Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

898
FXAK68 PAFC 060043
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 PM AKDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

Southcentral Alaska is in between a ridge to the south and a low
to the north. This is allowing for mostly clear conditions, light
winds, and warm temperatures. The Copper River Basin, however, is
seeing scattered showers due to daytime heating and ample moisture
in place. There is a small chance of isolated lightning with some
of these rain showers. The Susitna Valley may also see some
isolated showers during the day.

On Saturday, a low from the west moves into the Gulf of Alaska.
This, along with troughing will bring in more moisture into
Southcentral. The systems will also build a coastal ridge over the
Western Chugach Range, allowing for gusty winds in Anchorage,
Palmer, and the Copper River Basin. There will also be gap winds
through the Barren Islands and through Shelikof Strait. Increasing
cloud cover and cooler air from the north will decrease high
temperatures by around 10 degrees across the board (highs in the
60s). The moisture brought in will allow for chances for showers
in higher elevations and the Susitna Valley. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Talkeetna
Mountains. Some of these storms could drift into the Copper River
Basin north of Glennallen. For the rest of the weekend and into
early next week, troughing will remain over Southcentral, allowing
for continued scattered showers. Wind speeds will gradually
decrease and become lighter by Monday. Chances for thunderstorms
will be on the lower side due to lower instability from Sunday
onward. High temperatures will remain cooler, but will gradually
warm through Monday. An upper trough looks to swing into
Southcentral towards the middle of next week which could bring
rain and cooler temperatures.

-JAR

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday evening)...

As of this afternoon, a weak North Pacific low south of the
Aleutian Chain has its attendant front draped across the Central
Aleutians, which has brought rain showers and breezy conditions to
these areas. This surface low will continue to skirt eastward and
south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through the end of
the short term.

For the Bristol Bay region, ceilings and visibility have improved
this afternoon, though satellite imagery reveals a tongue of low
stratus/fog still banked along the Bering side of the Alaska
Peninsula and the Eastern Aleutians. Cooler air has worked its way
across the Bering in the wake of a passing upper level trough,
and a surface ridge anchored across the western Bering continues
to work in tandem with lower pressure across Southwest Alaska and
the Interior. The interaction of these two synoptic features has
yielded a prevailing northwesterly wind across the Bering and
advection fog with associated low stratus. MOS guidance and the
HRRR once again are bullish on bringing fog back in Saturday
morning anywhere from Dutch Harbor to Dillingham and King Salmon,
and the main forecast challenge for the near term is timing out a)
if/when areas still seeing fog/low stratus scatter out, b) when
exactly the fog returns Saturday morning, and c) when it begins to
erode and mix out.

A series of shortwave troughs rotating around the southern
periphery of a positively tilted longwave arctic trough will drive
over Southwest Alaska for Saturday and Sunday, which will bring a
return of increased cloud cover and an uptick in shower chances.
An isolated thunderstorm is possible on Sunday as a stronger
shortwave moves over the region, mainly east and southeast of the
Kuskokwim Mountains from the Bristol Bay region northeastward to
the Lime Village area.

By Monday afternoon, the aforementioned arctic trough reorients
itself and begins to dig southeastward over Southwest Alaska from
the Bering Strait. There is a bit of a spread in the global models
on when the trough reaches Southwest Alaska and how quickly it
drops southward towards the Alaska Peninsula, but the general idea
is that widespread showers return for the first part of the week.


-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Tuesday is shaping up to be an unsettled day for much of Alaska,
as an Arctic shortwave pushes into the southern interior. As its
associated cold front arrives, it should help cool temperatures
slightly below average for many locations. High pressure over the
Bering should prevent the cold front from working too far West,
keeping the Aleutians and most of the AKPen warm and dry. Light
scattered showers (and potentially isolated thunderstorms) will
work across the state from Northwest to Southeast as this system
sweeps through.

For Wednesday and Thursday, intermittent showers will likely
linger over Southcentral, with temperatures remaining near
seasonal norms. Conditions should improve for the southwest
interior as the Bering ridge spreads further East, maintaining
mostly dry and warmer weather.

Looking toward the end of the week, some model guidance hints at
a moderately strong North Pacific low migrating into the Gulf of
Alaska. The GFS and ECMWF are in fairly good agreement for this
system pushing into the southern coast by Friday -- even
potentially tapping into Subtropical moisture. If this occurs
Southcentral would be looking at a continuation of this active
pattern, particularly for coastal areas.

-CW

&&

 .AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period.
Light northerly winds may turn west to southwesterly by early
evening before switching to more south-southeasterly tonight as
the Turnagain Arm winds increase. Winds are expected to bend into
the terminal at times with gusts up to 25 kts...beginning tonight
and continuing through early Sun morning.

&&


$$