Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

514
FXAK68 PAFC 052335
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
335 PM AKDT Wed Aug 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Flood Warning remains in effect for the Petersville area through
  5PM this afternoon.

- Flood Warning remains in effect for the Yentna River including
  Lake Creek through 1PM Friday.

Discussion:

No major changes with this forecast package as things look mostly
on track. The pattern remains fairly stagnant, with scattered,
intermittent light showers moving from south to north across the
Cook Inlet region and into the Matanuska Valley. The driver of
this precipitation is a stalled, decaying front draped from the
northern Susitna Valley southward to Kodiak Island, which is
essentially the remnants of our atmospheric river that once again
hit the Susitna Valley hard with flooding this week. Flood
Warnings remain in place for Petersville through 5PM this
afternoon and another for the Yentna River and Lake Creek through
1PM Friday. The good news for Southcentral is that the region will
trend warmer and drier through the rest of the week and into the
weekend as high pressure builds in, which should help alleviate
flooding concerns.

At 500 mb, a negatively tilted trough anchored by a closed low
over the Norton Sound will begin to lift out of the region by
Friday morning. Meanwhile, the mean flow over Southcentral will
shift to a southwesterly one, and as the drier and warmer trend
continues through Friday afternoon, weak waves embedded within the
flow will likely help touch off a few showers across the Copper
River Basin. There is currently a low to medium (30-40% chance) of
an isolated storm or two as well, though confidence as of now is
on the lower end. The model consensus right now looks marginal for
storms, and even the usual aggressive NAM does not seem all that
excited as of now, but definitely something to monitor - mainly
because temperatures heading into Friday and Saturday afternoon
will be in the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees with generally
low (30-40%) relative humidity values. All said, the message is
that we could be approaching red flag criteria this weekend for
the Copper Basin. With the addition of low end chances of
thunderstorms, fire weather concerns remain lower than average,
but certainly non-zero for this weekend for the Copper Basin.



-AM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The overall weather pattern remains largely unchanged over the
next couple of days. Gusty winds across Southwest Alaska will
persist through this afternoon and gradually diminish through
tonight. Additionally, periods of light rain showers currently
ongoing across the Kuskokwim Delta, western Kuskokwim Valley and
western Alaska Range will taper off later this evening. Rain
chances further diminish for Thursday and Friday as the low and
associated shortwaves continue to pull northward.

Across the Bering and aleutians, broad cyclonic flow supports
widespread low clouds and scattered showers through much of the
period. While showers become somewhat less widespread late
Thursday into Friday, a developing North Pacific low remains south
of the aleutian Chain. Current guidance keeps the deeper moisture
and heaviest precipitation south of the forecast area through
Friday, though increasing cloud cover and a slight increase in
shower coverage may approach the Western and Central Aleutians
late in the period. Southeasterly winds increase modestly today
into Thursday as the pressure gradient briefly tightens before
easing and becoming more southwesterly late Thursday into Friday.

KM/LM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

By the end of the weekend, troughs of low pressure will be moving
through the South/Southeastern Bering Sea, moving over the
Aleutians in the area. There is a divide between model solutions
on where the lows will drop through precisely, and if it would
bring gusty winds and/or rain to the Alaska Peninsula Sunday. That
being said, the strength of these lows are not impressive, lending
to the idea of weaker winds and rainfall totals anyway. Through
Tuesday, as the troughs move through, a col may develop over the
southern/central Bering Sea, leading to a mixed pattern of showers
and confused winds and waves.

Over the Southern Mainland of Alaska, weak areas of high and low
pressure are expected to develop through the late weekend and
early next week. The resulting weather will be diurnally- driven
showers this weekend into next week. This pattern supports more of
a scattered shower regime as opposed to widespread stratiform.
The challenge will be to gauge instability each afternoon to
determine whether or not lightning will be a threat with any
robust showers that form. Right now, it looks like the Copper
River Basin, along the Talkeetna Mountains, and along the Western
Alaska Range feature the most instability through the long-term
period.

-CL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Southerly flow continues aloft with light southerly to
southeast winds at the surface. Expect VFR conditions this
afternoon transitioning to MVFR by this evening and overnight as a
few showers move over the terminal. By the end of the TAF period,
Thursday morning, showers will taper off. However, ceilings will
continue to remain MVFR due to low-level moisture lingering.

&&



$$