Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

351
FXAK68 PAFC 311311
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
511 AM AKDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Today through Monday)...

Much quieter (but still somewhat unsettled) conditions are
prevailing across Southcentral compared to this time yesterday.
The frontal system that brought all sorts of chaos in the form of
intense winds, rain and mountain snow has now moved off into the
AlCan region and eastern Gulf, allowing southeasterly winds and
steadier precipitation to subside. In the wake of the front, a
showery regime is taking over as cool air aloft rushes in near a
weak low and attendant upper trough shifting east into the region
from Southwest. Widespread rain showers are streaming north ahead
of the trough axis into the northern Gulf Coast, with some
occasional lightning noted with one of the stronger updrafts
overnight south of Seward. Marine instability could fuel a few
more marine thunderstorms out over the Gulf today, in addition to
the ongoing showers. Farther inland, conditions have mostly dried
out, but showers are still occasionally working north past the
coastline into parts of the Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su Valleys.
Rain could mix with or turn to snow at times along the Seward
Highway corridor, especially near Moose Pass and Turnagain Pass,
so watch out for sudden reductions in visibility and slick spots
along this corridor today.

Looking to the remainder of the weekend into early next week, the
overall showery and seasonably warm pattern does not look likely
to change much. The trough and weak low currently drifting into
the western Gulf will continue to slowly lift northeast, keeping
scattered rain showers going over water and periodic rain/snow
showers spreading inland over Southcentral on-and-off through
Monday. What`s left of the main trough axis will begin to shear
apart as it lifts northeast towards the northern Alaska Range by
late Monday evening. By around the same time, the next system of
interest will also enter the southwestern Gulf. A frontal system
associated with a sprawling Bering low will begin to send strong
southeasterly winds and rain into the southern Gulf and across
Kodiak Island as it approaches from the south towards the end of
the day on Monday. This looks like the start of what could be an
extended period of more active weather next week, especially in
terms of wind and waves in and around the Gulf, so stay tuned for
updates.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday morning)...

Key Messages:

* Wind Advisory in effect for Unalaska/Nikolski through 7 AM AKDT
  this morning (Saturday).

* Cold air from the north moves in behind the strong Bering low as
  it moves into the Gulf of Alaska for this weekend.

* Pattern remains active across the Bering and Aleutians this
  weekend and into the new work week. Low tracks look to be a
  little more southerly than this past week.

The Bering low which brought increased water levels across the
Kuskokwim Delta the past few days and brought gusty winds to the
Aleutian Chain is currently crossing the the Alaska Peninsula
(AKPEN) into the North Pacific this morning. Rain will continue
across the Aleutians, AKPEN, and Southwest and become more showery
in nature for this weekend with cold air moving in. Some snow
flakes may mix in at times across the Kuskokwim Delta and
Kuskokwim Delta Coast as precipitation combines with the incoming
cold air this weekend. Overall, the forecast remains largely on
track. The coastal flood advisory that was out for the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast until this morning was cancelled. There will be higher
water levels this morning`s high tide, but winds have diminished
significantly and the next tide will be lower than Friday
morning`s high tide tide.

Flow switches back to the south and southeast for Sunday ahead of
the next storm system moving across the Bering. Initially, for
today, a North Pacific low tracks south of Kamchatka as its gale-
force front moves across Shemya and the western Bering Saturday
evening. The gale-force front spreads gusty southeasterly winds to
Adak/Atka Saturday night through Sunday morning before making its
way to the Pribilof Islands, Unalaska/Nikolski, and the southern
AKPEN by Sunday afternoon and evening. Light to moderate rain will
also accompany this front on its eastern journey across the
Bering this weekend. Behind the front, strong winds are expected
to wrap cooler air into the low. This cold air wrapping into the
storm will also generate instability over the Bering and North
Pacific near the Aleutian Chain where a few lightning strikes will
be possible (10 to 30 percent chance) Sunday and Monday. The
Pacific side marine zones of the Western and Central Aleutians
will have the best chance for marine lightning with the better jet
dynamics residing there.

Gale force winds are expected at this time to switch from
southeasterly to southwesterly behind the initial front. Stronger
gusts above 55 kt will be possible. There is a potential for
storm force sustained winds or stronger Sunday into Monday (30 to
40 percent chance) as the low center moves along the Western
Aleutian Chain (Shemya) to the Central Aleutians (Adak/Atka) and
Eastern Aleutians (Nikolski/Unalaska) by Monday evening and
Tuesday morning.

As far as Southwest Alaska and the Kuskokwim Delta Coast are
concerned with this system, the front and its gusty easterly to
east-southeasterly winds eventually make it to the coastal
Southwest by Monday morning, along with rain. Right now, this set
up does not look conducive for a coastal flooding threat along the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast, due in part to the more offshore/easterly
component to the wind. Most of the rain with this system will look
to fall along the coast and the AKPEN, especially the Pacific
side, Monday into Tuesday, with interior portions of Southwest
contending with showers at times. Continue to monitor the forecast
for updates as the active weather pattern continues to unfold.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The weather pattern will remain active through the long term as a
broad trough with numerous shortwaves remains over the Bering Sea
and far northern Pacific. Due to the abundance of shortwaves and
interactions along a broad baroclinic zone, models are struggling
to reach a consensus on the track of each respective
storm/shortwave as they move from the Chain into the Gulf. As
such, forecast confidence for the timing of strong winds and/or
rain remains low. Given then abundance of warm air from the
current system, and another warm and wet system on Tuesday, rain
remains the main precipitation type for most populated areas
throughout the southern Mainland and Aleutians. Modeled snow
levels are forecast to be between 1500 and 2500 ft, but due to the
large spread in storm track there is a large variation in which
areas may be cold enough to get snow. Overall, the forecast
remains noisy, but warmer than normal temperatures and areas of
rain will continue. In comparison to the current weather, impacts
such as wind and rain are more likely to be over the Aleutians,
Kodiak, the Alaska Peninsula and the Kenai Peninsula.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...A strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind will persist
over the terminal through early Saturday morning. Winds and gusts
are likely to be strongest, with gusts 35 to 50 mph, through 4 PM
before slowly diminishing, with gusts 25 to 40 mph, through
around midnight. While wind are expected to continue to slowly
weaken through the overnight hours into Saturday morning,
occasional gusts to around 25 kt are likely to remain over the
terminal through Saturday morning.

Rain showers are expected to fill back in over the terminal by
late this afternoon. MVFR ceilings are likely with MVFR
visibilities possible in heavier showers. The precipitation will
likely taper off by around midnight. However, another round of
scattered showers is likely by early Saturday morning. While VFR
conditions are expected to prevail during this time, any heavier
showers could result in brief periods of MVFR ceilings and
visibilities.



&&


$$