Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

188
FXAK68 PAFC 111309
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday morning)...

Key Messages:

* A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for hot, dry, and windy
  conditions in Central Copper Valley, Southern Copper Valley, and
  McCarthy from Noon AKDT today to 7 PM AKDT this evening.

* Active wet weather pattern continues through the short-term.

Discussion:

An active weather pattern will persist across Southcentral Alaska
through the short-term period. A front currently draped across
Southwest Alaska also extends across Kodiak Island and into the
Southwestern Gulf of Alaska. This front will lift northward
through the day and weaken. The steadiest rains will remain
confined to Kodiak Island with this system. Although the front
weakens, pressure gradients will tighten nonetheless across the
southern Copper River Basin. This will cause an increase in
southerly to southeasterly gap winds through the Copper River
Valley. Along with gusty winds, 40 mph at times this afternoon,
temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 70s with minimum
relative humidities dropping to 20 to 30 percent. Therefore, hot,
dry, and windy conditions are likely across the Central Copper
Valley, Southern Copper Valley, and McCarthy this afternoon into
the early evening where a Red Flag Warning remains in effect.

Elsewhere today, southeast gap winds through Turnagain Arm will
increase today across Anchorage, but not before a southwest sea
breeze develops this afternoon before turning back to the
southeast this evening into tonight. Gusty winds out of the Knik
River Valley also develop today. Light rain lifts up Cook Inlet
and across the Kenai Peninsula with the Eastern Kenai Peninsula
seeing the most rain versus the Western Kenai Peninsula due to the
downslope southeasterly flow across the Kenai Mountains.
Anchorage could see a shower or two this afternoon, but the more
likely time is this evening when southeast flow aloft begins to
diminish. Southerly upslope flow will aid in enhancing showers
across the Northern Susitna Valley north of Talkeetna this
afternoon and evening.

A series of wetter systems move up the Gulf for Sunday and Monday
as a broad 500 mb trough with embedded shortwaves moves across
the area. The result will be more widespread rain to portions of
Southcentral as Kodiak Island dries out. This is particularly the
case for the Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound, and
the Northern Gulf Coast. Anchorage, the Western Kenai Peninsula,
and the Matanuska Valley will also get in more on the rain with
stronger lift helping to bring the rain over the mountains. The
Susitna Valley will also continue to see rain Sunday and Monday as
southerly upslope flow persists. Meanwhile, the Copper River
Basin will remain on the dry side through Sunday. Light rain is
possible Monday across the Basin as the main trough axis lifts
across the area.

Yet another wet system moves to Kodiak Island Tuesday morning.
There is more uncertainty with the progression of this system and
speed of this system. Confidence is highest for the system to be
at least to Kodiak Island by Tuesday morning. There is lower
confidence for the system and rain to north of Kodiak, although
possible. Regardless of where the rain is Tuesday morning,
confidence increases for the rain to spread northward over the
rest of Southcentral through the rest of the day. Stay tuned for
forecast updates as details become more clearer during this active
and wet weather pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Satellite imagery this morning reveals a deepening ~995 mb low
pressure system moving inland across Southwest Alaska. Its front
is draped across interior Southwest Alaska, bringing rain, and at
times, moderate rain showers, from Crooked Creek to Lime Village
and southward to Iliamna. While a baroclinic zone exists at 850 mb
in the wake of the front, 500 mb analysis shows general troughing
over much of the Bering with a robust shortwave trough lifting
northward over Southwest Alaska, both of which is aiding in
strengthening the low. The 300 mb jet is currently parked over the
Aleutian Chain, and contains a mostly east-west oriented jet
streak. This area of low pressure has aligned with the left exit
region, which has reinforced synoptic vertical ascent. As the low
continues its path northward, the jet streak will lose influence
over the low and the further deepening will likely be driven by
vigorous shortwave energy at 500 mb and the 850 mb baroclinic
zone.

