Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

394
FXAK68 PAFC 110109
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
409 PM AKST Tue Nov 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A few lingering showers remain across the coastal mountains, as
today`s low has substantially diminished in strength. A
southeasterly wind regime has lead to a few pockets of sunshine on
the lee side of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains and around Kodiak
Island - if these pockets remain overnight, temperatures could
drop lower than forecast, and fog may develop by morning -
something to watch out for in the forecast. Otherwise, quiet
conditions are forecast overnight before the next round of
precipitation moves in from the eastern Gulf early Wednesday
through Thursday, primarily effecting areas around the the Prince
William Sound and Kenai Peninsula, though light precipitation
could move further inland as far as Anchorage, the Mat-Su and the
Copper River Basin by late Wednesday/early Thursday morning. This
system will bring gusty mountain winds, but won`t be quite as
warm aloft, nor as dynamic; therefore, while there will be a rain-
snow mix below 1500 ft (snow above), amounts should be much
lighter.

Generally cooler and drier conditions are in store for the end of
the week. However, the active pattern continues with another
round of showers likely by Sunday.

-AB

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, northwesterly winds with cold air advection across the
Bering to as far south as the Aleutians and North Pacific is
driving scattered ocean effect snow showers across the region.
With a low to the east in the Gulf and an emerging North Pacific
low from the subtropics, this interaction is tightening the
pressure gradient across these areas as well, which is elevating
gap winds across the eastern half of the Aleutian Chain and Alaska
Peninsula this afternoon.

Freezing fog is likely (60 to 70% chance) for the Kuskokwim Delta
for areas like Bethel Wednesday morning as light northwesterly
winds shift to southwesterly and an onshore component with
moisture advection off of the Bering works into the region.
Forecast model soundings do show a subtle low level inversion
setting up as well, but as surface temperatures slowly warm late
Thursday morning, the inversion will erode and fog will begin to
dissipate.

Also by Wednesday morning, a North Pacific low`s front sideswipes
the North Pacific side of the Central Aleutians with a round of
high end small crafts and gales, with the strongest core of these
winds staying well offshore. Warm air advection ahead of the front
and rising snow levels should allow for most of it associated
precipitation to fall as rain (30 to 40% chance of rain/snow mix
possible on the leading edge of precipitation). The GFS today has
become more in line with other guidance and the track of the low
has been shifted farther south with this afternoon forecast
package. This low pressure system moves eastward through Wednesday
afternoon and tracks south of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula as it does so. Expect high end northerly to
northwesterly small craft winds in the wake of this system to be
enhanced through the gaps of the Central Aleutians Wednesday
night. Gap winds pick up again for the Alaska Peninsula by midday
Thursday in the wake of the exiting North Pacific low.

Another relatively deep North Pacific low is on track to move
south of the Aleutian Chain Friday morning as a weaker system
approaches the Western Aleutians.

-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

Friday starts with less active weather across Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska as weak ridging builds over the Bering and weak
features move the Alaska mainland. Cold air advection drops into
Southwest Alaska, allowing for scattered snow showers. The
northerly flow will allow for small craft level gap winds in the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula areas and scattered showers
over much of the Bering. Also, another low moves into the Shemya
area from the west, bringing another round of gusty winds and
rainfall.

Saturday sees this low move further into the Bering, allowing for
the low`s front to progress and bring rain to much of the
Aleutians. Gusty winds also will impact the Aleutians with the
front. Meanwhile, Southcentral sees a low move south of the Gulf
of Alaska, turning winds more northwesterly along Kodiak Island
and allowing for gap winds in the waters around the island.
There is much uncertainty on Sunday in the Bering with regards to
the low track. It will progress eastward, but it is uncertain
where it will track to. However, whichever track it takes should
still bring rain and snow to the Southwest Mainland and gusty
winds along the Aleutians. Southcentral`s forecast is still
uncertain at this point with many low level features moving
through and bringing rain/snow and elevated winds wherever they
move. Monday is even more uncertain with a ridge building
somewhere in the Bering and a low moving into the Gulf of Alaska.
However, the exact track of these features and their impacts is
too uncertain to be clarified at this moment.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF
period. Light rain will continue into the afternoon, with
ceilings generally remaining above 4000 ft. Northerly winds will
gradually shift easterly through the afternoon, increasing to
around 10 kt with gusts up to 18 kt. Low-level wind shear will
remain possible as stronger easterly winds around 35 kt persist at
2000 ft AGL.

Rain showers will taper off later this afternoon, with vicinity
showers possible through the evening. Ceilings will gradually
lift overnight, with VFR conditions continuing through Wednesday
morning. Winds will shift back northerly and diminish overnight,
becoming light and variable by Wednesday morning. Low-level wind
shear is expected to diminish overnight as stronger winds aloft
weaken.

-LM

&&

$$