Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

855
FXAK68 PAFC 260005
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
405 PM AKDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

A series of fronts will push through the region from south to
north this afternoon into the weekend from a low in the Bering
Sea. The initial front will generate gap winds for the Copper
River Basin as well as winds over the Turnagain and Knik Arm.
There is higher confidence for Turnagain Arm winds than Knik Arm
winds given the orientation of the front. The winds will be
strongest this afternoon into the evening hours, which will clip
Turnagain Arm and the Hillside potentially gusting 40 to 55 mph.
A few gusts of 40 mph is possible this afternoon for Palmer. These
winds will begin to diminish overnight as the surface high weakens.

A NW to SE oriented front that is currently between Kodiak Island
and Kenai Peninsula will push into Prince William Sound before
tomorrow morning. This front has a swath of gale forced winds and
precipitation. The front will push over the Chugach and Kenai
mountains tomorrow afternoon, but most of the moisture should be
downsloped. Hence, 30% chance of rain for Anchorage, Matsu Valleys,
and Kenai into tomorrow evening.

A brief lull in precipitation will occur in the overnight hours,
before another front pushes into the area early Sunday morning.
This will bring rain for a swath of Southcentral through Sunday
afternoon with at least 40% confidence of at least 0.10 inches of
rain. Clouds remain overhead with showers for the rest of the
weekend into next week as remaining waves of energy from the low
propagate into the region.

-SS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Sunday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong and expansive Bering Sea low continues to bring strong
  winds and high seas to much of the Bering Sea and Aleutians
  today, with another round of strong westerly winds affecting
  portions of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula through Saturday.

* Strong winds across Southwest Alaska gradually diminish as the
  system moves inland and weakens, though periods of rain and
  showers continue.

* For Southwest Alaska: High Wind Warnings are in effect for the
  Western Capes. The Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect with
  the primary communities of concern being Kwigillingok/Kongiganak
  and Kipnuk, and communities near and along the mouth of the
  Kuskokwim River. As well as a Flood Watch remaining in effect
  for the interior Kuskokwim Delta, for areas near Bethel.

Discussion:

A vertically stacked low over the Bering Sea remains the dominant
feature across the region this morning. The upper-level
circulation is readily apparent in the 500 mb pattern, with
several lobes of enhanced vorticity rotating around the broader
circulation. At the surface, the low remains quite deep, while
the associated front has pushed inland across Southwest Alaska.
Although the system has reached maturity, a tight pressure
gradient surrounding the low will maintain strong winds across a
large portion of the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain today.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutians, strong southwesterly to westerly
flow continues today on the southern side of the low. Another
focused shortwave wrapping around the souther side of the parent
circulation will reinforce the pressure gradient and bring another
increase in winds to the Aleutians this afternoon/evening. Storm-
force winds remain possible in portions of the Aleutians waters,
with widespread gales elsewhere/ Large seas will also remain a
significant concern, with seas generally in the 20-foot range and
locally higher across the central and eastern Aleutians.

For Southwest Alaska, widespread rainfall is ongoing the front
across the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay region. Winds gradually
shift from southeast to south and southwest following frontal
passage. The strongest winds along the immediate coast will slowly
decrease as the front moves farther inland, though gusty
conditions will persist particularly along exposed coastal
locations and through terrain- favored areas. Farther inland, rain
becomes more showery as the deeper moisture associated with the
front pulls north and east.

The prolonged onshore flow associated with this system has pushed
water toward the coast, and elevated water levels will remain
possible until winds sufficiently turn offshore and diminish.
Tidal gauges near Kwigillingok did not reach flood stage, but
Kipnuk has reached minor flood stage, with a more potent tidal
push coming this afternoon/evening. Water levels of 0.5 to 1.5
feet above the normal highest tide line is expected near Kipnuk.

By Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, the overall system
begins to lose some organization. The upper low becomes
increasingly elongated as shortwave energy rotates around and
eventually away from the parent circulation. This should allow the
surface low to gradually fill while the pressure gradient begins
relaxing from west to east. Westerly winds will nevertheless
remain elevated across the eastern Bering, eastern Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula into Saturday evening.

The weakening trend becomes much more apparent by Sunday. The
guidance depicts the upper circulation becoming broader and less
defined as it shifts toward Southwest Alaska and the Alaska
Peninsula. Heights begin to rise over the western and central
Bering behind the departing trough, while the strongest mid-level
flow becomes displaced farther south and east. At the surface, the
weakening low and relaxing pressure gradient will allow winds to
continue diminishing across the Aleutians and Bering Sea.

That said, Sunday will not necessarily be completely quiet.
Cyclonic flow aloft and lingering low-level moisture should
support scattered showers across portions of Southwest Alaska,
the Alaska Peninsula, and eastern Aleutians. Northwesterly winds
will also persist behind the departing system, particularly
across the eastern Bering and Bristol Bay. Seas will subside as
the long-duration westerly fetch weakens.

Overall, the forecast trend remains toward continued strong winds
and rough seas today into Saturday, followed by a more pronounced
decrease in winds and seas Saturday night through Sunday as the
Bering low fills and the upper-level circulation weakens.

LM/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

The long term period starting out on Tuesday will feature a
complex trough moving over the southern Mainland and Alaska Gulf,
with a surface low moving over the northeastern Gulf near Yakutat.
Gusty northwest winds will likely be ongoing through gaps and
passes along the coast of Southcentral, particularly near Kodiak
Island and the Barrens. Out west, cool northwesterly flow
extending from the Bering Strait down along the western coastline
will bring seasonably cool temperatures in the 30s and 40s down
into much of Southwest Alaska through midweek. A low-amplitude
ridge is anticipated to be progressing across parts of the central
Bering and Aleutian Chain, allowing for relatively quiet
conditions to prevail initially. However, a low moving out of
Kamchatka will likely reach the central/western parts of the
Bering and Aleutians by Tuesday afternoon, sending gusty southeast
winds and rain across the region as the low and leading frontal
boundary push east with time.

Looking towards the end of next week, models diverge in regards to
the progression of the low approaching the southwestern Bering
earlier in the week. The deterministic 12z ECMWF is a notable
outlier at this time, as it depicts the ridge over the Bering
remaining much farther west through Thursday and Friday. It also
attempts to dig a separate trough south from northern Kamchatka
down into the AKPen and Gulf region between Tuesday and Thursday,
ultimately becoming a deeper low in the southern Gulf on Friday as
it interacts with another system driving up from the Pacific. In
contrast, most of the other deterministic and ensemble guidance
supports the Bering low and attendant upper trough remaining as
as the dominant system, showing the low continue to track mainly
east along the Aleutian Chain through Friday. Assuming this more
favored solution plays out, gusty south to southeast winds and
rain along the low`s front could shift from the Bering and
Southwest into Southcentral between Thursday and Friday. Most of
the heavier rain would likely be focused mainly along the Gulf
Coast, with most of the interior parts of Southcentral staying
drier towards the second half of next week.

-AS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. There
continues to be a high degree of uncertainty regarding potential
for southeast winds to make it into the terminal. A few gusts from
the southeast could clip the terminal this afternoon, but it now
looks like gusty winds at the surface could hold off until late
tonight or early tomorrow morning. During any period where
southeast winds do not reach the terminal at ground level, LLWS
will be possible due to strong southeast flow aloft developing
this afternoon into Saturday morning.

-AS

&&

$$