Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

623
FXAK68 PAFC 120101
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
401 PM AKST Wed Nov 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Saturday)...

A long-wave trough is firmly entrenched over the Bering Sea and
Alaska, anchored by a closed low circulation over the eastern
Bering Sea. A plethora of short-wave troughs are tracking from the
Aleutians to the Gulf and then curving northward into Southcentral.
Currently, a deep compact gale force surface low is spinning
south of Seward, with areas of light rain from Cordova and Valdez
across Prince William Sound to the Kenai Peninsula and Turnagain
Arm/Girdwood. Some very light rain is also making it westward to
Homer and the southwest Kenai Peninsula. After some freezing rain
this morning along the Seward Highway from Turnagain Pass to
Summit Lake, temperatures have warmed above freezing for most of
the Kenai Peninsula. Conditions are quiet inland, with sub-
freezing temperatures and some mid to high clouds.

The overall environment remains favorable for freezing rain from
the western Kenai Peninsula north to Anchorage and vicinity, with
a prominent warm nose noted in the Anchorage sounding. The low
south of Seward will track west-northwest across the Kenai
Peninsula this evening and then rapidly dissipate in Cook Inlet
overnight into early Thursday morning. Light precipitation will
spread westward with the low, first to the western Kenai this
evening and up to Anchorage by late this evening into the
overnight hours. While temperatures right now are above freezing
across the western Kenai, they will likely drop back down close to
freezing, leading to the threat of freezing rain. Temperatures are
a few degrees cooler in Anchorage, so the threat of light freezing
rain is greater. In fact, some roads remain slick from the
freezing rain the other day. There is come uncertainty in the
northern edge of precipitation tonight, setting up somewhere near
Eagle River/Birchwood. Winter Weather Advisories have been
hoisted for the western Kenai and Anchorage for slick roads due
to freezing rain. Precipitation will end in the early morning, but
temperatures could fall below freezing after that, meaning roads
will likely remain slick through the morning commute.

Gusty east to southeast winds will develop behind the low,
enhanced by pressure rises. The strongest winds will impact gaps
along the eastern Kenai, including Resurrection Bay/Seward,
Passage Canal/Whittier, and Turnagain Arm. Some wind may bend into
south to west Anchorage Thursday morning, which will help
temperature rise into the mid to upper 30s.

Meanwhile, additional upper level short-waves will track toward
eastern Prince William Sound, maintaining steady rain for Cordova
and Valdez. Most of Southcentral will dry out Thursday night as
there is a break in short-waves and low level flow shifts to
northerly in response to a deep Pacific low moving into the
northeast Pacific. The exception will be Kodiak Island, where a
trough axis will set up shop and bring steady precipitation
Thursday night through Friday night or Saturday. The air aloft
looks cold enough for snow. However, some models indicate a meso-
scale low just east of Kodiak Island. This could introduce flow
off the Gulf and lead to just enough warm air to produce a mix of
rain and snow for Kodiak City and other Gulf coast locations. In
any case, even if it does fall as all snow, temperatures will be
near freezing and the snow will be fairly wet. Thus, several
inches of wet accumulation are possible, with much higher amounts
as you head up in elevation.

As we head to Saturday, a warm front extending north from the
aforementioned low in the Northeast Pacific will track westward
across the Gulf as an upper level short-wave approaches from the
Bering. This is favorable for a "deformation band" of heavier
precipitation. It`s too early to say exactly where that will set
up, but right now model guidance mostly favors the Kenai
Peninsula, with some potential that precipitation reaches
Anchorage. Precipitation will also be a challenge as precipitation
first arrives, though with warming from the east would expect a
snow to rain transition.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The forecast continues to remain on track for the short term.
Northerly flow persists across the Bering, which is continuing to
advect in colder temperatures in the lower to mid levels. In
response to the added instability from cooler air moving in aloft,
convective snow showers are visible on satellite moving from
north to south across the Bering. Meanwhile, a gale force North
Pacific low is moving south of the Aleutian Chain, but some mid to
upper level cloud cover can be seen on satellite as far north as
Unalaska. Though there were a couple of observations earlier this
morning of precipitation for Unalaska, the bulk of the
precipitation will most likely stay south of the Aleutian Chain
and Alaska Peninsula as this system continues its trek eastward
into the southern Gulf by Thursday morning. Expect northwesterly
small craft gap winds for the eastern half of the Aleutian Chain
and Alaska Peninsula as this system departs.

