Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

801
FXAK68 PAFC 070023
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKDT Sun Sep 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The first half of this week will see two significant upper level
waves, both anchored to the upper level low in the northern
Bering Sea, move through southern Alaska. These upper level
disturbances will bring some windier and wetter conditions as they
pass through the region. The first system currently has a weak
surface low centered near Bristol Bay with a front extending
across southern Cook Inlet and into the Gulf of Alaska. This front
is weakening as it slowly moves northward through tonight and
into Monday morning. This system expected to bring light rain to
most of the region overnight. Southeasterly winds along the Kenai
Mountains and western Chugach Mountains will provide a downslope
component for Anchorage and portions of inland and western Kenai
Peninsula, but it will not be enough to shut off the rain, but
should keep it light. The southerly winds along the Copper River
this afternoon through the evening should be more effective in
keeping the lower elevations of the Copper River Basin dry.
However, as these winds diminish overnight some light rainfall is
expected to develop in this area as well.

The second system is stronger in general and has a surface low
centered in the Western Aleutians this afternoon. This surface
low will also weaken some as it tracks eastwards and moves onshore
in the Kuskokwim Delta , but the upper level wave will track over
Southcentral Alaska late Monday night. However, the upper level
trough will continue to move eastward over Southcentral Alaska
through Tuesday. This will bring another round of widespread
rain to the region. Turnagain Arm winds will bend into Anchorage
Monday evening, with wind gusts expected to range from 15 to 30
mph. Copper River winds will also increase again for Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning, but as they diminish, rainfall
should increase for the Copper River Basin as well on Tuesday.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Wednesday)...

A long-wave trough remains entrenched over the Bering Sea. A
subtropical jet streak of 130kt+ on the leading edge of the
trough extends from southwest to northeast from the north-central
Pacific to the Aleutians and southeastern Bering Sea. No surprise,
the current storm track is right along this general corridor.

The first storm which tracked along the Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula yesterday through last night is now lifting across
Bristol Bay as a weak low. A negatively tilted upper level short-
wave trough is lifting northeastward toward Southwest AK, leading
to widespread light rain and coll temperatures.

Storm #2 has been deepening today as it approaches the Aleutian
chain from the south thanks to a digging short-wave trough
upstream and proximity of the subtropical jet. The most impactful
weather is being observed from around Amchitka Island to Seguam
Island, with widespread winds of 25 to 35 kt (29 to 40 mph) across
area coastal waters and light to moderate rain. In between these
two storms, benign weather prevails.

The forecast for the next few days is mostly on track. The biggest
change was to strengthen winds with the Aleutian low as is tracks
east-northeast across the Aleutians and southern Bering tonight
through Monday and into Southwest AK Monday night. All model
guidance has trended toward a deeper low center and a bit further
north low track. Southwest AK will remain cool and wet through
Tuesday, with very little space between the current storm and
storm #2.

The upper flow de-amplifies and becomes more progressive Monday
night through Tuesday, with the Bering trough exiting to
Southcentral and the Gulf and a ridge building over the Bering
Sea. Aside from lingering showers over Southwest AK, Tuesday
looks like a quiet weather day across the Bering Sea and
Aleutians. All eyes will then shift to a potentially more
impactful storm for later in the week. On Wednesday, a large and
deep low will track near the Kamchatka Peninsula and
northeastward toward the Arctic, sending a strong frontal system
eastward across the Bering Sea.

-SEB

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The upper level pattern becomes increasingly amplified to begin
the long term period as a strong upper level Kamchatka low opens
to a trough in the western Bering while a strengthening upper
ridge slides east across the Mainland. Ensemble model guidance
remains in fairly good agreement for the associated surface low
over Kamchatka to track northeast across far eastern Siberia and
eventually into the Arctic Ocean by Friday. Its associated small-
craft to gale-force front moves east across the Bering through
midweek with gusty southwesterly winds and moderate to heavy
rainfall across the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands.

The front is set to reach the Southwest Alaska coast Thursday
into Friday, spreading the gusty winds and moderate to heavy
rainfall across the western Mainland. The long fetch of strong,
southwesterly onshore winds could bring the possibility of high
surf and minor coastal flooding and erosion along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast as the front progresses through the region.
Additionally, widespread moderate to potentially heavy rainfall
across Southwest Alaska will accompany this system as it taps into
a robust stream of subtropical Pacific moisture. Elevated water
levels in the Kuskokwim River due to preceding rainfall across the
Interior, combined with strong southwesterly winds up Kuskokwim
Bay and additional rainfall, could lead to minor river flooding
for communities along the river from Bethel southwards. Details
will continue to become clearer in the coming days on the exact
timing and potential impacts of this upcoming late-week storm.

By the weekend, weaker, more zonal flow takes over the Bering
while the weakening frontal system and rainfall continues east
into Southcentral and the Gulf. Expect unsettled, showery weather
to continue across the Bering, Southwest, and Southcentral through
the weekend into early next week as weak upper level
perturbations move through the region.

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...Light rainfall is expected this afternoon through early
Monday morning. Exact timing for rainfall will depend on the
strength of downslope drying. Highest probabilities for
precipitation will be 02Z to 10Z. VFR ceilings will likely hover
around between 4000 to 6000 feet with intermittent drops to 3500
feet during steadier rainfall and towards Monday morning. Surface
winds at the terminal will be light and generally between the
north to southeast. Relatively stronger southeast winds through
Turnagain Arm are expected to bend down-Inlet away from the
terminal.

&&


$$