Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

902
FXAK68 PAFC 070038
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
438 PM AKDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Flood Warning remains in effect for the Yentna River including
  Lake Creek through 1PM tomorrow.

- Warmer and mostly dry for Southcentral through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers possible in the
  Upper Susitna Valley and Northern Copper River Basin through
  Saturday.

Discussion:

Currently, high pressure resides over the Gulf while low pressure
resides over the Seward Peninsula. Lingering showers in the Copper
River Basin and Northern Susitna Valley will taper off late this
evening as the low continues northward and flow weakens.

High pressure from the Gulf builds into Southcentral through the
weekend, leading to mostly drier weather across the region. The
one exception will be the northern Copper River Basin, Talkeetna
Mountains and upper Susitna Valley, where isolated to scattered
afternoon/evening showers will be possible tomorrow and Saturday.
Thunderstorm chances are low (10 to 20 percent) but a lightning
strike or two in the Upper Copper River Basin tomorrow afternoon
cannot be ruled out.

Temperatures will warm across the region through the weekend. The
warmest will be the Copper River Basin, where high temperatures
will be in the upper 70s. Mat-Su, Anchorage, and the Kenai
Peninsula will be in the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow, then low
to mid 70s Saturday and Sunday. Coastal regions around the Gulf
warm to the mid to upper 60s for the weekend.

Though flow is relatively weak, a slight increase of westerly
winds up to around 15 to 20 mph could kick in late tonight through
tomorrow evening. The Copper River Basin could see
some localized breezy winds, especially through wind-prone
gaps from the south or west, such as Tahneta Pass. Whittier could
also see an enhancement of winds from the west during this
timeframe as well. Tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening,
westerly winds may increase through and east of the Barren
Islands.

PA

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

An upper-level low is lifting northward from the Seward
Peninsula. Several weak shortwaves will continue to rotate around
the parent low this afternoon. Precipitation will taper off
through Friday morning with only isolated afternoon showers over
higher terrain.

Friday afternoon, high pressure builds over the eastern Bering,
centered over Bristol Bay, drier conditions and clearer skies are
expected for Saturday across the Aleutian Chain and Bristol Bay
regions. Farther north, a low from the Russian far east tracks
across Saint Matthew Island Saturday afternoon. Its front brushes
the western coast from the Kuskokwim Delta to the western capes as
it drops across the Pribilof Islands on Sunday.

High temperatures begin a warming trend from the high 50s into
the mid to high 60s that continues through the weekend. Locations
farther inland may see low to mid 70s by Sunday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Early next week, troughs of low pressure will have moved through
the South/Southeastern Bering Sea, over the Aleutians, and into
the northern Pacific Ocean. Model solutions have come together
slightly, leading to more confidence that by Monday morning a low
pressure system will be just south of Unalaska. That being said,
the strength of these lows are not impressive, lending to the idea
of weaker winds and rainfall totals anyway. Through Tuesday, as
the troughs move through, a col may develop over the
southern/central Bering Sea, leading to a mixed pattern of showers
and confused winds and waves.

Over the Southern Mainland of Alaska, weak areas of high and low
pressure are expected to develop through the late weekend and
early next week. The resulting weather will be diurnally- driven
showers this weekend into next week. This pattern supports more of
a scattered shower regime as opposed to widespread stratiform.
The challenge will be to gauge instability each afternoon to
determine whether or not lightning will be a threat with any
robust showers that form. Right now, it looks like the Copper
River Basin, along the Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western
Alaska Range feature the most instability through the long-term
period.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC... Light west to northwest winds continue. No rain is
expected through at least the next 30 hours, but ceilings are
forecast to dip to MVFR overnight due to lingering moisture from
this morning`s rainfall. There remains a slight chance for fog,
though this looks less likely as skies trend cloudier.

&&

$$