Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

370
FXAK68 PAFC 150110
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 PM AKDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Sunday night through Wednesday evening)...

***Key Messages:

- Strong southeast winds continue this evening and begin to weaken
  overnight.

- Showery precipitation along the Gulf coast tapers off Monday
  morning. Rain continues around Kodiak Island through Tuesday.

- Calm conditions are expected across most of Southcentral going
  into the middle of the week.

- Chance for isolated showers in the northern Copper River Basin
  and Gulf Coast Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday.


Discussion:

A front moving into the Gulf Coast associated with a vertically
stacked low over the Alaska Peninsula (AkPen) has resulted in
gale- force winds across the Northern Gulf through the Barren
Islands and up to 0.5 inches of rain along the coast today. Strong
southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph have also
developed through the Turnagain Arm into the Anchorage Hillside
and at higher elevations of the Chugach Front Range and Kenai
Mountains.

The low over the AkPen begins to weaken tonight and the front
dissipates along the Gulf coast. Winds will slowly subside across
coastal Southcentral overnight. A coastal ridge will build in
Monday and allow some gap winds to persist. Though not as strong
as today, some small-craft winds may persist through the Barren
Islands and Kamishak Gap. Gusty winds through the Turnagain Arm
may continue to bend into South Anchorage through Monday evening.

A series of shortwaves will continue to rotate around the low
through Tuesday and maintain mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions
across Southcentral. The first ones moving through tonight will
continue to bring showery precipitation to the Gulf Coast. A
secondary wave looks to move over Kodiak Island Monday. Rain
tapers off Monday morning for the Gulf Coast and Tuesday morning
for Kodiak Island. Additional rainfall amounts up to 0.5 inches
along the Gulf coast and 0.5-1 inches around Kodiak Island are
expected.

Going into the middle of the week, low pressure moves from the
AkPen into the southwestern Gulf while weak ridging tries to
build over southern Alaska. This will promote a slightly warmer
and drier pattern for most of Southcentral with a mix of clouds
and sunshine as well as light winds. Isolated showers in higher
elevations are possible Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon,
with conditions most favorable in the northern Copper River Basin
and along the Gulf Coast. More scattered showers are possible
along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday, especially if the low in
the Gulf is further north than expected.

- PA


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday afternoon)...

As of this afternoon, a broad surface trough anchors two distinct
areas of low pressure - with one mostly stationary and just south
of Sand Point and Chignik with another situated over the Bristol
Bay waters. Radar returns depict widespread showers across
Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula pivoting around the
northern most area of low pressure. Instability has been limited
due to temperatures stuck in the 50s and cloud cover for much of
the region, but there has been enough instability/warming in the
Kuskokwim Valley to touch off quite a few lightning strikes this
afternoon. This activity is very isolated in nature and should be
fairly short lived through the rest of the evening.

Looking westward, vertically stacked high pressure is centered
over the Western Aleutians with ridging extending eastward over
the Bering. The surface pressure gradient between this ridging and
the troughing across Southwest Alaska has formed a wide swath of
stout northerly 25 knot winds that have been moving across the
Pribilof Islands today. Northerly gap winds across the Aleutian
Chain have been elevated as well and will most likely stay that
way through tomorrow afternoon.

With the troughing not moving much over the next 12 to 16 hours,
rain shower activity will persist for Southwest Alaska through
Monday morning. There is high confidence of an additional tenth to
a quarter inch of rainfall, mainly west of the Kuskokwim Valley
through Monday morning. The global models show that the
aforementioned ridge begins to move eastward Monday afternoon,
which will essentially cause the low south of Sand Point and
Chignik to gain momentum and move eastward with time/exit the
region. There is good agreement among the global and hi-res models
that much of the rain shower coverage further decreases Tuesday
morning across Southwest Alaska, with only a chance of showers
expected Tuesday afternoon with the surface low moving into the
Gulf.

As the low exits, the ridging moves eastward and takes control of
the west-central Bering through Wednesday morning, keeping fog
and low stratus in the Bering through the rest of the short term.

-AM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Southcentral: An upper level ridge over the Eastern Gulf of
Alaska moves eastward and a low south of Kodiak Island gradually
migrates northeastward. These will bring southerly flow to
Southcentral and Kodiak Island resulting in steady rain for Prince
William Sound and Eastern Alaska Peninsula Wednesday and
Thursday. The dry trend further inland Wednesday into Friday
remains 60% likely as models persistently show a cutoff of
moisture in the Anchorage Bowl, Western Kenai Peninsula and Mat-
Su Valleys.

As the week progresses though, the chance for thunderstorms and
rain showers returns for the Copper River Basin Thursday and
Friday. This chance spreads westward into the Susitna Valley next
Saturday and Sunday. Though confidence in both placement and
exact timing of these weather elements from Thursday into next
weekend is low, the deep southerly push of moisture and the
introduction of a westerly-moving ridge from the Yukon is an
indicator of end of week / weekend thunderstorms and showers to
the area. The chance of occurrence over the four days for both the
Copper River Basin and the Susitna Valley though increases as
high pressure in the Yukon strengthens and brings the ridge
farther west.

Southwest, Bering Sea and the Aleutians: A weak low moves across
the Bering Sea and over the Mainland bringing showers and cloudy
conditions mid-week. Fog and decreasing precipitation are expected
next weekend as high pressure builds in the Bering Sea.

-DJ

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect southeast winds to continue gusting near 40 kts
over the terminal through this afternoon and slowly diminish this
evening into the overnight hours. The strong southeast flow will
also keep the majority of rain confined to the coast and keep the
terminal mostly dry. Therefore, VFR conditions are expected to
continue throughout the TAF period. Southeast Turnagain Arm winds
look to clip the terminal once again Monday afternoon. However,
winds Monday afternoon are not expected to be nearly as strong as
today`s winds.

$$