Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

792
FXAK68 PAFC 310018
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
418 PM AKDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* Stormy weather continues through late tonight, then a
  transition towards widespread showery conditions through the
  weekend. By Monday, another front pushes into Southcentral.

* High Wind Warning remains in effect for Cordova through 1 AM tonight.
  Winds will continue decreasing for all but Prince William Sound
  through the remainder of this evening.

* Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for Thompson Pass
  through 10 PM, and for Northern Susitna Valley (including Broad
  Pass) through 1 AM.

* Convective snow showers this weekend could lead to periods of
  reduced visibilities in heavy snow, especially for higher
  elevation roadways during the colder early morning or evening
  hours. Our primary area of concern is the Seward Highway from
  Primrose north to Turnagain Pass, though confidence is low with
  the timing of showers.

Discussion:

As mentioned in this morning`s discussion, this frontal system
(associated with the remnants of former Typhoon Champi) has
over-performed expectations from yesterday. Here are some of the
peak gusts that were observed over the past 24 hours: 79 mph in
Potter Valley (Anchorage), 73 mph in Glen Alps, 70 mph in Eagle
River, 69 mph in Palmer, 69 mph at Ted Stevens Airport, 67 mph in
Rabbit Creek (Anchorage), and 66 mph in Abbott Loop (Anchorage).
Precipitation amounts were about what was forecast, with 24 hour
rain totals of 3.30 inches in Seward, 2.62 inches at Cordova
Airport, and some measurements of as high as 4 to 5 inches at
higher elevation sites around Prince William Sound.

Satellite and radar imagery show the front gradually exiting
eastward this afternoon, with conditions forecast to improve from
west to east through late tonight. The High Wind Warning for
Cordova was extended to 1 AM tonight as the barrier jet is
forecast to stall for longer over the region, while the Winter
Weather Advisory for Northern Susitna Valley was extended to
account for additional moderate snow as weaker shortwaves move in
behind the front.

Looking ahead to this weekend, the main story will be widespread
convective showers as an upper level longwave trough and its
associated low move over Southcentral. The colder air and
bountiful vorticity associated with this feature will drive
robust showers, with the potential for periods of heavy snow
(especially in training showers) along higher elevation roadways
around Prince William Sound. Given all the various shortwaves
rotating around this upper low, it`ll be difficult to hone in on
the exact timing and placement of showers. Still, use caution and
be aware of the potential for sudden visibility reductions in
heavier showers if you`ll be traveling along the Seward Highway
this weekend. The other thing to watch for with this showery
weather pattern will be the potential for lightning in especially
robust convection.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Wind Advisory in effect for Unalaska/Nikolski through 10 AM
  AKDT Saturday morning

* Cold air from the north moves in behind the strong Bering low as
  it moves into the Gulf of Alaska for this weekend.

* Pattern remains active across the Bering and Aleutians this
  weekend and into the new work week. Low tracks look to be a
  little more southerly than this past week.

The strong Bering low is currently located in the Western Bering
Sea. This low will continue south and east and over the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) by this evening. Rain will continue across the
Aleutians, AKPEN, and Southwest and become more showery in nature
for this weekend with cold air moving in. Overall, the forecast
remains largely on track. The coastal flood advisory that was out
until Saturday morning was cancelled. There will be higher water
levels at the Saturday morning tide, but winds have diminished
significantly and the next tide will be lower than the Friday
morning tide.

For Saturday, a push of cold air moves into Southwest and the
AKPEN from the north and west. Temperatures will only make it to
the 30s and low 40s across the area, with the warmer temperatures
along the AKPEN and Bristol Bay coast. Rain showers will also
change over to rain/snow mix across the Kuskokwim Delta and Coast
Saturday and Saturday night.

Flow switches back to the south and southeast for Sunday ahead of
the next storm system moving across the Bering. Initially, on
Saturday, a North Pacific low tracks south of Kamchatka as its
gale-force front moves across Shemya and the western Bering
Saturday evening. The gale-force front spreads gusty southeasterly
winds to Adak/Atka Saturday night through Sunday morning before
making its way to the Pribilof Islands, Unalaska/Nikolski, and the
southern AKPEN by Sunday afternoon and evening. Light to moderate
rain will also accompany this front on its eastern journey across
the Bering this weekend. Behind the front, strong winds are
expected to wrap cooler air into the low. Gale force winds are
expected at this time to switch from southeasterly with
southwesterly. Stronger gusts above 55 kt will be possible. There
is a potential for storm force sustained winds or stronger Sunday
(30 to 40 percent).

The front and its gusty easterly to east-southeasterly winds
eventually make it to the coastal Southwest by Monday morning,
along with rain. Right now, this set up does not look conducive
for a coastal flooding threat along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast, due
in part to the more offshore/easterly component to the wind.
Continue to monitor the forecast for updates as the active
weather pattern continues to unfold.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The weather pattern will remain active through the long term as a
broad trough with numerous shortwaves remains over the Bering Sea
and far northern Pacific. Due to the abundance of shortwaves and
interactions along a broad baroclinic zone, models are struggling
to reach a consensus on the track of each respective
storm/shortwave as they move from the Chain into the Gulf. As
such, forecast confidence for the timing of strong winds and/or
rain remains low. Given then abundance of warm air from the
current system, and another warm and wet system on Tuesday, rain
remains the main precipitation type for most populated areas
throughout the southern Mainland and Aleutians. Modeled snow
levels are forecast to be between 1500 and 2500 ft, but due to the
large spread in storm track there is a large variation in which
areas may be cold enough to get snow. Overall, the forecast
remains noisy, but warmer than normal temperatures and areas of
rain will continue. In comparison to the current weather, impacts
such as wind and rain are more likely to be over the Aleutians,
Kodiak, the Alaska Peninsula and the Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind will persist
over the terminal through early Saturday morning with gusts of 25
to 40 mph, through around midnight. While wind are expected to
continue to slowly weaken through the overnight hours into
Saturday morning, occasional gusts to around 25 kt are likely to
remain over the terminal through Saturday morning.

Rain showers with MVFR ceilings are possible through this evening
with MVFR visibilities in heavier showers. The precipitation will
likely taper off by around midnight. However, another round of
scattered showers is likely by early Saturday morning. While VFR
conditions are expected to prevail during this time, any heavier
showers could result in brief periods of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities.


&&


$$