Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

612
FXAK68 PAFC 041348
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
548 AM AKDT Tue Aug 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Anchorage Hillside and
the Seward Highway along Turnagain Arm through 10AM this morning for
wind gusts up to 55 mph. The Wind Advisory for west and south
Anchorage has been CANCELED.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for Central/Western Susitna Valley
from this morning through Friday morning, due to heavy rain.

Discussion:

A cloudy and wet morning over the western half of Southcentral and
Kodiak Island as widespread rainfall in ongoing this morning.
Satellite imagery shows a steady stream of moisture being drawn up
from the North Pacific over Kodiak Island and up into the interior.
The Bering low that has been driving this set-up is sitting over St.
Matthew Island where is will wobble around as it weakens. Its front
has generally stalled over the AKPEN and western Gulf as of this
morning, and while it may still get nudged a bit further east, it
will be weakening and washing out by Wednesday. A ridge of high
pressure continues to dominate the eastern half of the Gulf, but
will see its axis shift east over the Panhandle as a compact low
moves into the southern Gulf. This low will continue to trek north
on the periphery of the ridge before moving inland near Yakutat.

However, with the ridge still firmly in place over the Gulf, dry air
entrainment has been preventing good saturation to the surface
across the Kenai Peninsula and Anchorage Bowl. This has resulted in
less than efficient rainfall overnight. Recent model trends have
also been cutting off the moisture transport earlier which will also
result in lower rainfall amounts. Expect rain to start tapering off
over the western Kenai Peninsula and up through the Mat Valley and
becoming more showery by this afternoon. Modest rainfall still
anticipated for the eastern Kenai where highest amounts will fall
over the southern half. While heavier rainfall will be winding down
by tomorrow, intermittent rain showers will continue through Friday.

Winds have decreased overnight for the western and southern areas of
the Anchorage Bowl resulting in the Wind Advisory being canceled
early; however, gusty winds are likely through mid-morning. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect for the Anchorage Hillside as Winds still
remain elevated early this morning, but should diminish by mid-
morning as well.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Unsettled weather will continue across Southwest Alaska today as
a secondary shortwave rotates around the southern end of a
relatively strong (990 mb) occluded low pressure system loitering
over St. Lawrence Island. Persistent windy conditions (30 to 35
mph gusting up to 40 mph) and moderate precipitation will be
highest across the Kuskokwim Delta, lower Kuskokwim river valley,
and Bristol Bay regions through this afternoon. While not as
strong, gusty conditions (gusts up to 30 mph) will continue
across the central and Southern Bering. More settled conditions
are expected across the Aleutian chain, and Alaska Peninsula with
little measurable precipitation and winds decreasing through the
day.

The low will continue to linger near Saint Lawrence Island before
drifting to the Seward Peninsula by Wednesday morning. Reductions
in both wind and precipitation will become apparent late this
afternoon, with a much more settled pattern lined up from
Wednesday morning through the end of the work week.

Additional rainfall of up to 0.6 inches is expected from the
Western Capes to Bethel and Aniak, through Wednesday morning. Light
accumulation will continue into Thursday. During the same period,
0.10 to 0.25 inches will be possible across northern Bristol Bay
and the western foothills of the Alaska Range.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

To start out the longer term period, an upper-level low will
remain in place across interior Alaska on Friday. This low moves
off to the east across Yukon, Canada by Saturday. Aside from some
scattered showers at times across the Southern Mainland, expect
mostly quiet weather for Friday and Saturday.

The long-term forecast becomes more uncertain for Saturday and
Sunday, especially for the Bering and Aleutians. The point of
uncertainty arises with how guidance wants to handle upper-level
energy coming out of Kamchatka. The Canadian and European suites
want to develop this energy more than the GFS. Hence the GFS has a
drier solution across the Aleutian Chain while the European and
Canadian suites are wetter. Also of note, while the Canadian and
European guidance does develop the Kamchatka energy, the resulting
surface low is not expected to be strong at this time.

Across the Southern Mainland for Sunday, like the Bering, there
is some uncertainty in the forecast. The Canadian and European
suites take a shortwave moving out of the Arctic and keep it
confined more to Northern Alaska which would be a drier solution
for the Southern Alaska. The GFS, on the other hand, wants to dig
this shortwave more to south and over Southern Alaska which would
be a wetter solution for both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
for Sunday. For Monday, an upper-level low over interior Alaska
moves south towards Southern Alaska. There does not look to be a
lot of moisture with this system at this time and the likely
outcome for Monday will be that this upper-level system helps to
kick off some diurnally-forced showers across Southcentral and
Southwest Alaska.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will continue to
steadily relax this morning through early afternoon. Periods of
steady light rain will continue to move over the terminal through
this morning before tapering off by early this afternoon with
ceilings expected to remain in the VFR range.

&&


$$