Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

981
FXAK68 PAFC 170034
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The vertically stacked low continues to spin in the central Gulf
as it slowly progresses northeastwards towards Southeast Alaska
through the weekend. The diminishing of showers along the coast
early this afternoon will be short-lived as the next shortwave
trough rotating along the northern periphery of the low reaches
the Gulf coast by late this afternoon. Shower coverage is expected
to pick back up through Saturday morning for the northern Gulf
coast and Prince William Sound with the arrival of the shortwave
and as the low center nears the coast. Any lingering chances of
precipitation for inland areas continues to decrease through this
evening, with mainly dry conditions expected through Sunday as
off-shore flow takes over. Snow levels will stay fairly consistent
around 2500` as the low translates across the Gulf, so will still
see rain changing over to snow at higher elevations while showers
still persist.

A weak front will move across the Alaska interior Saturday
morning. Colder northwesterly flow will help to dry things out,
but models are hinting that the front could squeeze out some light
precipitation of the Upper Susitna and Copper Basin. However,
overall confidence is low (20-40%) that any precipitation out of
this frontal passage will amount to anything too impactful. Cooler
temperatures will move in behind this system with low
temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s for most of inland
Southcentral for Sunday morning.

Looking ahead to early next week, a Bering Sea low will send its
front into the Gulf, bringing an uptick in winds across the Gulf
and along the coast for Monday. Model spread remains fairly high
with regards to a potential triple-point low spinning up in the
Gulf, but expect precipitation to begin to overspread Kodiak
Island and the eastern Kenai by early Monday.

-JH/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Showery conditions will taper off across Southwest Alaska tonight
and the Alaska Peninsula as residual low pressure dissipates over
the area. Rain is expected to be the primary precipitation type
during the daytime hours, however, overnight temperatures may dip
below freezing, allowing for any precipitation to fall as snow or
a rain/snow mix. A slowly decaying front producing southerly small
craft winds and light rain currently situated over Adak will push
eastward this evening, reaching the Pribilofs and Unalaska by
Saturday morning. Benign conditions expected through most of the
weekend for Southwest Alaska until the next front moves in Sunday
afternoon.

By Saturday afternoon, the front, then situated over Unimak
Island and False Pass, will be significantly diminishing in
strength. However, behind it, a developing compact low from the
North Pacific will track northeast, passing the Adak and Atka area
Saturday morning. As it catches up to the degrading front, the
features will merge in the Central Bering and continue to press
the weakening ridge downstream toward Southwest Alaska. Expect a
return to wet and windy weather over Unalaska to Pribilofs by
Saturday evening. Saturday will be relatively quiet for Southwest
Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, this new Bering system will reach
the Southwest coast where rain, snow, and south to southeasterly
flow returns. As moisture spreads inland, expect areas of interior
Southwest to receive more snow than rain, given the cooler
temperatures built up. Through Monday, areas such as Sleetmute and
Crooked Creek may get 1 to 4 inches of snow. Confidence on this
is still low-to-moderate (30% to 50%) given the dependency on
local temperatures, so stay tuned.

Out west, a lobe of tropical energy will be swinging up into the
Western Aleutians, bringing up the chance for isolated
thunderstorms over Shemya and Attu as well as the surrounding
marine areas. This energy is expected to shift northward into the
Western Bering and dissipate through Sunday night into Monday
morning.

-CL/KM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The seasonably active weather pattern in the Gulf continues
through the long term period, with a fairly inactive pattern
poised for the Bering. By Tuesday morning, a decaying surface low
along the northern Gulf coastline will continue to bring gusty
easterly winds and rain to the area. For the Alaska Peninsula,
Bristol Bay, and inland Southcentral locations, expect unsettled
and showery weather to continue through early next week as weak
shortwaves rotate through the upper level flow. Additionally,
gusty northerly winds enhanced by cold air advection on the back
side of the low will be possible across the eastern Aleutian
Islands and AK Peninsula, especially through favored gaps and
passes.

By mid to late next week, a more impactful storm is expected to
build in the southern Gulf/northern Pacific, entering our area
south of the Alaska Peninsula. Widespread rainfall and
strengthening winds are expected to spread across the Gulf of
Alaska including Kodiak Island. In the Bering by Wednesday
afternoon, there is quite a large spread in model solutions, with
the GFS suggesting a 995 mb gale-force low over the Central
Aleutians, and the Canadian and EC solutions suggesting a 1024 mb
ridge blocking all active weather in the area at that time. By
Thursday, this contended low may shift into the Gulf, bringing
another round of winds and rain to Southcentral, while other
solutions are spreading the high pressure ridge at that time. Both
solutions suggest a new frontal system entering the westernmost
Bering/Aleutians by Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Stay
tuned as we continue to monitor this system and the progression of
guidance.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through this
evening. Cooling temperatures and clearing skies overnight could
allow for formation of low stratus late tonight into Saturday
morning, possibly bringing ceilings into MVFR range or lower.
Confidence in the development of low stratus is still relatively
low, and low cloud formation will depend on the degree of clearing
of upper level cloud cover tonight into early Saturday.

&&


$$