Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXAK68 PAFC 170033
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 PM AKDT Tue Jun 16 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Ridging continues to build over the Southern Mainland, while a
weak low traverses the southern Gulf towards Southeast AK over
the next couple of days. Benign conditions will continue overall.
Light rain showers will pop up this afternoon, primarily along
terrain in the Copper River Basin and Susitna Valley.
Additionally, there will be periodic isolated diurnally driven
thunderstorms over the next few afternoons as we progress into a
warming trend. For coastal locations, expect diurnally driven sea
breezes each afternoon to continue.

KM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Friday morning)...

Fog/low stratus remains over the Bering as ridging continues. The
low stratus/fog over communities in the Aleutians will follow the
same pattern as before, thinning out during the day and filling
back in during the evening/night. Meanwhile, the Southwest
Mainland is seeing the upper low south of the Alaska Peninsula
continue to move eastward. Due to this, lesser cloud cover and
greater high temperatures are following. This daytime heating will
allow for convection over inland areas of Southwest Alaska.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible (10 to 20%) over the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley through the weekend, with thunderstorm coverage
increasing each day towards the end of the week. An upper low will
drop from the north by Thursday, allowing for cooler temperatures
and non-convective rainfall over the Kuskokwim Delta.

Back to the Bering, by late Wednesday into Thursday, a low will
move southwest of Attu Island. This low will push a front into the
Attu/Shemya region, bringing gusty, easterly winds and light
rainfall. However, the front will stall against the ridge and will
slowly weaken through Friday. The ridge will eventually be
squeezed by the low out west and the low dropping into the
Southwest Mainland. This means that fog/low stratus coverage will
shrink to the middle of the Bering between the Adak/Atka and
Pribilof Islands area by Friday.

-JAR

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Expect unsettled weather late this week into early next week,
though no major impacts are anticipated at this time. The primary
concerns during this period will be (a) thunderstorm potential
across the interior and (b) relatively warm conditions in
Southcentral from late this week into early next week.

Saturday begins with a low in the far western Aleutians, a low
moving into Southwest Alaska from the north, and a low approaching
Kodiak/Alaska Peninsula from the North Pacific. A north-south
oriented ridge extends across the Bering Sea, and another ridge
will extend over eastern Alaska and into Canada. Putting the
pieces together: while ridging will have dominated much of the
Southern Mainland and the Bering Sea late this week, the
encroaching lows from the Arctic and the North Pacific will bring
a transition towards cooler, moister, and more unsettled weather
this weekend. The degree to which this happens will depend on how
the two lows phase and interact with each other, and how strong
the ridge over the interior remains.

Since yesterday, this interior ridge seems to have trended
stronger in model guidance, suggesting that the North Pacific low
and its moisture may be shunted off into Southwest Alaska or
remain in the Gulf altogether, leading to fairly dry conditions in
the Southcentral interior. If this were to happen, this may
extend the potential for thunderstorms into early next week, and
keep temperatures warmer for Southcentral. For Southwest Alaska,
precipitation amounts will depend on how the two lows phase and
evolve. If the North Pacific low is absorbed into the Southwest
low, this will mean greater moisture advection and more rain in
Southwest Alaska. If the two lows remain separate, moisture is
more likely to remain in the Gulf and lead to drier conditions in
Southwest. Either way, it looks likely that Kodiak Island, the
Alaska Peninsula, Eastern Kenai Peninsula, and Prince William
Sound will see rain this weekend from the North Pacific low.

For the Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands, the trend is for the
Western Aleutians low and its front to gradually nudge the Bering
ridge eastwards, leading to more rain and wind moving into the
Bering Sea. The displacement of the ridge will also shift where
fog and low clouds are likeliest into the Central and Eastern
Bering/Aleutians by early next week.

-KC

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

$$