Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

986
FXAK68 PAFC 081342
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
542 AM AKDT Thu Oct 8 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Saturday evening)...

Satellite imagery as of 4 AM this morning shows a surface front
and associated upper-level wave moving through the Copper River
Basin. Webcams show areas of snow along the Tok Cutoff near
Mentasta Pass and along the Nabesna Road, where up to an
additional 2 inches of snow is likely before the front exits the
region by this afternoon. Father west, an upper-level ridge with
slightly colder air aloft is moving over Southcentral from the
west. The Cook Inlet area is at the tail end of the aforementioned
shortwave and under an area of very weak flow between a low to
the northeast, a low to the south, and the ridge building in. This
has resulted in very weak winds from the surface through the mid-
levels of the atmosphere with little scouring of the residual low-
level moisture from the precipitation over the past couple of
days and some lift out ahead of the shortwave. As such, scattered
showers have popped up over northern Cook Inlet, NW Kenai
Peninsula, and along the foothills of the western Chugach
Mountains overnight. There is great model consensus that the
atmosphere around the Anchorage Bowl will remain steady state
through late morning or early afternoon before the flow aloft
becomes more southerly. Given this, the updated forecast calls for
scattered showers and continued cloud cover from Wasilla south to
Kenai through around noon today before the shower activity begins
to lift toward the SW Susitna Valley.

Fog and lingering low clouds will be a concern again late tonight
through early Friday morning, prior to the arrival of the next
frontal system. Cooler and drier air will help to scour out some
residual moisture; however, with weak winds and clearing skies
helping to aid in radiational cooling, areas prone to fog (Valdez,
Cordova, Glennallen) will have a 60 to 70 % chance to see some
patchy fog overnight into early Friday morning.

The forecast beyond this evening looks very much on track, with
great model consensus on a strong frontal system bringing
widespread precipitation and gusty southerly gap winds to much of
Southcentral beginning late Friday. Rain will reach southern
Kodiak Island first by late Friday morning and work northeastward
to Cook Inlet, Kenai Peninsula, western Susitna Valley and the
northern Gulf Coast by Friday evening. Most of the road system
should remain warm enough for rain; however, there is a high
likelihood (70-80%) for the higher passes (Broad Pass, Thompson
Pass, Eureka) to see some snow, at least initially, with light
accumulations (2-4") before a change to a rain/snow mix or to all
rain. Higher elevations of Hatcher Pass (above 3,000 ft) will
likely (70-80%) see over 6" of snow with this system.

This front will stream moisture into the region through the
weekend due to southerly winds in the lower atmosphere and
southwesterly winds well aloft driving ample moisture advection,
maintaining steady precipitation for much of the region through
Saturday.

By late Saturday, models show a shortwave driving northward along
the front which will spin up a new surface low NE of Kodiak as
the upper-level wave becomes more negatively tilted. Again, there
is good model agreement that this new feature and its front then
drive toward the northern Gulf for late Saturday with the
development of a coastal ridge out ahead of the front. There is
high confidence (80-90%) that this solution will enhance SE gap
winds through typical locations; however, with the low south of
the Kenai Peninsula, a down inlet flow will set up with high
confidence (80-90%) that the Turnagain Arm jet bend south and
away from Anchorage by Saturday night. The strong southeasterly
flow aloft will also increase downsloping with precipitation
chances in the lee of the coastal mountains diminishing from
60-80% Friday night and into Saturday to 30-40% by Saturday
evening. Downsloping winds off the Chugach will keep most of the
central and northern Copper River Basin dry through Saturday as
well.

-TM


&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Thursday through Saturday)...

Key Messages:

* Ex-Choi-wan will bring active weather through the end of the
  workweek, with conditions gradually improving through Saturday.

* Wind Advisories remain in effect for Unalaska and Dutch Harbor
  through 1 PM today, and for Kuskokwim Delta/Nunivak Island
  through 1 PM Friday. High Wind Warnings have been cancelled.

* A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for Kuskokwim Delta coast
  through 3 PM Friday.


