Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

936
FXAK68 PAFC 241441
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
641 AM AKDT Thu Sep 24 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Gap winds return to Southcentral as ahead of a gale force front
  that will lift northeastward across the northern Gulf.

Discussion:

The low in the eastern Gulf is continuing to weaken in place as a
band of rain showers moving around its northern periphery moves
from east to west along the northern Gulf coast into Prince
William Sound this morning. These showers will continue to spread
west across the Gulf coast through the rest of this morning. By
this afternoon, gap winds will start to increase, becoming breezy
ahead of the incoming front that arrives to the western Gulf
tonight.

While the parent area of low pressure remains in the Bering,
models show the front lifting northeastward across the Gulf
through the rest of the short term. Winds will reach Kodiak Island
starting this afternoon and then spread north after midnight
tonight. Coastal ridging is on track to build across the northern
Gulf coast on Friday, which will lead to increasing gap winds for
the Copper River Basin, Knik River Valley, and Turnagain Arm. For
precipitation, rain chances increase later this evening for Kodiak
Island and spread north across the northern Gulf coast overnight.
Periods of locally heavy rain are possible with strong orographic
lift. By Sunday morning, Seward, Cordova, Valdez, and east
Turnagain Arm could see roughly one to three inches of rainfall.
In contrast to coastal locations, southeasterly winds ahead of the
front will create a rainshadow affect for the western Kenai,
Anchorage Bowl, the MatSu, and Copper River Basin, keeping these
areas mostly dry through Saturday morning. As the front continues
north though, some of the energy could push moisture up Cook
Inlet, bringing light rainfall to Kenai, Anchorage, and the MatSu
Saturday afternoon. The pressure gradient will show signs of
gradual relaxing Saturday night into Sunday, but strong winds will
continue to push east to southeast winds into Prince William
Sound.

As the east to west oriented pressure gradient maximizes along
the Gulf coast from the coastal ridge Friday afternoon and the
southeasterly winds from the front itself aligns with the
Turnagain Arm, expect Turnagain Arm winds to increase here as
well. Due to the parent low location out west signaling down-inlet
flow, the Anchorage Bowl seems to be less of a concern than the
Hillside, where at elevation wind gusts will be ticking upward of
50 mph. Overall consensus remains short of Wind Advisory criteria
for the Hillside. Current forecast confidence is still in the
medium range (50 to 60 percent) for Hillside wind gusts. Higher
profile vehicles may struggle with those gusty winds on the Seward
Highway along the Turnagain Arm, especially Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning as the highway could become clipped with strong
wind gusts. The low location out west will be a key factor in
determining the extent of impacts from the Turnagain Arm winds.

-AM/Rux

&&




.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong Bering Sea low to impact the Bering Sea, Aleutian and
  Pribilof Islands, and Southwest Alaska through Saturday.

* For the Bering Sea: Widespread areas of gale force winds, some
  areas of sustained storm force winds with hurricane force gusts
  expected through the Western and Central Aleutians including
  near Adak/Atka and Shemya where High Wind Warnings are in
  effect. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Unalaska for gusts up
  to 55 mph late Thursday and Friday. Expect elevated wave
  heights, with seas up to 25 to 35 ft possible.

* For Southwest Alaska: Southeasterly gale force winds likely, and
  a Wind Advisory is in effect for Coastal Kuskokwim Delta, the
  Western Capes, and northern Bristol Bay coast. The Coastal Flood
  Warning remains in effect with the primary communities of
  concern being Kwigillingok/Kongiganak and Kipnuk, and
  communities near and along the mouth of the Kuskokwim River.

Discussion:

Satellite imagery this morning shows the very strong low pressure
system centered over the southwestern Bering Sea, with its front
draped across the central Bering. The low has likely reached its
minimum central pressure this morning at ~960 mb with very strong
winds across the Aleutians and Bering Sea performing as
advertised. The core of the strongest winds begin to track from
west to east across the Aleutian Chain this morning through this
evening. Along the front, a rapidly strengthening, compact triple-
point low associated with the energy of Ex-Typhoon Dujuan will
continue to lift north across the eastern Bering through this
afternoon as the front pushes east towards the coast.

By this afternoon, the two systems will continue to interact and
merge, forming a complex low centered over the central Bering Sea.
Sustained gale-force winds are highly likely to encompass much of
the Bering Sea and Aleutians. The strongest core of sustained
storm-force winds to the south of the low center will track across
the Aleutian Chain from this morning through late this evening.
Widespread high-end storm-force gusts and the potential for
hurricane force gusts (>=75 mph) will be likely along the Aleutian
Chain. High Wind Warnings remain in effect for Shemya and Attu
through 10 AM AKDT this morning and until 10 PM AKDT this evening
for Adak and Atka. The combination of strong winds and long fetch
could lead to high seas, perhaps on the order of 25 to 35 ft
across the Bering Sea and North Pacific waters just south of the
Aleutians. Additionally, a Wind Advisory has been issued for
Unalaska and Nikolski for sustained winds of 35 to 45 mph out of
the West with gusts to 55 mph starting Thursday evening, coming to
an end by Friday evening.

For Southwest Alaska, there is high confidence for the storm to
gale-force front reaching the coast through this morning. Strong
southeasterly winds will continue to build through this morning,
with winds likely peaking early this afternoon, bringing the
potential for gusts up to 60 mph along the immediate coast through
Thursday evening as the front moves inland. As such, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect from the northern Bristol Bay coast up
through the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Given the strong push of
onshore flow, the Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect until
Saturday morning for the Kuskokwim Delta coast. Models continue to
struggle to come to a consensus on the precise track of the low
as it nears the YK-Delta through Friday and the timing for which
it begins to move inland and weaken. Despite the uncertainty,
there is enough confidence to say that elevated water levels
across portions of the Kuskokwim Delta coastline are expected.
Water levels on average of 1.5 to 2.5 feet above the normal
highest tide line are expected in Kwigillingok for Thursday, with
the worst case scenario water levels at 5 feet above the normal
highest tide line. Water levels 1 to 2 feet above the normal
highest tide line are expected in Kipnuk for Friday.

The low is generally expected to move inland and weaken through
Saturday, with the remaining westerly small craft winds across
the southern Bering and Bristol Bay, eastern Aleutians, and
Alaska Peninsula to weaken from west to east through Saturday
evening. Showery and relatively calmer weather will linger across
the Southwest Mainland through the weekend.

-JH/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

An upper level stationary low over the Interior Mainland late
this weekend causes a trough to dig into the Bering Sea through
the middle of next week. This trough brings persistent
northerly/northwesterly winds to the Central and Western Aleutians
through mid-week. Additionally, the flow brings low pressure
systems through this area Monday and Wednesday resulting in rounds
of precipitation and gusty winds through the bays and passes. The
exact track of the mid-week storm through the Aleutians is
uncertain with the general consensus of a more southerly route
looking likely at this time as winds turn more northerly. In
Southwest Alaska, onshore flow and weak ridging sets up between
the lows` passing.

For Southcentral, multiple lows are projected to enter the Gulf
of Alaska bringing rain and wind to Kodiak Island and both the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and the Prince William Sound coasts from
late this weekend and into the middle of next week. There are
signals of a weak ridge in the Gulf of Alaska arrives late next
Wednesday.



&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Light
and variable winds early this morning become southeasterly around
12Z. Winds gradually shift more easterly through the day, with
Turnagain Arm wind developing Thursday afternoon. Increasing mid-
level cloud cover is expected tonight, though ceilings will remain
VFR.

LM


&&


$$