Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

595
FXAK68 PAFC 141406
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 AM AKST Sat Nov 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

No significant changes to the forecast overnight. There is high
confidence that a frontal system will bring a wintry mix of
precipitation to Prince William Sound, the Kenai Peninsula,
Southern Mat-Su Valleys, and the Anchorage Bowl late Saturday
through early Monday. There is also high confidence that
precipitation will fall as snow for all locations late Saturday
or early Sunday through at least Sunday afternoon as the wind flow
in the lower levels of the atmosphere remain northerly ahead of
the front.

There are two or three aspects of this storm, however, that bring
with it a higher level of uncertainty. The first is how far west
the initial band of precipitation will move as it crosses the
Kenai Peninsula. The GFS continues to progress this band quickly
over Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Bowl while the RRFS/REFS and
GEM/RGEM try to stall out the band over Anchorage for a bit before
moving over Cook Inlet. The NBM tries to split the difference with
the band between Anchorage and Kenai. This brings lower confidence
to snow amounts for areas from Palmer and Wasilla to Anchorage and
Kenai. However, given the blend of models, the most likely
(60-70%) scenario is 2 to 6 inches of snow for Anchorage and the
Western Kenai Peninsula with 1 to 3 inches for the Mat-Su
Valleys.

Similarly, the most likely (60-70%) scenario for the eastern
Kenai Peninsula is 6 to 12 inches of snow for Whittier, Portage
and the Seward Highway corridor to Primrose, with the highest
amounts for Portage and Turnagain Pass. Lesser amounts, on the
order of 1 to 3" of snow are likely for Seward given a strong
northerly wind that will likely keep temperatures around or just
above freezing, helping to limit snow accumulations.

The next issue will be the extent of warmer air aloft as the front
moves west and an easterly flow develops at and near the surface.
Model blends show snow levels rising to around 1200 ft, with high
confidence that snow quickly changes to rain for Whittier,
Portage, and eastern Turnagain Arm by Sunday night as temperatures
rise into the upper 30s. The uncertainty lies in how much
temperatures along the Seward Highway from Turnagain Pass to
Primrose warm as the warmer air aloft moves in. As such, there is
a low to medium chance (30-40%) that some areas along the road see
freezing rain late Sunday night before a changeover to rain
sometime Monday morning.

Snow will also fall across the southwest Kenai Peninsula with this
event with 2 to 6 inches of snow likely (60-70%). For areas of the
western Kenai and Anchorage Bowl, there remains a chance (30-40%)
that snow may change to freezing rain Sunday night as the warmer
air aloft reaches Cook Inlet. Again, there is some uncertainty
with the extent of warm air. The GFS is the warmest solution
with the GEM the coldest. The NBM and RRFS/REFS are a good middle
ground pushing the warm nose to the Kenai area.

By Monday morning, uncertainty grows regarding whether this system
lingers over the southern Kenai Peninsula or begins to lift back
northward. Currently, the likely (60-70%) scenario is for
precipitation to lift back to the north as light wintry mix,
based on most guidance. The GFS is the one model stalling the
front farther south.

Probabilistic snow totals from the previous forecast...

 *Low/High end values are as follows:
 - Anchorage/Eagle River & western Kenai Peninsula: 2-4" (Low end)
   / 6-10" (High end). Higher elevations: up to a foot possible.
 - Seward: 1-3" (Low end) / 3-6" (High end).
 - Turnagain Pass to Moose Pass: 7 to 11" possible.
 - Portage: 9-11" with snowfall rates of up to 1" an hour.

KM/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A low end gale force low pressure system has entered the western
Bering Sea this morning, bringing a round of mostly rainfall with
some snow on its front`s leading edge. A tongue of relatively
warmer air south of the front`s triple point will work its way
eastward across the Bering with the system progression and
increase snow levels to as high as 1600 feet, allowing for pre-
frontal snow to change to rain. The front is expected to progress
eastward reaching Sand Point/Cold Bay by Sunday morning, before
weakening, stalling out and retrograding back west as the
parental low dives out of the region. As mentioned, the low center
by Sunday morning will pivot, and shift it`s trajectory
southward, yielding a swath of solid northwesterly to westerly
gales on its western periphery. These winds are on track to arrive
to Adak and Atka later Sunday morning, and then as the low drives
southward closer to the Aleutian Chain, the strongest winds are
most likely to stay west of Unalaska. Alaska Peninsula high end
small craft to gale force gap winds reinvigorate and become more
widespread as the low departs Monday morning. Keeping an eye on
Cold Bay in this synoptic setup, as a northwesterly wind aligns
with the gap and winds can be greatly enhanced there.

