Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

131
FXAK68 PAFC 070112
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
512 PM AKDT Mon Jul 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Satellite and radar imagery this afternoon shows lingering
stratiform precipitation in the Gulf and along the coast from
Cordova and eastward across the Copper River Valley as the low in
the Gulf slowly exits to the east. Elsewhere, the northeasterly
flow over Southcentral between the departing low and a ridge
building to the north over the Interior has led to an increasingly
warm and unstable airmass this afternoon. Robust convection aided
by an easterly shortwave rotating around the north side of the
low has initiated over the Talkeetna Mountains and moved over the
Susitna Valley this afternoon. Enhanced easterly flow and up to
20 to 25 kts of deep layer wind shear could help support some more
organized storm clusters forming over the Chugach and Talkeetna
Mountains late this afternoon and evening. Steering flow will
easily be strong enough to pull initial storm clusters west into
the Mat-Su Valleys, with even Anchorage seeing a small chance (20%
to 30%) of a thunderstorm moving off of the Hillside into lower
elevations through the evening hours.

By Tuesday, Southcentral will shift back into a col (a gap in
between larger weather systems) along with much weaker winds
aloft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will again be possible
during the afternoon and evening, especially along and near the
various mountain ranges as yet another shortwave moves into the
Copper River Basin. This feature will move westward as the mid-
level flow begins to shift southerly over western Southcentral
ahead of a wave moving east from Bristol Bay. This should allow
any showers and thunderstorms that do develop over the Kenai and
Chugach Mountains to slowly lift northward across the western
Kenai, around Anchorage, and into the southern Susitna Valley. In
addition, the northern Susitna Valley and Talkeetnas will again
have the best shot at seeing more widely scattered thunderstorms.
Otherwise, expect another very warm day afternoon in the upper 60s
to mid 70s across the interior valleys with an increase in
southeasterly gap winds for typical locations beginning Tuesday
afternoon and persisting through Tuesday night.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Wednesday)...

General forecast remains on track, though there have been a few
updates to forecast details since the previous forecast package.
Overall, cloudy, cool, and moist for much of the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands. For Southwest Alaska, widespread thunderstorms
this afternoon/evening across much of the interior, followed by
steadily decreasing thunderstorm activity over the next few days.

Diving into the details... starting with the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands: the primary feature to watch is an upper low
south of Attu. This upper low and its associated surface low
complex will gradually track eastward across the Bering Sea
through Tuesday. As it does, its weakening front will bring light
rain showers along the Aleutian Islands. Through the latter half
of today, a weak upper low south of Saint Matthew Island will be
absorbed into the circulation of the main upper low and slingshot
counterclockwise around it as a robust shortwave. This shortwave
will bring a broad swath of 25-30 kt winds from the Pribilof
Islands south to Unalaska and the Alaska Peninsula from this
evening through Wednesday. While models are still struggling with
the track of this robust shortwave, the primary area of forecast
uncertainty will be for precipitation in Southwest Alaska. Behind
this low, ridging builds across the Western and Central Bering,
leading to overcast skies and calmer winds.

For Southwest Alaska, the main focus continues to be on
thunderstorms and lightning. Confidence is very high that
thunderstorms today will be much more widespread and likely more
intense than yesterday. The main areas of concern will be from
Kuskokwim Valley and Lime Village south to the Bristol Bay coast,
with a small chance (about 10-20%) for thunderstorms to reach
Dillingham and Naknek/King Salmon. Still, the bulk of activity
will likely be focused in Kuskokwim Valley and northern interior
Bristol Bay, where a thermal trough in combination with easterly
shortwaves will likely spur on the strongest convection.
Convection appears likely again tomorrow for this same area,
though to a lesser extent as cloud cover increases ahead of the
approaching Bering Sea low. Models have trended towards a slower
arrival of the Bering low though, so there may be a long enough
period of clearer skies over the Southwest interior for some
decent convection. By Wednesday, with the upper low moving into
Bristol Bay, the influx of more stable air will likely inhibit
thunderstorm potential. The primary challenge for Wednesday,
instead, will be honing in on rain amounts, as this will very much
be affected by uncertainty regarding how the shortwave tracks
after curving around the upper low in the Bering Sea.

-KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

An upper-level ridge centered over the ALCAN will remain the
dominant synoptic feature through much of the long-term period,
supporting generally warmer conditions across mainland Alaska.
While the ridge promotes periods of sunshine, several weak
shortwaves rounding the ridge will keep the potential for
scattered showers across portions of Southcentral through the
weekend. The greatest chance for convective development will
remain over the eastern Copper River Basin, where daytime heating
combined with passing disturbances may support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday through
Sunday. Elsewhere across Southcentral, precipitation will be more
limited.

Across the Bering Sea and Aleutians, an active pattern persists
as a series of lows track eastward through the weekend, bringing
periods of rain, low clouds, and locally gusty winds. Forecast
confidence in the exact track and timing of these systems remains
moderate, though the highest confidence for more persistent
rainfall continues to be from Adak eastward to Unalaska.

Attention then turns to a stronger North Pacific low expected to
move into the western and central Bering over the weekend before
lifting toward Bristol Bay late Sunday into Monday. As the system
approaches, widespread rain will overspread much of Southwest
Alaska with increasing winds, especially along the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay coast.

By Monday, the low is expected to continue tracking inland while
gradually weakening, allowing rain to spread farther across the
Kuskokwim Valley and portions of interior Southwest Alaska.
Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska will remain on the eastern
periphery of the system beneath the upper-level ridge, supporting
isolated showers over the higher terrain while lower elevation may
experience a mix of clouds and sunshine. Although model spread
increases by Monday regarding the exact evolution of the low,
confidence is growing in a wetter pattern across Southwest Alaska.



&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and west-to-southwesterly winds will
persist through late evening. A shower in the vicinity of the
terminal is possible this afternoon and evening as an upper level
wave moves through from the northeast. Southeasterly Turnagain Arm
winds up to 30 kts are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon.

&&


$$