Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXAK68 PAFC 160047
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall along the immediate
northern Gulf coast and eastern Kenai Peninsula will slowly trend
lighter this afternoon into this evening, as the vertically
stacked low in the southwestern Gulf slowly drifts east and
onshore flow weakens. Within the broad longwave troughing
stretching from the Bering Sea across the Gulf, shortwaves
embedded in the flow rotate inland allowing for periods of light
rain to spill over the mountains at times. The western Kenai up
through Anchorage and the MatSu, as well as the southern Copper
Basin, could see up to a tenth or two of light rain through this
evening. Periods of snow will be possible at higher elevations
with snow levels fluctuating between 2500 ft to 4000 ft along the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains. The strongest of such waves should
clear the region by late tonight with lighter, more showery
precipitation lingering along the coast through Friday as the low
weakens and tracks east across the central Gulf. Gusty winds
through favored gaps, along the coast, and within Prince William
Sound weaken to small craft or below through this evening in the
wake of the wave pushing inland.

The upper trough slowly translates eastwards towards the
Panhandle through the remainder of the weekend, with drier
conditions expected across Southcentral as weak, transient ridging
moves over the region. Temperatures trend cooler through the
weekend, with temperatures well below freezing across the Copper
Basin and near or just below freezing across the Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and the MatSu by Saturday night and Sunday morning.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A low is tracking east into the western Gulf of Alaska this
afternoon, sending precipitation across the Alaska Range and
spreading throughout Southwest Alaska. An additional wave of
precipitation will move across the Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim
Valley region tonight. Some of this could reach Aniak, but there
is a smaller potential (around 30 percent) that some of the this
could spill farther west into the Kuskokwim Delta. More likely
though (40 to 60 percent), the deformation band will set up in the
Kuskokwim Valley and through Bristol Bay. Models are not handling
the exact location of this feature well. Therefore, confidence
for the location and the timing/duration of the precipitation
forecast in Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Delta in the near term
is relatively low- medium.

Gusty winds and precipitation will linger across the central to
eastern Bering Sea as cold air advects south under northerly flow.
These winds are expected to gradually decrease throughout the day
Friday as high pressure upstream pushes east and weakens.
Offshore flow across Southwest coupled with the synoptic setup is
yielding to additional cold air advection across Mainland
Southwest tonight through this weekend. Temperatures will continue
to trend cooler over the next few days. Precipitation type will
gradually transition to a mix rain and snow by Friday morning
across the Kuskokwim and portions of Bristol Bay. The most
probable locations for precipitation Friday afternoon and Saturday
morning for Southwest will be closer to higher elevations and the
Kuskokwim Valley. Any precipitation lingering Saturday morning
should be fully transitioned to snow.

Meanwhile, a gale force front is tracking through the Western
Bering Sea and Aleutians this evening and is expected to continue
toward the Central Bering Friday night into Saturday morning where
it will weaken nearly in place. Behind it, a developing compact
low from the North Pacific will track northeast, passing the Adak
and Atka area Saturday morning. As it catches up to the degrading
front, the features will merge in the Central Bering and continue
to press the weakening ridge downstream toward Southwest Alaska.
Saturday will be relatively quiet for Southwest Alaska, but by
Sunday morning, the Bering system will reach the Southwest coast
where rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow returns.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7, Monday through Thursday)...

By Monday morning, there is fair confidence (60 to 70%) for a low
pressure system, with a depth near 995 mb, to be moving inland
into the Kuskokwim Delta, potentially bringing strong onshore
winds and wave action to the coast. Given southerly flow
continuing to bring in warmer air, rainfall is expected with this
system. Additionally, the front of this low is set to break off
into a triple-point low spinning up in the western Gulf of Alaska
by Monday morning, pushing inland to Southcentral through Monday
bringing similar conditions to the northern Gulf Coast.

Confidence in increasing with regards to the progression of a
stronger low moving into our area south of the Alaska Peninsula by
Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, this low may be near 960 mb
and would work to drive stronger winds along the Alaska Peninsula
as well as bring a large swath of rainfall across the area. By
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning moderate model agreement suggests
the progression of this low pressure system into the northern Gulf
of Alaska bringing it`s round of active weather to the
Southcentral coastline. There is poor model agreement regarding
the progression of the low beyond Wednesday, with several
solutions weakening the low in the northern Gulf, while others
hold on to it`s strength. However, generally unsettled weather
expected for the region through the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A series of upper level short-waves will rotate from the
Gulf up across Anchorage this evening, which could bring an
occasional short period of light rain. With deep southeasterly
flow aloft VFR conditions will persist. Meanwhile, northerly winds
will shift to southeasterly off of Turnagain Arm between 03Z and
06Z. The strongest winds will remain out over Turnagain Arm and
stable air near the surface is not conducive to producing gusty
conditions. With that said, there is a chance (30-40%) of a few
wind gusts at the terminal in the 12-20 kt range this evening.

&&


$$