Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

449
FXAK68 PAFC 230026
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKDT Wed Apr 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Saturday)...

Key Points:

* Unseasonably wet and windy weather remains on track for Tonight
  through Friday night.

* The wettest weather will be the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince
  William Sound, and the Susitna Valley with rainfall totals of 1
  to 3 inches expected for most communities. Whittier, Portage and
  Cordova could see 4 inches or more of rain.

* A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the Susitna Valley
  from 9pm this evening through Saturday morning. Rain and
  snowmelt combined with still frozen surfaces could make it hard
  for all of the water to find a place to properly drain. As a
  result, there could be minor flooding of low-lying roads and
  properties.

* Strong and gusty southeasterly gap winds will develop this
  afternoon and evening and persist through at least Thursday.
  Locations that will see some of the strongest winds include
  Turnagain Arm, Anchorage Hillside, south to west Anchorage,
  Palmer and the Knik River Valley, and Glennallen and the Copper
  River. There will be some fluctuations in the strength of these
  winds and which gaps are blowing at any given time - but there
  will be additional periods of strong wind through Saturday.

A high amplitude pattern is in place over Alaska, with a trough in
the Bering Sea/North Pacific and a ridge extending from the
northeast Pacific to mainland Alaska. The trough is anchored by a
deep vertically stacked low in the southern Bering Sea, with a
surface front wrapped around the low center, up across the
north-central, then southward across Southwest AK. A sharp short-
wave is lifting northward across Southwest AK, pushing the ridge
axis over mainland AK eastward toward Canada. Rain and stronger
winds are beginning to overspread Kodiak Island and Southcentral
AK ahead of both the upper short-wave and surface front.

The forecast is on track for tonight through Thursday night, with
little to no change. The large scale pattern will be stable, with
a high amplitude ridge over the eastern Gulf up into Canada, a
high amplitude trough in the Bering, and deep moist southerly flow
in between affecting Kodiak and Southcentral. A series of short-
waves will track from south to north across Southcentral,
enhancing both winds and precipitation as they move through.
Coastal areas of the south and eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound as well as the northern to western Susitna Valley
will see the brunt of rainfall, with multiple inches over the
next few days. While precipitation totals are not all that
impressive for these areas, it is rare to see this pattern and
these totals in April which is typically one of the driest months
of the year. Snow levels will remain relatively low (3000 feet or
lower) which will minimize mountain snow melt. As a result,
flooding potential is relatively low. The best potential is in the
Susitna Valley, where there is a deeper snowpack and more frozen
ground. This could cause localized flowing in low-lying areas as
water from rain and snowmelt struggles to find places to drain.

The one big change to the forecast is from Friday through Friday
night, as all model guidance has now locked on to a strong
negatively tilted short-wave and surface low lifting northward
across the western Gulf/Kodiak and into Southcentral. With a
deeper layer of low-level southeasterly flow ahead of this,
expect another round of moderate precipitation for the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and western Susitna Valley.

The upper flow will shift on Saturday, becoming less amplified as
a new storm tracks into the Bering Sea and a ridge begins to build
ahead of it. Thus, expect both wind and precipitation to diminish
across Southcentral and the Gulf/Kodiak Island on Saturday.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Saturday)...

Active and stormy weather continues through Thursday afternoon as
the region remains under the influence of a Bering Sea low. The
front that brought widespread snow and freezing rain across the
Kuskokwim Delta continues to push inland with rain continuing
across interior Southwest Alaska communities through this evening.
The vertically stacked low continues to track northward across
the central Bering just west of a line from Adak to Saint Paul.
Shower activity and sustained winds to gale force will shift west
to east along the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and the Pribilofs
through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Along the Southwest
Alaska coast, expect another round of light rain or rain/snow mix
and gusty southerly winds Thursday morning as the low continues
north and weakens.

Expect quieter, but still unsettled, weather from Thursday
afternoon into Saturday across Southwest Alaska as weaker upper
level shortwaves rotate through the region and bring periods of
showers. By Friday evening, a strengthening North Pacific low
begins its entrance into the Bering Sea, bringing the next round
of strong winds and moderate to heavy precipitation. While the
track of this low remains uncertain, confidence continues to
increase in the possibility of widespread storm-force winds and
the potential for hurricane-force gusts along the Aleutian Chain
for Saturday as the system likely reaches its peak intensity.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Unsettled weather continues across much of Alaska into early next
week as a North Pacific low moves into the southern Bering near
Adak Sunday morning. This system tracks northward, moving to
northwest of the Pribilof Islands Monday and stalling as it
occludes. Some places in the central Aleutians may see storm force
winds Sunday and Monday. Otherwise, widespread gale- force winds
are anticipated across the Aleutians, much of the Bering, and
Bristol Bay Sunday through Tuesday. Coastal impacts look minimal
for now, thanks to both shorefast ice and an extensive icepack
over the eastern Bering.

A front tied to this system will push into the AkPen and
Southwest Alaska Sunday morning, the western Gulf and Kodiak
Island Sunday afternoon, then to Southcentral late Sunday night.
This will tap into a steady stream of moisture. Widespread
precipitation is anticipated across southern Alaska as the front
moves through. Kodiak Island, coastal areas along the northern
Gulf, and higher terrain of the Alaska Range will see the heaviest
precipitation due to upsloping from southeasterly flow. Likewise,
this southeasterly flow will promote downsloping for the western
Chugach and Kenai Mountains, as well as the Bering side of the
AkPen which could limit precipitation in those areas.

As the main low weakens and occludes in the northern Bering, more
shortwaves look to rotate around the low and move northward from
the Pacific into southcentral Alaska. Most models agree on one
moving into southcentral Monday night into Tuesday. Maintained
southeasterly winds will favor heavier precip along the northern
Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island. After Tuesday morning, models
diverge on both the timing and positioning of future shortwaves.
Some show shortwaves moving over the AkPen and southwest Alaska
Tuesday into Wednesday while others show shortwaves moving over southcentral
Wednesday into Thursday. Details about midweek
shortwaves will become more clear in the coming days, especially
after the current low in the Bering and the low in the Bering early
next week occlude and weaken. Nonetheless, this setup favors a
steady feed of moisture, particularly for southcentral Alaska.

PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Southeast winds will remain gusty through the TAF period
with some higher gusts of 25 to 35 kts as the Turnagain Arm winds
occasionally turn more toward the terminal. VFR conditions are
expected to persist, with brief dips into MVFR with any passing
rain showers.


&&


$$