Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

645
FXAK68 PAFC 190048
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 PM AKDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

*A Wind Advisory for Seward remains in effect through 1PM
 Thursday for northerly winds gusting up to 50 mph.

*A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Whittier for snow
 and blowing snow through 4PM Thursday.

*A Special Weather Statement has been issued for southwestern
 Kodiak Island for resuspended ash from Katmai-Novarupta through
 Thursday.

Discussion:

This afternoon, a compact low pressure system is rotating around
Middleton Island, which is clipping southern Prince William Sound
locations with snow showers. The low is also doing well at keeping
the pressure gradient strong between the interior and across the
Gulf. Aloft, a shortwave is moving southward over Southwest Alaska
and will swing over Kodiak Island tonight. In the wake of the
shortwave is a digging and positively tilted longwave trough,
which will bring another round of arctic air to the region. With
the digging trough progression, the trough axis will begin to
reorient and ultimately back the compact low northwestward towards
the western Prince William Sound and eastern Kenai Peninsula
tonight, allowing for light snow, and for some areas such as
Whittier, areas of blowing snow to develop. High resolution models
show waves of convective snow showers moving across this region
and westward into the Anchorage area and Mat-Su Valleys through
tomorrow morning. The limiting factor for appreciable
accumulations will be a northerly wind advecting drier air into
the region. That said, the forecast is on track for most locations
west of the Chugach to see a dusting to a couple inches of
snowfall, with increased totals as to be expected for the windward
slopes of the Kenai/Chugach.

For Friday, the upper level through will broaden significantly,
encompassing the majority of the state, Gulf, and portions of the
north Pacific. From here on, the forecast for the Gulf and coastal
communities gets noisy, with multiple surface lows developing and
pivoting around the upper low center south of Kodiak. In summary,
the forecast for the next 4 days will yield continued cold
temperatures, gusty winds through all of the mountain passes and
gaps, and periods of light snow, which will be mainly around the
Sound.

-AM/CJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The pattern remains the same as it has been, ridging in the
western Bering and troughing over southwest Alaska. Northerly gap
winds up to gale force in strength will continue to blow through
gaps and passes in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
areas through Friday due to cold air advection and troughing from
the north. Heavy freezing spray remains in marine areas wherever
winds are gusty in the aforementioned regions. An upper level
Arctic low drop from the north today will bring slight potential
for light snowfall in the Kuskokwim Delta and the East Bering.
Colder air will dive into the Southwest Mainland through Friday
due to the influence of the Arctic low. Low temperatures will once
again plummet into the negative teens for much of the mainland
and potentially the negative 20s for the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower
Kuskokwim Valley. Gusty winds will allow for very cold wind
chills near -40F in the Kuskokwim regions. As such, a Cold
Weather Advisory has been issued for these areas. By Thursday
afternoon, a period of snow showers is likely from Unimak Island
to Nikolski. These showers coinciding with a push of gusty
northerly winds may promote blowing snow conditions for this
latter half of the work week. Reductions in visibility from this
blowing snow potential will depend on local snowfall rates and
wind speeds. We will continue to monitor this system so stay
tuned for updates.

-JAR/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An area of high pressure persists across the Bering Sea,
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands for the long-term. Across the far
west, rain/snow and winds up to 40 mph from frontal passages will
move as far east as Adak and Atka. Across Southwest Mainland, the
eastern Bering Sea and the Alaska Peninsula, expect northerly
flow to persist with shortwaves troughs that could bring periods
of light snow showers. These showers will be more probable near
and off the ice edge in the Bering, higher elevations, and near
coastlines. Models differ with the east/west extent of this flow
regime and it is possible (though low probability) that showers
could move as far west as the Pribilof Islands at times, this
weekend, and the eastern Aleutians near Unalaska/Nikolski. Winds
through the eastern Bering Sea/Bristol Bay and through the terrain
gaps along the Alaska Peninsula will likely continue to remain
gusty with the cold air advecting across the area.

Out east towards Mainland Southcentral, low pressure will remain
in the Gulf of Alaska through the long-term period. This will
sustain cold, dry, northerly flow with enhanced gap winds through
the favored terrain and passes. Any snowfall should remain light
and confined primarily to along the coast and coastal mountain
ranges. Temperatures may start to moderate a little bit this
weekend for Southcentral, but will still be below normal for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light and variable winds becoming
northerly through Wednesday night give way to MVFR conditions and
light snow early Thursday. The arrival of a trough over Cook
Inlet will promote increasing clouds and light snow early Thursday
morning. Snow chances then diminish by midday Thursday with MVFR
ceilings and vicinity snow over the mountains.

TM/BL

&&


$$