Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

369
FXAK68 PAFC 291213
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A shortwave trough is currently moving through Anchorage and the
Mat-Su Valleys this morning, bringing areas of light rain and
mountain snow. These will taper off through the morning, spreading
into the Copper Valley and eastern Sound through Wednesday
morning. This shortwave will also usher in some of the coldest air
of the season, with 850 mb temperatures dropping to around -2C by
Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday and Thursday an upper low and shortwave trough
currently moving off of far eastern Russia will move over Kodiak
Island early Wednesday morning before moving slightly north into
the Gulf coast by Wednesday afternoon. This will help pull
another shortwave trough and even colder airmass currently over
the Chukchi Sea over Southcentral by Thursday. All of these
features will combine to bring lift and a colder airmass to the
region. For Wednesday, there are some discrepancies on where the
surface low will develop, with high-res models pushing the low
into the eastern Sound quicker with the upper level trough further
to the east. This solution would yield drier conditions for
Anchorage and the Mat Valley while leading to steady precipitation
over the eastern Sound and Copper Valley. The alternative is a
slower shortwave and the low lingering south of the Kenai
Peninsula a little longer before then moving into the Sound. This
solution would yield steady precipitation in the form of valley
rain and upper elevation snow for Anchorage and the Mat Valley.
All areas will likely receive precip Wednesday and Thursday, it`s
just a matter of where these features track for who will get the
heavier precipitation. It does still look like the higher
elevations of the Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides will get
snow Wednesday and/or Thursday, with more significant (2-4"
possible) if the slower and farther west storm track ends up
verifying. These areas would be Glenn Alps and South Fork Eagle
River.

&&




.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Thursday)...

Key Messages:

* Sub-freezing overnight temperatures move into Southwest Alaska
  throughout the week.

* A front brings rain and small-force winds in the western
  Aleutians starting this afternoon, spreading eastward on
  Wednesday.

Discussion:

An active pattern continues across the Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska as a series of upper-level lows and shortwaves move across
the region. A weak surface low pressure system in the northern
Bering will drop into the Southeast Bering through this morning,
spreading areas of showers. This feature will dive southeastward
into the Alaska Peninsula by Wednesday morning, spreading rainfall
across the Peninsula. Breezy northwest winds continue in the
eastern Bering and AKPen, especially through favorable gaps. This
weak low moves towards the AKPen and eastern Aleutians Tuesday
evening. Chances for light rain increase for places south of King
Salmon. This system weakens as it moves into the AKPen on
Wednesday. Chances of precipitation decrease throughout the day as
showers become more isolated.

The aforementioned surface low will allow a colder air mass to
spread into Southwest Alaska, with temperatures trending
noticeable cooler compared with recent days. Daytime temperatures
will struggle to warm past the low 40s for Southwest and the mid
40s for the AKPen, while overnight temperatures become
increasingly chilly throughout the week, especially across the
interior portions of Southwest Alaska. Widespread low temperatures
in the low 30s are expected for Southwest tonight, dropping to
the upper 20s by tomorrow night. Tuesday looks to be dry for
Southwest, and with drier conditions, this will allow for cooler
temperatures to remain. The trough with this system will allow
the cooler pattern to persist over western Alaska and the Bering
through Thursday, especially as more cold air is pulled southward.
Overnight lows Wednesday night look to be cooler than earlier in
the week, with high chances many locations across Southwest drop
to the upper 20s, with inland locations down to the mid 20s. For
the AKPen, cloud cover from the next Bering system should help
temperatures stay above freezing.

Farther west, the Aleutians will see a front from a Kamchatka low
moving into the western Aleutians this afternoon, and pushing
the exiting ridge east. Nonetheless, showers and southeasterly
to easterly small-craft force winds are expected to accompany the
front, especially in the western Aleutians. The low eventually
becomes elongated and catches up to the front Wednesday night.
Higher chances for precipitation spread to the eastern Aleutians
and eventually to the Southern AKPen on Thursday as the low
continues east. The area of small- craft force winds also
increases across the Aleutians and Bering Wednesday- Thursday.
Areas of gale-force winds are expected across the southern Bering
as the low traverses the Aleutians.

-CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

An active weather pattern continues as we make our way into
October. An upper level trough over Interior begins to move out of
the region. This was responsible for the colder than average
temperatures for Southwest, Southcentral, and the Alaska
Peninsula. The departure of the low will bring a slight warming
trend through the weekend.

There are signs of slight ridging over Southcentral for Friday,
which will be the best chance to see some sun. This will be short
lived since a Gulf low is expected to bring rain and wind for the
weekend. Looking at integrated vapor transport from the GFS, the
values are low. Which means that the system is not transporting a
lot of moisture from the tropics. Meaning, the low is not expected
to generate a notable amount of precipitation. Using the GEFS
member spread, the pressure gradient is nothing note worthy. No
significant winds are expected at this time.


Another low from Kamchatka comes into the Bering Sea, then tracks
over the Aleutian Chain through the weekend. There is growing
model agreement of the low reaching peak maturity before going
tracking through the Bering. Meaning minimal impacts, just like
the other Bering lows that have gone through this week. There is
low confidence of where the system goes after the weekend. Half of
the members from the GEFS have the centers of the low track into
the Gulf, crossing over the Alaska Peninsula. Other members have
centers scattered around the Bering.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected initially, though brief MVFR
ceilings will be possible through 16Z with passing showers. Light
rain becomes more persistent after 16Z, with ceilings lowering to
around 3500ft and periods of MVFR ceilings near 2500ft possible
through 20Z. Ceilings then improve to around 5000ft after 20Z as
precipitation diminished. Winds remain light through the taf
period, shifting from southerly to northwesterly Tuesday
afternoon.

-LM



&&


$$