Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

648
FXAK68 PAFC 091346
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
546 AM AKDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Friday)...

A potent shortwave trough that brought us the showery day
yesterday is on its way out of Southcentral, now diving down into
the Panhandle region. Strong northwesterly flow aloft continues
to intensify in the wake of the trough passage as a broad ridge of
high pressure builds to the west across the Bering Sea and
Southwest. Gap winds along the coast are beginning to pick up this
morning, including in and around Kodiak, Seward and Whittier.
Much calmer and drier conditions have set in farther inland where
skies are attempting to clear out. However, the clearing skies
overnight have allowed the surface to radiate out and cool,
resulting in patchy fog an stratus development in some spots,
especially across the Susitna Valley. The areas of fog will start
to mix out within a few hours after sunrise, but in the meantime,
watch out for sudden drops in visibility during the morning
commute.

A dry and summer-like pattern will largely continue through the
end of the workweek as the upper ridge to the west slowly shifts
east and moves overhead through Friday. Offshore gap winds will
prevent any attempt at a sea breeze from making it onshore for the
next two afternoons, supporting balmy afternoon temperatures
approaching 70 degrees in some spots along the coast. Cloud cover
near a passing warm front will likely keep temperatures from
dipping down too sharply overnight tonight into early Thursday.
However, clearer skies on Thursday night could allow low spots
over valleys (such as Willow and Glennallen) to dip as low as the
30s close to sunrise on Friday morning. Gap winds over the Gulf
and along the coast will also quickly diminish between Thursday
evening and Friday morning as prevailing flow aloft weakens and
becomes more zonal/westerly. Cloud cover will begin to increase
some again during the day on Friday ahead of a slow-moving cold
front approaching from the Interior and Southwest.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today, Wednesday through Friday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

* A building ridge brings quieter conditions Wednesday for
  Southwest Alaska and the Alaska Peninsula (AKPen), while a
  strong front moves into the western Bering and Aleutians.

* Elevated water levels are expected along the Kuskokwim River and
  Kuskokwim Delta coast Thursday and Friday. High river levels
  combined with storm surge may produce bankfull conditions or
  minor flooding near Tuntutuliak, while strong onshore winds
  could produce coastal erosion and minor coastal flooding along
  the Delta Coast.

* The strongest winds with the approaching system remain focused
  over the Bering and Aleutians as the front encounters a
  resistant ridge over Southwest Alaska.


Discussion:

Currently, a vertically stacked low which was over Southwest
Alaska this morning has moved to the Gulf. Some showers persist
along the Alaska Range down to the AKPen, otherwise most showers
have dissipated while areas of stratus clouds linger. To the
west, patches of fog and areas of low stratus are seen across the
Bering, Aleutians, and southern AKPen underneath a building
ridge.

A pronounced pattern change is ongoing as upper-level ridging
builds across the Bering and expands east across Southwest Alaska.
This will promote generally quieter and drier conditions with
seasonal temperatures across Southwest and the eastern Aleutians
today. A couple shortwaves moving over the periphery of the ridge
may spark some isolated showers across the Kuskokwim Delta and
Valley through Thursday morning, though most activity should
remain to the north. More persistent precipitation may linger
along the northern portions of the Alaska Range given upper level
vorticity and upsloping winds. Additionally, areas of low clouds
and overnight fog will remain possible beneath the ridge, with
areas around Bristol Bay being most favorable. Meanwhile, a deep
low tracking from Kamchatka toward eastern Siberia sends a strong
front into the western Bering and western Aleutians today.
Increasing southerly winds and rain spread into the western
Aleutians by tonight.

The ridge remains rather stout across Southwest Alaska Thursday
while the Bering front presses slowly eastward. Guidance continues
to favor the ridge resisting the eastward progression of the
front, keeping the strongest winds primarily across the western
and central Bering. Nevertheless, periods of small-craft to gale-
force winds and rain will accompany the front as it advances
across the Aleutians and toward the Pribilof Islands.

By Thursday night into Friday, the upper ridge begins to shift
east as the front makes additional progress toward the eastern
Bering and Southwest coast. Southwesterly winds increase along the
Kuskokwim Delta coast, with rain spreading into western portions
of Southwest Alaska. The combination of high water moving down the
Kuskokwim River and storm surge moving upriver could result in
bankfull conditions or minor flooding near Tuntutuliak during high
tide Thursday and Friday. Along the Kuskokwim Delta coast, strong
onshore winds could also result in coastal erosion and minor
coastal flooding from Kongiganak northward through Toksook Bay and
Tununak. A Hydrologic Outlook has been issued for these concerns.
The front should continue to weaken as it encounters the ridge,
with uncertainty remaining in exactly how quickly precipitation
and stronger winds progress inland through Friday afternoon.

- PA/LM


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The low pressure system that is set to bring widespread gusty
winds and rainfall across western Alaska this week will continue
in its eastward track into the Beaufort Sea through this weekend.
Its associated frontal system significantly weakens as it moves
inland across interior Southwest Alaska with the strong upper
ridge and drier conditions lingering across the Gulf and
Southcentral for Saturday.

Despite the weaker, more zonal flow, the pattern remains active
through the weekend as an additional shortwave in the Bering
quickly moves inland and across Southern Alaska. Despite models
varying on the exact strength and timing, this system is generally
expected to bring the next round of rainfall across the
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska Saturday. This
system quickly shifts east and brings the potential for rainfall
across much of Southcentral by late Saturday into Sunday.

Despite increasing model spread heading into next week,
confidence continues to increase for the pattern to once again
become more amplified by the end of the weekend into early next
week. The next shortwave emerges off of Kamchatka and enters the
western Bering where it is expected to interact and phase with
energy lifting north out of the Pacific. As a result, the next
round of potentially strong southerly winds and heavy rainfall
will be possible across the Aleutian Chain beginning Sunday
through the early part of next week as a strengthening low moves
into the southern Bering. Meanwhile, the upper ridge centered over
the North Pacific and southern Gulf strengthens across the
southern Mainland through early next week, bringing a period of
drier weather.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the
TAF period. However, due to skies clearing from yesterday`s
rainfall, there is a chance of fog formation mid morning from
residual moisture and radiational cooling.

-AM

&&


$$