Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

312
FXAK68 PAFC 110010
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
410 PM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday night)...

The forecast is on track this morning as a strong occluded front
is pushing east from the western Gulf. A windy and wet pattern
today over Southcentral will continue through the early portion of
the week. The heaviest precipitation is falling along the coast
and across areas favored by upslope flow, such as northern and
eastern portions of the Susitna Valley from Hatcher Pass to Broad
Pass. A strong pressure gradient between a surface ridge over the
eastern Gulf and deep low pressure in the Bering has also resulted
in gusty winds for many locations and has also allowed for the
development of strong southeasterly gap winds through Turnagain
Arm and the Knik River Valley, where gusts around 45 mph will
return tonight.

Widespread precipitation is expected across Southcentral, and with
some slight downsloping over Anchorage and Western Kenai. Largely
rainfall will continue across the region through Monday afternoon.
Snow levels today near 2,000 ft near the Alaska Range and closer
to 3,000 ft near Anchorage today. This will allow snow falling
through mountain passes this morning to at least mix with rain for
a time this afternoon before snow levels fall and precipitation
changes back to snow tonight through Sunday morning.

There remains high confidence in light accumulations expected at
the passes (2-4" lower Broad Pass, 3-6" top of Broad Pass, 4-7"
Thompson Pass). Confidence is also high (80-90 percent) for higher
elevations of Hatcher Pass (> 3,000 ft)to see 6-12 inches of snow
with this system (with totals closer to 2 feet above 4,000 ft). As
such, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Broad Pass. For
lower elevations, temperatures will continue to warm throughout
the weekend as this system moves through.

Regarding precipitation amounts, the heaviest and most persistent
precipitation is expected to be along the northern Gulf Coast,
including Seward (widespread 2-3 inches through Sunday afternoon
with some locally higher amounts possible) and the western Alaska
Range to the northern Susitna Valley (1-3 inches through Sunday
afternoon with some locally higher amounts possible). Downsloping
winds will result in lower total precipitation amounts for the
western Kenai, Anchorage, lower Mat-Su Valleys, and the Copper
River Basin.

Regarding winds, high confidence of gusts up to 55 mph through
Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside and up to 45 mph and 40
mph, respectively, for Knik River and Copper River Valleys.
Southerly small-craft force winds persist through the Gulf on
Saturday, with some gales possible in the southern portion of Cook
Inlet. Winds look to diminish after midnight tonight, and
precipitation may continue through Monday afternoon.

As the low and its associated upper-level trough continues to
lift north Saturday night into Sunday, the barrier jet off the
northern Gulf Coast accelerates to gale-force. Some easterly
gale- force winds likely make it into Price William Sound Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. Winds quickly decrease for
across Southcentral once the front moves through, with the
Turnagain Arm wind decreasing Saturday night and the barrier jet
decreasing Sunday morning. With decreasing winds, the effects of
downsloping also decrease for the western Chugach and Kenai
Peninsula. This will allow precipitation to fill in across the
Cook Inlet and Anchorage Bowl as cross-barrier flow diminishes and
gusty southwesterly flow (especially aloft) redevelops. Rain may
also make it over the Chugach and into the Copper river Basin
Sunday morning as the low moves into the coast and quickly
dissipates.

Troughing continues over Southcentral through Monday. Clouds and
rain showers will likely (60 to 70 percent) linger through Monday
across coastal Southcentral, the Cook Inlet through Mat-Su
Valleys, and along the Alaska Range, with heaviest rain along the
northern Gulf Coast and snow showers over the coastal mountains
and Hatcher Pass. High confidence (>90%) of additional snow
accumulations for the passes late Sunday into Monday.

-CL/TM

&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A steady-state weather pattern continues into early next week as
a large and occluded low continues to spin in the northern Bering
Sea. Broad longwave troughing over the Bering Sea and Aleutians
will remain nearly stationary as several weak shortwaves round the
base of the trough. Breezy winds and increased rain chances will
coincide with these waves as they track across the southern Bering
and Aleutians and into Bristol Bay through Sunday. Elsewhere
across the rest of the Bering and Southwest Alaska, scattered
showers and weakening west to southwest winds persist through the
weekend as the cyclonic upper level flow begins to weaken and the
upper low continues to fill in and drift into Norton Sound.

Heading into early next week, the pattern begins to progress as a
much more robust shortwave reaches the Western Aleutians Monday
afternoon and the stagnant troughing breaks down over the region.
As this shortwave drives south across the western Bering,
increasing small craft winds and potentially gale-force gusts
spread across the Aleutians from approximately Shemya to Adak. The
signal in the models is that this wave amplifies, but digs well
south thereafter over the North Pacific while ridging nudges into
the western Bering. Southwest Alaska slowly trends cooler through
the end of the short term, with overnight lows dropping to near
freezing Tuesday morning area wide.

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The long term forecast starts off with a strong low in the North
Pacific tracking south of the Alaska Peninsula. The low will bring
strong northerly gap winds in the Unalaska and Alaska Peninsula
starting Wednesday. The winds will be further enhanced by cold air
advection. As the low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska on Thursday,
strong easterly winds impact Kodiak and the gap regions around
the island. A barrier jet may also set up along the Southcentral
Coast. The strength of these winds will depend of the track and
strength of the low, which are somewhat uncertain at this point.
Rain and snow at higher elevations will push into Southwest and
coastal Southcentral Alaska with this low. Friday sees the low
weaken as it continues its track eastward. Wind speeds will
diminish in both Southwest and Southcentral Alaska as the low
moves east and weakens. Rain and snow will become more scattered
as well. Meanwhile, ridging develops over the Bering, leading to
calmer winds and potentially low stratus or fog. Saturday sees
the remnants of Koguma and Nolo potentially merge with the low,
leading to an increase in rainfall and winds, but this will be
mostly east of Southcentral towards the Juneau area. There is
still plenty of uncertainty with these scenarios, so the forecast
will be clarified as time progresses.

-JAR

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...
Wind will be the major issue through the evening hours with an
Airport Weather Warning in effect until 1 AM Sunday morning for
wind gusts between 35 and 40 knots. Peak winds should be this
evening right before a slow-moving front passes through the
airport. After frontal passage, the wind should decrease, but
without the strong cross-barrier flow, ceilings and visibility are
also likely to lower in heavier rainfall. Rain with occasional
MVFR conditions are expected overnight with rainfall tapering off
late Sunday morning. Even after the rain ends, ceilings may remain
at or near MVFR levels well into the afternoon.

&&

$$