Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

325
FXAK68 PAFC 051325
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
525 AM AKDT Mon Oct 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Wednesday Night)...

A vertically stacked low has moved from the Bering Sea and is now
over Kodiak Island early this morning.The low that brought the
snow to the Copper River Basin Saturday night has now weakened and
been absorbed into this low over Kodiak. This has left a trough
extending out of this Kodiak low and to the northeast to the AlCan
border in the Interior. With this orientation, the coldest air has
been pushed back to the north of the Alaska Range with 850 mb
temperatures sitting between -1C and +1C across most of
Southcentral. Surface temperatures are above freezing for areas at
and lower than the road system, except for parts of the Copper
River Basin. It is in the Copper Basin where there is a dense fog
advisory out until 10 AM this morning as the warmer air aloft rides
over the colder air in the lower portions of the Copper Basin and
this is producing widespread areas of fog with visibility under
1/4 mile. There is also the potential for freezing drizzle early this
this morning, but this threat is diminishing as more of the Basin
is warming to be above freezing. In shirt, there will be limited
visibility and slick roads in parts of the Copper Basin this
morning, but conditions are expected to improve throughout the
day.

In the Gulf, warm surface temps with cooler temps aloft will
result in some instability. With some lift from the low, there is
a 10 to 20 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf
through Tuesday afternoon.

The Kodiak low is tracking slowly northeastward and is expected to
take until Tuesday evening to reach the area near Hinchinbrook
Entrance into Prince William Sound. This will keep shower activity
around most of Southcentral for today and into tomorrow. However,
as the low weakens tomorrow, the shower activity will become less
widespread and less intense.

As the low dissipates near Hinchinbrook Entrance on Wednesday, a
weak shortwave will approach Southcentral from the northwest. This
looks to reinforce the cloudy conditions and keep some shower
activity lingering across the region. Temperatures aloft will also
begin to cool with this shortwave resulting in some snow at
higher elevations. The most likely place for snow to reach road
level on Wednesday will be north of Chulitna toward Windy Pass.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Monday through Wednesday night)...

Key Messages:

* Southwest Alaska and Alaska Peninsula: Trending colder. Breezy
  along the coast, with scattered showers.

* Bering Sea and Aleutians: Breezy with scattered showers through
  Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, winds increase from west
  to east as a strong storm develops. Parts of the Bering Sea and
  Aleutians will likely see gusts as high as 60 to 80 kt with
  this storm, as well as seas up to 30 ft and heavy rain.

* Stay tuned to the forecast. Since there`s still uncertainty with
  the evolution of this strong midweek storm, it`s not yet clear
  where the most hazardous weather or highest impacts will occur.

Discussion:

Much of the weather over the next 24 hours will be dominated by a
broad upper low centered over Bristol Bay. As the low gradually
exits eastward into the Gulf, cold air advection at its flank will
bring gradually decreasing temperatures for Southwest Alaska, with
overnight lows gradually dropping into the 20s through midweek.
For the Alaska Peninsula and Aleutian Islands, cold air moving
over relatively warm ocean waters (SSTs 7-10 degrees Celsius) will
spur scattered rain showers, as well as gusty winds through gaps
and passes on the Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula.
Additionally, a strong shortwave trough diving south across the
Bering Sea and across Adak will bring a slight (about 10%) chance
for thunderstorms from this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

By Tuesday afternoon, attention shifts towards a developing storm
system in the Western Bering. Confidence has greatly increased
with this storm, but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with
how the various elements of this storm will interact. The first
player will be a low near Kamchatka Peninsula, which will push its
front into the Western Bering from Tuesday afternoon through
Wednesday morning. By Wednesday morning, the remnants of Typhoon
Choi-wan will curve up the North Pacific and into the Bering Sea;
how Choi-wan interacts with the Kamchatka low will be a major
determinant for the strength and duration of winds in the Western
Bering, as well as for the Aleutians from Adak west to Attu. While
the location of strongest winds is uncertain, forecast confidence
is fairly high (60 to 70 percent chance) that sustained winds will
exceed 50 kt and gusts will reach 70 kt or greater as these two
lows interact from Wednesday afternoon through at least late
Thursday night. No matter what, most of the Bering Sea from about
the Pribilof Islands west will likely see a period of at least
gale force winds. The leading edge of the front will approach
Nunivak Island late Wednesday night, so any impacts to Southwest
Alaska from this strong storm will occur late this week. Stay
tuned.

-KC

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The main weather feature for the Long Term will be the phasing of
ex-typhoon Choi-Wan and a broad low complex over the Kamchatka
Peninsula. Model guidance still has a ~400 mile spread on where
the ex-typhoon will cross into the Chain, ranging from Shemya to
Adak and Atka. Regardless of the low track, storm force winds will
encompass these areas in addition to the western Bering Sea, but
near the low center will likely be a swath of hurricane force
winds. The strongest of these winds will be overnight Wednesday
into Thursday morning. The front associated with the low will
track over the eastern Aleutians, southern Alaska Peninsula and
the Y-K Delta by Thursday afternoon. Wind speeds associated with
the front are likely to be gales.

We are continuing to monitor potential coastal impacts from the
front as it moves into the Y-K on Thursday. Luckily the tides will
be corresponding to a new moon, meaning they are near their lowest
of the lunar cycle for this month. Some high surf to minor coastal
flooding may be possible (10-20% chance). Forecast confidence for
this region decreases by Friday, mainly in regards to the front
and whether or not a triple point develops and pushes an
elongated low north into the eastern Bering. Additionally, the
main low will remain in the western Bering, which will continue
onshore flow for the Southwest coastline.

For the weekend most of the energy begins to move into the Gulf
and Southcentral. Widespread rain, which may be heavy at times,
will move into the areas late Saturday and into Sunday. A large
swath of gales is likely in the Gulf, with potential for strong
gap winds as well


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Rain showers early will diminish through later this morning
over the terminal. Chance showers return tonight. Chance for
scattered clouds near 400 ft over the terminal, however generally
MVFR ceilings are expected through the day, with VFR visibilities.
Winds will be weak and variable through the day.

-CL

&&
$$