Both global models and hi-res models want to bring in light snow
for the lower Kuskokwim Valley and Bristol Bay areas for Thursday
morning, with its associated moisture tied to a low in the
northern Gulf affecting Southcentral Alaska. This period of snow
will be short lived and will begin to taper by midday Thursday,
but light snowfall accumulations of 0.5 to 2 inches are expected.

By Friday morning, two additional systems of interest move into
the region. First, a second North Pacific low (possibly tracking
farther south than the first low) skirts well south of the
Aleutian Chain, though will most likely renew northwesterly gap
winds for the Central Aleutians. With this low on track to drive
farther south than the first low, these gap winds will be weaker
than the winds associated with the first low. The second system of
note will be moving across the Western Aleutians in the form of a
high end small craft to gale force front late Friday as its
parent low stays closer to the Russian coast. The latest models
show this front moving eastward across the north-central Bering
Sea by Saturday afternoon with a round of westerly high end small
crafts and gales for the Central Aleutians and southern Bering.

-AM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Troughing continues into early next week over Southern Alaska and
the Bering. Multiple lows will move through the forecast area
through the middle of next week, resulting in a more unsettled
weather pattern.

By Sunday morning, a low pressure system looks track into the
southeastern Gulf while another slightly weaker look is positioned
in the central Bering. The Gulf low looks to track close to the
Panhandle while the Bering low continues east towards the Alaska
Peninsula. On Sunday evening, a triple point low looks to develop
south of the Alaska Peninsula and track to near Kodiak Island on
Monday. This triple point low becomes the primary low as both the
Bering low and eastern Gulf low congeal into it on Monday. The low
stalls over Kodiak Island Monday night, then moves into the Gulf
Tuesday and dissipates by Wednesday morning.

Scattered snow showers look to continue across the Bering,
Aleutians, and Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday as cold air
continues to stream in around the Bering low. There is a 40 to 60
percent chance these snow showers expand across the rest of
Southwest Alaska Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning, otherwise
most of Southwest looks to remain dry early next week as
precipitation stays offshore. Precipitation looks to taper off for
Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon as the
low moves into the Gulf. For Southcentral, warmer air streams in
from the northern Pacific ahead of the triple point low. This will
lead to high chances of rain along the northern Gulf Coast and
lower elevations of Kodiak Island through Tuesday. For the
western Kenai, Anchorage, and places further inland, chances for
precipitation are lower. Additionally, cooler air looks to remain
in place further inland as well. With this cooler air, confidence
is low for what type of precipitation will fall for the western
Kenai, Anchorage and the Mat-Su Sunday-Tuesday as conditions look
to favor more of a rain/snow mix. With even colder temperatures
in the Upper Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin, any precip
that manages to move over those locations through the middle of
next week will be snow.

The strongest low looks to impact the western Aleutians and
Bering as it moves out of the northwest Pacific starting Monday
afternoon. Confidence is high that this low deepens to at least
960 mb by Wednesday and has strong winds around it as it moves
across the Bering. Precipitation will likely be a rain/snow mix
on the east side of the low and mostly snow on the west side of
the low. Confidence is still low with the exact track of the low
as, by Wednesday morning, models have it positioned somewhere
between the eastern Aleutians and Saint Matthew Island. Where the
low tracks will also have an effect on potential hazards the low
brings. A more southern track has the strongest winds moving
through the Aleutian Chain, while a more northern track raises
concerns for potential coastal flooding along the Southwest Coast
Tuesday into Wednesday. Positioning of this low should become
more clear in the coming days.

- PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC....VFR conditions are expected into the evening, with light
northerly winds. A storm currently south of Seward will push some
light precipitation, mostly likely in the form of rain or freezing
rain, into the Terminal between 9pm and 3am. Accumulations will
remain light with surface temperatures between 28 and 33 degrees.
Cigs may drop to MVFR but shouldn`t drop into in IFR range due to
some cross barrier winds over the mountains. For tomorrow, some
rain and snow showers are possible, but conditions should improve
back to VFR with a brief Turnagain Arm wind possible around 18Z.

&&

$$