Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

826
FXAK68 PAFC 230037
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)...

Satellite imagery reveals an upper-level trough extending south
from Western to Central Alaska down through Southern Alaska. On
the east side of this trough, moisture continues to lift up Cook
Inlet and northward through the Gulf of Alaska. Rain will continue
across the Kenai Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and the western
half of Southcentral through tonight. Showers will taper off
through tonight into early Sunday morning.

Sunday will feature clearer, calmer, and sunnier conditions
across much of Southcentral for Sunday. Some showers will work
into the northeast portion of the Copper River Basin by Sunday
afternoon and evening as an upper-level shortwave moves westward
across the area from Yukon, Canada. Highs across Anchorage,
Seward, and Kodiak look to reach into the middle 60s for highs
Sunday thanks in part to drier northerly flow.

Monday will also feature quiet and warm weather across
Southcentral. However, clouds will build from west to east across
the area ahead of the next system approaching from the west. The
ridge responsible for the nice weather across Southcentral Sunday
and most of Monday will weaken as flow becomes west-southwest in
the middle to upper levels of the atmosphere.

Shortwave energy ahead of the main eastward moving trough across
the Bering Sea from Kamchatka will begin to move over western
portions of Southcentral by late Monday night into Tuesday. Rain
will break out across western portions of Southcentral, including
the Mat-Su Valleys, the Kenai Peninsula, and Anchorage, by late
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Rain picks up in
intensity through Tuesday afternoon and evening across
Southcentral, even across the Copper River Basin where it has been
pretty dry for a while. The main area of lift associated with the
Bering Sea trough will move across the area from west to east
Tuesday afternoon and evening.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Radar and satellite imagery this morning show the heaviest
rainfall associated with the front that brought steady rain
overnight across Southwest Alaska progressing east into Bristol
Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley. Behind the front, rain has tapered
to showers across the Kuskokwim Delta as gusty northwesterly winds
build up through this morning over Nunivak Island, the Kuskokwim
Delta, and the eastern Bering. Rain will dissipate from west to
east across interior Southwest through tonight as the upper level
trough digs south across western Alaska, eventually forming a
closed upper low in the western Gulf by Sunday morning. High
pressure building in across the Bering behind this system
throughout today will help to enhance northwesterly gap winds
through favored gaps and passes on the Pacific side of the
northern Alaska Peninsula this afternoon through tonight.

The patterns continues to remain progressive as attention then
shifts farther upstream in the western Bering. By tonight through
Sunday morning, the next round of shortwaves moving east out of
Kamchatka and lifting out of the North Pacific interact and phase
together, allowing for a surface low to become better organized
and strengthen as it tracks northeastward across the Bering for
Sunday. As the system develops today, a warm and unstable airmass
brings a small chance (10 to 20%) for a few lightning strikes to
accompany showers moving over the western Aleutians through early
this afternoon.

As the surface low and associated upper-level circulation become
better organized and strengthens on Sunday across the western
Bering, Southwest Alaska will get a short break in the weather as
the ridge pushes east. Meanwhile, south to southwesterly small-
craft winds pick up across much of the Bering and Aleutians with a
small swath of gale-force winds expected across the northern
Bering and St. Matthew Island. Light to moderate rainfall pushing
east across the Bering reaches the Pribilof Islands Sunday morning
before reaching the Southwest coast by Sunday evening. Steady
rain continues across all of Southwest Alaska through Monday as a
stream of moisture from the North Pacific and a weak shortwave
rounding the base of the trough reinforces the front. Gusty
onshore winds begin to relax Monday morning as the low pull
farther away to the north.

The pattern continues to look active and progressive through
early next week as additional systems are expected to move into
the western Bering.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Wednesday, model divergence remains high. Both ECMWF and GFS
advertise a low entering the southwestern Bering Sea, however, the
EC shows a stronger low moving in, with stronger winds and a
precipitation core dragged in from the northern Pacific. The GFS
solution is more muted, with a weak low pressure system, loose
pressure gradients, favoring weaker winds and lighter
precipitation across the Western Aleutians. GFS and EC however are
more progressive, bringing the low into the northwestern Bering
by Thursday morning, with the Canadian solution lagging the low
still in the southwest Bering, over the Western Aleutians. By
Friday agreement improves, with increasing consensus that the low
moves into the eastern Bering Southwest mainland by Friday
afternoon. The low does not slow on its track across Nunivak
Island, Kuskokwim Delta, and over greater Bristol Bay by Saturday
morning. Widespread small craft advisory winds with smaller areas
of gales will dive across the Pribilof Islands late Friday
afternoon, and across the western Alaska Peninsula by Saturday
morning.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...A weak Turnagain wind may come into the airport at times
this evening but this is a low probability (20%) due to rain and
weak pressure gradients. Rain will continue through early this
evening before tapering off. High pressure will build in
overnight, leading to the possibility of fog and low stratus. The
only thing that may hinder this would be higher clouds left behind
by the parting trough.

&&


$$