Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

547
FXAK68 PAFC 121213
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
413 AM AKDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Monday through Wednesday evening)...

An active upper-level pattern remains in place across
Southcentral Alaska through midweek as a broad trough and
embedded shortwaves continue to influence the region. Model
guidance generally agrees on the overall pattern, though
differences remain in the timing and placement of individual
disturbances.

For today, the second in the series of the upper-level shortwaves
upstream of the region and embedded in the southwesterly flow
downstream of the longwave trough will move from the AKPen to the
northern Gulf. This feature, along with the exiting shortwave this
morning, will maintain chances for precipitation across portions
of Southcentral, particularly along the northern Gulf Coast,
Prince William Sound, and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. Rain is
favored at lower elevations, with snow possible across higher
terrain and mountain passes. Farther inland, including Anchorage,
Mat-Su Valleys, and Copper River Basin, precipitation is expected
to be more scattered. Similar to yesterday, there is good moisture
advection and instability with these waves. As such, some of
these showers could by heavy and produce one to two tenths of an
inch of precipitation in a short period of time.

Heading into Monday night and Tuesday, additional shortwave energy
rotating through the broader trough will maintain unsettled
pattern. Coastal areas will remain favored for precipitation,
while inland locations may see periods of drier weather between
disturbances. These waves will also usher in colder air aloft,
allowing for better instability and increasing lapse rates,
resulting in the potential for an isolated thunderstorm. The best
chance for any thunderstorm activity will be near the center of
these waves, out over the open water of the Gulf and near the
immediate coast from Kayak Island to Montague Island.

Attention then turns toward the middle of the week as model
guidance indicates a potentially stronger system developing and
approaching southern Alaska. While there is general agreement that
additional upper-level energy will influence the region,
differences remain in the strength, timing, and eventual track of
the system. These differences will be important in determining the
potential for stronger winds and heavier precipitation across
Southcentral later in the week. Recent model runs overnight are
now indicating that this upper-level feature may become negatively
tilted, helping to draw a deepening surface low from the central
Gulf back toward Prince William Sound. This track would likely
bring a band of heavier precipitation across the coastal Mountains
and over the Copper River Basin. Where models disagree is to how
far west the low tracks before the wave and the low lift
northward. While the heaviest precipitation (mainly in the form
of snow) looks to be concentrated over the western Copper River
Basin, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty as to the
directional extent of the entire precipitation shield (GFS/EC
farther west; hi-res models farther east).

Just outside the forecast period, late Wednesday through Friday,
the potential exists for a more organized storm system to impact
portions of Southcentral and the northern Gulf Coast. Depending on
the eventual track and strength of the low, impacts could include
gusty winds, periods of heavier precipitation, and snow across
higher elevations. However, uncertainty remains in model guidance
regarding the track, timing, and strength of the system.

-LM/TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A large, occluded low continues to remain quasi-stationary and
fill near Gambell this morning. On the backside of the low and to
the low`s south, continued clouds and convective showers are
progressing from west to east across the Bering/Aleutians and into
parts of Southwest Alaska and the Bristol Bay region. Upper level
troughing is gradually becoming less defined over the Bering and
Aleutians, though there are still shortwaves embedded within the
mean flow. One of these upper waves is centered over the Bristol
Bay waters and will drive over Southwest Alaska later this
afternoon, while another is situated south of the Alaska Peninsula
over the North Pacific waters and is progged to enter the Gulf.
Both the high resolution models and global models show an uptick
in shower activity across the Bristol Bay region later this
afternoon as the first wave passes over the area. This sort of
pattern will continue through Tuesday until the surface low
dissipates. By Tuesday morning, a more robust shortwave digging
well south of the Western and Central Aleutian Chain is on track
to interact with an occluding low pressure system emerging
northward from the sub-tropics. Most of the models has these two
features phasing sometime on Tuesday, which in turn will help
deepen the low pressure system.

By Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning, surface high
pressure nudges eastward across the Western Aleutians as a
relatively compact/deep North Pacific low begins to move northward
towards the Alaska Peninsula. The reinforced northwesterly flow
between the two synoptic features will send small craft winds
from the Central Bering to across the Central Aleutians and then
farther southward across the North Pacific waters. From this
interaction, expect northwesterly gap winds moving across the
Central Aleutians with high end small craft sustained winds with
gale force wind gusts on the North Pacific side of the Central
Aleutian Chain. From here, both deterministic runs of the global
models and their ensemble members are shown clustered tightly
together, increasing forecaster confidence for this system. The
low itself is on track to be strong and deep enough to where
easterly to northeasterly gales will be likely on its northern
flank, but models want to stop the low from progressing across
the Alaska Peninsula and instead stall the low just to the south
before moving eastward into the Gulf by the end of the week. Thus,
the main source of uncertainty by the end of the short term
forecast will be exactly how windy the Alaska Peninsula becomes
with the incoming low. From a pattern recognition standpoint, even
stalling just south of the Alaska Peninsula would cause
northwesterly to northerly winds on the low`s northern fringe to
enhance gap winds through favored bays and passes across the
Alaska Peninsula. Given the strength of the low, which models also
seem to be in decent agreement with (in the ballpark of 970 to
980 mb), expect gales funneling through the gaps with high end
gales on the North Pacific side of the Alaska Peninsula with the
potential for gusts to storm force. If the forecast remains fairly
on track, an increase of easterly Kamishak Gap winds can be
expected as well as the low nears the Alaska Peninsula. Stay
tuned.

-AM

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast starts off on Thursday with a strong low
south of the Alaska Peninsula tracking towards the Gulf of Alaska.
Strong northerly gap winds persist over the Unalaska and Alaska
Peninsula. The winds will be further enhanced by cold air
advection. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska, strong
easterly winds impact Kodiak and the gap regions around the
island starting Thursday morning. A barrier jet may also set up
along the Southcentral Coast. The strength of these winds will
depend of the track and strength of the low, which are still
uncertain. Rain and snow at higher elevations will push into
Southwest and coastal Southcentral Alaska with this low. Friday
sees the low weaken as it continues its track eastward. Wind
speeds will diminish in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as
the low moves east and weakens. Rain and snow will become more
scattered as well. Meanwhile, ridging develops over the Bering,
leading to calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog.
Much uncertainty is present on Saturday regarding the location of
the low in the Gulf. If it remains closer to the coast, rain and
higher elevation snow is likely, but if it moves east, drier
conditions will prevail. On Sunday, a frontal system moves into
the Bering, which will lead to rain and elevated winds potentially
in the Shemya and Adak areas. Southcentral is too uncertain to
get a clear picture on Sunday for now.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... Scattered rain showers persist through much of today,
with rain chances remaining 30 percent or greater through Tuesday
morning. Rain chances will likely be greatest (60 to 70 percent
chance) from late this morning through early evening. VFR ceilings
up to about 5000 ft this morning will likely drop to MVFR around
noon with the arrival of these more frequent rain showers, then
recover to about 3000 to 4000 ft after these showers move out
tonight. Winds remain light out of the southeast.

&&

$$