Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

626
FXAK68 PAFC 080049
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
349 PM AKST Sat Nov 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A weak trough will continue to bring rain showers to the Whittier
and the Prince William Sound coast and snow to higher elevations
through late this evening. Similar conditions will persist on
Kodiak Island into tomorrow evening as a quasi- stationary low
remains near the island. Elsewhere in Southcentral, a mix of sun
and clouds are expected into tomorrow evening.

A North Pacific Low moves into the Gulf of Alaska Monday bringing
gale to storm force winds to the Northern Gulf with coastal rain
and inland snow. Warmer air will move into the higher elevations
through the day Monday changing the snow to a mix of rain/snow by
the afternoon hours. As the low progresses towards Southcentral,
wind gusts will increase and remain gusty in the usual gap
locations of Southcentral. Northeast wind flow out of the
Mat-Valley into the Anchorage Bowl as the storm moves closer to
the Kenai Peninsula favors a period of rain and snow showers
early this week.  Model agreement with the location of heaviest
precipitation Monday and Tuesday from the storm continues with
Kodiak Island, Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound
remaining the areas where the highest precipitation will fall.

As the storm progresses closer to the Southern Kenai
Peninsula/Kodiak Island Monday afternoon to Tuesday evening,
northwest flow over Kodiak Island will bring rain changing to a
mix of rain/snow by late Monday evening. Precipitation continues
into Tuesday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The quiet weather pattern continues across the region through the
rest of the weekend and into early next week. A weak Gulf low is
bringing a low cloud deck to the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest with
minimal precipitation chances. Longwave, broad troughing has been
generating rain and snow showers across the Aleutians and
Pribilof Islands, which is set to linger through early next week.
The system has also been advecting colder air across both the
Bering and Southwest Alaska, which will keep most of the showers
as a rain/snow mix. Given the weak northerly flow, and showery
nature of the precipitation, breaks in the clouds and periods of
sunshine are possible into early next week.

By Late Tuesday, a front connected to a North Pacific Low is
expected to approach Shemya and the Western Aleutians bringing
precipitation and easterly winds. Precipitation from this system
would most likely be in the form of rain. There is a 20% chance
of the Aleutian Chain west of Adak to see Gale force winds
Tuesday night. Disagreement lingers in the long-term model
ensembles with the track of this low. Some push the low northward,
crossing the Aleutians by midweek enter the Bering north of the
Aleutian Chain, while others keep it south of the Chain shifting
eastward. Stay tuned for any updates as it looks like this will
break our temporary quiet weather pattern

-SS

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term is characterized by lows moving into the Bering and
from the west and from the North Pacific. These lows will bring
active weather to Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska.
Wednesday starts off with a North Pacific low moving into the
Bering. Gale to storm force winds and moderate to heavy rain over
the Aleutians accompanies this low. Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska
sees lingering light rain and snow for coastal regions and Kodiak
Island with inland areas remaining drier. Thursday sees the low
move eastward, bringing winds and rain to Southcentral Alaska
while the back end of the low allows for continued winds and
rain/snow over the Aleutians and AKPEN. Friday has the low move
into the Gulf of Alaska with continued rain/snow and winds for
coastal Southcentral Alaska. A ridge builds over the Bering,
leading to drier and calmer conditions over much of Southwest
Alaska. However, northerly flow allows for gap winds in the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula areas. Also, another low
moves into the Shemya area from the west, bringing another round
of gusty winds and rainfall.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northeast winds will persist
through this evening. There is still a slight chance (around 20%)
for a few sprinkles or flurries this afternoon, but anything that
does make it to the surface should stay very light. Depending on
what happens with residual upper level cloud cover, low stratus
could fill in over the terminal overnight tonight and bring
ceilings down to MVFR or lower through Sunday morning. Again,
this will depend on how much clearing happens after dark this
evening, with more clearing increasing the chance for low stratus
development late tonight into Sunday morning.

&&


$$