Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

307
FXAK68 PAFC 270026
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Sunday evening)...

The weather department across Southcentral Alaska remains
relatively status-quo as high pressure persists over the mainland
with low pressure in the Gulf. Northeast winds across the
Matanuska Valley have remained quite gusty today. These winds
should begin to slowly relax overnight tonight into Friday morning
as flow aloft turns more northerly and energy in the middle to
upper-levels weakens. Thompson Pass will remain somewhat gusty out
of the northeast through Saturday as pressure gradients remain a
little tighter down that way. Winds through Seward/Resurrection
Bay as well as Whittier/Passage Canal, while somewhat calm and
around 10 mph now, will increase tonight into Friday morning as
upper-level disturbances move through and the pressure gradients
re-tighten. Gap winds through those locations will diminish
through Saturday as pressure gradients weaken once more and remain
calm through Sunday. The cold airmass that has persisted over
Southcentral is forecast to eventually erode by the weekend`s end
and next week will hopefully see daytime highs across much of
Southcentral warm into the upper 30s.

Precipitation-wise, expect more of the same, at least initially,
through the first half of the weekend. A meso-low pressure system
is currently moving southeast through the western Gulf towards the
central Gulf. There is a trailing wave of moisture back to the
north of the meso-low between the southern Kenai Peninsula and
northern Kodiak Island (as of 12PM AKDT). This wave is expected to
pull southeastward through the overnight hours tonight and keep
most of Kodiak Island dry. Extreme northern portions of the island
could be clipped with some light snow showers this afternoon into
this evening. However, confidence is higher for all areas of
Kodiak Island remaining dry.

A Bering Sea front will look to spawn a triple-point low well
south of the Alaska Peninsula by Sunday morning. This low will
continue eastward in the open waters of the North Pacific through
the rest of Sunday. However, as the 500 mb trough becomes takes on
a more negative tilt, North Pacific moisture will be pulled back
the northwest and over Kodiak Island. Snow is likely for southern
Kodiak Island starting in the mid-morning to early afternoon
hours. Snow works its way north to Kodiak City by Sunday evening.
As of now, this looks mostly like a Kodiak Island system with very
little northern progression to rest of Southcentral, except some
snow showers along the southeastern Kenai Mountains.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Generally expect a stormier trend as we head into the weekend,
with rain or rain changing to snow for the Bering Sea and Aleutian
Islands region, and light snow for Southwest Alaska. While some
forecast questions remain, no significant hazards are expected at
this time.

Diving into the details... the upper level pattern currently
features a low near the southern tip of Kamchatka Peninsula, a
ridge extending across much of the Bering Sea, and a broad low in
the Gulf of Alaska. Over the next few days, the low near Kamchatka
will push eastwards, displacing the ridge and bringing an end to
the mostly clear and cold conditions for much of Southwest Alaska,
the Alaska Peninsula, and Eastern Bering Sea. The good news is
that the low will be occluding as it moves across the Bering Sea;
as such, expect winds to remain below gale force.

Still, warm air and moisture advected with this system will bring
periods of light precipitation. Most areas will likely see minor
accumulations by Saturday night. Given the current track of the
low and forecast temperatures, the Aleutian Islands should see
either all rain or snow changing to rain. Confidence is lower
regarding precipitation type for the Pribilof Islands and Southern
Alaska Peninsula, which may see a mix of rain and snow. The
remainder of the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska will likely
see precipitation remain all snow, and light accumulations on the
order of a handful of inches on Saturday. There is a chance of
blowing snow along the Y-K Delta and Western Capes Saturday into
Sunday as the front moves on shore.

-KC/CJ

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday - Thursday)...

A low pressure system will bring snow to the AK Peninsula on
Monday before transitioning into the Gulf of Alaska. Models are in
reasonable agreement that a relatively strong low will approach
the Aleutians from the north Pacific on Tuesday, bringing rain
strong gale-force easterly winds to much of the chain before the
system slides east and weakens. Otherwise, much of the southern
mainland Alaska will remain dry during this time.

After an extended period of very cold weather, temperatures
approach values near climatologically average as areas warm into
the 30s for high temps through the first half of the week for much
of southern mainland Alaska.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and northerly winds will persist.

&&


$$