Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

874
FXAK68 PAFC 021353
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKDT Sun Aug 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry conditions today through Sunday morning then a shift
back to cooler and wetter for a good portion of Southcentral for
early next week.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Copper River Valley
through this evening.

- Flood Watch now in effect for the eastern Kenai Peninsula from
Monday night through Thursday morning, due to heavy rain.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for Susitna and lower Matanuska
Valleys from Tuesday morning through Friday morning, due to heavy
rain.

Discussion:

Today will be the last hot and dry day for many locations across
Southcentral as the pattern shifts back to cool, wet, and cloudy by
Monday and Tuesday. The stout ridge of high pressure that brought
the hot and dry conditions has shifted east with ridge axis over the
Copper Basin and ALCAN border. While still on the warmer side,
western Southcentral will see cooler temperatures as cloud cover
begins to increase today ahead of the incoming system. Being further
east, the Copper Basin will still see abundant sunshine that will
allow the lower elevations and river valleys to once again near 80
degrees this afternoon. Winds will initially start out light, but
will strengthen this afternoon as the gradient over the Chugach
Mountains tightens. The gusty winds combined with the warm
conditions and lower relative humidity values will increase fire
weather concerns for the valley; however, expect the southerly flow
to start advecting more moisture into the Basin later this evening.
The Turnagain Arm and Knik winds will also increase this evening,
remaining gusty through Monday. The current forecast calls for gusts
approaching 60 mph for the Anchorage/Eagle River Hillsides, and
approaching 45 mph for lower elevations of Anchorage/Eagle River and
Copper River Valley.

THe system responsible for this shift back to a wetter pattern is
currently taking shape over the western Bering Sea. Overnight the
next 24 hrs, the upper low transit east towards the western Alaska
coast. This system has tapped in to a modest plume of subtropical
moisture over the North Pacific. This stream of moisture will move
up into Southwest Alaska, spreading north into inland Alaska and
pushing east. Satellite-observed precipitable water (PWAT) values
are reaching as high as 2 to 2.5 inches, and models are placing PWAT
values in the 1 to 2 inch range. Regardless, this is a juicy system
that will bring a period of moderate to heavy rain beginning late
Monday and continuing through at least midweek. The Susitna Valley
will see another of rainfall totaling 2.5 to 5 inches, which will
allow river levels to once again increase with crests likely
occurring Wednesday or Wednesday night.

Moderate to heavy rainfall is also anticipated across the eastern
Kenai Peninsula with rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches possible in
Seward as favorable southerly flow establishes for a good portion of
the event. Flooding concerns remain marginal for Seward and
surrounding areas, but could see river levels rise and ponding in
low spots.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

A low moving northeast toward Saint Lawrence Island will project
its front into the Southwest mainland today, bringing widespread
rain and wind across the region lasting through Tuesday.
Southerly to southwesterly small-craft winds are expected across
the Bering through Monday, with smaller areas of gale force winds
are expected between the Rat Islands to Kuskokwim Bay. Heaviest
rainfall will occur tonight into Monday for the Kuskokwim Delta
and western Bristol Bay and Monday into Tuesday for the western
Alaska Range and AKPen. For the Aleutians, lighter rainfall (less
than 0.5 inches) is expected and will taper off through the day
on Monday.

The low slows near Saint Lawrence Island Monday morning before
continuing to the Seward Peninsula. This will continue to draw
waves of precipitation across Southwest and the AKPen through
Tuesday. Rainfall accumulation of 1-2 inches are expected between
Sunday morning and Tuesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts
(2-3 inches) possible around Togiak and for higher terrain,
particularly along the western Alaska Range/Kuskokwim Valley.
Small-craft winds will persist between the Pribilof Islands and
Nunivak Island through Tuesday while weakening elsewhere.

Small-craft to gale force winds oriented perpendicular to the
shore, with a fetch that extends across the Bering, could push
water levels 1-3 feet above normal high tides during this period,
especially around Kuskokwim Bay. Surge will be monitored closely
through Tuesday.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

An active and progressive weather pattern will remain in place
through the long term as a broad upper low lingers over Alaska.
Several embedded shortwaves rotating around the parent circulation
will move northeast across Southcentral through the week,
supporting widespread rainfall and rounds of showers and keeping
conditions generally cool and unsettled. The Bering is expected to
predominantly have ridging with occasional shortwaves moving
through. This means that widespread low stratus and fog is
expected with intermittent rainfall and elevated winds for
the Bering. While confidence remains high in the overall pattern,
uncertainty increases later in the week regarding the timing and
placement of individual shortwaves and associated precipitation.

By Wednesday, another shortwave rotating around the upper low will
pull moisture up from the North Pacific into Southcentral Alaska.
This will lead to widespread rainfall over the Southcentral
Coastline and Prince William Sound. Some moisture may make it into
inland areas such as the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the
Mat-Su, but this will depend on the orientation of the shortwave.
Southwest Alaska will see scattered showers with the Bering seeing
low stratus and fog. Gusty southerly winds will move through gap
areas north of Kodiak Island. Thursday and Friday are similar
with the upper trough progressing eastward and continued moisture
being pulled into Southcentral Alaska. More shower activity is
expected over Southwest Alaska with even more low stratus and fog
in the Bering. Wind speeds will weaken at this point and will be
on the lighter side across Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.

There is much uncertainty by Saturday with regards to the
positions of features. The upper low is expected to move eastward,
but the exact track is unknown at this point. Depending on where
it moves, more or less rainfall will fall in Southcentral Alaska.
Also, in the Bering, some kind of low or trough will move in,
leading to an increase in rainfall and wind speeds, but there is
much uncertainty on how these features will develop.

-JAR/LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will likely prevail through the TAF
period. However, another southerly push of maritime air is
expected to bring fog/low stratus up the Cook Inlet this morning.
While this marine stratus will likely remain to the west of the
terminal, there is a slight chance it pushes into the airport. If
this occurs, it could bring IFR ceilings and visibility
reductions for a brief period. Light westerly winds will shift
southeasterly and intensify by the late afternoon/early evening as
a Turnagain Arm wind develops. Winds will steadily increase
through the evening/overnight hours, with gusts to 30 kts possible
by tomorrow morning.


&&


$$