Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

129
FXAK68 PAFC 070139
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
439 PM AKST Fri Nov 6 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...


Overnight lows dipped into the upper teens to lower 20s across
most of Southcentral with clearing skies and light winds. This is
ten degrees cooler than yesterday morning`s lows. Coastal areas
of Prince William Sound and southern Kenai Peninsula were the
warmest remaining in the upper 30s to lower 40s because of
persistent cloud cover resulting in a rise of a few degrees from
yesterday morning`s low temperature.

The main weather features into the weekend will be the slowly
dissipating low in the Gulf of Alaska, the influx of cooler air
from the Interior and a mid-weekend low off the eastern coast of
Kodiak Island.

This afternoon into tomorrow evening, a low moves northward along
the Prince William Sound and Eastern Kenai Peninsula bringing
coastal rain showers and inland snow. Snowfall accumulations
ranging from a trace to 2 inches are expected for the Copper River
Basin from this evening through late tomorrow morning during the
heaviest time of precipitation. Snow showers linger into the
afternoon. Additionally, low will bring coastal showers and gale to
storm force winds along the near-shore waters of the northern
Gulf.  A ridge quickly builds into the area tomorrow afternoon
enhancing northerly flow through the area causing temperatures to
drop into the lower teens by Sunday morning. Highs on Sunday
rebound into the lower 20s. This cooler air moves into the Mat-Su
Valleys, Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula this weekend with
highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s and lows in the upper
teens/lower 20s.

As the low slowly dissipates, continued confidence in a weak
surface low forming near Kodiak Island tomorrow afternoon brings
increased winds to the Barren Islands and offshore areas of
Kodiak Island and southern Kenai Peninsula. A second low begins to
move into the Southern Gulf of Alaska late Sunday evening bringing
gale to storm force winds along the coast of Prince William
Sound.



&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

A quieter weather pattern is expected across the region. Weak
longwave troughing will bring the chance of rain and snow showers
through the Aleutian Chain and Alaska Peninsula. Interior
Southwest is expected to stay mostly dry. Broad northerly flow
through out the region will trend the temperatures cooler as we
approach closer to winter. A series of North Pacific lows through
early next week are expected to remain south of the Aleutian
Chain. There will be a slight uptick in winds and precipitation
only for the first low tonight for islands west of Adak.

- SS

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term remains fairly active as a barrage of strong North
Pacific lows track south of the Aleutian Chain and enter the Gulf
through Friday.

Looking out west, there is good agreement of a gale force North
Pacific low skirting south of the Western Aleutian Chain Tuesday.
With a suppressed storm track, this system will continue eastward
and really only affect mariners south of the Chain. Out east,
model consensus is solid that a surface low will be weakening
Tuesday afternoon somewhere near the southern tip of the Kenai
Peninsula. This will help to reinforce northwesterly gap winds
across the Alaska Peninsula in the wake of this system. Coastal
Southcentral Alaska looks to be on track to see upslope enhanced
precipitation from this system. One tricky thing will be the low
placement and if we see cross barrier (downsloping) flow for the
northern Cook Inlet region with this system. The EC and its
ensembles is the most bullish on areas like Anchorage seeing snow,
while other models currently show a downslope hole across the
region in lee of the mountains. A second low enters the Gulf on
Tuesday, and the consensus is fair that this will round the Alaska
Panhandle and Southcentral coast as a deep area of low pressure
through Thursday and once again spread precipitation along the
Gulf coast. There is lower confidence at this time of
precipitation spilling over the mountains due to model spread of
the low`s location. The latest deterministic run of the GFS
currently is the most aggressive model, while other global models
show varying solutions due to model agreement breaking down near
the end of the long term.


-AM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
continue through the TAF period. There is a low chance (10 to 20
percent) of fog in the morning as clear skies lead to strong
radiational cooling and development of steam fog over the inlet.
Any fog that does develop this morning is expected to dissipate by
late morning to early afternoon as dewpoint depressions widen by
then.

&&


$$