Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

763
FXAK68 PAFC 180122
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
522 PM AKDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The low pressure system in the Gulf continues to weaken as it
moves toward the northeastern Gulf coast -- near Yakutat. As a
result, any light showers remaining in Prince William Sound this
afternoon will pull away toward the Panhandle tonight. Strong
offshore flow will develop briefly through Whittier and Seward,
with gusts to 30 mph tonight. Cooler, drier air will spill in
behind the front, reducing cloud cover and dropping overnight lows
near-to-below freezing across much of the region. Sunday should
be a relatively calm day across Southcentral, with partly sunny
skies and seasonal temperatures.

Attention turns to Monday as a more impactful system impacts the
region. A front from a Bering low pushes SW to NE across the Gulf,
reaching Kodiak Island by Sunday night, the northern Gulf coast
by Monday morning, and continuing inland by mid-day. Depending on
how cool temperatures get when the front arrives, there is a
slight chance (30%) for light snow accumulations (T - 1.0")
across the western Kenai. There is higher confidence (80%) for
accumulations across the Susitna Valley, ranging from 1.0" - 3.0".
The higher elevations (>2,000 ft) see mostly snow from this
event. Any snow showers across the lower terrain will quickly
transition to rain as temperatures warm during the day. Moderate
to heavy rain showers will continue across the northeastern Gulf
coast through the afternoon hours.

Forecast confidence dwindles Tuesday as a more robust upper-level
trough spins up a relatively deep Gulf low. While this system
takes a similar trajectory as the last, great uncertainty exists
in how far east/west the system translates. The GFS solution
brings the low farther west into Prince William Sound, which would
bring more widespread precipitation to the region on Tuesday. The
NAM and Canadian have the low farther east, keeping stronger
precipitation to the east and out of of Southcentral.

-CW

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A rapidly decaying front over the eastern Bering Sea will move
inland early this evening, but expected to have very little
impact for Southwest Alaska. A second, separate front moves
rapidly along its heels, developing over the Central Aleutians
this afternoon and tracking across the Bering Sea/Aleutian Chain
through tonight, bringing rain to Adak and Atka as it does so.
Expect another round of wet and windy weather over Unalaska to
Pribilofs tonight. The front reaches the Southwest Coast early
Sunday morning, rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow
returns. As moisture spreads inland, precipitation will initially
start as snowfall for many along interior Bristol Bay and the
Lower Kuskokwim Valley. However, warmer air tracking in behind the
system will mitigate how pronounced the snowfall will be,
transitioning the precipitation to a rain/snow mix. Through
Monday, areas such as Sleetmute and Crooked Creek may get 1 to 3
inches of snow, however accumulations at the surface will likely
melt in the daytime hours. Confidence remains largely unchanged
regarding snowfall expectation, still low-to-moderate (30% to
50%) given the dependency on local temperatures.

Out west, a lobe of tropical energy will be swinging up into the
Western Aleutians, bringing up the chance for isolated
thunderstorms over Shemya and Attu as well as the surrounding
marine areas. This energy is expected to shift northward into the
Western Bering and dissipate through Sunday night into Monday
morning. By Monday morning, there is a chance for some of this
energy to persist over the Pribilofs area, so there is a slight
chance for some isolated thunderstorms in the area early Monday
morning.

CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7, Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term forecast starts on Tuesday with a low moving into
the Gulf of Alaska. Gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain are
expected for lower elevations. Snowfall is expected for higher
elevations. The low will remain stationary until it dissipates on
Thursday, with continued precipitation until then. Winds will
slowly diminish as the low weakens. Meanwhile, weak ridging builds
into the Bering on Tuesday. This, along with cold air advection
means that scattered rain/snow showers could form and move into
the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as the colder air moves over
the relatively warmer waters. Otherwise, less activity and calmer
winds are expected through Thursday morning. By Thursday
afternoon, a strong front pushes into the Bering. Gusty gale force
winds and moderate to heavy rainfall are expected with this
front. Friday sees the source of the front, a low, move into the
Bering, bringing more gusty winds and rainfall. The front pushes
into the Southwest Mainland by Friday afternoon, bringing gusty
winds and rainfall to the coast. We are monitoring the direction
of these gusty winds to see they may increase water levels along
the coastal Kuskokwim Delta.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A few lingering light rain showers drifting near the
terminal will dissipate by this evening. Some remaining patches
of low stratus could occasionally still bring ceilings down into
MVFR range this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and light winds will persist through Sunday afternoon.

&&


$$