Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

522
FXAK68 PAFC 020019
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
419 PM AKDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

Southcentral Alaska witnessed yet another sunny day today.
Satellite reveals clouds over the interior of the state towards
the Fairbanks area with clear conditions south of there across
mainland Southcentral. Gap winds along the coast have largely
decreased, except for Thompson Pass and Valdez Narrows where
northeast winds continue around the 25 mph mark.

Looking into the forecast, a North Pacific low, currently just to
the south of the Eastern Aleutians, will continue tracking to the
east-southeast through Thursday. Kodiak Island will be on the
northern fringe of this system. Expect light snow in the morning,
turning to a rain/snow mix by mid to late morning and over to all
rain for late morning through the afternoon hours Thursday.
Precipitation amounts look to be relatively light with this system
with the bulk of precipitation remaining to the south of Kodiak
Island. The rest of Southcentral will see no precipitation
associated with this system.

The main surface low pressure will pull eastward to the
southeastern Gulf by Friday morning. However, additional
shortwaves lifting through the North Pacific will interact with
this system and spawn a series of smaller more mesoscale low
pressure systems. One such meso-low may impact Kodiak Island on
Friday into Saturday. Another complicating factor is how and if
this specific meso-low interacts with broad 500 mb trough digging
southward over Kodiak Island and into the southwest Gulf and North
Pacific. The airmass is trending colder as well as for
Friday/Saturday when compared to the airmass for Thursday`s system
over Kodiak Island. The most aggressive guidance with respect to
QPF of Kodiak is the Canadian suite of guidance. This forecast
package does not go that aggressive with QPF or snow amounts like
the Canadian guidance, but more of a light snow or rain/snow mix
event Friday afternoon through Saturday late Saturday morning.

In addition to the Kodiak Island meso-low for Friday and
Saturday, there is yet another meso-low looking to lift through
the eastern Gulf Friday to along the north Gulf Coast by Saturday.
The GFS has the quickest progression with this system and pushes
it all the way into Prince William Sound by Saturday afternoon.
All other guidance, NAM, Canadian, and ECMWF are much slower with
this meso-low and do not push it into Prince William Sound while
keeping it along the north Gulf Coast as it weakens through
Saturday evening. The uncertainty in the track/progression of this
low will have implications on the precipitation forecast for
areas along the north Gulf Coast like Cordova as well as for the
Prince William Sound communities such as Whittier and Valdez.
Needless to say that it does appear the long string of sunny days
is about to come to an end this weekend...at least along the
coast. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates regarding meso-low
tracks for Kodiak Island and the north Gulf Coast.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...



Key Message: A series of North Pacific lows sweep across the
Aleutian Islands.

This afternoon, a North pacific low which has brought a mix of
rain and snow showers to the Aleutian Islands and Alaska Peninsula
departs to the east, reaching the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday
morning. Northerly winds resume across the eastern Bering Sea
behind the low. The front of a second north Pacific low brings
light to moderate precipitation to Shemya early Thursday morning,
and briefly to Adak and Atka on Friday morning, before it departs
to the south. The front of a third North Pacific low will lift
eastward across Shemya late Friday night into Saturday morning and
continues along the Chain through the weekend.


Key Message: Dry and clear conditions continue across Southwest
Alaska followed by light snow, from Friday into the weekend.

Continued ridging across the Southwest mainland, combined with
clearing skies and calm winds, will contribute to the development
of patchy early morning fog, most likely around King Salmon. Dry
and mostly clear conditions expected through Thursday evening with
increased cloud cover for Friday. Light snow showers return
Friday morning as a compact low drops south across the Kuskokwim
Delta and lingers over Southwest Alaska into the weekend.


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Weakening low pressure in the Gulf will keep increased cloud
cover for Southcentral and precipitation chances for the southern
coast at the start of the long term forecast period. High pressure
promoting clear skies over the eastern Bering Sea will nudge east
by Monday morning, allowing for a low pressure system to send a
front across the Aleutians and into the Alaska Peninsula on
Monday. A pattern shift towards wetter and cloudier looks likely
by mid-week as upper level shortwaves rotate in from the North
Pacific. Exact timing is uncertain, but models have trended
towards a solution where most of Alaska sees moderate
precipitation as troughing moves over the state Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$