Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

089
FXAK68 PAFC 301334
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 AM AKDT Sun Aug 30 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Another system moves across Southcentral late tonight through
Monday, bringing widespread rain to lower elevations and snow to
higher elevations and mountain passes.

- Gusty offshore winds continue this weekend, strongest along the
coast through favored gaps and passes.

- A colder pattern settles across Southcentral Sunday night through
midweek, with near-freezing temperatures and frost possible in
colder inland valleys Tuesday and Wednesday morning.


Discussion:

Much of Southcentral, including along the coast, have remained cloud
free overnight has allowed many areas to fall into the 40s this
morning. There are some exceptions such as Kodiak where increased
cloud cover has kept their temperatures in the 50s and some of the
favored gap flow areas such as Seward, Whittier, and Valdez have
stayed in the 50s given gusty winds early this morning. Temperatures
will warm back up into the 50s and 60s by this afternoon despite
increasing cloud cover through the day.

The next system is on its way and is currently making its way
towards the Seward Peninsula, before it drops across Alaska towards
Prince William Sound by tomorrow afternoon. This Arctic low will be
fairly dynamic as it moves south, and brings much colder air with
it. This means that snow is anticipated for higher elevations and
the mountain passes, including Broad, Tahneta, Isabel, and Thompson
Passes. Snow it also likely along sections of the Denali Highway.
Road temperatures may be warm enough to limit accumulation on road
surfaces, but light accumulations are possible until temperatures
warm back above freezing. For lower elevations, another round of
more widespread rain is expected. Precipitation will initially move
into the Susitna Valley then spread south and east with time as the
low drops south and into the Gulf. The southern end of the Kenai
Peninsula and Kodiak will miss the built of this system; however,
Kodiak will see an embedded system race through with rain just
skirting the southern end of the island. Cooler and drier air is
move in behind the system, helping to clear lingering showers and
cloud cover. With the cooler airmass and clearing skies, Tuesday
morning looks to be the coldest morning since spring with many areas
dropping near, or below, freezing. Areas across the lower Susitna
Valley, Mat Valley, Eagle River/Anchorage, and portions of the
western Kenai should be prepared for patchy to widespread frost
Tuesday morning. Wednesday morning will also be chilly, but frost
potential does not look as widespread as temperatures will moderate
some. As such, actions should be taken now to protect cold
susceptible plants over the next several mornings.

Offshore winds will continue to be gusty over the next several days,
especially through favored gaps and passes.

- PP


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Tonight through Tuesday)...

Active weather returns over Southwest Alaska as a many shortwaves
move over a strong ridge over the Aleutians. The shortwaves will
bring periods of gusty winds and rainfall to the Shemya area, the
Pribilof Islands, and the Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday
morning. Cold air advection and northwesterly flow will enhance
the gap winds through bays and passes in the Alaska Peninsula.

By this afternoon, an upper low north of the Seward Peninsula
will interact with a shortwave, allowing for widespread rainfall
to overspread the Southwest Mainland Sunday morning through Sunday
afternoon. The subsequent shortwaves riding over the ridge
through early next week will bring repeated bursts of rain and
gusty small-craft winds from the Adak and Atka region, through the
Pribilof Islands, and into the Alaska Peninsula. Across the
southern Bering and Aleutian Chain, including those areas under
the ridge from Adak to Unalaska, small-craft winds with gale-force
gusts will become more widespread by Sunday night and persist
through the first half of the week. Fog and low stratus will be
possible over the area of ridging and in-between shortwaves
elsewhere.

Southwest Alaska (apart from the Alaska Peninsula) is expected to
remain mainly dry Monday and Tuesday, other than a chance for
light rain to brush the immediate coast as each shortwave drops
south in the eastern Bering early Tuesday. Reinforced northerly
flow in the wake of the upper low dropping south into the Gulf
will bring more fall- like temperatures, with nighttime and
morning temperatures dropping into the 30s for interior locations.
The ridge will finally begin its progression eastward on Tuesday
as a strong low moves in from the west. Rainfall and gap winds
will taper off over the Alaska Peninsula as the ridge moves over
it. The ridge will also become taller as it moves, so the core of
rain will be pushed north of the Pribilof Islands by Tuesday
afternoon.

JAR/JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

An upper level ridge extending out of the North Pacific, through
the eastern Bering Sea and across the Bering Strait will still be
in place on Wednesday. By late Wednesday, the upper-level pattern
looks to become more amplified, with the North Pacific Ridge
moving east and lifting across the Southern Mainland Thursday
morning. The eastward progression of this ridge will allow a
trough over the western Bering to deepen, resulting in a stout
southerly wind flow between the two features. A strong shortwave
will move north along a stalled frontal boundary, leading to the
development of a surface low somewhere between the Pribilofs and
Kuskokwim Delta coast. This feature, along with its surface front,
will drive into Southwest Alaska with another round of heavy rain
and gusty southwesterly winds along the coast for Thursday.

The eastern progression of the upper level ridge and low will
continue through Saturday, at which time the ridge will be in the
eastern Gulf of Alaska. The large upper level low that will be
just east of the Kamchatka Peninsula on Wednesday will have
drifted eastward and encompass the entire Bering Sea by Saturday.
This will usher in southwesterly flow aloft for both the
Southwest mainland and Southcentral by next weekend. This will
also allow the heavy rain in Southwest Alaska on Thursday to
migrate eastward into Southcentral Alaska for Friday into
Saturday.

Model agreement is converging on this solution in regards to the
timing and location of these two main features so confidence in
the forecast is increasing.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist through late tonight. Cloud
deck will increase through the day with ceilings gradually
lowering. Rain showers expected to move into the terminal by 12Z
Monday.

&&


$$