Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

882
FXAK68 PAFC 081237
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKDT Fri May 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

More cool, cloudy and rainy weather is expected through the
weekend as Southcentral gets sandwiched between an upper low over
Southwest and a broad surface and upper level low over the north
Gulf and Pacific. Precipitation will be fairly widespread starting
late this evening and continuing through the overnight hours as a
leading shortwave north of the Gulf low moves inland. This will
push into the Interior on Saturday, giving inland areas a bit of
reprieve from the rain while steady light rain from the Gulf storm
blankets coastal areas. For Sunday, the remaining upper level
energy from the Gulf low will move over Southcentral and merge
with the now broadened low over Southwest Alaska. Both will lift
inland late Sunday, producing another round of rain and mountain
snow as cold air moves back in from the southwest.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This morning through Monday morning)...

An upper level low will continue to dig south for the rest of
today as it moves over the Kuskokwim Valley. This system will be
accompanied by cold air aloft and an unstable airmass. Shower
coverage looks to expand for Friday to include the interior
Bristol Bay mountain ranges and along the Kuskokwim Mountains as
well. For Saturday, a North Pacific low will lift into Gulf of
Alaska. This low will interact with the upper-level low over the
Kuskokwim Valley and help to produce a deformation precipitation
band over Saturday morning. As the upper-level low over the
Kuskokwim Valley drifts west to the Kuskokwim Delta the rest of
the day Saturday, this deformation band will also drift west into
interior Southwest. Precipitation intensity within this band
Saturday evening through Sunday morning could be enough to bring
cold air aloft down to the surface. Therefore, light snow is
possible from Sleetmute to Iliamna Saturday evening through Sunday
morning. Precipitation will continue to linger along the interior
through Sunday.

Farther out west, a frontal boundary over Adak and Atka will
continue to decay through Saturday morning as showers will begin
to taper off by then. A ridge over the northern Bering extending
into the central Bering will continue to weaken and break down
through Saturday as it retreats to Siberia. This will open the
door for a more progressive pattern across the Bering as a low
just south of Kamchatka Saturday afternoon sends its front to the
western Bering and Western Aleutians by Saturday evening. This
front does not look overly strong with patchy low-end gales
possible along the western Bering and Western Aleutian Chain.
Moderate rain will accompany this front as it moves over Shemya.
This front then moves to and spreads light rain over Adak/Atka by
Sunday morning as it continues to weaken. The front and associated
light rain eventually moves to Nikolski/Unalaska by Sunday
evening.

-AM/DN

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Models continue to remain in fair agreement on an active and
progressive pattern through the long term forecast. A strong front
pushes through the Aleutian Islands Monday, attached to an
Aleutian low. This progresses eastward to the AK Pen by Tuesday
afternoon, Kodiak Island Wednesday night, then reaching the Gulf
by Thursday. Periods of wind and rain will be generated along the
path of the low, including the Northern Gulf Coast.

Another Aleutian low, not as strong as the previous one, inters
the region Wednesday afternoon. There is significant disagreement
on the track of the low. However, there is an upper level low over
the Western Aleutians that will influence the surface low to take
a more northerly track.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions to persist through the period. Turnagain
winds early this morning are settling down and getting replaced by
light east to northeast winds as a down inlet gradient sets up.
Some lingering vicinity showers are possible but general thinking
is for activity to remain west and over the inlet, likely
dissipating through the rest of this afternoon. Rain chances
gustier north winds then return late tonight/early Saturday with
the arrival of a Gulf front.

-BL

&&
$$