Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

034
FXAK68 PAFC 210112
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
412 PM AKST Fri Feb 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Tonight
through Monday)...

A high amplitude pattern is in place, with a strong blocking ridge
over the north-central Pacific and Bering Sea and a trough with
embedded low center over the Gulf of Alaska and northeast Pacific.
A strong jet stream on the leading edge of the ridge extends from
north to south across the western mainland of AK, with a jet streak
of 150 kts or more quickly exiting southward across Kodiak Island
and the western Gulf this afternoon. Arctic air surged southward
across Southcentral and into the Gulf yesterday afternoon through
last night. The airmass in place in now quite frigid, with 850mb
temperatures ranging from around -12 degrees Celsius over the
Gulf to -28 degrees Celsius in the Copper River Basin. The cold
air advection and passage of an upper short-wave produced high
winds along the Gulf coast and Prince William Sound and out across
the coastal waters. Winds for most areas peaked last night,
though remain quite strong thanks to tight pressure and thermal
gradients at the surface, the passage of vorticity-maxima tracking
north to south right ahead of the ridge, and the arrival of the
upper jet in Southcentral. Also of note, a slight change in the
mean atmospheric flow is leading to increasing pressure and
thermal gradients between the Matanuska Valley and the Copper
Basin. As a result, northeast winds are strengthening across the
Mat Valley. Temperatures this afternoon are in the single digits
to teens (with some 20s along the coast) while wind chills are
below zero in many places.

The forecast remains largely on track. It does look favorable for
winds in Valdez/Thompson Pass to remain near their peak for longer
than originally expected. A series of vorticity-maxima will drop
through the area this afternoon and evening. After that, the ridge
will very slowly shift from west to east, allowing winds to begin
incrementally diminish. Based on this, will extend the High Wind
Warning for Thompson Pass into the overnight hours tonight.

Winds across Southcentral, Kodiak Island, and the Gulf will
diminish from west to east tonight through Sunday, lingering
longest in Valdez/Thompson Pass and the Copper River Delta. As
wind Advisories and Warnings expire, will need to consider
replacing some of these with Cold Weather Advisories as
temperatures and wind chills continue to fall. This particular
cold weather outbreak will, however, be fairly short-lived. The
upper ridge axis will tilt over Southcentral Saturday night
through Sunday as a storm system rides up and over the ridge way
into the Arctic. The low level airmass will rapidly warm. Then on
Monday, a short-wave moving out of Asia will drive southeastward
toward mainland Alaska, helping to squash the ridge and push it
off to the south. As a result, clouds and precipitation will move
back into Southcentral Monday through Monday night. This looks
like it will be a glancing blow, with a quick shot of snow before
the short-wave rapidly exits to the Gulf.

-SEB

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

High amplitude upper level ridging continues over Southwest
Mainland and much of the Bering Sea, ushering cold, Arctic air
across Southwest Alaska through tonight. Overnight lows will once
again drop below zero in interior locations while coastal areas
drop into the low teens.

A steady feed of moisture will continue streaming over the
Western Aleutians and Bering Sea through the weekend as a
Kamchatka low elongates on the western side of the ridge. A robust
Arctic trough will aid in flattening out the ridge on Sunday,
allowing for moisture to stream into the Kuskokwim Delta by early
Monday morning. Warmer air aloft over near-freezing surface
temperatures will create conditions favorable for a freezing
rain/snow mix over the Kuskokwim Delta on Monday, reaching the
Bristol Bay region by Monday evening. The aforementioned Arctic
trough will rush in cold air behind it, transitioning
precipitation type to all snow by Tuesday for the Kuskokwim Delta
and Tuesday evening for Bristol Bay.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7 - Tuesday through
Friday)...

A ridge breaks down over the Bering on Tuesday, allowing yet
another Arctic trough to drop southward across Alaska late
Tuesday into Wednesday. This will result in another round of
colder temperatures filtering into much of Southwest and
Southcentral Alaska by the middle of next week. There is potential
for some areas to see minimum temperatures as low as -40 degrees,
though the increasing diurnal cycle at this time of year may
inhibit cold weather advisory criteria from developing over
Southcentral. Renewed gusty winds are forecast with the arrival of
colder temperatures, with the orientation of the upper-level
pattern favoring a northwesterly wind. Strong gap winds will be
possible through the AKPEN, Kodiak Island and the Barren Islands,
as well as through the Sound and Kenai Peninsula. Upper level
support, for maintaining gusty conditions, is forecast to persist
over the Gulf coast and Southcentral through Thursday, eventually
weakening by Friday as a trough over the Gulf Coast shears apart.
As mentioned in the previous discussion, southwesterly flow into
the Kuskokwim Delta will support a wintery mix on Monday, though
increasingly colder temperatures behind a passing front should
transition any subsequent precipitation to all snow by the start
of the long term forecast period, with snow quickly clearing out
as well.

BL

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will persist. Gusty northerly winds will
continue through Saturday morning before diminishing.

&&


$$