Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

334
FXAK68 PAFC 182340
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 PM AKDT Sun Oct 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- A large storm system will bring widespread rain and snow to most
  of Southcentral tonight through Tuesday night.

Discussion:

Skies have struggled to scatter out throughout the day today as a
persistent stratus deck continues to linger across most of
Southcentral. Similar to the previous night and this morning, the
lingering cloud cover will likely again prevent temperatures from
dropping below the 30s across much of Southcentral overnight
tonight. Looking at satellite and radar imagery this afternoon,
high-level clouds and radar returns are beginning to make their
way into the western Gulf, with rainfall beginning to overspread
Kodiak Island as a front lifts across the AKPen, Kodiak Island,
and the western Gulf this afternoon through this evening.

Widespread precipitation will continue to spread across Kodiak
Island this afternoon before spreading north across the Kenai
Peninsula, Susitna Valley, and Prince William Sound tonight
through Monday morning. Initial downsloping may limit precipitation
for a bit across the western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and Mat
Valley but is expected to fill in by late Monday morning. The
precipitation type continues to be a forecast challenge as it will
be highly dependent on the overnight and early morning temperatures.
Wet snow or a rain/snow mix will be possible at the initial onset
of precipitation across the western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Mat
Valley before quickly changing over to rain as warmer
southeasterly flow erodes the cooler airmass currently in place.
Higher elevations (>2000 ft) will see snow with a possible
changeover to a rain/mix for coastal areas. As temperatures drop
back down toward freezing Monday night, precipitation at higher
elevations will transition back to snow. Snowfall is expected to
be slower to change over to rain in the Susitna Valley Monday
morning through Monday afternoon while the Northern Copper Basin
remains cold enough to see all snow.

By Tuesday morning, an additional, stronger low pressure system
lifts north in the Gulf and tracks toward Prince William Sound by
Tuesday night, leading to an additional round of precipitation
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Snowfall in the Susitna Valley and
Northern Copper Basin can expect to see about 2-4" for lower
elevations to 5-10" for the areas along the Denali Highway and
Richardson Highway corridor near Paxson through Tuesday night.
The Glenn Highway from about Sutton over to Tolsona could also
see snowfall totals of between 2-4". These areas will be the most
likely areas to see temperatures hovering near to below freezing
allowing for snow to accumulate. Thompson Pass will also see
mostly snow, though there is a chance it could swing from snow to
a mix of precipitation at times. However, it should remain cold
enough for modest snowfall rates of 1" to 1.5" per hour with the
potential to see accumulations above 10 inches from Monday through
Tuesday night. The coastal areas along the Gulf and Prince
William Sound will see the bulk of precipitation from the system.
The lower- elevations along the coast could see rainfall amounts
of several inches.

The precipitation forecast across the western Kenai, Anchorage,
and the Mat-Su remains fairly uncertain as model guidance
continues to struggle to come to a consensus on a storm track in
the Gulf. A further west storm track in the Gulf could lead to a
much more substantial second round of precipitation for these
areas for Tuesday and Tuesday night, with temperatures likely
cooling back down enough by this time to see wet snow or a
rain/snow mix near sea level. A more eastward track scenario would
largely clear precipitation out of these areas by Tuesday, with
the Gulf coast, Prince William Sound, and Copper Basin continuing
to see a bulk of the precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Rainfall has initiated across Southwest Alaska and the Alaska
Peninsula earlier this afternoon as a front has pushed inland.
A mix of rain and snow has been observed for coastal areas
currently seeing precipitation, with temperatures near or just
above freezing. Precipitation will spread across much of
Southwest Alaska this afternoon. Rain is primarily expected along
the coast as temperatures there are expected to warm quickly as
the front approaches, so areas of rain/snow should transition to
a plain rain by this evening. Further inland may hang onto colder
air a bit longer into this afternoon, allowing for snow initially,
becoming a rain/snow mix. Through Monday, areas such as Sleetmute
and Crooked Creek can expect 1 to 3 inches of snow, however
accumulations at the surface will likely melt during the daytime
hours.

A wave moving across the western Bering Sea will bring the chance
for isolated thunderstorms tonight over Shemya and Attu and over
marine areas. As the wave moves north/west, energy begins to taper
off, however, there remains a slight chance for some isolated
thunderstorms during the early hours on Monday near/over the
Pribilof Islands.

Following the passage of the front, precipitation diminishes
through Monday afternoon. Winds will start to shift northwesterly
across the Bering, primarily across the Alaska Peninsula. As the
pressure gradient grows with a low developing in the northern Gulf
of Alaska, gusty gap winds will develop through favored channels
of the Alaska Peninsula. While there is a fair amount of cooler
air filtering down, the northwesterly flow may limit the upper
limit of gusts as it isn`t quite as favorable of a wind direction
for several of the gaps. Regardless, these fairly gusty winds
should persist through Wednesday morning as a ridge begins to
build in the Central Bering, hinting at a reprieve in the active
weather pattern.

CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)...

Key Messages:

* A strong storm moves across the Bering Sea and into Alaska from
  Thursday through the weekend, bringing winds as high as 40 to
  60 mph.

* Though confidence is low in exact impacts at this time, strong
  onshore winds and elevated coastal water levels are a concern
  for Southwest Alaska on Friday and Saturday.

Discussion:

The biggest story in the long-term forecast will be a strong low
transiting from the Kamchatka Peninsula to Alaska. Ensembles are
in relatively good agreement with this storm, with seemingly
higher-than-average forecast confidence given that this feature is
4 to 7 days out. Good run-to-run consistency among deterministic
global models is also contributing to higher-than-average forecast
confidence. The areas of highest agreement with this feature are
for gale to storm force sustained winds along the front, including
as it moves across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska
coastline. These onshore winds are raising concerns for coastal
impacts (including high surf and perhaps even coastal flooding)
for south-facing portions of the Western coast. It`s too early to
say for now what projected water levels will be, but we will be
closely monitoring this storm. Southcentral should be spared the
worst of the winds with this storm, as the front will very likely
be weakening by the time it exits Southwest Alaska.

In addition to winds, there will also be plenty of moisture advection
along the front, which will bring periods of moderate to heavy
precipitation to the Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest
Alaska. Precipitation amounts are a bit uncertain at this time, as
overall amounts will be dependent on where the front may slow
down and linger as upper waves move through. Given the strong
winds associated with the front, there will likely also be areas
of downsloping that will reduce precipitation totals. While warm
air advection will likely keep precipitation mostly rain for the
majority of Southwest Alaska, colder air lingering in Southcentral
could mean that lower elevation areas may see snow.

-KC

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light north winds will persist through
this evening. Later tonight, a frontal system moving northeast
into Southcentral will bring light precipitation to the terminal.
Low level temperatures could be cold enough for precipitation to
start as a slushy snow or rain-snow mix for a few hours, becoming
all rain by Monday morning as temperatures slowly trend warmer.
MVFR conditions are possible at times during and after the onset
of precipitation starting around 8 to 10z, especially during any
periods of snow reaching down to sea level. Low level wind shear
will also be possible early Monday morning as southeast winds
aloft pick up out ahead of the front. Southeast winds could clip
the terminal for a short time close to midday Monday, but potential
for winds at the surface to turn southeasterly remains highly
questionable at this time.

&&


$$