Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

541
FXAK68 PAFC 080224
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
524 PM AKST Sat Mar 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: This afternoon through Monday evening)...

Key Messages:

* Snow showers linger across portions of Southcentral through the
  weekend.

* Strong northerly and westerly gap winds will develop along the
  coast beginning tonight.

* Another shot of arctic air will spill south beginning Saturday
  night. The combination of cold temperatures and winds could push
  wind chill values well below zero for many locations by Sunday
  night.

Discussion:

Aloft, an upper level low is located just west of the Cook Inlet
region and is providing enough instability to continue scattered
flurries and light snow showers across the region. Only light
additional accumulations are expected until precipitation comes to
an end tonight. 500 mb analysis from the global models show the
meridional flow reorienting through early tomorrow morning,
causing the trough containing the upper level low to again to take
a positive tilt and dig southeastward over the Gulf.

In the wake of the upper level low, another shot of arctic air
will stream south, resulting in an increase in gap winds along the
coast and temperatures falling well below normal for this time of
year, similar to what was observed last week. Light snow will
also develop across the Copper River Basin prior the advancement
of the cold air, as a shortwave moves over the region along with
moisture from the southeasterly flow ahead of the digging low.

The gusty winds will likely peak late tonight into Sunday for
Kodiak, where gusts to 50 mph, combined with occasional snow
showers, are not out of the question for communities on the
island. For communities along the southcentral coast (e.g. Seward
and Whittier), expect gusty winds to also develop tonight with
peak overnight. A second peak of stronger wind gusts is likely
late tonight through Sunday with gusts to 50 mph possible.

Looking ahead to Monday, nearly vertically stacked high pressure
from the Bering begins to nudge eastward, reinforcing the arctic
airmass across Southcentral. The thermal gradient and increasing
pressure gradient will continue/or strengthen gap winds through
typical locations, especially through Kamishak Gap and the Barren
Islands.


-AM/TM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Tonight through Tuesday)...

A closed upper level low is now moving over the western Alaska
Range, embedded within the envelope of a much larger trough
extending over much of the Alaska Mainland. Much of Southwest
along with the eastern Bering Sea remain under the influence of
strong northwest flow situated between the low to the east and a
high pressure ridge extending into the western Bering. Extensive
ocean-effect snow showers are continuing to affect much of eastern
Bering and Alaska Peninsula as cold air streams off the ice edge
across open water and picks up warmth/moisture from the sea
surface. Gusty winds coupled with the extensive snow shower
activity has caused significant reductions to visibility today
along much of the Bering side of the AKPen, where Winter Weather
Advisories for blowing snow are now in effect. Farther north,
falling snow is mostly beginning to clear out across Southwest as
the upper support begins to wane near the weakening system to the
east. Blowing snow has still locally been a problem due to the
gusty winds along the coast, especially near Toksook Bay, where a
Winter Weather Advisory is also now in effect. Cold Weather
Advisories also remain in effect for both the Kuskokwim Delta and
much of the AKPen due to frigid wind chills ranging from 15 to 40
below zero.

Going forward into the first part of next week, the general
pattern is not expected to change very much. The currently subtle
ridging over the western Bering will amplify quite a bit with time
through Tuesday. This will keep fairly quiet and steadily warming
conditions in place for most of the western parts of the Aleutian
Chain. Periodic snow showers will be more common for the Fox
Islands, Pribilof Islands and AKPen as multiple impulses travel
south between the developing Bering ridge and trough over the
Mainland through Monday. Drier but still very cold conditions will
persist across most of Southwest, where wind chills in the -10s
to -30s will be common for the next few nights. This unusually
cold pattern continues to prove very resilient, and is set to
persist for the foreseeable future.

-AS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Few changes to the previous discussion. Some hazards to watch for
in the long-term include:

* Another round of frigid wind chills as an Arctic air mass moves
  into Southern Alaska.

* Gusty gap winds, mostly along the coast and affecting locations
  such as Seward, Whittier, Valdez, Thompson Pass, Kodiak Island.

Upper-level troughing centered over the northern Gulf of Alaska
will extend south into the Northern Pacific, with multiple
shortwaves rotating around the trough. High pressure builds across
the Bering Sea through the forecast period. Strong northwesterly
flow and cold air advection will result in gusty gap winds and
cold temperatures across the Alaskan Peninsula. A tightening
coastal pressure gradient will also create strong winds through
the gaps of the North Gulf Coast. Forecast confidence is high that
both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska will continue to see below
normal temperatures through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Periods of generally light snow showers are expected to
persist through the night. However, significant additional snow
amounts are not expected. MVFR to IFR ceilings and/or visibilities
will likely accompany these snow showers and the MVFR ceilings
may linger throughout the night even when there is not a snow
shower occurring.
Monday should see VFR conditions returning, as the upper level low
tracks southeastward and away from the region and surface flow
turns northerly. The VFR conditions in cold and dry northerly
flow are expected to persist Monday night and beyond.

&&


$$