Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

740
FXAK68 PAFC 201317
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
517 AM AKDT Wed May 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions return to Southcentral today as
an extensive cloud shield moves in ahead an approaching upper level
shortwave trough. This shortwave is the last gasp of the Bering low
that has been sending a series of shortwaves through southern AK
over the past week. While the Bering surface low lifts north and
eventually merges with an incoming Kamchatka low that is rapidly
deepening near the far western Aleutians, a surface low to the east
of Kodiak Island this morning will continue to move north towards
the Copper River Delta before moving inland. The low has disrupted
the coastal ridge which has brought several days of gusty gap flow
winds. This disruption has allowed precipitation to spill over the
Kenai and Chugach Mountains with minimal downsloping early this
morning; however, as easterly flow increases to the north of the low
as it moves into the northern Gulf, parts of the western Kenai up
through the Mat Valley will see downsloping increase with rain
becoming more showery. Rain will also spread into the Copper Basin
as the low moves inland and the upper wave lifts up towards the
ALCAN border.

Looking ahead... The aforementioned Kamchatka low will lift up into
the Bering...becoming the "new" Bering low. This low will bring
another round of more widespread rain to Southcentral Thursday
morning. The low will drift towards the Southwest Alaska coast, but
will send several shortwave troughs across the AKPEN and into
Southcentral keeping the overall pattern unsettled with below normal
temperatures.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA, THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A strong low is currently moving over the Adak area of the
Aleutians. Rainfall and gusty winds up to gale-force will move
eastward with the low along the Aleutians through today, with the
low arriving at the western coast of the mainland by Thursday
morning. Stronger winds through bays and passes over the Alaska
Peninsula around Cold Bay occur on Thursday. Gap winds will
diminish by Thursday afternoon into as winds turn westerly. Though
small craft winds will linger in the nearshore waters through
Friday afternoon. Showery precipitation will impact the Southwest
Mainland Thursday through Saturday as the low stalls out over the
mainland. There is a chance that some isolated lightning could
occur with some of these showers in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and
on the foothills of the Kuskokwim Mountains on Friday. This
precipitation will slowly diminish as the low weakens. Wind speeds
for inland areas will mostly be breezy, with the coast seeing
higher winds. Weak flow will expected over the Bering by Friday,
allowing for lighter winds and lower precipitation chances over
the Aleutians.

-JAR

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through
Tuesday)...

Broad upper level troughing over the Bering Sea and Gulf looks to
continue to remain in place through the long term. Several
shortwaves rotating around the upper low across the western
Bering, North Pacific, and into the Gulf will continue to support
the active pattern and unsettled conditions across much of
southern Alaska through this weekend into early next week.

Models are in good agreement to begin the long term period with
widespread showers across the southern Mainland as a shortwave
lifts north out of the Gulf. Farther south, a more potent
shortwave and surface low tracks across the southern Gulf with
most of its moisture and energy directed towards the Panhandle. By
early next week, the upper low over the Bering Sea weakens in
favor of a new, stronger low lifting north out of the North
Pacific towards the Aleutians. Some uncertainty remains on the
speed and exact track the deepening surface low takes as it
approaches the Aleutian Chain, but all guidance eventually ends up
tracking this system into the southeastern Bering Sea by late in
the period. Gusty winds accompanied by light to moderate rainfall
can be expected along the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula before
pushing into the Gulf, with the heaviest precipitation expected
along the southern AKPen and immediate Gulf coast.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Periods of light rain showers are likely through this
afternoon. Depending on cloud cover, there is the potential for
more convective type showers to develop by late afternoon along
the Chugach Mountains. Ceilings and visibility are expected to
remain predominantly VFR but periods of MVFR are possible as
showers move through.

&&


$$