Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

590
FXAK68 PAFC 111233
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
433 AM AKDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:)...

Satellite imagery at 4 AM this morning shows an area of low
pressure near Chenega and associated occluded front both moving
northeast toward the coast. An upper-level shortwave associated
with the surface features has pushed inland over the coastal
mountains and is helping drive a resurgence in precipitation
across Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley as the southeasterly
cross-barrier flow quickly weakens and downsloping wanes.

Winds are beginning to wind down as both the surface low and
pressure gradient between the collapsing coastal ridge and the
strong Bering low weaken. Observed peak winds ranged from 30 to
45 mph across much of the Anchorage Bowl and Matanuska Valley,
45 to 60 mph through Turnagain Arm, and 50 to 75 mph for the
Upper Hillside of Anchorage and Eagle River. It will remain
breezy behind the front, with gusts ranging between 15 and 25
mph.

Winds will also remain gusty through Thompson Pass this morning
with periods of heavy snow through mid-morning. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect for the top of the pass through 10 AM for
blowing snow and significantly reduced visibility.

As for precipitation, totals for this storm have generally been
between 1" and 2.5" along the coast with upwards of an inch of
precipitation in the Susitna Valley. Higher elevations of the
Kenai and Talkeetna Mountains have seen as much as 2.5" to 3.5"
inches. Snow totals have also been impressive, with SNOTEL sites
in Hatcher Pass reporting up to 20" of new snow (Gold Cord Mine:
10" and Snowbird Glacier: 20") with this storm.

Widespread rain and high elevation snow showers will become more
scattered as these feature continue to lift north and weaken
through the day. Persistent south to southwest flow aloft,
however, combined with weaker shortwaves embedded within the
southwesterly flow and moving across Southcentral, will keep
conditions rather unsettled through Monday. The best chance for
showers and higher rainfall (and mountain snowfall) totals through
Monday will be along the coastal mountains and along the south
and west facing foothills of the Talkeetnas and Alaska Range.

-TM

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

As of 5AM, current satellite imagery shows a large and occluded
Bering low near Saint Matthew Island, which is slowly drifting
eastward with time. In the wake of the low, westerly to
southwesterly small craft winds are rounding the southern
periphery for the southern Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain.
Alongside the breezy conditions, waves of convective showers are
moving across the Bering Sea, Aleutians, Bristol Bay region, and
Kuskokwim Delta. With cloud cover locked in and showers pivoting
across Southwest Alaska, temperatures this morning are generally
in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Daytime high temperatures will
largely depend on how quickly clouds try to scatter later this
afternoon, but there is medium to high confidence (60 to 70
percent) that clouds linger for much of the day, which will keep
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s for much of Southwest Alaska.
With the Bering low only slowly moving eastward towards the
Norton Sound through the near term period, there is high
confidence (80 to 90 percent) that tomorrow`s forecast will be
very similar to today`s forecast. Conditions will remain breezy
with areas of small crafts across the Bering/Aleutians and the
cloudy and the convective showery regime will continue through
Monday afternoon.

Starting early next week, the pattern begins to progress as a
much more robust shortwave reaches the Western Aleutians Monday
afternoon and the stagnant troughing breaks down over the region.
As this shortwave drives south across the western Bering,
increasing small craft winds and potentially gale-force gusts
spread across the Aleutians from approximately Shemya to Adak. The
signal in the models is that this wave amplifies, but digs well
south thereafter over the North Pacific while ridging nudges into
the western Bering. Southwest Alaska slowly trends cooler through
the end of the short term, with overnight lows dropping to near
freezing Tuesday morning area wide as both cloud cover and
precipitation chances decrease. Attention then shifts to the south
Wednesday morning as the remnants of a tropical system begins to
emerge northward from the North Pacific. The primary forecast
challenge with this system will be its track/strength and how
close it comes in proximity to the Alaska Peninsula, but the
yesterday evening`s and last night`s deterministic runs from the
global models suggest the system turns more eastward and heads
into the Gulf. Nevertheless, the current GFS/NAM both show a
system with gale force winds and potentially areas of storm force
winds at least coming close to the Alaska Peninsula. The other
thing to watch will be if the aforementioned shortwave interacts
with this system to deepen the low. Stay tuned.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast starts off with a strong low in the North
Pacific tracking south of the Alaska Peninsula. The low will bring
strong northerly gap winds in the Unalaska and Alaska Peninsula
starting Wednesday. The winds will be further enhanced by cold air
advection. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday,
strong easterly winds impact Kodiak and the gap regions around
the island. A barrier jet may also set up along the Southcentral
Coast. The strength of these winds will depend of the track and
strength of the low, which are somewhat uncertain at this point.
Rain and snow at higher elevations will push into Southwest and
coastal Southcentral Alaska with this low. Friday sees the low
weaken as it continues its track eastward. Wind speeds will
diminish in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as the low
moves east and weakens. Rain and snow will become more scattered
as well. Meanwhile, ridging develops over the Bering, leading to
calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Saturday sees
the remnants of Koguma and Nolo potentially merge with the low,
leading to an increase in rainfall and winds, but this will be
mostly east of Southcentral towards the Juneau area. There is
still plenty of uncertainty with these scenarios, so the forecast
will be clarified as time progresses.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Upper level waves moving over the terminal will bring a
return of gusty southeasterly to southerly winds, as well as
frequent rain showers, through this evening. Given models` timing
and placement differences with the weak waves moving through,
confidence is low with the timing of rain showers. Still, current
thinking is that showers will prevail through much of the day,
with a period of lower rain chances (about 40 to 50 percent) in
late morning/early afternoon between two distinct waves. Ceilings
will likely be predominantly MVFR through tomorrow morning, with
improvements to VFR (but still below 5000 ft) between rounds of
rain showers.

&&

$$