Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

650
FXAK68 PAFC 041341
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 AM AKDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday night)...

Expect another warm summer day today compliments of a ridge that
stretches across most of mainland Alaska. However, a weak shortwave
will skirt the Copper River Basin this afternoon and showers are
expected across the higher elevations this afternoon and evening.

For Friday, the upper ridge will weaken as a trough begins to dig
into Western Alaska out of an Arctic low. This will be enough to
increase shower activity over the Mountains for most of
Southcentral Friday afternoon and evening, though thunderstorms
are not expected.

Saturday will usher in a return to more clouds and increased chances
of rainfall due to the continued development of the trough.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday morning)...

Key Messages:

 * Red Flag Warnings issued for the Inland Bristol Bay and Lake
   Iliamna zones from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through 9 PM AKDT
   this evening.

 * A cooling trend, along with elevated minimum relative
   humidities begins Friday and lasts into the weekend across
   Southwest Alaska.

Discussion:

The dry and warm pattern will continue across interior Southwest
Alaska for today. Surface high pressure in the Bering along with
surface low pressure in the interior of the state will cause the
pressure gradient to tighten somewhat beginning this afternoon.
North to northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph
at times are likely across Inland Bristol Bay (New
Stuyahok/Koliganek) as well as Iliamna and surrounding locations
this afternoon into this evening. These winds, in conjunction with
temperatures in the middle 70s and RH values in 20s percent will
present another hot, dry, and windy fire weather threat today.
With this, Red Flag Warnings have been issued for the Inland
Bristol Bay and Lake Iliamna zones from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon
through 9 PM AKDT this evening.

A cooling trend across Southwest begins Friday and lasts into the
weekend. Temperatures by this weekend look to drop back into the
low to middle 60s for highs. Shower chances return for portions of
Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley Saturday into Sunday as a
series of weak upper- level shortwaves will move overhead.

Farther out west, a weak North Pacific low will send its front
northward into Adak/Atka by Friday and will result in a period of
light rain. Rain should taper off by Friday evening across the
area as the front pivots back to the southeast. After the front
moves away from the Central Aleutian Chain, higher pressure builds
back in with more quiet weather anticipated across the Bering and
Aleutians through the weekend. The only challenge will be where
low stratus and overcast conditions develop.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Through the end of this weekend and into early next week,
relatively cooler and wetter weather is expected to roll in as
Arctic troughing gradually digs further south into interior
Alaska. As this occurs, northwesterly flow aloft will help
moderate temperatures closer to seasonal averages. While timing
these shortwave pushes remains the main challenge in the medium-
to- long range forecast, much of the southern mainland will likely
see on-and-off light showery conditions through the period.
Instability has trended lower, so convective activity should be
limited with any storms that do form.

Looking into the North Pacific, an upper-level low will track
across the Southern Gulf on Sunday and into Monday. While this
system shouldn`t have much direct impact on our region, it could
send moisture up into some of the coastal regions of Southcentral
(including the Wrangell Mountains and Price William Sound). By
Wednesday, another North Pacific low builds just South of the
Central Aleutians. This second low appears to take a more
northerly track, potentially bringing more widespread impacts
across the region toward the later half of the week.

-CW

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Surface high pressure over the Bering Sea coupled with surface low
pressure across the interior of the state will once again cause
north to northwest winds to increase this afternoon across
Southwest Alaska. The increase increase in winds will have a
drying effect across portions of the southwestern interior,
especially across Inland Bristol Bay where northwesterlies will
downslope off of the Kilbuck Mountains into Koliganek and New
Stuyahok. While temperatures across the majority of Southwest will
be a couple degrees cooler, temperatures are still expected to be
in the middle 70s across the interior. Relative humidities will
also look to fall to 20 to 25, especially for Lake Iliamna and
Inland Bristol Bay this afternoon. There is some uncertainty
regarding how much wind may reach into the Kuskokwim Valley and
along the Western Alaska Range (Lime Village) this afternoon,
which, in turn, also features uncertainty in how dry those
locations might become this afternoon.

For Southcentral: Hot and dry conditions will persist today,
before beginning to moderate for tomorrow. There remains the
potential for northerly winds up to 10-15 mph through the northern
Susitna Valley and northern Copper River Basin late this
afternoon through tonight. The strongest winds may also occur
during the overnight hours tonight. Therefore, it still looks like
the strongest winds and hottest/driest conditions will not line
up temporally or geographically as the strongest winds are also
expected to be through the higher elevations where conditions will
be slightly cooler and a little more moist.

In the end, there are NOT any Red Flag Warnings out for the
Susitna Valley or Copper River Basin, but conditions will not be
too far removed.

By Saturday, fire weather concerns will have abated across
Southcentral as an upper level trough digs into the area and
brings significantly higher RH values and lower temperatures.

&&

$$