Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 031352
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
552 AM AKDT Mon Aug 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage and the Hillside
through 10AM Tuesday. Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph are expected for
west/south Anchorage, while the Seward Highway near the Turnagain
Arm and the Hillside will see gusts up to 60 mph.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for the eastern Kenai Peninsula from
Monday night through Thursday morning, due to heavy rain.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for Susitna and lower Matanuska
Valleys from Tuesday morning through Friday morning, due to heavy
rain.

Discussion:

Light rain has begun to spread into the region this morning with
more widespread rain filling in over the Susitna Valley. This is
quicker that most of the hi-res and longer range models have for
timing. This means that portions of the western Kenai up through the
Mat Valley may see intermittent light rain beginning by mid-morning.
Temperatures have fallen into the 50s for most locations across
Southcentral this morning and with abundant cloud cover throughout
the day, temperatures won`t warm more that a few days today and
tomorrow. The exception will be the Copper Basin where temperatures
should warm into the mid to upper 60s in the river valley.

Even with rainfall moving in more quickly, the forecast remains on
track with a cool and wet forecast for western Southcentral and the
coastal zones for the upcoming week. Moderate to heavy rainfall is
still on track for portions of the Susitna Valley and Eastern Kenai
Peninsula where Flood Watches remain in effect. Satellite imagery
shows a very moist plume sub-tropical moisture streaming north into
western Alaska this morning. This plume will move eastwards towards
Southcentral by late tonight, and while it will lose some of its
punch...precipitable water values will still be well above the daily
average, and may actually near the daily max per the PANC sounding
climatology.

A strengthening coastal ridge has resulted in gusty winds developing
overnight along the Turnagain Arm and other known gap flow spots
along the Chugach Mountains. West Anchorage and the Palmer area have
seen gusts of 30 to 35 mph this morning with the Hillside gradually
increasing to around 30 to 40 mph. As this gradient continues to
tighten today, winds over the west/south Anchorage and the Hillside
will see stronger winds develop later today with the strongest winds
expected this afternoon into this evening. The Knik winds will also
remain gusty with gusts up to 40 mph. Lastly, the Copper Basin will
see southerly winds increase this morning with the strengthening
coastal ridge and could see some spillover of light rain into the
far southern edge of the basin.

- PP


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)...

Currently, a low resides over Saint Lawrence Island while its
front extends across Bristol Bay and the Southwest mainland.
Precipitation will continue to spread across Southwest this
morning as the front continues eastward. Precipitation will begin
to diminish this morning for the Kuskokwim Delta and western
Bristol Bay. For Bristol Bay and the Alaska Peninsula, the
heaviest rainfall will occur between today into Tuesday morning.
Locations from Nikolski to the southern AKPen will also receive
rainfall, however, rates will be much lower.

Southerly to southwesterly small-craft winds will persist across
the southern Bering this morning and diminish this afternoon.
Considering the strength of the wind, extended fetch, and
orientation to the shore, high surf and water levels of 1 to 2
feet above normal high tide may be possible during this period.
Though winds will not as strong in Bristol Bay, water levels there
could be pushed up to 1 foot above normal high tides. Winds across
most areas begin to weaken this afternoon. Small-craft winds will
continue across the northern Bering and western Kuskokwim Delta
coast as a secondary shortwave rotates around the low.

The low begins to occlude this morning and loops around Saint
Lawrence Island before continuing to the Seward Peninsula by
Wednesday morning. This will continue to draw waves of
precipitation across Southwest Alaska and the northern AKPen
through Wednesday. Additional rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches is
expected through Wednesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts
possible for higher terrain, particularly along the western Alaska
Range/Kuskokwim Valley, and between Kipnuk and Dillingham. For
Umnak Island, Unalaska, and the southern AKPen, less than half an
inch of rain is expected through Wednesday.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

A more stagnant pattern is on the way for late this week. An
upper level low will remain nearly stationary over Norton
Sound/Western Alaska through Friday. By Saturday, an Arctic upper
low dives south and interacts with this Western Alaska low, after
which model disagreement over this interaction leads to lower
forecast confidence through the weekend. Generally, in the absence
of strong surface features, expect lighter winds and rain showers
over the Southern Mainland, with more robust showers under the
upper low in Southwest Alaska. Ridging over the Bering Sea and
Aleutian Islands will likely lead to areas of clouds and fog.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Strong southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will persist
through the TAF period, with periodic gusts to 35 kts. While VFR
conditions (with ceilings greater than 5000 ft) will likely
continue through the morning, rain showers and lower ceilings are
expected to fill in by mid-to- late afternoon. However, the exact
timing of this remains uncertain given the strong downslope flow
mixing in drier air, which could delay the onset of rain and lower
ceilings. MVFR conditions are possible through the evening and
into tomorrow morning, with potential dips into IFR during
stronger showers.

&&



$$