Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

645
FXAK68 PAFC 090406
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
706 PM AKST Sun Nov 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

* Impactful storm system set to affect Southcentral Alaska Monday
  into Tuesday

* Multiple Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories have
  been issued across Southcentral from Monday morning through
  Tuesday afternoon.


A strong low continues to move toward the Southern Kenai
Peninsula / Kodiak Island Region. This low will bring snow,
freezing rain and rain to Southcentral through the next 48 hours.
Initially, snow begins on the Eastern side of the Kenai
Peninsula, City of Kodiak and Prince William Sound coast then, as
warmer air arrives early Tuesday morning, this precipitation
transitions to freezing rain and rain. For inland locations
though, cooler air remains in place longer resulting in an
afternoon snowfall start time for Western Kenai Peninsula, the
Anchorage Bowl and the Matanuska Valley. Timing variations of a
switch from snow to freezing rain and rain exist in throughout
these areas Monday evening to Tuesday afternoon though the highest
elevations have the greatest chance of prolonged period of snow
before this precipitation change. The greatest chance for frozen
precipitation is Tuesday morning as warm air slowly works its way
to the surface. A prolonged period of northeast winds from the
Matanuska Valley will keep colder air over the Glenn Highway south
to Anchorage late Tuesday morning, thus slowing the warm air`s
progression. Easterly winds out of Whittier and Eastern Turnagain
Arm will also be gusty through Tuesday afternoon.

Northerly winds out of the Copper River Basin coupled with steady
snowfall and gusty winds are expected at Thompson Pass and points
northward to Tonsina. Warmer air moves into the region Tuesday
morning changing the wind direction to come from the south and the
precipitation to freezing rain then rain. The greatest snowfall
totals and ice accretion amounts will be from Thompson Pass to
Tonsina.

As the storm winds down Wednesday across Southcentral, gusty
winds diminish and steady precipitation tapers to showers. Waves
of moisture will continue across the coast of the Eastern Kenai
Peninsula and Western Prince William Sound though additional weak
shortwaves move northeastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Steady, northeasterly flow across the Bering continues this
evening with a lack of significant pressure systems in the area.
A widespread low-to-mid level stratus deck continues to blanket
Southwest Alaska and the Bering. While Southwest Alaska is
expected to remain dry, rain/snow showers are widespread over the
Bering with cool air flowing in over the Sea. Chances for showers
across the western Aleutians mainly falling as rain or rain/snow
mix increase for today as a weak low tracks east in the North
Pacific south of the Aleutian Chain. Snow showers over the
Pribilofs this afternoon have diminished, and local areas of fog
have lifted. This generally weak and showery pattern is expected
to persist through Tuesday.

By late Tuesday, a gale-force front associated with a North
Pacific low lifts north towards the western Aleutians. This system
is expected to bring widespread gusty winds and precipitation
likely in the form of rain from the western Aleutians to Adak and
Atka Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with confidence
increasing for a period of gale-force winds for Adak and Atka.
Confidence has increased that the low would stay south of the
Chain, and shift eastward along the southern side of the Aleutians
through midweek. Gusty, southeasterly winds will sweep the Chain
as the low moves through, reaching Unalaska by Wednesday afternoon,
but periods of rain and gusty winds are not expected to persist
longer than 6 hours. Stay tuned for any updates as it looks like
this will break our temporary quiet weather pattern.

-CL

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The long term is characterized by lows moving into the Bering and
from the west and from the North Pacific. These lows will bring
active weather to Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska.
Tuesday starts off with a North Pacific low moving into the
Bering. Gale to storm force winds and moderate to heavy rain over
the Aleutians accompany this low. Meanwhile, Southcentral Alaska
sees light rain and snow for coastal regions and Kodiak Island
with inland areas remaining drier due to weak lows and waves over
the region. Thursday sees the low move eastward into the Gulf of
Alaska, bringing winds and rain to Southcentral Alaska while the
back end of the low allows for continued winds and rain/snow over
the Aleutians and AKPEN.

Friday has the low continue eastward, approaching the Alexander
Archipelago. Rain/snow should clear out for much of Southcentral
Alaska. Gap winds continue around the waters of Kodiak Island. A
ridge builds over the Bering, leading to drier and calmer
conditions over much of Southwest Alaska. However, northerly flow
allows for gap winds in the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
areas. Also, another low moves into the Shemya area from the
west, bringing another round of gusty winds and rainfall. Saturday
sees this low move further into the Bering, allowing for the
low`s front to progress and bring rain to much of the Aleutians.
Gusty winds also will impact the Aleutians. The track of this low
is uncertain at this point, so more or less rains and wind is
possible depending on the true track of the low.

-JAR

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. Light north winds will become stronger and gusty by Monday
morning, with gusts to around 20 kts or so likely to continue
through Monday afternoon. There is a slight chance (20-30%) for
light snow to move into the terminal near the end of the TAF
period on Monday afternoon.

-AS

&&


$$