Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

485
FXAK68 PAFC 090115
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 PM AKDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Current satellite imagery shows a surface front and associated
upper level wave moving into Canada with the axis of an upper
level ridge over the western Alaska Range. Some cloud cover
persists from the Kenai Peninsula through the Susitna Valley,
though this continues to lift and slowly scatter out through this
evening. Fog and lingering low clouds will be a concern again late
tonight through early tomorrow morning (Friday), prior to the
arrival of the next frontal system. Cooler and drier air will help
to scour out some residual moisture; however, with weak winds and
clearing skies helping to aid in radiational cooling, areas prone
to fog (Valdez, Cordova, Glennallen and the lower Susitna Valley)
will have a 60 to 70 percent chance to see some patchy to areas
of fog overnight into early Friday morning.

A front from the Bering/Southwest Alaska enters the Southwestern
Gulf Friday morning and moves into the rest of Southcentral by
Friday evening. Cloud coverage will increase throughout the day as
the front moves in. Rain will reach southern Kodiak Island first
by late Friday morning and work northeastward to Cook Inlet, Kenai
Peninsula, western Susitna Valley and the northern Gulf Coast by
Friday evening. Most of the road system should remain warm enough
for rain. Confidence with precipitation being rain increases as
the weekend progresses as moisture streaming into the region
allows temperatures to remain warmer. However, there is a high
likelihood (70-80 percent) for the higher passes (Broad Pass,
Thompson Pass, Eureka) to see some snow, at least initially when
temperatures are cooler, with light accumulations (2-4 inches)
before a change to a rain/snow mix or to all rain on Saturday.
Temperatures may also be cool enough in Valdez Friday night for
some snow to mix in as well. Higher elevations of Hatcher Pass
(above 3,000 ft) will likely (70-80 percent) see 6-12 inches of
snow with this system.

This front will stream moisture into the region through the
weekend due to southerly winds in the lower atmosphere and
southwesterly winds well aloft driving ample moisture advection,
maintaining steady precipitation for much of the region through
Saturday.

By late Saturday, models show a shortwave driving northward along
the front which will spin up a new surface low NE of Kodiak as
the upper-level wave becomes more negatively tilted. Again, there
is good model agreement that this new feature and its front then
drive toward the northern Gulf for late Saturday with the
development of a coastal ridge out ahead of the front. There is
high confidence (80-90 percent) that this solution will enhance SE
gap winds through typical locations; however, with the low south
of the Kenai Peninsula, a down inlet flow will set up with high
confidence (80-90% percent) that the Turnagain Arm jet bend south
and away from Anchorage by Saturday night. The strong
southeasterly flow aloft will also increase downsloping with
precipitation chances in the lee of the coastal mountains
diminishing from 60-80 percent Friday night and into Saturday to
30-40 percent by Saturday evening. Downsloping winds off the
Chugach will keep most of the central and northern Copper River
Basin dry on Saturday as well. This low moves into the coast on
Sunday and quickly dissipates. Winds look to decrease Sunday
morning as the pressure gradient weakens. Cloud cover still
remains on Sunday, with at least a 30 percent chance of
precipitation across the region. Highest chances on Sunday
continue to be along the Coast and in the Susitna Valley.

-TM/PA


&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Friday through Sunday)...

Ex Typhoon Choi-wan continues to weaken. Its center is now
expected to only clip the northwestern edge of the Bering Sea this
weekend as it takes a more northerly path. Its front is clearly
seen on satellite imagery moving into the YK Delta currently.
There are no remaining wind advisories across the Aleutians, but a
wind advisory does remain in effect until 7pm this evening for
the Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island. Winds gusting from 30 to
as high as 45 mph will steadily diminish later this evening as the
front weakens. Friday morning`s high tide is expected to be lower
than Thursday morning`s high tide. So far, no impacts have been
reported, with the high surf advisory is set to expire at 3pm on
Friday.

Overall, winds were slightly increased overnight Friday into
Saturday for most of the Bering Sea as a new wave of energy lifts
into the Bering and enhances southwesterly flow region-wide. No
additional impacts are expected for most of the region, though
gales are forecast for the Pribilof Islands Friday night into
Saturday morning. For the rest of the weekend, a series of weaker
shortwaves will round the low and track through the southern
Bering, which will lead to showery conditions for much of the
region. Winds will remain elevated with widespread small craft
conditions until the low eventually fills in weakens.


-SS/BL


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The upper level low in the Northern Bering Sea starts to break
down early next week. By Tuesday, we start to see another low from
the Pacific interact with the northern Bering low. Confidence is
increasing for ample moisture advecting north and strong winds
developing around the low near the Aleutians Wednesday. Much of
the model guidance yesterday had this low staying near or south of
the Alaska Peninsula with the outlier solutions trying to track
it into the Bering Sea. Some of those outliers are starting to
align more with the more southerly track. This system is likely to
bring a broad area of gale force winds with gusts greater than 50
kts. However, there is the potential (25 to 45 percent
probability) of sustained winds greater than 50 kts with higher
gusts, especially from the Unalaska area and east to Kodiak and
the northern Gulf. This will be dependent upon not only the
strength of low pressure system, but also its placement in
relation to the geographic features across southern mainland
Wednesday and Thursday. Once the front moves inland, the low does
not seem to track very far, meandering somewhere near the western
Gulf or Bristol Bay and gradually weakening through the rest of
this weak. Meanwhile, another low from the Pacific looks to skirt
south of the Aleutian chain Wednesday night through Friday. At
this time, it appears to have minimal impact is it stays far
enough south.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR with light and variable winds until Friday afternoon.
There is a small chance (10 to 20 percent) for fog develop Friday
morning. Also, cloud decks around 1000 to 3000 feet may increase
in coverage Friday morning as well. On Friday afternoon, winds
will gradually increase through Turnagain Arm. By 03Z Sat, gusty
winds 25 to 35 kts could clip the airport and rain chances
increase to around 45 to 60 percent.

&&

$$