Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

606
FXAK68 PAFC 011341
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
541 AM AKDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry conditions today through Sunday morning then a shift
back to cooler and wetter for a good portion of Southcentral for
early next week.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage, Mat-Su, and parts
of Kenai Peninsula and Copper River Valley into the weekend.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for Susitna and lower Matanuska
Valleys from Tuesday morning through Friday morning, due to heavy
rain.

Discussion:

An amplified ridge of high pressure positioned from the Gulf
northwards across much of Interior Alaska will result in another day
of hot and dry conditions over Southcentral. Fog and low stratus has
once again pushed up along the northern Gulf coast and Prince
William Sound this morning, but will once again scour out by mid-
morning. May also see a few pockets of patchy fog develop for inland
Southcentral, but this too will quickly mix out this morning. While
still hot for most areas today...it does look like a bit more cloud
cover will be able to spill over the ridge as a trough advances
eastwards across the Bering. As a result, some areas will see
temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday. Coastal areas will
also see warm temperatures today, but will have some relief as the
sea breeze develops. The thermal ridge axis will set-up over the
Copper Basin today where some of the lower valleys will see
temperatures near 80, and in the mid to upper 70s Sunday as the axis
shifts over the southern ALCAN border. Despite the hot and dry
conditions, light winds will keep fire weather concerns low today
and Sunday. Fire weather concern will increase across the Copper
Basin Monday as gusty southerly winds develop and rainfall chances
remain low.

From Sunday into Monday, a low in the Bering Strait will begin to
influence weather in Southcentral. Winds will pick up by Sunday
evening--especially through southeasterly gaps and into Anchorage,
Palmer, and central Copper River Valley--as the surface pressure
gradient tightens and reorients ahead of this incoming low. The main
concern, however, will be rain amounts. As such, a Flood Watch
remains in effect for the Susitna Valley from Tuesday morning
through Friday morning. While confidence is high that this late
weekend/early workweek storm will advect a lot of moisture and lead
to areas of heavy rain, exact amounts and timing are difficult to
pinpoint at this time. This will ultimately depend on how quickly
the incoming low and its front can displace the ridge over
Southcentral. That said, have continued to lean towards the higher-
end model solutions and, thus, towards a higher rain forecast.
Models are in good agreement with more widespread, moderate rainfall
moving into the Susitna Valley by mid to late morning Monday, then
continuing to spread south and east through late Monday into Tuesday
morning. Stay tuned to the forecast, and safely enjoy this weekend`s
warmer weather before our deluge arrives early next week.

-KC/PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Light rain is expected across the Alaska Peninsula and coastal
Southwest mainland as the parent low pressure system continues
south across the Alaska Peninsula. Precipitation chances will
diminish through the afternoon for the Alaska Peninsula with
isolated showers moving northeast across the Kuskokwim Delta. Wind
speeds will be relatively light for inland areas for the first
half of the weekend.

The next system crosses the Bering Saturday night into Sunday,
projecting its front across Southwest Alaska Sunday morning, with
widespread small craft advisory winds across the Bering, and
Gales stretching from the Rat Islands into the Central Bering and
Pribilof Islands from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. By
late Sunday, the front will push into the Southwest Mainland,
leading to widespread rain. The system slows in the vicinity of
Saint Lawrence Island Sunday afternoon before turning eastward and
heading inland. Several waves of precipitation rotating around
the low will bring 1.0 and 1.4 inches of rain across Southwest,
between Sunday morning and Tuesday morning. Higher amounts are
expected north of Bristol Bay, with totals of 0.6 inches or less
south of King Salmon and along the Alaska Peninsula.


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

An active and progressive weather pattern will remain in place
through the long term as a broad upper low lingers over western
Alaska. Several embedded shortwaves rotating around the parent
circulation will move northeast across Southcentral through the
week, supporting periodic rounds of showers and keeping conditions
generally cool and unsettled. A tightening pressure gradient will
also allow the typical gap winds to return beginning Tuesday, with
elevated southerly winds expected through Turnagain Arm, Knik, and
other favored terrain gaps through the end of the forecast period.
A moist southwesterly flow will continue to direct periods of
rain cross much of Southcentral Alaska Tuesday and again on
Wednesday. The steadiest rainfall is expected along the Gulf
Coast and windward terrain where upslope enhancement will maximize
precipitation totals, while inland and more downsloped locations
will see more intermittent showers. Rainfall coverage on Wednesday
looks to become more scattered compared to Tuesday, though
locally heavier showers remain possible, especially near the
mountains and Gulf-facing terrain. Several more disturbances
moving through will aid in additional scattered showers through
the end of the week.

Across the Aleutians and Bering, broad cyclonic flow and embedded
shortwaves will keep a cool, showery pattern in place through
Friday. Periods of rain will accompany passing disturbances, with
breezy conditions at times across the eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula before gradually diminishing later in the weak as the
upper low weakens.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. Expect a
westerly afternoon and evening sea breeze Saturday.

&&


$$