By Monday afternoon, a stronger gale to storm force low
approaches the Western Aleutians from the south and then ventures
into the southern Bering Tuesday morning. There is potential for
this system to bring hurricane force gusts over Amchitka, with
mild potential for these strong winds to extent to Adak.
Confidence is low, with model guidance split on the low`s strength
and trajectory. We will continue to monitor these systems so stay
tuned.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Troughing continues into the middle of next week over Southern
Alaska and the Bering. Multiple lows will move through the
forecast area through the middle of next week, resulting in a more
unsettled weather pattern.

By Monday morning, a low pressure system looks to be positioned
in the eastern Bering with another low pressure system in the
eastern Gulf. The low in the eastern Gulf moves to the western
Gulf by Monday afternoon and becomes the primary low as the low
from the Bering merges into it. The merged low looks to stall in
the western Gulf Monday evening and weaken through Wednesday
morning before it dissipates.

Scattered snow showers look to continue across the Bering and the
Alaska Peninsula through Tuesday as cold air continues to stream
in around the low. Some isolated snow showers are possible across
Southwest Alaska on Monday, though most precipitation looks to
remain offshore. With slightly warmer temperatures near the
Aleutians, some rain may mix in with snow through Tuesday.
Precipitation should taper off for Southwest, the Alaska
Peninsula, and the eastern Bering and Aleutians by Tuesday morning
as the low continues to weaken in the Gulf. For Southcentral,
highest chances for precipitation through Wednesday morning will
be along the northern Gulf Coast and Kodiak Island, with lower
chances for precipitation for the Western Kenai, Anchorage and
places inland. Confidence is still medium with exact low
placement, with a low closer to shore increasing precip chances
inland. The Gulf low brings in slightly warmer air to Southcentral
from the North Pacific. Confidence is medium-high for most
locations at low elevations of Kodiak Island and the northern Gulf
Coast to receive rain and for most inland and higher elevation
locations to receive snow (if precip makes it there).
Precipitation type could be a mix for the western Kenai,
Anchorage, and the Mat-Su should precip fall between Monday and
Wednesday. Details will become more clear as we see what the weak
system this weekend does.

The strongest low looks to impact the western Aleutians and
Bering as it moves out of the northwest Pacific starting Monday
afternoon. Confidence is high that this low deepens to at least
960 mb by Wednesday and has strong winds around it as it moves
across the western Aleutians into the southern Bering.
Precipitation will likely be a rain/snow mix on the east side of
the low and mostly snow on the west side of the low. Confidence is
medium-low with the exact track of the low as, by Wednesday
morning, models have it positioned somewhere between the eastern
Aleutians to just north of the Pribilofs. Where the low tracks
will have an effect on potential hazards the low brings,
especially as a sting jet of up to hurricane-force winds looks to
develop south of the low on Tuesday. Should the low track in the
southern Bering, these winds line up along the Aleutian Chain into
the southern Alaska Peninsula Tuesday-Wednesday. A further north
track would keep these winds in the Bering but could bring some
coastal flooding concerns to the Southwest Coast. Exact
positioning and hazard concerns will become more clear in the
coming days.

A front from this low looks to enter the Southwest Alaska and
southwestern Gulf Wednesday morning and move onshore the northern
Gulf Coast Wednesday afternoon. Chances for precipitation return
for both Southwest and Southcentral Wednesday-Thursday, with
highest confidence in Southwest Alaska and along the northern Gulf
Coast. Confidence is medium on Wednesday for gale- force winds
along this front in the Gulf. The low weakens starting Wednesday
afternoon as it tracks into Bristol Bay/the Alaska Peninsula.
Winds look to weaken, though precipitation likely remains across
Southwest and the Alaska Peninsula. By Thursday afternoon there is
general agreement of this low being positioned over the northern
Alaska Peninsula.


- PA

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Light northerly winds will persist through today and
tonight. Morning satellite imagery reveals fog and low stratus
with LIFR cigs and vis both over the terminal and just to the
north of the terminal over Knik Arm. There is still some
uncertainty as to how long this fog and low stratus will linger at
or near the terminal. The expectation is for VFR conditions to
return by the late morning hours.

Attention then turns to a weather system approaching from the
east that will work into Prince William Sound by tonight.
Precipitation looks to spill over the Chugach Range and into
Anchorage by Sunday morning. Precipitation-type is expected to be
in the form of snow Sunday morning. Expect low-end VFR conditions
to MVFR conditions Sunday morning. IFR conditions are possible
within bursts of heavier snow. There continues to be some
uncertainty in regards to snow intensity and somewhat with the
timing of the onset of snow. In lighter snow, expect more in the
way of VRF conditions to be maintained. However, in heavier bursts
of snow with high fall rates, expect more in the way of MVFR to
possibly IFR conditions Sunday morning.

&&


$$