Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

618
FXAK68 PAFC 130116
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
416 PM AKST Thu Nov 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Longwave troughing persists across portions of the Bering Sea and
Gulf of Alaska, with several shortwaves curving towards
Southcentral.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Kodiak Island this
evening through Friday afternoon. Rain mixing with snow this
afternoon will becoming all snow as temperatures cool and
precipitation intensities increase tonight. There remains some
uncertainty in snow levels, with fluctuations between 0 and 400
feet across the current models and slight deviations in storm
position. Chances for rain to mix with snow is likely for Kodiak
City and the archipeligo to the north, allowing for 2-4 inches of
snowfall. If rain does not mix in, expect higher snow amounts.
Kodiak Airport to Women`s Bay are more likely to see all snow with
colder temperatures and could see snow amounts of 6-10 inches.
Along the western portions of the Island, colder temperatures are
expected to hold and precipitation type will be all snow. Snow
accumulations of up to 7 inches possible with highest amounts
toward near Karluk and Larsen Bay.

Elsewhere, light showers will will across portions of
Southcentral, particularly along the Coast, through this afternoon
before tapering off. Most of Southcentral will dry out tonight as
low level flow flips northerly.

As we head to Saturday, a warm front extending north from the
a low shifting into the Northeast Pacific will track westward
across the Gulf as an upper level short-wave approaches from the
Bering. This is favorable for a "deformation band" of heavier
precipitation. Current model guidance mostly favors the Kenai
Peninsula, with some potential that precipitation reaches
Anchorage. Precipitation will also be a challenge as precipitation
first arrives, though with warming from the east would expect a
snow to rain transition.

KM/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Broad cyclonic flow aloft with a trough anchored by a closed
upper low near Gambell continues to reinforce cold air advection
across the Bering Sea along with convective snow showers moving
from north to south. Northwesterly winds in the wake of a large
and deep low pressure system that has since exited into the Gulf
is still yielding small craft gap winds for the Alaska Peninsula,
particularly near Chignik and Wide Bay. These winds are on track
to decrease through Friday morning as the Gulf low loses influence
over the region. The MOS guidance along with hi-res models are
pretty bullish about freezing fog Friday morning for the Kuskokwim
Delta and Kuskokwim Delta Coast. There will be some degree of an
onshore wind component, so indications are this will be mostly
advection fog from the Bering.

Moving forward in time to Saturday morning, stronger northwesterly
gap winds (gales for the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula)
are on track to pick back up again as a deep North Pacific low
tracks well south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula. These
winds will peak late Saturday morning before gradually diminishing
mid-Saturday afternoon. A new system arrives to the Bering Sea
Saturday afternoon with a round of westerly high end small crafts
and gales for the southern Bering and Central Aleutians as the
parent low moves well northwest of the Pribilof Islands. This
system will mostly be a rainmaker for the Aleutians and Pribilof
Islands with some snow on the front`s leading edge. Warm air
advection will bump snow levels up above 1000 feet south of the
front`s triple point of the now occluded low pressure system on
Saturday. In the wake of the front/system Sunday morning, cold air
advection with snow levels falling to near sea level will allow
any remaining precipitation to fall as snow - though the bulk of
this precipitation is on track to fall over offshore marine areas,
so no impacts are expected.

Models do show this low pressure system deepening Sunday morning
as a shortwave/vorticity lobe rotates around the upper
circulation. With this interaction, expect solid northwesterly
gales for the west-central Bering Sunday morning with high end
westerly small crafts for the Aleutian Chain. Though there are
still some minor inconsistencies in the models, these gales dive
southeastward and move across the Eastern Aleutians heading into
midday Sunday.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Troughing continues into the middle of next week over Southern
Alaska and the Bering. Multiple lows will move through the
forecast area through the middle of next week, resulting in a more
unsettled weather pattern.

By Monday morning, a low pressure system looks to be positioned
in the eastern Bering with another low pressure system in the
eastern Gulf. The low in the eastern Gulf moves to the western
Gulf by Monday afternoon and becomes the primary low as the low
from the Bering merges into it. The merged low looks to stall in
the western Gulf Monday evening and weaken through Wednesday
morning before it dissipates.

Scattered snow showers look to continue across the Bering and the
Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday as cold air continues to stream
in around the low. Some isolated snow showers are possible across
Southwest Alaska on Monday, though most precipitation looks to
remain offshore. With slightly warmer temperatures near the
Aleutians, some rain may mix in with snow through Tuesday.
Precipitation should taper off for Southwest, the Alaska
Peninsula, and the eastern Bering and Aleutians by Tuesday morning
as the low continues to weaken in the Gulf. For Southcentral,
highest chances for precipitation through Wednesday morning will
be along the northern Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island, with lower
chances for precipitation for the Western Kenai, Anchorage and
places inland. Confidence is still medium with exact low
placement, with a low closer to shore increasing precip chances
inland. The Gulf low brings in slightly warmer air to Southcentral
from the North Pacific. Confidence is medium-high for most
locations at low elevations of Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf
Coast to receive rain and for most inland and higher elevation
locations to receive snow (if precip makes it there).
Precipitation type could be a mix for the western Kenai,
Anchorage, and the Mat-Su should precip fall between Monday and
Wednesday. Details will become more clear as we see what the weak
system this weekend does.

The strongest low looks to impact the western Aleutians and
Bering as it moves out of the northwest Pacific starting Monday
afternoon. Confidence is high that this low deepens to at least
960 mb by Wednesday and has strong winds around it as it moves
across the western Aleutians into the southern Bering.
Precipitation will likely be a rain/snow mix on the east side of
the low and mostly snow on the west side of the low. Confidence is
medium-low with the exact track of the low as, by Wednesday
morning, models have it positioned somewhere between the eastern
Aleutians to just north of the Pribilofs. Where the low tracks
will have an effect on potential hazards the low brings,
especially as a sting jet of up to hurricane-force winds looks to
develop south of the low on Tuesday. Should the low track in the
southern Bering, these winds line up along the Aleutian Chain into
the southern Alaska Peninsula Tuesday-Wednesday. A further north
track would keep these winds in the Bering but could bring some
coastal flooding concerns to the Southwest Coast. Exact
positioning and hazard concerns will become more clear in the
coming days.

A front from this low looks to enter the Southwest Alaska and
southwestern Gulf Wednesday morning and move onshore the northern
Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon. Chances for precipitation return
for both Southwest and Southcentral Wednesday-Thursday, with
highest confidence in Southwest Alaska and along the northern Gulf
Coast. Confidence is medium on Wednesday for gale- force winds
along this front in the Gulf. The low weakens starting Wednesday
afternoon as it tracks into Bristol Bay/the Alaska Peninsula.
Winds look to weaken, though precipitation likely remains across
Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula. By Thursday afternoon there is
general agreement of this low being positioned over the northern
Alaska Peninsula.

- PA

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

-SEB

&&
$$