Discussion:

With Ex-Choi-wan curving towards Eastern Russia, the highest winds
(>= 75 mph) have exited our forecast area. Peak winds reached 75
mph at Shemya yesterday, and topped out at 69 mph in Adak and 61
mph in Atka. While the low center itself has moved out of the
area, strong southerly to southeasterly winds continue along the
storm system`s front, which is currently moving over the Pribilof
Islands. The latest observations show peak winds of 63 mph in
Saint Paul and 69 mph in Saint George. In Unalaska/Dutch Harbor, a
gust to 41 mph was observed, though the strongest winds aren`t set
to arrive until later this morning.

The front will move into Southwest Alaska and across the Alaska
Peninsula by late morning/early afternoon, then stall as it runs
up against a ridge over the Mainland. As such, there will be a
decently long duration of southerly onshore winds, bringing the
potential for high surf to the Kuskokwim Delta coast. While the
front will begin weakening tonight, an incoming shortwave will
reinvigorate it, bringing another round of strong winds for Friday
morning. The latest model runs have shown some variance in how far
west or east this front will shift as that shortwave moves in; the
current forecast reflects a more westerly track (stronger winds
for Kuskokwim Delta coast), but other models are showing strongest
winds a bit further east, which could lead to greater impacts for
Bristol Bay. This will bear watching over the next few model
cycles.

By Friday evening, the center of low pressure will begin to
gradually move eastward across the Northern Bering as it continues
to weaken. This will allow the front stalled over the Southwest
coast to progress toward the interior, shifting the core of
heaviest rain to the southern AKPen and western Alaska Range. A
series of weaker shortwaves will round the low, leading to showery
conditions for much of the region through Saturday. Winds will
remain elevated through the Bering, with widespread small-crafts,
but will gradually diminish as the low fills in.

-LM/KC/CW

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A deep upper low in the northern Bering Sea with an upper level
ridge over the Southcentral starts to breakdown Sunday, allowing
for moisture advection under southwesterly flow through southern
mainland. Winds begin to diminish, but showery precipitation will
linger for Southwest Alaska as the front moves inland. A surface
low will develop along the front in the Gulf of Alaska, with
strong, southeasterly surface winds. Ample moisture is expected to
move through the Gulf and Southcentral. Most of the precipitation
will be focused toward Kodiak Island, the northern Gulf coast,
and Prince William Sound. The bulk of the moisture looks to move
into the northeastern Gulf Monday. Southeast flow would promote
precipitation enhancement through orographic lift along the
windward slopes and downslope drying to the leeside. The amount of
precipitation will depend on the progression of the front, the
amount of precipitable water in the vertical column, and the
location/time of the surface low the Gulf.

Confidence decreases early next week as the main upper level
trough starts to phase with a potentially vigorous low emerging
from the North Pacific, south of the Aleutians. Some data suggests
that this low tracks more north into the Bering (20 to 30 percent
chance), but another batch of data (and the current forecast with
50 to 60 percent confidence) suggests a track that remains to the
south of the Aleutians, toward the western Gulf. There will be
plenty of moisture with this system, but the amount of
precipitation for the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula will depend
upon the strength of this low as it approaches the Aleutians. As
this combined trough moves east midweek, we start to see
additional breakdowns in model consensus (and therefore
confidence) for the wind forecast, especially as the front
approaches the Gulf and Southcentral. Although the current
guidance suggests sustained gale force winds with storm force
gusts along the front, this system has the potential to produce
sustained storm force winds (20 to 30 percent chance) across the
Gulf and along the northern Gulf coast into Prince William Sound.
This will be dependent upon not only the strength of low pressure
system, but also its placement in relation to the geographic
features across southern mainland Wednesday and Thursday. The
forecast is expected to evolve - check back for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Generally VFR with variable winds around 5 kt or less
through much of the day. Lingering low-level moisture, weak lift,
and little to no wind flow in the boundary layer as resulted in
the development of scattered showers around the terminal this
morning. Given the weak wind flow, it will be tricky to pin down
the exact movement of these showers through the morning hours. As
such, there is a chance (25-35%) that a rain shower moves over the
terminal between 5 AM and 11 AM AKDT. Any rain shower near or over
the terminal will likely (60-70%) lower ceilings to MVFR. Ceilings
improve later today as a light southerly wind aloft helps to drive
any shower activity toward the lower Susitna Valley and away from
the terminal. MVFR ceilings are likely again (60-70%) by early
Friday morning as a wind flow up Cook Inlet develops bringing
another round of low-level moisture toward the terminal

&&

$$