Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

487
FXAK68 PAFC 170125
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
425 PM AKST Mon Feb 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Thursday evening)...

Satellite imagery this afternoon reveals mostly clear conditions
across mainland Southcentral with clouds building to the west and
over Kodiak Island. The cloudiness building in stems from a large
Bering Sea system which is currently pushing a front inland of
Southwest Alaska. If conditions stay clearer this evening and
tonight, fog and low stratus are possible across the upper Western
Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, Mat-Su Valleys, and into the Copper
River Basin as well. However, if upper-level cloud cover moves in
quicker, fog and low stratus development could be hindered.

As this front moves to the southwestern Gulf later tonight, a
triple- point low will spin up south of Kodiak Island in the early
Tuesday morning hours. This low looks to also track south of
Kodiak Island which will promote a mostly snow scenario for the
island with cold air remaining in place. Anywhere on the Island
looks to see between 2 to 4 inches of snow out of this system
before it moves out by mid- morning Tuesday. Brief light snow is
also likely in Homer Tuesday morning. North of Homer, the
precipitation chance becomes much lower due to the bulk of the
moisture remaining south over Kodiak Island. Do not be surprised
to see a few flurries across Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula
north of Homer early Tuesday morning. This system then quickly
moves south and is out of the area by late morning Tuesday.

A ridge moves in behind the departing low for Tuesday afternoon
through the first half of Wednesday. Depending, again, on cloud
cover, low stratus and fog are possible for the same areas as
tonight for Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. This ridge
axis will quickly move east through Wednesday. As the ridge moves
east, Southcentral will enter southwesterly flow aloft. With weak
waves embedded within the flow, light snow will be possible across
Anchorage, the Hillside, as well as Palmer, and across the Kenai
Peninsula Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. There are
still questions on precipitation amounts though. Some guidance is
almost completely dry while other guidance is on the wetter side.
With this, trended towards light amounts over the areas mentioned
above. The waves affecting Anchorage, Mat-Su Valleys, et-cetera,
will continue to move eastward through Wednesday night and deliver
the Copper River Basin some light snow.

Towards the end of the short-term, a strong push of cold air,
originating from Siberia, will drop southeastward across first
across Western Alaska Wednesday afternoon and make its way to
Southcentral Alaska for Thursday afternoon and into the weekend.
This episode of cold air advection looks much stronger than the
cold air advection witnessed today. So with this, trended up gap
winds Thursday evening through Passage Canal, Resurrection Bay,
Valdez Narrows, and Thompson Pass significantly. Stay tuned to
forecast updates especially with the snow chances Wednesday and
the impending cold air advection starting Thursday and into the
weekend.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA / BERING SEA / ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

A stout front moved onshore of the Kuskokwim Coast this morning.
The current blizzard warnings for the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and
Nunivak Island appear to be on track. Visibilities have been down
to a quarter mile or less in both Toksook Bay and Kipnuk, and
winds have been gusting anywhere from 35 to 50 mph. In Mekoryuk,
webcams show ongoing whiteout conditions. Snow and gusty winds
will continue spread further inland through this evening, with the
heaviest snow for interior portions of the Kuskokwim Delta to
occur after 9pm, and taper off after midnight.The worst conditions
further inland are expected to the north and northwest of Bethel,
including the communities of Kasigluk and Nunapitchuk. Snow
expands southward into Bristol Bay tonight with snow accumulations
ranging from 3 to 5 inches. A winter weather advisory remains in
effect for the Bristol Bay coast as winds gusting from 20 to 30
mph will bring visibilities down to one half mile or less at
times.

As one front departs the region to the east later tonight, a
second front arrives into the Kuskokwim Delta on Tuesday. Another
round of winds, this time out of the south, are set to impact the
Kuskokwim Delta along with light snow. This second system won`t be
as strong as Monday`s blizzard producing storm, but snow and
blowing snow will still be possible and a winter weather advisory
product or products may be needed after the expiration of the
ongoing blizzard warning tonight. Further complicating the
forecast is the addition of a warm nose working its way into the
coast Tuesday afternoon. This may allow for a brief period of
mixed precipitation along the Kuskokwim Delta Coast and Bristol
Bay Coast for a 2 to 4 hour period. Colder air behind the passing
front will quickly usher in cooler temperatures to the region with
any mixed precipitation becoming all snow. Total snow
accumulations will be much lighter than on Monday, with a dusting
to an inch across portions of the Bristol Bay, to up to 2 to 3
inches for parts of the Kuskokwim Delta through tomorrow night.

Wednesday and Thursday will see a much colder and drier airmass
move into the region from the northwest. Afternoon high
temperatures on Thursday will drop into the teens and then down
into the single digits on Friday.

BL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Friday through Monday)...

An upper level trough moving across western Alaska is expected to
dip south into the Gulf on Friday. This will transition the
pattern to a more amplified setup, with strong ridging building
over the Bering while a deeper trough develops across the Gulf of
Alaska. The trough will bring in an arctic airmass, spreading
across much of the Southwest and into Southcentral Alaska.

Conditions tend drier from Friday into the weekend as the ridge
strengthens. Clearing combined with cold air in place will support
radiational cooling and colder overnight lows. In addition,
northerly winds are expected to increase through most coastal gaps
along the Gulf coast as cold dense air moves south towards lower
pressure in over the Gulf. Although confidence in strength and
timing remains low at this time, the communities of Valdez,
Seward, and the Matanuska Valley will likely see strong winds
through the weekend.

By late Sunday into Monday, the ridge begins to shift east as a
new low moves into the Bering Sea. Precipitation chances may begin
to return to the western portions of Alaska, though confidence in
timing remains low.

LM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds will prevail
through the TAF period. Vicinity fog is possible again this
evening; however, the extent of any fog will be highly dependent
on the amount of high cloud cover moving over the terminal
beginning tonight. A few flurries are possible overnight tonight
into early Tuesday morning.

&&

$$