Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

005
FXAK68 PAFC 200040
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 PM AKDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Thunderstorms have developed across Southcentral this afternoon,
  with the focus of activity being across the Susitna Valley. In
  the strongest storms, frequent lightning, small hail, and brief
  heavy downpours could cause localized flooding. If you hear
  thunder or see lightning, seek shelter.

* A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for LIGHTNING for the
  Southern, Central, Western, and Northern Susitna Valley, and the
  Lower Matanuska Valley until 1AM AKDT Saturday.

Discussion:

As of 4PM this afternoon, scattered thunderstorms have developed
across the Susitna Valley. Most of the activity is situated along
a corridor from just north of Chickaloon to the Talkeetna area.
Storm motion is slow with weak steering flow in place, but storms
are moving to the northwest with time. The main concern through
late this evening is frequent lightning strikes in the vicinity of
storm activity and outside of areas that see rainfall for
potential fire starts. If caught under one of these storms this
afternoon/evening, also expect locally heavy downpours due to the
slow storm motion. With the freezing level sitting at around 8500
feet across the Susitna Valley, small hail is also possible with
more intense storms.

Aloft, a reinforced southerly flow from a ridge anchored over the
Al/Can border and a digging trough over Southwest Alaska is
sending a series of weak shortwaves over the Matanuska and Susitna
Valleys. This upper level support has aligned with peak daytime
heating to initiate storm activity today. As temperatures begin to
cool mid to late evening, the atmosphere will stabilize itself
and diminish storms into areas of showers that could linger
through mid Saturday morning. There is also a more robust
shortwave currently located over the north-central Gulf and east
of Kodiak Island. With a secondary ridge axis building over the
eastern Gulf, this feature will quickly be pulled northward and
over Southcentral for Saturday afternoon. As this ridge builds, it
will also slightly reorient the mean flow from southerly to
southwesterly, which will likely shift the focus of thunderstorm
activity Saturday to the Copper River Basin. Models have come into
better agreement today in regards to positioning and timing of
this wave, and the consensus is to bring the wave over the
southern Copper River Basin during mid afternoon/peak daytime
heating hours. Therefore, there is medium to high (70-80%)
confidence of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon for this region.

Meanwhile, a weak North Pacific low`s front will lift northward
across the western Gulf through the end of Saturday. There are
still some minor timing/positioning differences among the global
models, but the general idea is for periods of rain showers to
begin to fill in across Kodiak Island midday Saturday to Saturday
afternoon. With the low ever so slowly moving northward and
weakening through Sunday, rain showers will likely remain across
Kodiak Island through Sunday afternoon.

-AM/Rux

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday afternoon)...

The main story continues to be afternoon/evening thunderstorms
across parts of interior Southwest Alaska through the weekend. A
Red Flag Warning remains in effect through late tonight/early
tomorrow morning for lightning in Lime Village, as strong
thunderstorms and ample lightning in that area may lead to fire
starts. The strongest storms may also produce hail and gusty
winds. For coastal Southwest, Alaska Peninsula, and Bering
Sea/Aleutian Islands, areas of dense fog and low stratus remain
likely as a ridge of high pressure lingers in the region. This
ridge is largely keeping surface lows at bay; as such, winds
remain weaker and precipitation more showery outside of the storm
systems that will stall near Western Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula through the next few days.

Diving into the details... the biggest change since the previous
forecast package has been to increase the coverage of isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms for today and tomorrow. Especially
in interior Southwest Alaska, clearer skies will be conducive to
surface heating and the development of thermal instability. In
addition, the upper low moving south across the Eastern Bering
through the weekend will orient the upper level flow such that
weak shortwaves will move southeast to northwest across the
interior and help support thunderstorm development. The forecast
challenge here will likely involve the cloud cover associated with
both the eastern Bering low and the weak low stalling near Alaska
Peninsula/Kodiak Island, which could reduce surface heating and
lead to weaker showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

Confidence is increasing that by Sunday, the ridge will have
retreated northwards enough that the region will see increasing
influence from a front moving into the Aleutians and a weak low
near Kodiak Island. This stabilizing influence will likely limit
thunderstorm chances to the northern portion of Kuskokwim Valley,
and bring increasing cloud cover and breezier winds to Southwest
Alaska. Further west, the front will likely bring winds 25 to 35
kt along the Aleutians, as well as steady, light rain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Next week will see unsettled weather for Southcentral Alaska and
the Aleutians. Low pressure over the Gulf will allow for increased
cloud cover over much of Southcentral with showers throughout the
week. A Bering Sea low will slowly track eastward bringing
periods of rain and gusty winds for the Aleutians before crossing
the island chain and getting swept into more dominant westerly
flow aloft.

High pressure system over the central Bering Sea will result in
generally fair weather for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest
Alaska, but these areas could still see afternoon showers
developing along the western slopes of the higher terrain.

The track of the Bering low becomes more uncertain late in the
next week. Model consensus remains fairly high as the Bering Sea
low moves towards the Aleutians midweek, but confidences lowers
with the position of the upper low as it begins to cross the
Aleutians by late in the week.

-SS/PP

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
chance of showers, and potential thunderstorm activity in the
vicinity of the terminal this afternoon and evening. If a shower
moves over the terminal, expect a brief heavy downpour and gusty
winds. Any activity will be winding down by 06-09Z.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

For Southcentral Alaska:

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Southern, Central,
Western and Northern Susitna Valley and the Lower Matanuska Valley
due to lightning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday.

Discussion: Scattered showers and wet thunderstorms have
developed this afternoon across the Susitna Valley, mainly along
the eastern slopes of the Talkeetnas and west of the Talkeetnas
where temperatures have warmed well into the 70s today. Storm
motion is slow today and to the northwest with time. Although
these storms are producing locally heavy downpours and could drop
some small hail, the primary concern is frequent lightning strikes
outside of areas that see rainfall for potential fire starts.
Storm coverage will likely increase as the afternoon wears on and
begin to decrease late this evening as we lose daytime heating and
associated upper level energy exits the region. A few remnant
showers could linger early Saturday morning. There is medium to
high (70-80%) confidence that the focus for thunderstorm activity
Saturday afternoon will likely shift eastward to the Copper River
Basin, meaning less storm coverage across the Susitna Valley and
lower Matanuska Valley.

For Southwest Alaska:

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for Lime Village due to
lightning until 1 AM AKDT Saturday.

Discussion: The forecast looks on track regarding the Red Flag
Warning in effect through tonight. Scattered wet thunderstorms
are currently developing off the foothills of the Western Alaska
Range in Lime Village, with the expectation that 10 to 15 kt of
steering flow will lead to northwest propagation of thunderstorms
through the evening. Given modeled CAPE ranging from 300-700 J/kg,
these thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds in addition
to frequent lightning. For tomorrow, have increased the footprint
of thunderstorms across the Kuskokwim River corridor from the
coast to Lime Village, but confidence is lower regarding where
there may be widely scattered or perhaps even scattered
thunderstorms. While max surface-based CAPE looks lower for
tomorrow, there looks to be a larger footprint of 200-400 J/kg,
which would likely be sufficient to produce widely scattered
thunderstorms. However, there is poor model agreement regarding
where the highest CAPE will be; as such, have put in a preliminary
area of widely-scattered thunderstorms in Kuskokwim Valley East
and Lime Village where temperatures will likely be warmest and
skies clearest.

-AM/KC

&&

$$