Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

889
FXAK68 PAFC 071235
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Two distinct shortwaves are rotating around an upper-level low
centered over the Alaska Panhandle this morning. The first of
these waves is moving over the Copper River Basin and is spreading
mid-level clouds over the eastern half of Southcentral along with
a few isolated showers over the Susitna Valley. The second, more
potent shortwave is near Yakutat this morning and is bringing rain
showers to the coast near Cordova. This feature will be the one to
bring steadier showers across Southcentral from east to west
through the day.

Thunderstorm potential over the Copper River Basin looks a bit
diminished from yesterday, due in part to the lingering cloud
cover from the first shortwave trough moving through the region
this morning. A distinct band of cloud cover and moisture is also
associated with the second wave, with both helping to keep
temperatures a bit cooler and the airmass a bit more stable over
the Basin today. Farther west, clouds should scattered out
between these two features, allowing for additional daytime
heating and better instability. As such, isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms are again possible across the Susitna
Valley. A few thunderstorms will also be possible along the
foothills of the Kenai and western Chugach Mountains.

As this wave moves west through the Copper River Basin today, it
will run into yet another wave, associated with a surface front,
moving east from Southwest Alaska. As this wave digs across
Kennedy Entrance, it will pull moisture from the other as winds
aloft become more southeasterly. This will allow showers to
overspread Cook Inlet, Anchorage Bowl, and Mat-Su Valleys late
tonight through early Wednesday morning. a new surface low will
then spin up along the front and get pulled southeast into the
southern Gulf. The residual Copper River trough will then elongate
and get pulled southward through the day Wednesday with scattered
showers redeveloping over the higher terrain drifting east over
Anchorage and Cook Inlet in the east-northeast flow aloft.

One other item of note will be the development of strong
southeasterly gap winds for Turnagain Arm, Knik River Valley, and
Copper River Valley this afternoon through late tonight with gusts
up to 35 mph possible.

-TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

Expect a similar pattern to unfold today as yesterday across the
Southwestern Mainland. That is to say another active day in the
shower and thunderstorm department across the interior. Although,
do not expect storm coverage or lightning activity to be quite as
high as yesterday. Expect another warm day as well with highs in
the middle to upper 50s along the coast with 60s and 70s inland. A
low in the Bering Sea, currently moving eastward near the
Pribilof Islands this morning, will continue to move towards the
southwest coast today. Its front will reach the coast this
afternoon and will bring light rain along the coast.

Cooler and more stable arrive for Wednesday as the Bering low
moves across the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) and into the Gulf.
Expect a cooler day Wednesday, even across the interior, where
temperatures will only make it to the middle 60s along with
overcast skies and rain showers. An upper-level shortwave digs
south from interior Alaska Thursday and delivers another round of
rain to interior Southwest Alaska beginning Thursday morning.
Highest confidence for rain will be from Sleetmute east to the
Western Alaska Range. There is more uncertainty for across Aniak,
as it will depend on the exact trajectory of this shortwave as it
approaches. The airmass in place once this shortwave arrives does
not look that unstable, therefore, lightning will be a lower
threat with this little system. Steady rain from Sleetmute to Lime
Village will taper off to showers Thursday night with leftover
showers remaining mostly confined to the terrain Friday morning.

Farther out west, the Bering low mentioned previously, will
continue to bring the AKPEN rain showers today as the front
advances inland this afternoon and the low itself crosses the
AKPEN. Showers end across the Pribilof Islands late tonight into
Wednesday morning as the low pulls away to the southeast. The one
thing that will not end will be low-stratus ceilings across the
area and much of the Bering. Northerly flow ensues behind this low
across the eastern Bering for Wednesday evening and Thursday with
more showers along the AKPEN as a ridge builds across the Central
Aleutians (Adak/Atka).

This ridge moves east to the Eastern Aleutians
(Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan) Thursday morning as a North Pacific
low and associated atmospheric river move to Adak/Atka by Thursday
afternoon and evening. This moisture plume and warm tropical air
will moves to the Eastern Aleutians by Thursday night and to the
southern AKPEN by Friday morning. Wind- wise, expect sustained
small-craft southerlies with gale-force gusts at the very least
with possibly (30 to 50 percent chance) some sustained gales along
the North Pacific marine zones of the Central and Eastern
Aleutians. Stay tuned for forecast updates regarding the evolution
of this warm and moist system slated for Thursday and Friday
across the Aleutian Chain.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

An upper-level ridge centered over the ALCAN will remain the
dominant synoptic feature through much of the long-term period,
supporting generally warmer conditions across mainland Alaska.
While the ridge promotes periods of sunshine, several weak
shortwaves rounding the ridge will keep the potential for
scattered showers across portions of Southcentral through the
weekend. The greatest chance for convective development will
remain over the eastern Copper River Basin, where daytime heating
combined with passing disturbances may support isolated to
scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms Friday through
Sunday. Elsewhere across Southcentral, precipitation will be more
limited.

Across the Bering Sea and Aleutians, an active pattern persists
as a series of lows track eastward through the weekend, bringing
periods of rain, low clouds, and locally gusty winds. Forecast
confidence in the exact track and timing of these systems remains
moderate, though the highest confidence for more persistent
rainfall continues to be from Adak eastward to Unalaska.

Attention then turns to a stronger North Pacific low expected to
move into the western and central Bering over the weekend before
lifting toward Bristol Bay late Sunday into Monday. As the system
approaches, widespread rain will overspread much of Southwest
Alaska with increasing winds, especially along the Alaska
Peninsula and Bristol Bay coast.

By Monday, the low is expected to continue tracking inland while
gradually weakening, allowing rain to spread farther across the
Kuskokwim Valley and portions of interior Southwest Alaska.
Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska will remain on the eastern
periphery of the system beneath the upper-level ridge, supporting
isolated showers over the higher terrain while lower elevation may
experience a mix of clouds and sunshine. Although model spread
increases by Monday regarding the exact evolution of the low,
confidence is growing in a wetter pattern across Southwest Alaska.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will likely persist through the TAF
period. Winds will be light and variable through the early
afternoon. By the mid to late afternoon a Turnagain Arm wind will
redevelop and bring southeasterly gusts up to 30 kts. Through the
late afternoon/evening a shower in the vicinity of the terminal
is possible; however, downslope winds should stave off most
showers. Turnagain winds will gradually weaken through the
overnight and evening hours, but some gusty winds may linger
through tomorrow morning. Showers will likely develop over the
terminal by late tonight and linger into early Wednesday morning.

&&


$$