Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

408
FXAK68 PAFC 161318
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
518 AM AKDT Fri Oct 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

A shortwave trough rotating around the north side of the larger
upper low, currently positioned just east of Kodiak Island, resulted
in scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms over the
northern Gulf and coastal areas overnight. This trough will lift
over the Kenai Peninsula a bit later this morning with showers
trying to spill over the Kenai and Chugach Mountains. May see a few
persevere, resulting in some sprinkles or a brief shower, but
overall most of inland Southcentral will see decreasing chances for
precipitation today. However, the coastal zones along the Gulf and
Prince William Sound will continue to see these scattered showers
persist today and Saturday as the upper low and associated long-wave
trough move across the Gulf. Showers may taper briefly before moving
back in as the low approaches tonight. By Saturday morning, the low
will have moved into the northeastern Gulf...allowing showers to
wind down along the coast as off-shore flow takes over. Snow levels
will stay fairly consistent around 2500` as the low translates
across the Gulf, so will still see rain changing over to snow at
higher elevations.

A front will move across the Alaska interior Saturday morning.
Colder northwesterly flow will help to dry things out, but models
are hinting that the front could squeeze out some light
precipitation of the Upper Susitna and Copper Basin. However,
overall confidence is low (20-40%) that any precipitation out of
this frontal passage will amounts to anything too impactful. Cooler
temperatures will move in behind this system with low temperatures
dropping into the teens and 20s for most of inland Southcentral for
Sunday morning.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Showery conditions will continue across Southwest Alaska, Alaska
Peninsula and portions of the central/eastern Bering Sea today as
residual low pressure lingers over the area. Rain is expected to
be the primary precipitation type during the daytime hours,
however, overnight temperatures may dip below freezing, allowing
for any precipitation to fall as snow or a rain/snow mix.
Small craft winds will persist along the eastern Bering and
southern Alaska Peninsula (including waters south) as cold air
advection remains in place today. Benign conditions expected
through most of the weekend for Southwest Alaska until the next
front moves in Sunday afternoon.

A gale force front tracking through the Western Bering Sea and
Aleutians is expected to continue toward the Central Bering tonight
into Saturday morning where it will weaken nearly in place.
Behind it, a developing compact low from the North Pacific will
track northeast, passing the Adak and Atka area Saturday morning.
As it catches up to the degrading front, the features will merge
in the Central Bering and continue to press the weakening ridge
downstream toward Southwest Alaska. Saturday will be relatively
quiet for Southwest Alaska, but by Sunday afternoon, the Bering
system will reach the Southwest coast where rain, snow, and south
to southeasterly flow returns.

KM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7, Monday through Thursday)...

By Monday morning, there is fair confidence (60 to 70%) for a low
pressure system, with a depth near 995 mb, to be moving inland
into the Kuskokwim Delta, potentially bringing strong onshore
winds and wave action to the coast. Given southerly flow
continuing to bring in warmer air, rainfall is expected with this
system. Additionally, the front of this low is set to break off
into a triple-point low spinning up in the western Gulf of Alaska
by Monday morning, pushing inland to Southcentral through Monday
bringing similar conditions to the northern Gulf Coast.

Confidence in increasing with regards to the progression of a
stronger low moving into our area south of the Alaska Peninsula by
Tuesday morning. By Tuesday morning, this low may be near 960 mb
and would work to drive stronger winds along the Alaska Peninsula
as well as bring a large swath of rainfall across the area. By
Tuesday night/Wednesday morning moderate model agreement suggests
the progression of this low pressure system into the northern Gulf
of Alaska bringing it`s round of active weather to the
Southcentral coastline. There is poor model agreement regarding
the progression of the low beyond Wednesday, with several
solutions weakening the low in the northern Gulf, while others
hold on to it`s strength. However, generally unsettled weather
expected for the region through the long-term period.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period.
Mid and high cloud cover will increase this morning keeping fog
and low clouds chances in check. A few showers may work over the
mountains and through the terminal, but any rainfall should be
light with little to no reduction in visibility. Winds will be
under 10 kts and generally out of the north.

&&


$$