Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

832
FXAK68 PAFC 120503
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
903 PM AKDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

Key Messages:

* A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for hot, dry, and windy
  conditions in Central Copper Valley, Southern Copper Valley, and
  McCarthy until 7 PM AKDT this evening.

* Active wet weather pattern continues through the short-term.

* Windy conditions return to Southcentral, potentially including
  Anchorage, early next week.

Discussion:

A front with an axis situated from the western Susitna Valley to
the Western Kenai Peninsula is bringing light rain and filling
skies. Gusty winds driven by the increased pressure gradient are
prominent through the favored gaps of Southcentral, including
Turnagain Arm and Copper River. In the Copper River along with
gusty winds, warm temperatures have been observed in the 70s with
minimum relative humidities relatively low. Therefore, hot, dry,
and windy conditions have prompted a Red Flag Warning that
remains in effect through 7pm this evening for the Central Copper
Valley, Southern Copper Valley, and McCarthy.

This front is expected to settle over Southcentral with
widespread light rainfall and showers to persist over the area
through the weekend and Monday. One area to remain relatively dry
through this period would be the Copper River Basin, with only a
chance for showers.

By Tuesday morning, a new low pressure system settling over
Bristol Bay will push a front and create another pressure gradient
in Southcentral, favorable for winds channeling through gaps. This
will also likely push another wet system over Kodiak Island
Tuesday morning. There is more uncertainty with the progression of
this system and speed of this system. Confidence is highest for
the system to be at least to Kodiak Island by Tuesday morning.
Near Anchorage, there is the potential for strong winds to develop
out of Turnagain Arm again Tuesday morning. This may drive strong
and gusty winds through the Arm, and depending on how these winds
move over Cook Inlet, may bring gusty winds into the southern
reach of Anchorage, including the Hillside, Rabbit Creek, and
Potter Valley. Stay tuned as we hone the forecast in on the
progression of this system.

-CL

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts the low pressure which
brought today`s rainfall departing north to the Interior while the
next shortwave and associated surface low passes north of the
Pribilof Islands and closes in on the Southwest coast. This brings
another round of light rainfall overspreading Southwest Alaska
this afternoon through this evening. The wet and active pattern
looks to continue through the forecast period as the longwave
trough remains anchored roughly over the eastern Bering Sea, with
several robust shortwaves and spokes of energy rotating around the
base of the trough.

By Sunday morning, rainfall across Southwest Alaska becomes
increasingly showery as the next weak low dives south across the
Bering. Models are in good agreement for this system to be rather
short-lived and dissipating as it reaches the Pribilofs Islands by
Sunday afternoon. Meanwhile, the ridge in the Pacific becomes
more amplified as the overall flow becomes heavily influenced by
the next storm lifting out of the North Pacific and towards Adak
and Atka by Monday morning. This low crosses the Aleutians and
moves across the southeastern Bering Sea through Tuesday morning,
bringing a moisture-rich fetch of warm air from the Pacific and
more rainfall across the Aleutian Chain and to Southwest through
Tuesday. Of more interest with this system is the renewed
possibility of marine lightning and isolated thunderstorms
beginning Monday morning for the coastal zones south of Adak/Atka,
eventually spreading east to the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula through Tuesday morning. Confidence on marine lightning
potential remains fairly low, so stay tuned to forecast updates as
models continue to come into better agreement and confidence
increases.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Just in case you were hoping for a major pattern change... not
yet. An active and relatively cool weather pattern remains in
place across Alaska through the end of the week as a broad
longwave through persists over the Mainland. Embedded shortwaves
rotating through the flow will continue to bring periods of rain
to much of Southwest and Southcentral Alaska through the longer
term period, with locally moderate rainfall possible where
stronger disturbances track inland. Temperatures are expected to
remain near to slightly below seasonal normals, with plenty of
cloud cover keeping conditions feeling cool. Inland winds
generally remain light, while breezier conditions persist along
the Gulf Coast and adjacent marine waters.

Farther west, ridging over the Bering Sea gradually shifts east as
a series of North Pacific lows approach. This will allow
increasing clouds, rain, and strengthening winds to spread
eastward across the Aleutians and Bering before eventually
expanding into western portions of the Mainland. The overall
pattern remains progressive, with little opportunity for prolonged
drying.

Forecast confidence decreases somewhat late in the week as
guidance continues to differ on the timing and track of additional
shortwaves and surface lows. Despite these differences, confidence
remains high in the overall unsettled pattern. Another North
Pacific low is excepted to move into the Gulf by late week,
maintaining widespread cloud cover and periods of rain across
Southern Alaska into Saturday, while additional showers linger
father inland. Gusty coastal winds will accompany the stronger
systems, particularly along the Gulf Coast and portions of the
Alaska Peninsula. Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool
side through the weekend as persistent cloud cover and recurring
rainfall continue across much of the state.

LM


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period
despite persistent cloud cover associated with an approaching
front. Southwesterly winds turn southeasterly this evening gusting
to 20 kts. The approaching front brings isolated rain showers to
the terminal this evening though more steady, widespread showers
arrive late tomorrow morning continuing through the day. MVFR
conditions are likely during this time as ceilings to drop to
around 5000 feet.

&&


$$