Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

998
FXAK68 PAFC 131237
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 AM AKDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The abnormally cold temperatures continue this morning with calm
to light winds for all but a few gap locations, and minimal cloud
cover. This has allowed temperatures across interior Southcentral
to quickly drop overnight, especially in the Copper River Valley
where ambient temperatures have fallen into the negative 20s to
lower 30s. Elsewhere, temperatures are generally in the single
digits to negative teens. In regards to temperature normals for
this time of year...we are running approximately 10 to 20 degrees
colder than normal for high temperatures and 10 to 25 degrees
colder than normal for low temperatures. Unfortunately, long-range
models have this cold pattern continuing through the end of the
model runs.

The lack of wind drying out the boundary layer has resulted in some
patchy fog and low clouds developing along the Knik Arm this
morning. Any pockets of fog are expected to "burn-off" later this
morning. Weather continues to look quiet today with just some
increasing cloud cover for areas along the Gulf coast and some high
clouds starting to stream in from the north.

A trough dropping south over the AKPEN today will help to reinforce
and deepen low pressure over the Gulf. Another system will drop
down towards the western Alaska Range later tonight will
increasing cloud cover helping to keep overnight temperatures in
check. The trough will continue to dig south on Saturday towards
the Cook Inlet where it will stall before the low closes off over
the Gulf Sunday into Monday. This system will help to draw
moisture northwards with accumulating snowfall possible for the
northern Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound. Light snow may
spread over the mountains into the southern Copper Basin, and
possibly some spill over into Anchorage and the Mat valley late
Saturday night into Sunday.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3/Today through Sunday)...

The persistent northerly flow continues over Southwest Alaska and
the Bering Sea. Generally, Southwest Alaska and the western
Bering Sea will stay dry, while the Alaska Peninsula and eastern
Aleutians will contend with snow showers through today as a
shortwave tracks southwards through the eastern Bering and into
the northern Pacific. Winds along the Alaska Peninsula and eastern
Aleutians remain breezy, allowing for the continued possibility
for mild blowing snow and reduced visibilities through this
afternoon and evening before snow showers diminish.

For the remainder of the weekend, conditions dry out while the
same pattern of ridging across the western Bering and northerly
flow across the eastern Bering and Southwest Alaska continues.
This will mark a prominent shift to a relatively inactive pattern
across Southwest Alaska, the Bering Sea, and the Aleutians. With
ridging dominating the pattern, expect dry conditions across the
region through the weekend, with cold northerly flow persisting.
By the end of the weekend, models have come into better agreement
on an Arctic trough digging south across the Interior and into the
western Gulf of Alaska. This will again allow for northerly winds
to strengthen across Southwest Alaska, the Alaska Peninsula, and
the eastern Bering Sea for Sunday into Monday. These stronger
winds combined with low level cold air advection will lead to
areas of heavy freezing spray in coastal waters along the ice
edge.

-JH

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

The long-term forecast begins late Sunday with the persistent
upper-level ridge over the western Bering and Aleutians remaining
firmly entrenched over the region. Downstream, a positively
tilted, elongated upper-level trough bisecting Southcentral and
extending south into the Western Gulf and across the North
Pacific.

Although the main surface low looks to be exiting the region,
various vorticity maxima along the leading edge of the upper-level
trough will help to develop and sustain compact, meso-scale
surface lows across the northern Gulf along a stalled surface
trough. Where, exactly, these features spin up are extremely
difficult to pinpoint in the short-term, let alone the long-term
forecast. However, any development of surface features will
likely lead to lingering snow for places along the immediate
coast and/or Kodiak Island. These features will also aid in
strengthening the already increasing pressure gradient along the
as cold air moves in from the interior, resulting in another round
of very strong and gusty gap winds for typical locations into
early next week.

A secondary upper-level trough will quickly dig south on the
heels of the first, likely allowing any surface low development
in the northern Gulf to further strengthen Monday into Tuesday,
with light snow chances redeveloping for areas expected to see
light snow this coming weekend. The bigger impact from this second
upper-level trough, however, will be the return of arctic air
streaming from the Interior across the Southern Mainland, with the
strongest push of this arctic air late Sunday into Monday for
Southwest Alaska and Monday into Tuesday for Southcentral.

As stated yesterday, uncertainty grows by early next week as to
how quickly this trough closes off into an upper-level low as it
moves south over the Gulf. If this feature does move quickly into
the Gulf, an upper-level ridge may move over the Southern
Mainland. Any upper-level ridge will likely shut off the cold air
advection, at least aloft, and potentially allow for a slow but
steady warm up by the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light and variable winds will persist
through the TAF period.

&&


$$