Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXAK68 PAFC 181346
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKDT Sun Oct 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- A large storm system will bring widespread rain and snow to most
  of Southcentral tonight through Tuesday night.

Discussion:

Abundant cloud cover is over a good portion of the state this
morning. Despite cold air advection behind the trough the moved
through yesterday, the cloud cover has prevented many areas from
dropping into the 20s this morning. A few lingering showers were
still ongoing over the southern Cook Inlet area associated with a
weak surface low and trough. This activity should diminish through
late morning. The rest of of Southcentral should see some peeks
of sunlight by this afternoon before clouds overspread the region
tonight.

The next system is already taking shape as the low deepens over the
Bering Sea and the front lifts up across the AKPEN, Kodiak Island,
and the western Gulf through this afternoon. Widespread
precipitation will follow behind the front...first across the AKPEN
and Kodiak Island before spreading north across the Kenai Peninsula,
Susitna Valley, and Prince William Sound. Some downsloping may limit
precipitation for a bit across the western Kenai Peninsula,
Anchorage Bowl, and Mat Valley but is expected to fill in by Monday
afternoon. Models have struggled with this next system but have come
into pretty good agreement on this latest model run. Precipitation
type will be highly dependent on temperatures by tomorrow morning
with snow or a rain/snow mix in the morning then changing over all
rain as temperatures warm. Higher elevations (>2000 ft) will see
snow with a possible changeover to a rain/mix for coastal areas. As
temperatures drop back down towards freezing Monday night, should
see precipitation change back.

The Susitna Valley over to the northern Copper River Basin will see
higher snowfall totals ranging from about 2-4" for lower elevations
to 4-8" for the areas along the Denali Highway and Paxon/Isabel Pass
area through Tuesday afternoon. The Glenn Highway from about Sutton
over to Tolsona could also see snowfall totals of between 2-4".
These areas will be the most likely areas to see temperatures
hovering near to below freezing allowing for snow to accumulate.
Elsewhere, light accumulations will quickly melt as temperatures
warm and snow changes over to rain. Thompson Pass will also see
mostly snow, though there is a chance it could swing from snow to
a mix of precipitation at times. However, it should remain cold
enough for modest snowfall rates of 1" to 1.5" per hour with the
potential to see accumulations above 10 inches from Monday
through Tuesday. The coastal areas along the Gulf and Prince
William Sound will see the bulk of precipitation from the system.
The lower-elevations along the coast could see rainfall amounts of
several inches. By late Tuesday, this system will start to push
out of Southcentral, but showers could linger into Wednesday over
the Copper Valley.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A front currently over the eastern Bering Sea stretches across the
southern Alaska Peninsula and Unalaska, bringing light rain
showers and elevated winds this morning. The front will continue
to progress eastward, moving over the Southwest coast this
afternoon. Precipitation will spread across much of Southwest
Alaska by this afternoon. All rain is expected along the coast as
temperatures there are expected to warm quickly as the front
approaches. Further inland may hang onto colder air a bit longer
into this afternoon, allowing for snow initially, becoming a
rain/snow mix. Through Monday, areas such as Sleetmute and
Crooked Creek may get 1 to 3 inches of snow, however accumulations
at the surface will likely melt in the daytime hours.

A wave moving across the western Bering Sea will bring the chance
for isolated thunderstorms today and tonight over Shemya and Attu
and over marine areas. As the wave moves north/west, energy begins
to taper off, however, there remains a slight chance for some
isolated thunderstorms during the early hours on Monday near/over
the Pribilof Islands.

KM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7, Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term forecast starts on Tuesday with a low moving into
the Gulf of Alaska. Gusty winds and moderate to heavy rain are
expected for lower elevations. Snowfall is expected for higher
elevations. The low will remain stationary until it dissipates on
Thursday, with continued precipitation until then. Winds will
slowly diminish as the low weakens. Meanwhile, weak ridging builds
into the Bering on Tuesday. This, along with cold air advection
means that scattered rain/snow showers could form and move into
the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula as the colder air moves over
the relatively warmer waters. Otherwise, less activity and calmer
winds are expected through Thursday morning. By Thursday
afternoon, a strong front pushes into the Bering. Gusty gale force
winds and moderate to heavy rainfall are expected with this
front. Friday sees the source of the front, a low, move into the
Bering, bringing more gusty winds and rainfall. The front pushes
into the Southwest Mainland by Friday afternoon, bringing gusty
winds and rainfall to the coast. We are monitoring the direction
of these gusty winds to see they may increase water levels along
the coastal Kuskokwim Delta.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A few lingering light rain showers drifting near the
terminal will dissipate by this evening. Some remaining patches
of low stratus could occasionally still bring ceilings down into
MVFR range this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and light winds will persist through Sunday afternoon.

&&


$$