Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 090013
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 PM AKDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Friday)...

A front continues to lift north towards the northern Gulf coast
this afternoon and evening as the upper level trough and surface
low shifts east into the Gulf. For the western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and the MatSu, shower activity may linger through this
evening before southwesterly flow aloft shifts to northerly as the
trough axis passes to the east. The bulk of precipitation is
still expected to fall along the immediate coast along the eastern
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound, but is expected to
diminish overnight tonight through Thursday morning as the surface
low tracks east towards the panhandle. Similarly, any showers
able to spill north over the mountains into the Copper River Basin
diminish through Thursday morning.

Dry conditions and clearing skies work in from west to east
throughout the day on Thursday as the low exits the area and
ridging builds in from the west. An increase in north-
northwesterly winds aloft and troughing in the eastern Gulf will
lead to an uptick in northerly offshore gap winds picking up
Thursday afternoon lasting into the weekend. A dissipating front
tracking east across Southwest Alaska may bring a brief period of
light precipitation to Kodiak Island and the western Kenai
Peninsula Friday afternoon before ridging builds back over the
region for Saturday.

-JH

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Precipitation has tapered off over Southwest Alaska as low
pressure moves east, but remaining surface moisture and high
pressure building in over the region will keep fog and low stratus
present in many low lying areas through tonight. Aside from this,
expect relatively benign weather for the next 24 hours.

A front extending off a Kamchatka low is currently making its way
toward the central Aleutians/Bering Sea, bringing widespread
precipitation and gale force winds. The front begins to weaken
rather quickly as it reaches the Pribilofs tomorrow morning, with
winds diminishing to small craft. Precipitation will spread across
the Eastern Aleutians as rain and into the Kuskokwim Delta as
snow or a rain/snow mix by late Thursday afternoon. Light
precipitation will spill over into the rest of Southwest Alaska
throughout Thursday night and early Friday morning. With the front
rapidly shearing apart as is reaches mainland Alaska, snow
accumulation will be light with 1 to 2 inches expected for the
Kuskokwim Delta and 0.5 to 1.5 inches for Bristol Bay. Yet another
broad low pressure system entering the Bering Sea will bring
snowfall to Southwest AK and the Alaska Peninsula on Saturday and
Sunday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...


The long term begins on Sunday with a continuation of the
amplified upper-level weather pattern consisting of a trough
digging across the eastern half of the Bering and a ridge
downstream extending the northeastern Pacific northward across the
Al-Can border.

By Sunday, there is already some notable differences between the
various deterministic model runs, although all do show a digging
upper-level trough with its axis extended south over the Alaska
Peninsula. The biggest difference is in the placement of two
shortwave troughs embedded within the flow near the base of the
longwave trough. The GFS has a more pronounced wave lifting north
across western Alaska with the ridge downstream slightly stronger
and more stationary. This lends to a second shortwave digging
farther south across the AKPen and developing a much stronger
surface low closer to Kodiak than the ECMWF and Canadian solutions
which have a weaker wave and weaker, faster moving low in the
Gulf.

By Monday, this upper-level wave is moving east toward the Alaska
Panhandle. Again, guidance diverges on the exact track of the
associated surface low, with the GFS solution keeping a stronger
low centered over the central Gulf and the ECMWF and Canadian
solutions showing a weaker low somewhere along northern Gulf coast
between Cordova and Yakutat. Nonetheless, the result will be an
increase in gap winds for the AKPen, Kodiak Island, and the BArren
Islands in the wake of the low as colder air advects southeast
from the eastern Bering.

By late Monday, expect a repeat of the weather pattern, with a
transient upper-level ridge upstream moving over the state for
late Monday into Tuesday as another area of low pressure develops
near Kamchatka with its front moving quickly across the Bering
Sea Tuesday and into Southwest Alaska for Wednesday as the
amplified pattern becomes a bit more zonal.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...A slight chance of isolated showers along the mountains is
expected until this evening as the trough moves through the
region. Otherwise, mostly cloudy with VFR conditions throughout
the rest of the afternoon and overnight hours. Low stratus may
develop in the Inlet tomorrow morning as high pressure builds in
from the west, but if it does, it should be short lived with the
April sun helping to break it up by late morning.

&&


$$