Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

765
FXAK68 PAFC 311343
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
543 AM AKDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday evening)...


An upper-level ridge axis extending from the Alaska Peninsula to
Fairbanks will allow summer-like conditions to persist across
Southcentral through the weekend. Satellite imagery this morning
shows lingering high clouds over the Copper River Basin continuing
to diminish while farther west, there is little to no cloud cover.
It`s a different story over the northern Gulf, especially near
Cordova and Hitchinbrook Entrance, and southwest of Kodiak Island
where areas of low stratus and fog linger underneath the ridge.

With high pressure entrenched over the region, the next two to
three days will look much like yesterday with highs in the 70s to
perhaps even 80 degrees in all of the warmest spots, such as
Willow, Sterling, and the Copper River Valley. Assuming we
continue to see minimal cloud cover, there will still be quite a
large diurnal range in temperatures each day. Dry, clear and still
conditions will be optimal for rapid radiational cooling each of
the next couple overnights, and lows could dip all the way into
the 40s in many places as a result. The one mode of uncertainty
will be how the marine layer and associated low stratus behaves
over the next few days. Flow moving along the southern Kenai
Peninsula and up Cook Inlet could drag low stratus into places
like Seward, Homer, and Kenai, with around a 40% chance for low
clouds to develop along this corridor on Saturday morning.
Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies and warm afternoon
temperatures to persist through Sunday.

By late Sunday, the outer reaches of the next system and notable
pattern change could begin to encroach on Southcentral in the
form of increasing cloud cover. A much wetter pattern could set in
by early next week with gusty southerly gap winds through typical
locations, so take advantage of the warmth and sun while it
lasts!

-AS/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Friday through Monday)...

A ridge remains over The Alaskan Interior, bringing another day
of partly cloudy skies today with high temperatures reaching the
upper 60s and low 70s for many inland areas, and the potential for
80 degrees in vicinity of Stony River through Saturday. The first
of two low pressure fronts will sweep across the eastern Bering
and reach the western capes Saturday morning. This will weaken the
ridge and nudge it to the east, but ultimately the low will be
deflected back to the south across the Alaska Peninsula Saturday
afternoon.

The second front extends from a low off the Kamchatka
coast, which will models currently project tracking northeast and
near to Saint Lawrence Island. This front sweeps across the
Pribilof Islands Sunday morning and reaches the Southwest coast
by Sunday afternoon. This front will manage to push farther
inland, increasing clouds, cooling temperatures, and rain for
the Southwest mainland. Widespread small craft winds with gusts
up to gale force are expected across the central and eastern
Bering with this event. A strong theta-e ridge will also be
present, but there is lower confidence (20-30%) of marine
lightning with this system, primarily because model guidance
depicts the upper level dynamic forcing is misaligned with the
theta-e ridge. For now, the marine lighting threat is low for
Sunday. High temperatures return to the low 60s to the low 50s for
Monday.



&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

An increasingly active weather pattern is expected through the
long term forecast period as the upper-level pattern becomes more
progressive. An upper low settling into western Alaska early in
the week will maintain broad southwesterly flow across much of the
state, allowing several shortwaves to rotate through the flow and
support periods of rain and unsettled conditions.

On Monday, widespread rain will continue across Southwest Alaska
and the Alaska Peninsula while precipitation gradually expands
into Kodiak Island and Southcentral Alaska. A tightening pressure
gradient around the upper low will also bring breezy to locally
gusty southerly winds to portions of the Alaska Peninsula, Kodiak
Island, and adjacent marine waters. Temperatures across
Southcentral will trend closer to seasonal normals as cloud cover
increases and rainfall becomes more widespread.

By Tuesday, moist southwesterly flow will keep scattered to
widespread showers across much of Southcentral, Kodiak Island, and
Southwest Alaska, with locally steadier rainfall possible along
the Gulf-facing terrain where upslope enhancement develops. While
embedded shortwaves will continue to move through the broader
cyclonic flow, confidence remains high that unsettled weather will
persist through the day.

Wednesday continues the unsettled pattern as the upper low weakens
only slowly while lingering over western Alaska. Additional
disturbances rotating around the circulation will support another
round of showers across much of southern Alaska, though rainfall
coverage and intensity will likely become more scattered compared
to earlier in the week. Breezy conditions may persist across
coastal locations and marine areas as the pressure gradient
remains in place.

By Thursday, guidance suggests the upper low generally shifts
eastward into the Interior while broad troughing remains over much
of mainland Alaska. This will keep cool, showery conditions in
place across Southcentral and Southwest Alaska, though rainfall
may become more intermittent as the strongest forcing begins to
pull away. Model differences increase regarding the exact
evolution and timing of individual shortwaves late in the period,
but confidence remains high that the overall pattern will remain
cooler, unsettled, and periodically wet through the end of the
forecast period.

LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Light and variable wind early
this morning will shift to a west-northwesterly wind between 5 and
10 kt by late morning. These winds will become light and variable
by evening.

&&


$$