Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

306
FXAK68 PAFC 120124
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKST Sun Jan 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Multiple bands of precipitation over Southcentral has made
visibilities range from 1 to 6 miles today. Widespread freezing
drizzle was reported throughout the day in the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley resulting in difficult driving
conditions. Snow was reported with the freezing drizzle at times
in the Susitna Valley this morning though it quickly changed to
all snow mid-morning. The precipitation in the Kenai Peninsula and
Anchorage Bowl continues to move northward this afternoon and
ends by early this evening. Overnight, weak bands of precipitation
will move over these regions bringing light snow through tomorrow
morning in the Susitna Valley before tapering off.

A dry Monday across Southcentral brings the return of cooler
temperatures. Light snow returns for Prince William Sound and
eastern Kenai Peninsula Tuesday. Stronger storms that could bring
accumulating snow are possible mid-week into next weekend across
Southcentral.

-DJ

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Key Messages:

* A resurgence of cold air will bring bitterly cold conditions and
  wind chills to Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula through
  about Thursday. Cold Weather Advisories and an Extreme Cold
  Warning are in effect.
* Gusty northerly winds and snow showers continue across the
  Aleutian and Pribilof Islands, leading to minor visibility
  reductions in blowing snow.
* Extreme freezing spray continues along the sea ice edge but will
  gradually reduce in severity as winds diminish below gale force.

The main concern with the short term forecast continues to be the
cold. A large Arctic trough is over Southwest Alaska, keeping
temperatures far below 0 in most locations. Out over the Bering,
the cold air flowing over the warmer water temperatures is
creating some kind of an ocean-effect snow effect, allowing for
snow showers across the Pribilof Islands and the Aleutians. These
showers are expected to taper off a bit from the west as high
pressure builds in and brings warmer air Monday into Tuesday
morning.

This, however, will be short lived as another Arctic trough
pushes south into the Southwest Mainland and the Bering Tuesday
afternoon and creates more snow showers over the Pribilof and
Aleutian Islands. This second push of Arctic air will drive
ambient temperatures 20 to 30F below zero in the mainland and into
the single digits over the Pribilof Islands and the Alaska
Peninsula around Cold Bay. Wind chills are making temperatures
feel even colder with the lowest wind chills (-40s to -50s) being
seen in the mainland. Due to the bitterly cold wind chills, Cold
Weather Advisories are out for the Southwest Mainland including
the Alaska Peninsula, with an Extreme Cold Warning out for the
Port Heiden area due to a lower temperature criteria. There is
potential that wind chills may be a bit lower than what`s
currently in the forecast; models are trending towards lower air
temperatures, and forecast wind speeds may be bumped up as
confidence grows with the low pressure systems swirling around in
the North Pacific. As such, it`s not out of the question that
additional zones may be upgraded from a Cold Weather Advisory to
an Extreme Cold Warning.

Looking ahead to the end of the week has the potential for a
North Pacific low riding along an atmospheric river up into
Southwest Alaska. This would dramatically warm temperatures to
near or slightly above freezing across Southwest Alaska due to
warm air advection that would accompany the low. A large amount of
precipitation would also fall due to the large fetch of moisture
being brought up. There is much uncertainty with this scenario, so
stay tuned for updates.

-JAR/KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

All eyes are on the next big storm system to emerge from the
North Pacific over the latter half of the week. Deterministic
models have not been the most helpful, with the EC, GFS and
Canadian in little agreement with each other, and often each model
disagreeing with itself from run to run. An area of low pressure
moves up the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday morning, tracking into
the eastern Sound or just east over the Copper River Delta by
Wednesday afternoon. Behind the low an amplified pattern develops
over the western Gulf and AKPEN, with what will be a long fetch of
southerly flow and moisture (an atmospheric river) streaming into
Southcentral Wednesday night. Warming temperatures could spell
precipitation type issues for the region. A mix of rain, freezing
rain, and snow will all be possible Thursday night into Friday as
a second wave of low pressure rides up the atmospheric river and
pivots northwestward into Bristol Bay or possibly further west. A
secondary concern will be for potential high winds as the
deepening low tracks from the southeastern Bering northward across
Nunivak Island. Ensemble model guidance has been a little bit
more consistent with a deepening upper low over the Bering. The EC
ensemble is further east than the GEFS, but both solutions will
bear close monitoring over the coming days.

-BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The chance of snow and freezing drizzle should mostly be
over by late this afternoon. One of the lingering questions is
whether the ceilings will begin to lift to VFR levels, or if the
stable air in the wake of the outgoing system will bring in IFR
ceilings this evening. Generally light northerly winds should
persist through Monday.

&&


$$