Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

463
FXAK68 PAFC 111416
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKST Sun Jan 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Narrow frontogenetic bands brought upon by the cold upper low to
the west and southeasterly flow over the Chugach continue to
develop and push light to moderate bands of snow into the eastern
Kenai, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys. There will be a slow
movement of these bands to the east today, which will continue the
light snow from the Turnagain Arm north-northwest into Anchorage
and the Mat-Su. General accumulations of 2 to 4 addition inches
are expected from Girdwood to Anchorage and the southern Mat
Valley. Some isolated pockets of up to 6 inches are possible
should the bands continually develop and train over an area.
Upslope combining with the bands will lead to additional
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches for the Susitna Valley. So far,
only one of many weather models indicated these bands would be as
prolific as they have been for the western Kenai. This model, the
GFS, lingers the bands over Anchorage and the Mat-Su through
Monday morning. The forecast has been trended to this solution,
resulting in some additional light accumulation this evening and
possibly into the early morning hours tomorrow.

A period of relative quiet weather will set up Monday as some
clearing leads to a return of cold temperatures after our warm up
to average temperatures yesterday for many of the population
centers. By Tuesday morning, weak inverted troughs associated with
a broad complex low in the north Pacific will pivot north into
the Gulf Coast. This will return light snow to the Prince William
Sound communities by Tuesday morning. These features will continue
to reinforce and interact with lee-side troughing near Seward,
possibly spilling light snow into the greater Cook Inlet areas at
times Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

* A resurgence of cold air will bring bitterly cold conditions and
  wind chills to Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula through
  about Thursday. Cold Weather Advisories and an Extreme Cold
  Warning are in effect.
* Gusty northerly winds and snow showers continue across the
  Aleutian and Pribilof Islands, leading to minor visibility
  reductions in blowing snow.
* Extreme freezing spray continues along the sea ice edge but will
  gradually reduce in severity as winds diminish below gale force.

The biggest change since yesterday`s forecast package has been the
issuance of cold weather products for Southwest Alaska and the
Alaska Peninsula. Several locations have recorded wind chills to
40 below during the evening and overnight hours, including
Quinhagak, Aniak, and Igiugig. There have also been widespread
areas of wind chills in the -30s to -40s. Further south where the
threshold for wind chills is lower, both Chignik and Nelson Lagoon
have hit wind chills of -10. Air temperatures will continue to
drop in the coming days - this, in combination with continued
light winds, means that wind chills likely won`t get much better
than they are now before midweek. There is potential that wind
chills may be a bit lower than what`s currently in the forecast;
models are trending towards lower air temperatures, and forecast
wind speeds may be bumped up as confidence grows with the low
pressure systems swirling around in the North Pacific. As such,
it`s not out of the question that additional zones may be upgraded
from a Cold Weather Advisory to an Extreme Cold Warning.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The extended forecast is marked with a fair bit of uncertainty in
regards to low tracks and intensity. For Southcentral, Wednesday
starts with a front moving inland in the North Gulf. With cold
air in place, precipitation is expected to be in the form of snow.
Gusty winds are also expected, but the strength of these winds is
uncertain. Thursday has a large fetch of moisture rise into the
Gulf of Alaska from the South. Warm air advection will occur as
well as gusty winds. The warmer air means that precipitation types
could possibly change to rain further inland. Again, there is
uncertainty with this event and depending on how the atmospheric
river develops, more or less impacts could be seen. This event may
continue into Friday with more precipitation and winds expected.
Saturday for Southcentral has winds calming down with a potential
for continued precipitation of some kind.

Southwest Alaska for the long term starts off with continued snow
showers in the Bering due to another push of cold air advection.
Weaker shortwaves will allow for some small craft winds in the
Bering as well. Thursday will be similar except for the Southwest
Mainland receiving precipitation from a potential North Pacific
Low. If this occurs, warm air advection may transition snow to
rain. The pattern becomes more active for Southwest Alaska after
this with lows possibly moving into the Bering and causing gusty
winds and precipitation. As before, many of these scenarios are
quite uncertain at this point and details will be made more clear
in the coming days.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...There continues to be some uncertainty with how long snow
will linger through today. In general, expect off and on snow
showers to linger through the morning hours and into the afternoon
hours with MVFR conditions likely when snow showers do make it
over the terminal. IFR visibilities are possible within heavier
snow showers. Conditions look to improve during the evening and
overnight hours with VFR conditions returning. However, southerly
and southwest flow up Cook Inlet will continue and therefore,
ceilings while VFR, could still remain around the 5000 foot mark.
Winds will remain light and out of the north to northeast through
the TAF period.

&&


$$