Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

000
FXAK68 PAFC 061307
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
507 AM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Two storm systems are set to move through southern Alaska through
early next week, bringing some windier and wetter conditions to
Southcentral. The first of which cross north across the southern
Alaska Peninsula and drives into Bristol Bay today. The associated
front tracks over Kodiak Island late tonight. Rain moved over the
Island overnight and will work its way north over the Kenai
Peninsula by early this morning. As the front progresses, rain
will spread along the north Gulf coast by late morning and then
into the MatSu Valley this afternoon. Lower elevations of the
Copper River Basin will remain relatively dry today, however,
higher elevations are expected to see precipitation by late this
evening. Southeasterly winds will pick up along the Kenai
Mountains and western Chugach Mountains this afternoon, providing
a downslope component for Anchorage and portions of inland and
western Kenai Peninsula. There is, however, a 50%-60% chance for
some light rain showers over Anchorage late this morning ahead of
the winds.

The second system is currently south of Amchitka and will spend
the next couple of days crossing the Bering Sea towards the
Kuskokwim Delta. Associated troughing will pull a another surge
of moisture into Southcentral Monday afternoon through Tuesday
afternoon. Along with another round of widespread rain, elevated
winds along terrain of the Copper River Basin and north Gulf coast
are expected Monday afternoon through Monday night. Turnagain Arm
winds will bend into Anchorage Monday evening, with wind gusts 20
to 24 mph possible across south Anchorage and gusts 24 to 28 mph
for portions of the Hillside. Additionally, winds in the
southwestern Gulf of Alaska as well as through Shelikof Strait are
expected to increase to small craft Monday night before spreading
to encompass much of the Gulf of Alaska and Cook Inlet by early
Tuesday morning.

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Tuesday)...

A long-wave trough remains firmly entrenched over the Bering Sea
and North-Central Pacific, with multiple embedded lows moving
through it. The first of these is over the far southern Alaska
Peninsula (AKPen), and the second of which is south of the central
Aleutian Chain and will move northward throughout the day today.
Widespread small- craft force winds and steady light to moderate
rainfall accompany both lows. The biggest impacts are to aviation,
with extensive areas of low clouds and a few areas of fog, and
marine activity with widespread small-craft force winds and waves,
especially south of the Aleutian Chain and AKPen.

The general evolution of the pattern and expected weather over the
next few days still looks on track, with progressive flow and
multiple storms transiting the region. The system over the
Southern AKPen will transition northward into Bristol Bay by
Sunday afternoon. Expect widespread wind and rain to accompany the
low along this track. Aloft, models depict two out of phase
negatively tilted short-wave troughs lifting toward Southwest AK
today, then exiting north and east tonight through Monday. This
will bring widespread rain to nearly all of Southwest throughout
today, with showers lingering through tonight.

The next Pacific storm will arrive along the central Aleutians
this afternoon (roughly Amchitka Island to Seguam Island) and
cross over to the southern Bering Sea in the vicinity or west of
Dutch Harbor tonight into Monday morning. It looks like the low
will hold together all the way to Southwest AK Monday afternoon.
Thus, look for another round of wind and rain with this storm as
it transits the region. Showery activity will persist for much of
Tuesday across Southwest and the AKPen as troughing remains close
enough, with most persistent showers in areas where winds will
upslope (Alaska Range and the AKPen). A shortwave ridge builds in
the Bering on Tuesday, which likely results in at least a day of
more quiet weather for the Bering, Aleutians, and southern AKPen.
The upper level flow will remain progressive, so expect more
active weather as we continue through the remainder of the work
week.

-PA/SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A shortwave trough digging across the Gulf of Alaska Wednesday
into Thursday is still on track to bring periods of rain across
Prince William Sound and interior locations across Southcentral
Alaska. The main focus through the long term period will shift out
west as a deepening upper trough enters the western Bering
Wednesday into Thursday. Confidence continues to increase on the
associated surface low tracking north along the eastern Russia
coastline before tracking into the Gulf of Anadyr and eventually
inland across northern Alaska through the second half of next
week. A potentially gale-force front will bring gusty
southwesterly winds across the Aleutians and much of the Bering
Wednesday into Thursday, with the front reaching the Southwest
coast on Thursday. The long fetch of strong southwesterly, onshore
winds could bring the possibility of high surf and minor coastal
flooding and erosion along the Kuskokwim Delta coast as the front
progresses through the region Thursday into Friday. In addition to
gusty winds across Southwest Alaska, widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall will accompany this system as it taps into a robust
stream of Pacific moisture. By next weekend, weaker, more zonal
flow takes over the Bering while the frontal system and widespread
rain continues east into Southcentral Alaska and the Gulf.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Light winds with down-inlet flow and VFR conditions will
persist through the TAF period. However, light rainfall is
expected to overspread the area by early this afternoon through
early Monday morning. Ceilings will likely hover around 5000`
during periods of rainfall with intermittent drops to 3500` to
4500` ceilings during heavier showers, especially towards the end
of the TAF period.

-AM

&&


$$