Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

666
FXAK68 PAFC 090013
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 PM AKDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday)...

Quiet weather remains in place across much of Southcentral today
as the region sits between stronger weather systems. Light winds
and a mix of clouds and filtered sunshine will continue through
the day, though lingering gap winds will gradually ease as
pressure gradients weaken. Temperatures will remain near seasonal
normals with little day to day change.

The next notable weather makers arrives tonight into tomorrow
morning, Tuesday as an upper-level trough drops south across the
Alaska Range and into Southcentral. A band of rain is expected to
develop and spread eastward across the Susitna Valley before
reaching the Mat Valley, Anchorage Bowl, Northeast portions of
the Kenai Peninsula through the day and into the Copper River
Basin Tuesday afternoon. While confidence is high that most
locations will see some rainfall, uncertainty remains regarding
where the heaviest totals ultimately set up. Cooler temperatures
aloft associated with the trough will also promote a more unstable
atmosphere.

The greatest potential for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening remains across the Copper River Basin, where scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop.
Unsettled conditions continue into Wednesday as the trough slowly
shifts eastward, keeping scattered showers and chance of isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon for the Susitna Valley and the
Copper River Basin.

A gradual pattern change begins Thursday as the trough departs and
weak ridging starts to build overhead. This should bring
increasing sunshine along with slightly warmer and dried
conditions over Southcentral. Even so, enough lingering moisture
and instability may support isolated afternoon thunderstorms
across portions of the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin, with
a few storm potential extending south into the Palmer and Wasilla
areas. Outside of these location, Thursday looks to be the start
of a more favorable stretch of weather heading into the end of the
week.

LM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday afternoon)...

A few rain showers are working southward across the northern
fringes of Southwest Alaska ahead of an advancing cold front in
response to an upper level arctic trough digging southward over
the region. The trough is clearly visible on satellite, as is a
large swath of low stratus and areas of fog from persistent high
pressure situated across the Bering and draped along the Bering
side of the Eastern Aleutians and the Alaska Peninsula. The fog
and low stratus has lingered long enough today for these areas to
keep temperatures cooler for the Bristol Bay region and the Bering
side of the Alaska Peninsula/Eastern Aleutians. High resolution
models such as the HRRR keeps fog/low stratus going through the
overnight hours, though the MOS guidance has backed off on fog for
these areas for tomorrow morning. This is a challenging fog
forecast for tomorrow morning considering we have seen a similar
setup/pattern over the last few days, but the arctic trough
driving southward should force more mixing and shearing at the top
of a fog/low stratus layer. All said, the most likely outcome for
tomorrow morning is a shorter duration of fog and for it not to
be as widespread as today. Precipitation wise, the trend in the
guidance for Tuesday morning is for the western half of Southwest
Alaska to see less rain showers as the front moves southward
overnight with much of the rainfall confined to the eastern half
of the region (essentially from Sleetmute to Koliganek and points
eastward). Expect cooler daytime high temperatures to be in the
works for Tuesday across all of Southwest Alaska as cold air
advection spills southward with the progression of the trough.

The global models show that the trough weakens and becomes ill
defined by Tuesday afternoon as it swings over the Alaska
Peninsula, which will allow for ridging over the Bering to start
to build eastward. The movement of this synoptic feature will lead
to warmer and drier weather for Southwest Alaska for Wednesday
and Thursday. That said, fog and low stratus will persist across
the Bering. Meanwhile, with the ridge moving eastward, the global
models generally agree that this will pave the way for a high end
small craft to gale force front to approach the Western Aleutians
leading into Wednesday afternoon with rainfall. Though the high
pressure is on track to move eastward across the Bering, it will
still have enough of an influence that the front will essentially
become blocked from progressing much farther eastward than the
Western Aleutians.

Looking a bit farther out of the short term timeframe, models are
honing in on the North Pacific storm track becoming more active
once again as a North Pacific low begins to move northward and
generally towards the Alaska Peninsula. Stay tuned.

-AM



&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

On Friday, A weak Gulf low will generate showers to Southcentral
Alaska and A high over the Kusko Delta will bring fair weather to
Southwest as well as the Alaska Peninsula. Both systems will
dissipate by the afternoon. A trough over the Bering will bring
showers to the Aleutians Friday through Monday.

An upper level ridge over the eastern Gulf will remain nearly
stationary through Sunday and then move eastward by Monday. This
is important as it blocks an originating Pacific Low from going into
the eastern Gulf. The combination of the anticyclonic flow aloft from
the ridge and cyclonic flow from the low pressure system will
enhance southerly flow ushering in warm and moist air into the
northern and western Gulf coast. This is expected to bring
precipitation to Southcentral Alaska, Alaska Peninsula, and Kodiak
Island. There is strong model confidence that there will be
periods of heavy rain for Prince William Sound and Kodiak Island
Saturday into Sunday.

-SS

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through tonight. A front
moving in from the northwest will bring potential for rain
arriving at the terminal late tonight into Tuesday morning. Expect
ceilings to lower as rain arrives, perhaps dipping into MVFR
range by early Tuesday morning. The rain should end, with a return
to VFR conditions, by late Tuesday morning.

Westerly winds this afternoon will turn northerly overnight with a
return to light westerly winds Tuesday afternoon.

&&


$$