A secondary trough axis is also digging southward across the
western Bering Sea, and is poised to bring another round of
rainfall to the Pribilof Islands later this afternoon. Elsewhere,
a wave of low pressure rounding the top of a surface ridge
anchored over the North Pacific moves northward and nears the
Eastern Aleutians this afternoon. Models are in good agreement
that this feature stays south of the Aleutians, but if it does
venture a bit farther north than what the consensus currently
depicts, Sand Point could be clipped with a few rain showers
before it exits into the Gulf. While the wave affecting the
Pribilof Islands moves eastward and inland across Southwest Alaska
through Sunday morning, yet another shortwave, albeit weaker,
moves southward from eastern Russia and over the Bering through
Sunday afternoon.

Meanwhile, the global models show a weak North Pacific low lifts
northward towards the Central Aleutians Sunday afternoon. This low
crosses the Aleutians and moves across the eastern Bering Sea
through Tuesday morning, bringing more rainfall to Southwest
Alaska. Of more interest Tuesday is the prospect of a return of a
theta-e ridge over the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula out
ahead of a digging upper level trough. Marine lightning may become
a threat once again for this time frame, but there is still time
to watch. Stay tuned.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

An active weather pattern will continue across Alaska through
much of next week as a broad longwave trough remains established
over the Mainland, allowing several embedded shortwaves to move
through the flow. Periods of rain will continue across much of
Southwest and Southcentral Alaska Tuesday into midweek, with
locally moderate rainfall possible where stronger disturbances
track inland. Winds will generally remain light across inland
locations, while breezy conditions continue along the Gulf Coast
and adjacent Marine waters.

Farther west, ridging over the Bering Sea early in the period
will gradually shift east as a series of NOrth Pacific lows
approach. This will allow increasing clouds, rain, and
strengthening winds to spread eastward across the Aleutians and
Bering through midweek, with unsettled conditions eventually
expanding into western portions of the Mainland.

Forecast confidence decreases somewhat late in the week as models
differ on the timing and exact track of additional shortwaves and
surface lows. Despite these differences, guidance remains in good
agreement that the overall pattern stays unsettled through
Friday. Another North Pacific low is expected to move into the
Gulf, maintaining widespread cloud cover and periods of rain
across southern Alaska while additional showers continue farther
inland. Gusty coastal winds will accompany the stronger systems,
especially along the Gulf Coast and portions of the Alaska
Peninsula. Temperatures are expected to remain near to slightly
below seasonal normals beneath persist cloud cover and recurring
precipitation.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF
period. Cloud cover gradually increases today as a frontal system
approaches from the west. Southeasterly winds through the
Turnagain Arm intensify this morning as a coastal ridge builds out
ahead of the front. A sea breeze will develop by around noon,
which may cause winds to turn westerly for a few hours this
afternoon before winds switch back to the southeast this evening
and tonight. Rain showers will begin to enter the vicinity this
evening, though downslope flow should prevent most from reaching
the Terminal. More steady showers are expected to fill in early
Sunday morning, which may cause ceilings to dip into MVFR by
tomorrow morning. At the very least, expect ceilings to drop to
around the 5000 foot mark early Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Key Message:

Hot, dry, and, windy conditions likely this afternoon into the
evening hours for portions for portions of the Copper River Basin.

Discussion:

A front lifting through the Gulf of Alaska will help tighten the
pressure gradient across the Copper River Basin this afternoon. In
response, strong gusty southeast winds will develop through the
Copper River Valley. Winds will gust up to 40 mph at times this
afternoon into the evening as temperatures warm to the lower to
middle 70s. The gusty winds will also aid in minimum relative
humidities dropping to 20 to 30 percent this afternoon.
Temperatures will cool back off to the 60s around 7 to 8PM this
evening with minimum relative humidities starting to recover as
well. Southeasterly winds will remain into the evening hours but
will not be as gusty as this afternoon. Expect gusty southeasterly
winds to develop Sunday and Monday afternoons as well but with
cooler temperatures present and higher minimum relative
humidities. The next best chance for light rain to move over the
Copper River Basin will be Monday afternoon as a 500 mb trough
axis moves over the area bringing moisture with it.

&&

$$