Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

367
FXAK68 PAFC 171306
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
506 AM AKDT Sat Oct 17 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

The stacked low that has been traversing the Gulf over the past 24-
hrs will move into the far northeastern reaches of the Gulf this
morning before weakening through tonight. Scattered showers remain
ongoing still over the north-central Gulf and these are anticipated
to wind down by this evening. A weak little band of light snow has
developed over portions of the southern Copper Basin, but this will
also dissipate later today. The other feature of note is a weak
front moving into eastern Southcentral today from the west. The
front has helped with some scattered rain/snow showers across the
Susitna Valley. As this front progresses eastwards, scattered
precipitation will shift into the Northern Copper Basin. Any
precipitation from this front will be light and won`t amount to
much.

Colder air will move in behind the front, helping to scour out some
of the cloud cover and dropping temperatures overnight. Sunday
morning temperatures will fall into the 20s to lower 30s for all but
the coastal areas where temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to
lower 40s.

The primary system to watch for early next week will be a low in the
Bering with its associated front lifting across the Bering, AKPEN,
and western Gulf, including Kodiak Island, early Monday...moving
inland by midday. Precipitation will spread across these areas then
into Southcentral by the evening hours. Models aren`t handling this
system well, and that could have a significant impact on
precipitation type and amount. For now, temperatures look to be
above freezing by the time precipitation moves in and would result
in either rain or a rain/snow mix for most areas. Higher elevations
could see mostly snow from this event. Details on this system will
continue to be ironed out over the next day or so. For now have
stuck with a general consensus blend to highlight the upcoming
precipitation.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A front currently situated in the central Bering Sea is bringing
light rain showers to the Pribilof Islands and Unalaska this
morning. The front will rapidly decay as it moves into the
eastern Bering and is expected to have very little impact for
Southwest Alaska. A second, separate front moves rapidly along its
heels, developing over the Central Aleutians this afternoon and
tracking across the Bering Sea/Aleutian Chain through tonight.
Expect another round of wet and windy weather over Unalaska to
Pribilofs by this evening. The front reaches the Southwest Coast
early Sunday morning, rain, snow, and south to southeasterly flow
returns. As moisture spreads inland, expect areas of interior
Southwest to receive more snow than rain, given the cooler
temperatures built up. Through Monday, areas such as Sleetmute and
Crooked Creek may get 1 to 4 inches of snow. Confidence remains
largely unchanged, still low-to-moderate (30% to 50%) given the
dependency on local temperatures.

Out west, a lobe of tropical energy will be swinging up into the
Western Aleutians, bringing up the chance for isolated
thunderstorms over Shemya and Attu as well as the surrounding
marine areas. This energy is expected to shift northward into the
Western Bering and dissipate through Sunday night into Monday
morning.

KM/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The seasonably active weather pattern in the Gulf continues
through the long term period, with a fairly inactive pattern
poised for the Bering. By Tuesday morning, a decaying surface low
along the northern Gulf coastline will continue to bring gusty
easterly winds and rain to the area. For the Alaska Peninsula,
Bristol Bay, and inland Southcentral locations, expect unsettled
and showery weather to continue through early next week as weak
shortwaves rotate through the upper level flow. Additionally,
gusty northerly winds enhanced by cold air advection on the back
side of the low will be possible across the eastern Aleutian
Islands and AKPen, especially through favored gaps and passes.

By mid to late next week, a more impactful storm is expected
to build in the southern Gulf/northern Pacific, entering our area
south of the Alaska Peninsula. Widespread rainfall and
strengthening winds are expected to spread across the Gulf of
Alaska including Kodiak Island. In the Bering by Wednesday
afternoon, there is quite a large spread in model solutions, with
the GFS suggesting a 995 mb gale-force low over the Central
Aleutians, and the Canadian and EC solutions suggesting a 1024 mb
ridge blocking all active weather in the area at that time. By
Thursday, this contended low may shift into the Gulf, bringing
another round of winds and rain to Southcentral, will other
solutions are spreading the high pressure ridge at that time. Both
solutions do suggest a new frontal system entering the
westernmost Bering/Aleutians by Thursday afternoon into Friday
morning. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this system and the
progression of guidance.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...CPANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist for most of the
TAF period. There will be a potential for rain showers and lower
ceilings (possibly as low as MVFR) to return to the terminal late
Tuesday morning.

&&


$$