Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

664
FXAK68 PAFC 101309
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
509 AM AKDT Fri Jul 10 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Friday - Sunday night)...

Satellite imagery this morning shows an upper-level ridge centered
near Eagle along with the upper-level wave that brought widespread
rain to the region yesterday exiting the southern Gulf. Between
these two features, a light northeasterly flow aloft is pushing
some mid-level clouds across the Copper River Basin, out ahead of
a weak shortwave driving from the Yukon Territory toward the Gulf
coast. Linger low-level moisture, along with light near-surface
winds, has allowed for areas of low stratus to develop across the
Copper River Valley and from Talkeetna south to Kenai. These
clouds are expected to erode by mid to late morning as
temperatures warm and drier air continues to move in along with
the ridge. Afternoon temperatures will climb to the upper 60s to
lower to mid 70s for most locations with lingering gap winds along
the immediate coast diminishing by mid to late afternoon.

By Saturday, the ridge shifts east as the next Gulf system
approaches. Rain will spread into Kodiak Island early Saturday
before advancing toward the eastern Kenai Peninsula and western
Prince William Sound through the day. While much of the Susitna
Valley and Anchorage Bowl should remain dry for most of the day,
scattered showers are expected to develop over the western
Talkeetna Mountains and adjacent higher terrain by afternoon.
Increasing instability may support isolated wet thunderstorms
from north of Trapper Creek and Talkeetna, along the western
foothills of the Talkeetna Mountains north toward the Denali
Highway. Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will also increase
along the Gulf Coast, Turnagain Arm, and the Knik and Copper River
Valleys as the coastal pressure gradient tightens.

On Sunday, the Gulf low and associated frontal system continue to
move inland, bringing a more widespread round of precipitation
across Southcentral. periods of rain are expected for the Kenai
Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and much of the Anchorage Bowl,
with showers expanding north and west into the Susitna Valley
through the day. Locally heavier rainfall will be possible along
the windward terrain of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains, while
inland areas experience more showery precipitation. Temperatures
will cool several degrees compared to Friday and Saturday as
clouds and precipitation become more widespread.

LM/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday morning)...

A deepening low pressure system, thanks to a strengthening 300 mb
jet streak and an 850 mb baroclinic zone, will continue its
journey through the southcentral Bering Sea with stop number one
being around the Pribilof Islands late this morning to early
afternoon. The strengthening 300 mb jet streak will be key for
today`s forecast across the Bering and the Pribilof Islands. The
timing at which the 300 mb jet streak interacts with an
amplifying theta-e ridge (moisture-rich warm air aloft) will
determine whether any lightning strikes can occur today across the
eastern Bering Sea. The best time window for a few lightning
strikes to occur near the Pribilof Islands and across the coastal
waters of the Pribilofs will be this morning to early this
afternoon. The marine lightning threat, depending on the
interactions described above, would then shift east to the
Kuskokwim Delta coastal waters late this afternoon to this
evening.

Regardless of marine lightning or not, Southwest Alaska is in
store for a wet weekend with rain first arriving to the Kuskokwim
Delta Coast this afternoon as the Bering low moves east of the
Pribilofs. Rain pushes inland to the interior Kuskokwim Delta and
Kuskokwim Valley by this evening as well as Bristol Bay. Expect
rain to be light to moderate at times. Rain also advances up the
Alaska Peninsula this evening and into interior Bristol Bay and
along the Western Alaska Range by Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, back to the west, shortwave tracks from Kamchatka,
through Bering and over the Pribilof Islands by Saturday morning.
This will bring another round of steady rain to the area. As
steady rain associated with the initial Bering storm tapers to
showers from west to east through Saturday morning, this shortwave
impacting the Pribilofs will shift east to the Mainland Southwest
Coast by Saturday afternoon and evening and into Sunday. The
result will be another round of steady rain moving from west to
east and tapering to showers through Sunday.

Active and unsettled conditions continue into Monday as more
shortwaves move across the Bering, the Pribilofs, and to Southwest
Alaska. There are also indications that another moisture rich low
along with warm air, much like we are seeing unfold today and
into the weekend, will lift through the North Pacific and to
around the Adak/Atka area once more by Monday. Stay tuned to
forecast updates as this wet and active weather pattern continues
to unfold across the Aleutian Chain, Bering Sea, Pribilof Islands,
and the Southwestern Mainland.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

An active weather pattern will continue across Alaska through
much of next week as a broad longwave trough remains in place over
the Mainland, allowing several embedded shortwaves to move
through the flow. Widespread rain is expected to continue across
much of Southwest Alaska Monday into Tuesday, with periods of
moderate rainfall possible where stronger disturbances track
inland. Winds will generally remain light over inland areas,
though breezy conditions will persist along the Gulf coast and
across marine waters.

Farther west, ridging over the Bering Sea early in the period
will promote widespread low stratus and areas of fog across the
Aleutians and Pribilof Islands. On Monday, a developing low and
accompanying trough will move into the Bering, pushing the ridge
eastward and bringing increasing rain and stronger winds to the
western Aleutians before spreading east across the Bering through
midweek.

Confidence decreases by Wednesday and Thursday as model solutions
begin to diverage on the timing and strength of additional
shortwaves. Even so, the overall pattern favors continued
unsettled conditions across much of the mainland Alaska, with
additional rounds of showers and rain likely. Periods of gusty
winds will accompany the stronger systems, particularly along
coastal areas, while temperatures are expected to remain near to
slightly below seasonal normals under persistent cloud cover and
precipitation.

LM


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR conditions early this morning will improve to VFR by
mid to late morning as high pressure and drier air continue to
work into the region. Expect light winds today with a westerly
sea breeze developing by around noon. Southeasterly winds through
Turnagain Arm are expected to develop this evening as a coastal
ridge builds out ahead of a frontal system moving across the
Alaska Peninsula. These winds will likely move over the terminal
overnight tonight or by early Saturday morning with gusts
approaching 25 kt.


&&


$$