Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

726
FXAK68 PAFC 091258
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 AM AKDT Sun Aug 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Tuesday night)...

A large and deep upper level low is diving southward across the
central Bering Sea leading to amplification of a downstream ridge
over southern AK. Multiple stable layers associated with the ridge
has led to a hodgepodge of clouds across Southcentral and the Gulf
of AK. Widespread low clouds and fog can be found across much of
the Gulf waters, with more localized areas being observed across
the Kenai Peninsula and coastal Southcentral (including Cook Inlet).
Otherwise, the weather is quite benign.

The upper level high will remain centered over the Kenai Peninsula
and Cook Inlet region today before retrograding westward to
interior Southwest AK on Monday. Southcentral can expect a very
similar day to Saturday, with any morning fog or low clouds
quickly burning off and leading to a partly to mostly sunny day
and warm day, with temperatures in the 60s along the coast and 70s
inland. Afternoon/evening showers will be limited to the
northeastern Copper River Basin, along the Tok Cutoff and areas
north of the Wrangell Mountains. As the ridge shifts west on
Monday, a series of weak short-waves will track from the Interior
southward across Southcentral. This will lead to a slight uptick
in afternoon/evening showers over the mountains. Stable conditions
along the coast and valleys will maintain the dry weather and
sunshine.

On Tuesday the upper level ridge will lift back toward Southcentral,
causing low level flow to shift from northerly to southerly. This
will likely lead to a more significant push of the marine layer
onshore, especially up Cook Inlet and the western Kenai Peninsula
to Anchorage and the Mat-Su. Thus, it could end up being an
overcast day with notably cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, with
a light wind regime and little change in the overall pattern,
widespread fog and stratus will persist across the Gulf coastal
and offshore waters.

-SEB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Tuesday night)...

Looking at the upper levels this morning, the main features
continue to be the upper low drifting south across the Bering Sea
and the ridge centered over the Kenai Peninsula extending westward
into Southwest Alaska. As the low sags southwards across the
Bering Sea through Monday afternoon, expect areas of light rain
along the Kuskokwim Delta coast from Toksook Bay to Kipnuk to
taper off this morning while rain continues for the Pribilof
Islands and the eastern Aleutians throughout the day today. In the
Bering and under the ridge across Southwest, fog and low stratus
will likely linger through this morning into this afternoon. After
the low departs south into the North Pacific for the latter half
of Monday, higher pressure will build in across the eastern
Bering. For the western Bering, a weak front moves in Monday
morning, followed by a strengthening low pressure system by Monday
evening. There remain some timing and positional differences with
this incoming low, especially as models struggle to represent how
it develops as it approaches the central Bering.

For Southwest Alaska, the main focus remains on warmer
temperatures under the influence of the ridge, with highs in the
mid to upper 70s for all but the immediate coast for Monday and
Tuesday. High temperatures for today (particularly for Bristol Bay
and Kuskokwim Delta communities) may similarly be limited as they
were yesterday by the clouds and fog lingering into the
afternoon, with temperatures peaking in the low to mid 60s for
much of the region.

The other thing to watch will be the potential for showers
(perhaps even strong enough to squeeze out a few lightning
strikes) to develop in the afternoons. There looks to be enough
surface- based instability to support this, especially along the
slopes of area mountains. However, overall conditions are not
supportive of strong convection or of thunderstorms: subsidence
under the ridge will likely suppress the growth of convection,
there is a distinct lack of strong upper level forcing, and low-
level winds will likely be too weak to produce longer-lived and
more organized storms. As such, while chance of lightning is non-
zero, it looks to be low for the coming days with the greatest
chance on Tuesday.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

A Gulf low is set to bring rain and wind for the Alaska Peninsula,
Kodiak Island, and parts of Southcentral Wednesday through
Thursday. There is higher confidence (50%) of reaching significant
rainfall thresholds in the Alaska Peninsula, with lower confidence
in Southcentral. This is due to a blocking pattern that is in
place from a ridge over the Alaska Panhandle. A stronger or
further west ridge would prevent additional moisture from reaching
Southcentral. Showers are expected to reach Southwest from the
Gulf low.

The pressure difference from the system and ridge has the potential
to generate winds sustained at 40 mph, especially in the Shelikof
Strait. The southern tip of Kenai Peninsula also has a chance
(lower confidence) to see hazardous winds.

The Gulf low weakens and continues to generate showers for
Southcentral, Southwest, and Alaska Peninsula Friday through
Saturday. Despite the precipitation, Southcentral will see above
average temperatures from Wednesday through Saturday from the
ridge. Western Southcentral has the best chance of seeing breakage
of clouds.

A Bering low will bring wind and rain through Friday from Shemya
to Atka. There is significant model disagreement of the track of
this low. The GFS has it continuing to track down the Aleutians
until Sand Point Saturday night versus the Euro which exits the
low across the North Pacific. Ensemble models agree more with the
GFS at this time.

-SS

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...The potential for patchy fog and low stratus will stick
around again this morning, possibly leading to a short period or
two of MVFR or lower conditions in and around the terminal.
However, daytime heating will help mix out any fog and stratus by
the late morning to early afternoon hours, similar to the past
couple days. Aside from the early day threat for fog and stratus,
VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&


$$