Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

004
FXAK68 PAFC 011342
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
542 AM AKDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Another cold night is expected again Wed morning, especially for
  coldest prone locations (Butte, Muldoon, Campbell Tract, and the
  Eagle River Valley) with temperatures approaching freezing.
  Temperatures will depend on cloud cover. The main concern is for
  cold and frost sensitive outdoor plants/vegetation. The Frost
  Advisory was extended for an additional night. A trend toward
  seasonable temperatures is expected for the last half of the
  week.

- Gusty offshore winds continue over the next few days with the
  strongest winds along the coast and through gaps and passes.

Discussion:

Isolated pockets of cold temperatures were observed this morning
for coldest prone locations in the western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage, and Matanuska Valley. The frost advisory will remain in
effect until 9AM AKDT Wednesday. Frost and colder than normal
temperatures will continue to be a concern for sensitive outdoor
plants. Protect, move, or cover those plants for an additional
morning should skies be clear during the coldest part of the
morning. Frost potential will depend on cloud cover. If conditions
stay more on the clear side, the airmass looks to be very similar
to tonight/early Tuesday morning with more frost potential. If
there are more clouds present, this will prevent radiational
cooling from fully taking effect and thus lower frost potential.
Temperatures look to trend to more seasonable temperatures
Thursday onward as a ridge will start to build and high clouds
start to filter across Southcentral.

Gap winds, but especially through Whittier and Seward, will
remain elevated for the next few days as flow will remain out of
the northwest. Gusts may relent somewhat this afternoon near
Seward as the low in the eastern Gulf moves onto the North Pacific
and higher pressure builds across the area. The sea breezes may
briefly shift winds during the warmest part of this afternoon for
coastal communities, but northerly offshore winds will prevail by
this evening.

For Wednesday, a shortwave digs south from Central Alaska to
northeastern portions of the Copper River Basin. This feature will
be pretty moisture starved, but a few showers are not out of the
question for Wednesday afternoon. A strong upper-level ridge
builds in for Thursday as all of Southcentral remains dry. The
next weather system to watch will come from the Bering Friday and
this weekend as the pattern will switches from dry to wet. Models
differ with the onset timing of its arrival. The earliest spill
over could begin as early as Thursday night.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A broad low is currently situated just west of Attu and will
remain quasi-stationary through Wednesday afternoon before slowly
beginning to meander across the northern edge of the Bering Sea.
Multiple troughs/fronts will work their way across the Bering over
the next few days. The first front is arcing over top of a ridge
sitting over the southern Bering Sea, between Amchitka and Port
Heiden, and stretching just south of the Pribilof Island. The
front is expected to graze the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Western
Capes today, bringing a round of light rain showers to the area.
The second front pushes over the Central Aleutians this afternoon,
bringing a round of gale force winds and rain showers. This front
will shove the ridge eastward towards the Gulf of Alaska through
Thursday morning. The core of gale force winds will also track
eastward, moving over the Eastern Aleutians and southern Alaska
Peninsula Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Additionally,
while there remains some uncertainty, small craft to gale force
winds may hold on as the front pushes the Southwest Coast,
particularly along the Kuskokwim Delta coast and Western Capes
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Light to moderate
rain showers are expected to persist along the front.

KM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The long-term period looks to remain active, especially across
Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and the Aleutian Chain. With a
ridge axis anchored over Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska, and
a complex low pressure system spinning about in the central Bering
Sea, Southwest Alaska appears to be the more active of the areas.

Across Southcentral Alaska, the ridge will be overhead for much
of Friday with relatively quiet weather anticipated. The ridge
moves east to the eastern Gulf of Alaska and into Yukon, Canada
Friday evening which will open the door to southwest flow aloft.
Steady rain from Southwest will move into Southcentral through
late Friday as a plethora of shortwaves lift up and over the area
from North Pacific and Gulf. Showers continue over Southwest, the
Aleutian Chain, and Southcentral for Saturday as a broad upper-
level trough remains in the Bering and southwest flow aloft
remains across Southcentral.

A series of several shortwaves spinning around the complex low in
the Bering will move from the Bering into Southwest Alaska Friday
and Saturday. By late Saturday, a compact low entering from the
northern Gulf will enter the southeastern Bering Sea with the
chance to swing into Southwest Alaska. Model agreement is poor
regarding the progression of this feature, however it may bring a
more condensed push of rainfall into the area. Also, depending on
the orientation of the southwest winds into Southwest Alaska,
coastal concerns in the Kuskokwim Delta remain present as a
possibility, but we will continue to monitor it`s progress.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR with light winds throughout the TAF period.

&&


$$