Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

432
FXAK68 PAFC 081346
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
446 AM AKST Sun Nov 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

Key Messages:

* Impactful storm system set to affect Southcentral Alaska Monday
  into Tuesday

* Winter Storm Watches issued for the Eastern Kenai Peninsula,
  Western Prince William Sound, Thompson Pass, and Ernestine from
  Monday morning through Tuesday afternoon.

Current satellite this morning shows mostly high clouds across
Southcentral Alaska. However, where there are breaks in the
clouds, low stratus and pockets of mist and fog have been able to
form. Palmer, Portage, Gulkana, Eureka, and portions of the
Western Kenai are contending with these lower cloud ceilings.
Kodiak will remain showery through today as a weak area of low
pressure remains nearly stationary in the vicinity of the island.

Attention quickly turns to what will become an active period in
the weather department for the new work week. An area of low
pressure in the North Pacific will send its front into the
southern Gulf of Alaska by tonight. The precipitation out ahead of
the front reaches Kodiak Island, the Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and
Western Prince William Sound late tonight into Monday morning.
Precipitation will likely start off as snow for places like Kodiak
City, Seward, and Portage/Whittier. Warm air works in along the
Gulf Coast Monday evening and Monday night which should allow
precipitation to mix with and change over to rain. However, on the
Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat-Su Valleys, cold air
at the surface could hang on into Tuesday morning. This would
allow for a mix of snow and freezing rain to develop and even a
period of plain freezing rain to develop. The question will be how
much precipitation will make it over the mountains.

Comparing guidance, the RRFS guidance has been and continues to
be the northern outlier regarding the storm track through the
Gulf. This model continues to take the system over Montague Island
and across the Susitna Valley Tuesday. Meanwhile, the GFS,
European, and Canadian guidance all have the storm center farther
south from the Southern Kenai Peninsula, to the Barren Islands.
This forecast package, like previous forecast packages, continues
to advertise the farther south solution. This farther south
solution is also the warmer solution too, which introduces the
freezing rain potential across the area.

With that, and with increased confidence in impacts across
portions of the forecast area, Winter Storm Watches have been
issued. A Winter Storm Watch for blizzard conditions has been
issued to for Thompson Pass from 10AM AKST Monday morning through
4PM AKST Tuesday morning. Northerly winds will pick up through the
Pass starting Monday morning. At the same time, a round of light
snow will occur. This round of snow will taper off Monday
afternoon. However, heavier snow is likely Monday night through
Tuesday morning along with northeasterly wind gusts as high as 45
mph. A Winter Storm Watch has also been issued for Ernestine from
10AM AKST Monday morning through 10AM Tuesday morning for heavy
mixed precipitation. On the north side of Thompson Pass, warmer
air could work in aloft and allow freezing rain to mix in with
snow Tuesday morning. Highest snowfall totals and ice totals will
be along the north side of Thompson Pass with lower totals north
towards Tonsina. A Winter Storm Watch has also been issued for the
Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound from
10AM AKST Monday through 4PM AKST Tuesday. The main story here
will be some snow at the onset that will transition to a wintry
mix of snow and freezing rain and eventually to plain rain by late
Tuesday morning as winds become turn from east-northeast to east-
southeast by then. Speaking of winds, they could be quite strong,
especially through Whittier and Eastern Turnagain Arm with gusts
between 55 to 70 mph Tuesday morning. These winds diminish through
Tuesday afternoon.

In addition to the strong winds through Whittier and Eastern
Turnagain Arm, winds will also be gusty out of the northeast
through the Matanuska Valley into Palmer and Wasilla Monday and
Tuesday. Gusts will peak near 50 mph early Tuesday morning before
winds begin to diminish through the rest Tuesday morning. There
will also be strong northeasterly down-inlet winds, some of which
may clip portions of the coastal Cook Inlet communities of the Western
Kenai Peninsula Monday and Tuesday.

The storm winds down through Tuesday afternoon and evening as
winds come down across the Gulf and gap winds relax across
Southcentral. Additional precipitation is likely across the coast
of the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound
Tuesday night into Wednesday as additional weak shortwaves lift
across the Gulf. Stay tuned as the forecast is fine-tuned and
updated with regards to the storm for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Little change to the previous forecast package as the relatively
quiet weather pattern continues across Southwest Alaska and the
Bering Sea heading into early this week. A widespread low to mid
level stratus deck continues to blanket Southwest Alaska early
this morning and is likely to persist through the remainder of
today. A weak low pressure system south of Kodiak Island in the
Gulf has brought a few snow showers along the northern Alaska
Peninsula and along the western Alaska Range overnight, with any
remaining snow showers tapering off through this morning. Farther
west across the Bering and the Aleutians, weak flow and scattered
showers continue through early this week. Chances for showers
across the western Aleutians mainly falling as rain or rain/snow
mix increase for today as a weak low tracks east in the North
Pacific south of the Aleutian Chain.

By late Tuesday, a gale-force front associated with a North
Pacific low lifts north towards the western Aleutians. This system
is expected to bring widespread gusty winds and precipitation
likely in the form of rain from the western Aleutians to Adak and
Atka Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with confidence
increasing for a period of gale-force winds for Adak and Atka.
Confidence on the storm track remains fairly low as model spread
increases by midweek, with some solutions pushing the low into the
southern Bering while others keep it south of the Chain as it
shifts eastward. Stay tuned for any updates as it looks like this
will break our temporary quiet weather pattern.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term is characterized by lows moving into the Bering and
from the west and from the North Pacific. These lows will bring
active weather to Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska.
Wednesday starts off with a North Pacific low moving into the
Bering. Gale to storm force winds and moderate to heavy rain over
the Aleutians accompanies this low. Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska
sees lingering light rain and snow for coastal regions and Kodiak
Island with inland areas remaining drier. Thursday sees the low
move eastward, bringing winds and rain to Southcentral Alaska
while the back end of the low allows for continued winds and
rain/snow over the Aleutians and AKPEN. Friday has the low move
into the Gulf of Alaska with continued rain/snow and winds for
coastal Southcentral Alaska. A ridge builds over the Bering,
leading to drier and calmer conditions over much of Southwest
Alaska. However, northerly flow allows for gap winds in the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula areas. Also, another low
moves into the Shemya area from the west, bringing another round
of gusty winds and rainfall.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Light and variable winds early this morning will become
light northerly to northeasterly through the day,generally
remaining below 5 kt. Winds will increase out of the north Monday
morning, with gusts up to 20 kt possible. VFR conditions are
expected to continue through Monday.

LM

&&


$$