Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

524
FXAK68 PAFC 070057
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
457 PM AKDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Friday evening)...

Afternoon satellite imagery reveals the Gulf low that has caused
the steady rain along the coast and showers inland over the last
few days has moved north to around Prince William Sound. This low
will continue to weaken through Wednesday morning as it eventually
dissipates. Shower activity will also decrease in coverage and
intensity as well through Wednesday as the low continues to weaken
and dissipate.

An upper-level shortwave, currently over the Yukon Delta, will
dig southeastward and over the northern Susitna Valley late
tonight and Wednesday. Southerly upslope flow along with cooling
temperatures will allow for light snow to develop along the Parks
Highway north of Talkeetna late tonight through Wednesday. The
most likely place for snow to reach road level tonight into
Wednesday will be from Chulitna northward towards Windy Pass.
Light snow is also possible across the northern Copper River Basin
Wednesday into early Thursday; mainly for Paxson.

The shortwave responsible for the northern Susitna Valley and
northern Copper River Basin light snow Wednesday will move east
through interior Alaska as it weakens for Thursday. Shower
activity will diminish by mid-morning Thursday across interior
Southcentral Alaska. Along the coast, scattered showers will taper
off by Thursday afternoon as another disturbance in the Gulf
weakens and dissipates. An upper-level ridge moves overhead from
Southwest Alaska Thursday night into Friday morning. There is
uncertainty in fog formation in association with this ridge as it
will depend if clouds break and conditions can become clear during
the night to take advantage of radiational cooling.

All-in-all Thursday, especially the second half of Thursday, is
shaping up to be a nicer weather day with highs in the 40s across
Southcentral and low rain chances. Friday also looks good too.
However, clouds will begin to build in for the second half of
Friday as a front over Southwest will approach Southcentral. Rain
looks to reach southern Kodiak Island by Friday afternoon and work
east to Cook Inlet and the Kenai Peninsula by Friday evening.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tuesday through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong storm system will impact the Bering Sea, Aleutian
  Islands, and Southwest Alaska from this afternoon through the
  end of the week.

* For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands: Winds pick up today,
  but the strongest winds will be from Wednesday afternoon through
  Thursday afternoon. High Wind Watches are in effect from Shemya
  east to Atka, and for the Pribilof Islands.

* For Southwest Alaska and Alaska Peninsula: Timing of stormiest
  conditions will be Thursday into the weekend. Max gusts
  approaching 40-50 mph. Coastal flooding unlikely, but there is
  still a potential for high surf along Kuskokwim Delta coast due
  to sustained onshore winds.


Discussion:

Not much has changed since the previous forecast package. A Gulf
of Alaska low will continue to bring breezy and showery conditions
to the Eastern Bering and Alaska Peninsula through tomorrow, with
a cooling trend for Southwest Alaska through Wednesday night.

Further west in the Bering, the main focus will be on a
sprawling, strong storm system that will result from the
interaction of a Kamchatka low and the remnants of ex-Typhoon
Choi-wan. The Kamchatka low will be the first to bring impacts to
the area; its gale-force front will sweep into the Western Bering
beginning this afternoon. Choi-wan will arrive Wednesday
afternoon/evening, bringing with it strong winds and abundant
moisture.

Confidence remains fairly high that Choi-wan will bring sustained
storm force winds and hurricane force gusts somewhere in our
forecast area, though the exact location will depend on the track
of Choi-wan. High Wind Watches are in effect where the strongest
winds will likely occur. Current thinking is that there will be
about a 50-70% chance of Shemya and Adak seeing gusts 75 mph or
greater, while Atka and the Pribilof Islands will see about a
40-60% chance of gusts 75 mph or greater. These probabilities may
change as confidence increases in the low track. In addition to
strong winds, large portions of the Bering Sea will see wave
heights 20 ft or greater, with wave heights as high as 30 to 35 ft
in the far western Bering.

For areas east of the Pribilof Islands (including Unalaska, Alaska
Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska), this storm will still pack a
punch when it arrives late this week, but it will be weakening as
it tracks east across the Bering Sea. As such, gusts will very
likely remain below 75 mph, and will likely top out in the range
of 40-50 mph. Still, we continue to monitor the potential for high
surf along Kuskokwim Delta coast, especially for south-facing
communities like Kwigillingok and Kongiganak. While wind speeds
won`t be excessively strong, a long duration of southerly winds in
combination with a long fetch could lead to high surf.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A deep upper low starts to move into the northern Bering Sea and
the high amplitude ridge over the southern mainland starts to
breakdown, moving eastward and allowing for more moisture
advection under south to southwesterly flow. The front associated
with the Bering low, will lift across the Gulf of Alaska over the
weekend with strong southeasterly at the surface winds. Ample
moisture is expected to move through Southcentral with most of the
precipitation focused toward Kodiak Island, the northern Gulf
coast, and Prince William Sound. Southeast flow would promote
precipitation enhancement through orographic lift along the
windward slopes and downslope drying to the leeside. The amount of
precipitation will depend on the progression of the front and
surface low development in the Gulf. The Bering low and the upper
level flow into southern mainland starts to weaken Sunday night
and although some showers could linger, the bulk of moisture
starts to hedge toward the northeastern Gulf. Confidence decreases
Monday and Tuesday with the Bering low weakening and the embedded
shortwaves along the upper level flow begins to shift the overall
pattern. It appears the Bering low starts to interact with energy
to the south of the Aleutians. By Wednesday, the upper trough is
generally focused near Unalaska and the Alaska Peninsula and a
brief ridge returns to southern mainland before a frontal passage
passes through the region with additional moisture and strong
winds. Beyond the emergence of this low, models disagree with how
it progresses in time, strength of the low with its accompanying
features, and the location of the strongest winds.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings are expected for this afternoon and evening,
but lower cloud decks will remain with rain in the vicinity.
Conditions are expected to lower into MVFR and perhaps IFR/LIFR
tonight through Wednesday morning as an area of low pressure over
the northern Gulf lifts inland through tomorrow. Generally light
southeast winds are expected, but higher gusts up to 15 kts cannot
be ruled out after 09Z tonight through 21Z Wednesday.

&&

$$