation
will continue to spread across Southwest this evening into Monday
as the front moves eastward. The heaviest precipitation will fall
tonight into tomorrow for the Kuskokwim Delta and western Bristol
Bay. For the rest of Southwest, the heaviest rainfall will occur
tomorrow into Tuesday morning. As the front continues eastward
Monday- Tuesday, portions of the eastern Aleutians and southern
AKPen will receive some rain as well. Being further away from the
low, precipitation will not be as heavy compared to Southwest.

Along and behind the front, southerly to southwesterly small-craft
to gale force winds will persist into tomorrow across the Bering.
The strongest of these winds will be focused near the Kuskokwim
Delta tonight into early tomorrow morning. Sustained winds will
peak at 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph possible. This wind
is oriented perpendicular to the shore. Considering the strength
of the wind and the fetch across the Bering, water levels could
push 1 to 2 feet above normal high tides during this period.
Though winds will not as strong in Bristol Bay (small-craft),
coastal areas could see water levels push up to 1 foot above
normal high tides. Winds begin to weaken Monday afternoon. Small-
craft winds will persist off the Kuskokwim Coast through Tuesday
afternoon. Surge will be monitored through Tuesday afternoon.

The low stalls and begins to occlude near Saint Lawrence Island
Monday morning before continuing to the Seward Peninsula on
Wednesday. This will continue to draw waves of precipitation
across Southwest and the northern AKPen through Wednesday.
Rainfall accumulation of 1 to 2 inches are expected through
Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts (2 to 3 inches)
possible around Togiak and for higher terrain, particularly along
the western Alaska Range/Kuskokwim Valley. Most of this will fall
by Tuesday afternoon, with mostly scattered light showers expected
Tuesday into Wednesday. For the southern AKPen and central to
eastern Aleutian Chain, less than half an inch of rain is expected
through Wednesday. With the low beginning to occlude on Monday,
winds slowly weaken across the Bering. Southwesterly to westerly
small-craft winds will persist north and west of the Pribilofs
through Tuesday afternoon.

PA

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A more stagnant pattern is on the way for late this week. An
upper level low will remain nearly stationary over Norton
Sound/Western Alaska through Friday. By Saturday, an Arctic upper
low dives south and interacts with this Western Alaska low, after
which model disagreement over this interaction leads to lower
forecast confidence through the weekend. Generally, in the absence
of strong surface features, expect lighter winds and rain showers
over the Southern Mainland, with more robust showers under the
upper low in Southwest Alaska. Ridging over the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands will likely lead to areas of clouds and fog.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will likely prevail through this evening.
However, there is a slight chance for lingering patches of lower
clouds to move over the terminal, bringing occasionally lower
ceilings to IFR or MVFR.

Otherwise, a shift from light northwesterly winds to gusty
southeasterly winds later this evening, with gusts as high as 30
to 35 kt tonight through much of tomorrow. Then, rain and lower
ceilings will move into the terminal Monday afternoon/evening
between about 21Z-06Z. The timing of rainfall and when ceilings
will drop to MVFR is uncertain; with the strong southeasterly
winds mixing in drier air, this could delay the onset of rain and
lower ceilings.

&&


$$