Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

506
FXAK68 PAFC 030033
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Sat May 2 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Monday)...

Key Points:

* Breezy and showery this afternoon and evening.

* Back-to-back storms move into Southcentral from tonight through
  Monday, bringing widespread precipitation.

* Precipitation will be heaviest along Eastern Kenai and Prince
  William Sound, and will fall mostly as rain across lower
  elevations except for light snow accumulations (< 6 inches) in
  Thompson Pass.


Discussion:

Through tonight, a lingering coastal ridge will keep winds gusty
through southeasterly gaps, bringing breezy conditions to
Anchorage, Palmer, and Copper Valley. Otherwise, pockets of
clearing are leading to areas of cumulus development and a chance
for rain showers.

Satellite shows high clouds moving in ahead of an approaching
front in the North Pacific, which will be the first of two back-
to-back storms impacting Southcentral. This front will move into
Kodiak Island early this evening, before making it to the mainland
late this evening. The second storm, a North Pacific low, arrives
Monday and lingers through Tuesday. Overall, as surface winds will
be relatively weak, the primary concern with these two storms will
be precipitation amounts. The main areas of concern are the Eastern
Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound, where there will be
little in the way of a break between these two storms. Current
forecasts are for precipitation amounts on the order of 2-2.5
inches from tonight through Monday night, with greater amounts at
higher elevation. Precipitation amounts will be much lower away
from the Gulf coast: up to 0.25 inches for much of Copper River
Valley, around 0.5 inches for Anchorage and Mat Valley, around 1
inch for Su Valley and Western Kenai Peninsula, and around 1.5
inches for Kodiak Island.

- KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)...

Showery conditions persist across portions of Southwest Alaska
and the Bering Sea as a weak open trough lingers across the
eastern Bering and Mainland. Further west, a ridge builds ahead of
the next developing Kamchatka low. The ridge will spend the rest
of the weekend traversing east before settling in the
central/northern Bering Sea.

A Kamchatka low with an attendant/weakening gale force front
arrives to the Western Aleutians midday Sunday to Sunday
afternoon. With the strong surface high pressure in control across
the Bering blocking incoming systems, the trend in the models
with this front is to push it farther southward more quickly, with
the low and front solidly moving south of the Aleutian Chain
Monday morning. The strong high pressure across the central Bering
extends to the western Bering in the wake of this low/front.

Attention shifts back to the Southwestern Mainland as a moist
front and low pressure system moving north out of the North
Pacific bring more active weather to the region. The frontal
system arrives to the Alaska Peninsula (AKPEN) by Sunday morning.
Light rain will spread from Chignik across the Peninsula to Port
Heiden and to King Salmon through Sunday morning. Light rain also
makes it to Iliamna by late morning to early Sunday afternoon as
well as to along the Western Alaska Range by Sunday afternoon.

By Monday, the North Pacific low mentioned previously, will begin
to enhance the moisture feed from the now decaying frontal
system. Moderate rain works into the AKPEN, Interior Bristol Bay,
and along the Western Alaska Range by Monday morning. Rain then
moves into Mainland/Coastal Bristol Bay and the Kuskokwim Valley
Monday afternoon through Monday night. Showers will continue
across Southwest for Tuesday. Rain Tuesday will be lighter as the
low advances through the Gulf of Alaska and weakens as it does so.
Northerly flow off the Bering Sea and some cold air in place
across the AKPEN may allow snow flakes to mix in with rain Monday
and Tuesday.

Another Kamchatka low sends its front eastward to the Western
Aleutians and western Bering by Tuesday morning. Expect light to
moderate rain across the Western Aleutians as well as gusty
southeast gale-force winds with this system through Tuesday.
Showers along the AKPEN look to taper off Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning as the strong central Bering ridge begins to
drift east towards the eastern Bering and Mainland Southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

The long term forecast favors a ridge of high pressure over the
Bering Sea and a broad trough taking shape over the Gulf of Alaska
by the end of next week. Generally dry conditions are forecast
across Southwest Alaska and also the Bering Sea, from Saint
Lawrence Island to Dutch Harbor while high pressure reigns. Across
the western Bering a Kamchatka low is forecast to bring a front
into the Western Aleutians, beginning on Tuesday. The front will
makes as much eastward progress as possible, likely overspreading
Adak and Atka on Wednesday, before the front succumbs to the
stronger area of high pressure over the Central Bering and
dissipates. Further east, Southcentral will be situated downstream
of the broader developing trough over the Gulf, which will favor
multiple disturbances tracking into Southcentral with multiple
chances for precipitation.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF
period. However, a brief drop to MVFR is possible within any
showers that develop this around the terminal this evening.
A southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind is expected to persist with
gusts up 30 knots through this evening before slowly diminishing
overnight. Winds will then become light and variable for a time
before becoming northerly by early to mid Sunday morning. Light
southeast winds aloft area likely in conjunction with the
northerly surface winds; however, any southeasterly winds aloft
expected to be light, around 10 to 15 kt. Thus, LLWS is not a
concern at this time. Light rain is possible over the terminal by
early to mid morning Sunday, but should not be heavy enough to
restrict visibility or lower ceilings to MVFR.

&&

$$