Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

358
FXAK68 PAFC 121301
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Wed Aug 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

An upper level ridge remains over the Gulf of Alaska and into the
Copper River Basin today. This ridge will remain largely
stationary the next few days which will allow an upper level wave
to move northward in the clockwise flow around its western
periphery. This wave can already be seen on GOES satellite south
of Kodiak Island early this morning. This upper wave will bring
rain today to Kodiak Island and then head up Cook Inlet. This is
where there is some increased uncertainty: this wave appears to be
moving farther to the east than it was previously, which opens up
the possibility for some rain showers for the western Kenai
Peninsula overnight tonight. As this wave propagates into the
Susitna Valley, there is an increasing chance for some rain
Thursday morning for the Anchorage and MatSu areas.

After this wave passes through, the ridge will reassert itself
over Southcentral for the remainder of the week. The result will
be for partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies over the region with
increasing temperatures for Friday into the weekend for most parts
of Southcentral. The northeastern Copper River Basin will be the
area most likely to see afternoon and evening showers and isolated
thunderstorms the next few days.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

High pressure over Southwest Alaska breaks down on Wednesday as
an area of low pressure lifts out of the North Pacific and over
the Western Alaska Range. With increasing clouds and limited
instability on Wednesday the threat for thunderstorms comes to an
end. Rain chances increase late Wednesday through Thursday with
Thursday looking like a wet day for much of Southwest Alaska.
Meanwhile, a broad upper low and front over the western Bering
will stall just short of the Pribilof Islands this afternoon. Rain
showers will impact the Aleutians from Adak to Atka, but should
go no farther than Nikolski. Showery conditions will overspread
the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula throughout the day on
Wednesday before spilling into much of Southwest Alaska on
Thursday. Gusty winds, mainly at small craft speeds, will exist
across the Western Bering with the broad upper low, and also from
the Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay into the interior out of the
Kamishak Gap. Friday will see an improvement across Southwest
Alaska with decreasing winds and drier conditions as high pressure
tries to resume across the region, though the western Bering will
continue to be under the influence of a broad upper low.

-BL


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

The general pattern going into the weekend will have an upper low
over the central Bering with a ridge over Mainland Alaska. On
Saturday, the upper low begins to move to the eastern Bering and
makes an attempt to push the ridge northeastward into the
Interior/Yukon down through the Alaska Panhandle. Temperatures
across the region will begin to cool as cloud coverage increases
from west to east. For most of Southcentral and the Kuskokwim
Valley, cloud coverage doesn`t increase until Saturday night.
Saturday will continue to be warm for these areas with highs in
the 70s at lower elevations with up to 80 degrees in spots of the
Copper River Basin and Kuskokwim Valley.

A surface low from the North Pacific will cross the eastern
Aleutian Chain Saturday and stall in the eastern Bering through
Tuesday. This low will also send a front eastward through the Gulf
and Southcentral Alaska Sunday into Monday. This will make
conditions conducive for rainfall across the Aleutians, the AKPen,
Southwest Alaska, Kodiak Island, and the Gulf Coast into early
next week. Some rainfall may be heavy, especially for the
Aleutians on Saturday, the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and portions of
Southwest Alaska Sunday into Monday, and the northern Gulf Coast
(particularly the southern Kenai Peninsula) Monday into Tuesday.
Though model agreement is fairly good, there are still slight
differences with the strength of the low and progression of the
low and front. Thus, while confidence is high with which areas
will receive the heaviest rain, confidence is still low on exact
timing and amounts of rainfall into early next week. The other
factor with the low moving through will be the potential for
southeasterly winds accelerating through favorable gaps and bays
of the AKPen (such as Cold Bay) Saturday into Sunday.

As the front progresses eastward Sunday into Monday, light
precipitation will spill over the mountains into the rest of
Southwest and Southcentral and linger into early next week. This
will result in cooler temperatures compared to this week. Though
the ridge is pushed east, it likely stays over the Copper River
Basin on Sunday before being pushed out to the Interior/Yukon.
There is also some model uncertainty on both when and how much
the front breaks the ridge down. The longer the ridge holds on,
the later precipitation will spill over into the Copper River
Basin. The Copper River Basin likely sees at least one additional
day of warm and dry conditions compared to the rest of
Southcentral Alaska. Any potential warm days past Sunday will be
determined by how much the front breaks the ridge down. Details
will become more clear in the coming days.

-PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Fog and low stratus are expected to linger along Cook
Inlet this morning and intermittently push into the vicinity of
the terminal. Ceilings will predominately remain MVFR, but will
occasionally drop to IFR (and possibly even LIFR for a brief
period). Ceilings are expected scatter out by mid afternoon due to
radiational heating, likely causing VFR conditions to return. A
frontal system approaches from the south this evening, causing
more widespread cloud coverage and a slight chance for rain
showers tomorrow morning.

&&


$$