Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

457
FXAK68 PAFC 061256
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 AM AKDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Little change to the short-term forecast...

Water vapor imagery this morning shows the vertically stacked low
beginning to exit the far southern Gulf of Alaska while a
shortwave trough begins to make its way toward the Copper River
Basin, moving east to west in the flow between the low and a stout
upper-level ridge over northern Alaska. Precipitation lingers
from Cordova south and west across the Gulf this morning. A few
isolated showers also linger over the Talkeetna Mountains and far
western Susitna Valley. Farther east, shower activity across the
southern Copper River Basin is more scattered due to the advancing
shortwave.

Today continues to look more active, in terms of convective
potential, as northeasterly flow develops across Southcentral in
between the departing low and the building ridge to the north over
the Interior. This will help drag a much warmer and a more
unstable airmass south into the region, supporting a more
significant threat for afternoon thunderstorms. The aforementioned
easterly shortwave rotating across the Chugach Mountains around
the north side of the low will provide extra lift and forcing to
help initiate convection. This feature will also provide enhanced
easterly flow and up to 25 kts of deep layer wind shear, enough to
support some slightly more organized storm clusters that should
initially develop over and near the Talkeetna Mountains. Steering
flow will easily be strong enough to pull initial storm clusters
west into the Mat-Su Valleys during the afternoon and evening.
Even Anchorage will have a chance (around 20-30%) to see a
thunderstorm moving off of the Hillside into lower elevations
during the late afternoon and evening hours.

By Tuesday, Southcentral will shift back into a col (a gap in
between larger weather systems) along with much weaker winds aloft.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will again be possible during the
afternoon and evening, especially along and near the various
mountain ranges as yet another shortwave moves into the Copper
River Basin. This feature will move westward as the mid-level flow
begins to shift southerly over western Southcentral ahead of a
wave moving east from Bristol Bay. This should allow any showers
and thunderstorms that do develop over the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains to slowly lift northward across the western Kenai,
around Anchorage, and into the southern Susitna Valley. In
addition, the northern Susitna Valley and Talkeetnas will again
have the best shot at seeing more widely scattered thunderstorms.
Otherwise, expect another very warm day afternoon in the upper
60s to mid 70s across the interior valleys with an increase in
southeasterly gap winds for typical locations beginning Tuesday
afternoon.

-AS/PP/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

General forecast remains on track, though there have been a few
updates to forecast details. Overall, cloudy, cool, and moist for
much of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands. For Southwest
Alaska, widespread thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across
much of the interior, followed by steadily decreasing thunderstorm
activity over the next few days.

Diving into the details... starting with the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands: the primary feature to watch is an upper low
south of Attu. This upper low and its associated surface low
complex will gradually track eastward across the Bering Sea
through Tuesday. As it does, its weakening front will bring light
rain showers along the Aleutian Islands. Through the latter half
of today, a weak upper low south of Saint Matthew Island will be
absorbed into the circulation of the main upper low and slingshot
counterclockwise around it as a robust shortwave. This shortwave
will bring a broad swath of 25-30 kt winds from the Pribilof
Islands south to Unalaska and the Alaska Peninsula from this
evening through Wednesday. While models are still struggling with
the track of this robust shortwave, the primary area of forecast
uncertainty will be for precipitation in Southwest Alaska. Behind
this low, ridging builds across the Western and Central Bering,
leading to overcast skies and calmer winds.

For Southwest Alaska, the main focus continues to be on
thunderstorms and lightning. Confidence is very high that
thunderstorms today will be much more widespread and likely more
intense than yesterday. The main areas of concern will be from
Kuskokwim Valley and Lime Village south to the Bristol Bay coast,
with a small chance (about 10-20%) for thunderstorms to reach
Dillingham and Naknek/King Salmon. Still, the bulk of activity
will likely be focused in Kuskokwim Valley and northern interior
Bristol Bay, where a thermal trough in combination with easterly
shortwaves will likely spur on the strongest convection.
Convection appears likely again tomorrow for this same area,
though to a lesser extent as cloud cover increases ahead of the
approaching Bering Sea low. Models have trended towards a slower
arrival of the Bering low though, so there may be a long enough
period of clearer skies over the Southwest interior for some
decent convection. By Wednesday, with the upper low moving into
Bristol Bay, the influx of more stable air will likely inhibit
thunderstorm potential. The primary challenge for Wednesday,
instead, will be honing in on rain amounts, as this will very much
be affected by uncertainty regarding how the shortwave tracks
after curving around the upper low in the Bering Sea.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

An upper level low in the Gulf will bring clouds with showers to
southcentral Alaska. The low exits the region before Friday. At
the same time, an upper level ridge builds over the ALCAN. Waves
of energy embedded in the ridge keeps the threat for showers
through Sunday, with breaks of sun. Depending on daytime heating,
the Copper River Basin has the chance of scattered thunderstorms
from the waves.

A series of weak Bering lows will bring clouds with periods of
rain to the Aleutians through Saturday. Model agreement is low
with the track of these systems, but the highest confidence of
impacts are between Adak and Unalaska. Friday sees the development
of a Kamchatka low, which will travel to Bristol Bay late Sunday,
generating a period of rain for Southwest Alaska.

-SS

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist with westerly
winds late morning through late evening. A shower at or in the
vicinity of the terminal is possible this afternoon.

&&


$$