Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

956
FXAK68 PAFC 190045
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 PM AKDT Mon May 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Thursday)...

The key message of the forecast for the next few days is:
expect more of the same, with a persistent cool, cloudy, and windy
pattern (and wet in some areas). Starting with the analysis, a
high amplitude trough and large vertically stacked low are
centered over the Bering Sea. Southern AK is right at the exit of
the trough, with fast moving features ejecting out of the trough
and northward across mainland AK. A short-wave trough over the
western Gulf is elongating and weakening as it approaches
Southcentral this afternoon. This is producing light intermittent
rain along the coast, but expect rain to become steadier as the
trough nears this evening. Meanwhile, mostly cloudy skies prevail
across inland areas of Southcentral, with a few showers driven by
weak surface-based instability. A surface ridge along the Gulf
coast is building inland as a weak trough approaches, leading to
another day of gusty southeasterly gap winds.

Looking upstream, a compact vertically stacked low is crossing
the Alaska Peninsula into Bristol Bay, with a frontal system and
associated wind and rain tracking toward Kodiak Island and the
western Gulf. As the low continues to Southwest AK tonight, a
trailing short-wave and the surface frontal system will lift
northward across the western Gulf tonight and to Southcentral
tomorrow. This will bring steadier and heavier rain to the coast.
Strong low level southeasterly flow will become a bit more
southerly as the short-wave lifts northward across Southcentral
tomorrow. Thus, downslope flow will weaken and there could be a
brief period of light rain from the western Kenai to Anchorage and
the Matanuska Valley tomorrow morning. There is higher confidence
in steady rain overspreading the Susitna Valley Tuesday morning.

Inland areas of Southcentral will dry out later in the day
Tuesday. By this point in time the long-wave trough will have
shifted over mainland AK. A steady stream of short-waves will
maintain rain along the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound. A
weak surface low will track out of the Pacific and across the Gulf
Tuesday night through Wednesday as another stronger short-wave
crosses Southcentral. While this has looked like a no-doubter for
continued rain along the coast, models have trended wetter across
all of Southcentral for Wednesday. The best corridor of rain looks
to be from Prince William Sound to the Copper River Valley,
though light rain could extend all the way west to the western
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the Mat-Su. Low level flow will
lighten ahead of the surface low, so upslope/downslope will not be
a factor in the rain forecast. Southcentral will dry out
Wednesday night, but a new Bering low will send a frontal system
toward Kodiak and the western Gulf Wednesday night into Thursday,
as the active weather pattern continues.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

The deep upper-level trough and vertically stacked low over the
Bering continues to be the dominant weather feature and driver of
the overall weather pattern for much of the region. A stout jet
streak embedded in a zonal jet south of the Aleutian Chain,
combined with a vigorous upper-level shortwave just south of the
eastern Aleutians. These features are driving the dynamics
responsible for the rapid development of a gale-force surface low
getting ready to cross the Alaska Peninsula just east of Cold Bay
this afternoon. This low will continue to track into western
Bristol Bay tonight, moving onshore near Togiak overnight and into
the Y-K Delta Tuesday morning, weakening rapidly as it races away
from the jet and loses upper-level support.

Conditions will deteriorate overnight along coastal and across
interior Bristol Bay as rain and gusty easterly winds develop out
ahead of the surface low. In its wake, the rain will become more
showery as winds shift and become gusty out of the south with
these showers and gusty winds moving into the Y-K Delta through
Tuesday along with the low.

The aforementioned vertically stacked low will redevelop southwest
of the Pribilofs on Tuesday as another upper-level shortwave
deepens over the Bering Sea. This feature will extend a cold front
across the eastern Bering, lifting toward the southwest coast by
late Tuesday with another round of gusty southerly winds and rain
showers. The northeasterly jog of these features is in response to
a slight amplification of the longwave pattern as a transient
ridge builds over the western half of the Aleutians and a new
surface low develops well south of Attu, at the triple point of an
occluded Kamchatka Low.

This new low will moves eastward, along the Pacific side of the
Aleutians, with its front moving over the Adak and Atka by early
Wednesday morning. This low is expected to deepen to a sub 980mb
gale-force low by Wednesday morning as it moves toward Atka,
likely moving over the southern Bering just east of town late
Wednesday. As its front tracks east, expect strong southerly winds
along the warm front, with the potential for westerly storm-force
gusts wrapping underneath the low. The front will then reach the
Southwest coast by Wednesday night with the front and parent low
continuing to track northeast and weakening through Thursday.

-TM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

A broad upper level low anchored over the Bering Sea looks to
continue to remain in place through the long term. Several
shortwaves rotating around this low across the western Bering,
North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support the
active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of southern
Alaska through this weekend.

Models are in good agreement to begin the long term period as the
late week low in the eastern Bering pushes inland into Southwest
Alaska, spreading rain chances across much of the region from the
Gulf into Interior Southwest and Southcentral heading into the
weekend. This system will be quickly followed by a series of two
subsequent low pressure systems lifting out of the North Pacific,
with the first being this weekend and the second early next week.
Models begin to slightly differ on the exact timing and northward
progression of each of these lows, but the ensemble mean consensus
generally has the lows tracking south and along the Aleutian
Chain and into the Gulf. Elevated winds accompanied by light to
moderate rainfall with each system can be expected along the
Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before pushing into the Gulf, with
the heaviest precipitation expected along the immediate Gulf
coast.

&&







.AVIATION...

PANC...As a front moves through the Gulf of Alaska the next 36
hours, rain showers at the terminal are likely from 15Z to 19Z
Tuesday. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected to continue
through most of this time too with wind gusts ranging from 30 to
35 knots into 15Z Tuesday.




&&


$$