Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

761
FXAK68 PAFC 190124
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 PM AKST Wed Feb 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Saturday)...

Fast zonal flow is in place across the Alaska region. A weak
positively tilted short-wave trough is approaching Southcentral
this afternoon, with areas of light snow out ahead of it. There
have also been reports (and indications on webcams) of light
freezing drizzle today. However, with deeper moisture aloft
arriving with the trough, expect snow will be the prevailing
precipitation-type. The leading trough will quickly cross
Southcentral this evening and exit eastward overnight. Upslope
flow and weak cold air advection behind the trough could maintain
some very light snow or freezing drizzle along the west sides of
mountain ranges. A second larger short-wave trough over the
northern Bering Sea will amplify as it approaches Southcentral
late tonight through Thursday morning. This will also help prolong
light snow along the west side of mountains through Thursday
morning - and all the way through Thursday afternoon for portions
of the Copper River Basin.

As precipitation ends, all attention will shift to a cold and
windy pattern. The large scale pattern will continue to amplify
through Friday, with a ridge in the Bering Sea and a trough over
mainland AK and the Gulf. Tomorrow morning`s short-wave will dig
southeastward into the Gulf, with much colder Arctic air pouring
southward (-20 to -25 degrees Celsius at 850mb). A surface low
will form over the northeast Gulf and help tighten up pressure
gradients. As the atmospheric flow becomes oriented N-S Thursday
night, additional vorticity maxima embedded in the flow will drop
southward across Southcentral into the Gulf, helping to enhance
the strength of winds at the surface. Even colder air will advect
into interior Southcentral (as cold as -25 to -30 degrees Celsius
at 850mb).

While most of the region will experience gusty northerly winds the
next couple days, the strongest winds by far will be found along
the coast and much of the Gulf coastal waters as winds accelerate
offshore and through bays and passes. Beginning with the first
surge of Arctic air from the northwest tomorrow - Kodiak Island,
the western Gulf, and Seward/Whittier areas will be favored for
the strongest winds. This will gradually shift to Valdez/Thompson
Pass and the Copper River Delta Friday Multiple wind products have
been issued to highlight the strong winds expected, with some
potential to reach the high wind threshold (75 mph)in Kodiak City
and Thompson Pass. There is some uncertainty in exactly how strong
winds will get. Kodiak will be right along the western edge of
the digging trough, so any shift will affect the winds. Meanwhile,
for Valdez and Thompson Pass by the time the upper flow becomes
really favorable for high winds, the bulk of cold air advection
has passed and the surface low in the Gulf is quickly exiting.
Still, the thermal and pressure gradients between Valdez and the
Copper Valley look impressive and passage of any vorticity maximum
or short-wave trough could be just enough to produce high winds.
Stay tuned as we continue to fine-tune the wind forecast.

Meanwhile, temperature sand wind chills will steadily fall over
the next couple days. By Saturday morning, expect widespread
temperatures below zero inland and in the single digits along the
coast. Though winds will be diminishing most places by Saturday,
wherever wind lingers wind chills will be well below zero. As it
typical, the Copper River Basin can expect some of the coldest
temperatures, with wind chills of -40 to -50 degrees possible by
this weekend.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

A cold front continues to move eastward across Bristol Bay and
the Kuskokwim Valley through this afternoon and into the early
evening. Earlier this morning, Dillingham reported freezing rain
with this system before colder air worked in and turned
precipitation over to snow before ending. The heaviest snow is
currently falling from Iliamna northward to along the Western
Alaska Range. Both Iliamna and Sparrevohn reported visibilities as
low as one-half mile around noon today. All precipitation winds
down across interior Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley this
evening. Another wave of precipitation moves across the Kuskokwim
Delta tonight through early Thursday morning with additional light
snow. As this system moves out, cold air starts advecting in
behind it. The strongest cold air advection will occur Friday. As
a result, expect gusty winds to increase through the favored gaps,
bays, and passes; especially through the Alaska Peninsula. Storm-
force northwesterly winds with hurricane- force gusts are
expected through the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) marine zones just to
the south of Kodiak Island Friday morning. Winds will begin to
diminish starting Friday evening as the upper jet weakens and cold
air advection ceases. Aside from the gusty winds through the
AKPEN, expect a mostly quiet weather period across mainland
Southwest Alaska Friday and Saturday.

Farther out west, warm air advection from the south will ensue
across the western and Central Bering starting Thursday. A
tropical moisture tap will also accompany this warm push. The
first of a series of wet systems will lift north over the Western
Aleutians and western Bering Sea starting Thursday. Storm-force
winds are likely across extreme western portions of the Bering
Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Light to moderate
rain is also likely across Shemya Thursday and Friday. The next
shot of moisture arrives from the south Friday evening with rain
making it farther eastward over Adak and Atka Friday night and
Saturday. Gale-force southerly to southeasterly winds will
continue across the western and central Bering Friday through at
least Saturday morning as the pressure gradient remains somewhat
tight between the strong ridge over the eastern Bering and
Southwest Alaska and a low pressure system near Kamchatka.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Sunday through
Wednesday)...

An upper level trough moves south into the Gulf of Alaska Sunday,
transitioning the pattern toward a more amplified regime. Ridging
builds over the Bering while troughing persists over the Gulf,
allowing a colder airmass to spread across Southwest and into
Southcentral Alaska.

Conditions trend drier Sunday into the early start of the week as
the ridge strengthens inland. Northerly flow develops through
Southcentral, bringing clearing skies and radiational cooling
overnight. Expect colder nighttime temperatures, with interior
valleys falling into single digits, while coastal areas remain
mainly in the teens. Daytime highs generally range from the teens
to lower 20s.

Winds will favor northerly to northeasterly directions through
gaps and higher terrain. Gusty outflow winds are possible in wind
prone locations, especially Sunday night into Monday, while
lighter winds could prevail across interior portions of the
Anchorage Bowl.

By late Monday into Tuesday, the ridge shifts east as a new low
moves into the Bering Sea. Increasing cloud cover spreads eastward
with temperatures moderating slightly. Precipitation chances begin
returning to western Alaska first, with a low confidence chance of
snow reaching portions of Southcentral by Wednesday.

The pattern becomes more unsettled midweek as the next system
approaches from the west. Confidence in the exact timing and
snowfall amounts remains low.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the most of
the night. Periods of light snow ahead of an advancing cold
front may bring occasional IFR conditions through mid evening.
Low stratus, along with the potential for some light freezing
drizzle and/or flurries, will remain over the terminal overnight
tonight. Conditions are then expected to improve by late Thursday
morning as colder air moves in along with gusty northerly winds
developing Thursday afternoon.

&&

$$