Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

138
FXAK68 PAFC 101335
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
535 AM AKDT Sun May 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

The pattern across Southcentral continues to be mainly affected by
two separate low pressure systems situated to the south and west
of the region this morning. A weakening low in the northern Gulf is
making steady progress towards the northern Gulf Coast, now
passing Middleton Island as its heading curves to the northwest.
Areas of light rain are continuing to spread into the coast in and
around Prince William Sound out ahead of the low. Farther west,
areas of light rain have persisted across the Cook Inlet region
along a deformation axis set up between the Gulf low and a nearly
stalled out upper level low drifting over Southwest. Southeasterly
flow aloft has kept most of Anchorage and the Mat Valley mostly
dry overnight, but radar returns are beginning to fill in to the
west across the southern Susitna Valley.

Overall, the forecast through the first few days of the week ahead
is looking very on track, with little change to overall forecast
thinking. The southern portion of the upper level low still looks
poised to elongate into a shortwave trough that will accelerate
northeast into the Talkeetnas and Susitna Valley by this evening.
A quick but somewhat intense round of rain will follow the trough
north from the southern Kenai Peninsula up into the Mat-Su
Valleys. Cooler air moving in behind the trough passage will lower
snow levels at around the same time rain begins to taper off to
scattered showers, and it would not be too surprising to see
precipitation finish off as wet snow for some spots before it
clears out overnight tonight. Meanwhile, as the Gulf low moves
onshore, expect a coastal ridge to form in its wake, allowing
southerly gap winds to pick up along the Turnagain Arm and out of
the Knik and Copper River Valleys by late this evening.

By Monday, a front associated with a large low pressure system
moving over the Bering Sea will move up into Kodiak Island and the
southwestern Gulf. The coastal gradient out ahead of this system
will continue to strengthen throughout the day, leading to
blustery conditions for much of the Mat Valley, Anchorage and
Copper River Basin as gap winds intensify. Gusty southeast winds
should shut off by the late evening across most of Anchorage as a
down-inlet pressure gradient develops ahead of the front lifting
up towards the mouth of the Cook Inlet. Strong downslope flow will
keep most of the interior valleys dry, while steady rain driven
up upslope flow continues relentlessly along the northern Gulf
Coast. The front will continue to move closer to the Gulf Coast on
Tuesday, keeping many of the same areas along the coast and near
Prince William Sound on the wet side.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A large upper level low continues to spin over Bristol Bay, the
Kuskokwim Coast, and the Kuskokwim Delta this morning, which has
brought snow showers to the region. The low itself is trying to
become more elongated as its trough envelope takes a negative
tilt. Persistent deformation precipitation across the eastern most
areas of the Southwest Interior will begin to decrease through
the early afternoon hours as an upper low moving over the Gulf
coast opens into a shortwave trough. 03z or so this afternoon is
when the guidance also lifts the Southwest Alaska upper level low
out of the region - also as a shortwave trough. As synoptic upper
level support retreats northward and temperatures warm through the
morning/early afternoon, convective shower activity across the
Kuskokwim Coast/Delta will mix with or change to rain and decrease
in coverage. Meanwhile, as a Kamchatka small craft front sweeps
across Amchitka and Adak this morning with rainfall and gusty
winds, it will be on a weakening trend as it moves eastward due to
its parent low weakening as well. As the large low gains latitude
and moves across the southern Bering, Kamishak gap winds look to
develop Tuesday morning as easterly winds funnel through the
terrain and move along a corridor just west of Iliamna.

-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement early on with an
active and progressive pattern through the long term forecast.
Models become somewhat divergent at the end of the week which
suggests lower confidence towards the end of the forecast period.

A low pressure system will remain positioned over the southern
Bering Sea early in the period, driving moist southerly flow into
the northern Gulf of Alaska. This will bring enhanced rainfall and
mountain snow to Southcentral Alaska particularly from the
eastern Alaska Peninsula, across the Kenai Peninsula and into the
Prince William Sound region, through Thursday morning. The low
will gradually weaken, but a second system is forecasted to
approach the northern Gulf and Alaska Peninsula later in the week,
bringing another round of precipitation to these same coastal
areas at the start of the weekend. Across the Bering Sea and
Aleutian islands, the initial low will maintain generally active
marine conditions, though widespread heavy precipitation is not
expected in the far western zones.

Deeper moisture associated with the first low will support
heavier rainfall totals along the Southcentral coast and heavy
snow accumulations in the higher terrain through the latter half
of the week. Some gap winds may develop through the Alaska Range
early on but are not expected to reach hazardous strength.
Overall, the pattern favors periods of unsettled weather across
Southcentral and Western Alaska, with potential for significant
mountain snow in favored spots and additional coastal rain as the
second low arrives towards the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR cloud ceilings are possible late this morning/early
this afternoon as rain showers move in. Winds will switch to
southerly and ramp up to 15 knots gusting up to 25 knots as the
Turnagain Arm wind bends over the terminal.

&&


$$