Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

211
FXAK68 PAFC 141344
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
544 AM AKDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Messages:

- Gusty winds and moderate to heavy rainfall expected for eastern
  Kodiak Island today through Thursday morning.

Discussion:

Early morning satellite imagery shows a nearly stacked low with
prominent dry slot, and entrainment of dry air around the center of
the low, lifting northwards across the far southwest quadrant of the
Gulf. This low will continue to lift north this morning...eventually
stalling and deepening slightly just of the southern AKPEN coast
between Sand Point and Chirikof Island by late tonight. This system
brings a good fetch of moisture northwards as the associated front
lifts north across the Gulf. Kodiak Island is expected to see the
bulk of precipitation from this system initially as the low nears
then stalls, with light rainfall beginning this morning then
picking up through the day...persisting through Thursday morning.
Total rainfall amounts are still looking in the 3-4" range (with
locally higher amounts possible), and could lead to ponding on
roadways and flooding of poor drainage areas. As the front moves
north, a period of strong winds can also be expected to push
through, with gusts of up to 45 mph possible for Kodiak City. The
period for the strongest winds will be pretty brief with the
passage of the front, but gusty conditions will persist through
Thursday morning.

Rain will then spread up along the eastern Kenai Peninsula, Prince
William Sound, and the Northern Gulf coast Thursday as another low
quickly lifts up out of the North Pacific towards the eastern Kenai
peninsula coast. High pressure building in across the Bering Sea
will prompt the other low to start moving eastwards across the Gulf.
While showery conditions will remain over Kodiak through the
remainder of the workweek, the location for heavier rainfall at
lower elevations will shift up into the Western Prince William Sound
and the northern Gulf Coast. Snow is expected for higher elevations.

The rest of Southcentral will remain relatively dry, but could see
some showers along the mountains.

- PP

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Satellite imagery currently shows a North Pacific low south of
the AK Pen this morning. As it moves northward through the day,
its front crosses over the AK Pen later this morning and moves
across southeast Bering Sea, Bristol Bay and the Southwest Alaska
Mainland throughout the day. As it does, wind directions will
change from east to northeast keeping offshore winds into Bristol
Bay through this evening. These offshore winds will continue
through Thursday afternoon before becoming more northerly in the
evening and remaining as such for Friday. Rain will mix with snow
across Southwest Alaska Mainland tomorrow evening into Friday
morning as cooler air continues to filter into the region though
snowfall accumulation of a trace to an inch is expected.

Simultaneously, the 972 mb low stays fairly compact keeping wind
gusts strong across the Aleutians. After the front crosses into
the Bering Sea today, it will stall and more northerly winds from
King Cove west to Dutch Harbor can be expected from late this
evening through Friday evening. A weak ridge builds over Adak
during this time which will assist these strong wind gusts. These
northerly winds, particularly through bays and passes, from Dutch
Harbor eastward to King Cove have a 60% chance of exceeding 50
mph and a 30% to 50% chance of exceeding 60 mph late this evening
into Friday afternoon. The low begins to move away from the AKPen
and into the Gulf of Alaska Friday evening. In its wake, northerly
winds persist over the Central Aleutians.

-Johnston

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

A low in the Gulf of Alaska will keep scattered rainfall for
Kodiak Island and the Southcentral Coast. Higher elevations will
likely see snowfall with snow levels at 1500 to 2000 ft. For
Southwest Alaska, gap winds over the Unalaska area and Alaska
Peninsula quickly diminish as the low moves east by Saturday.
Ridging develops over the Bering, leading to calmer winds and
potentially low stratus or fog. Uncertainty with the low`s
location is present on Saturday, with more or less rain and snow
possible for the coast depending on the low`s exact position. On
Saturday night/Sunday morning, a frontal system moves into the
Bering, leading to rain and elevated winds over parts of the
Aleutians, but exactly which part is uncertain for now.
Southcentral dries out on Sunday as the low is absorbed by a new
low moving into Southeast Alaska. A strong North Pacific low is
poised to move south of the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula Monday,
which would bring gusty winds and rainfall to the Unalaska and
Nikolski area. Precipitation returns to Southcentral as soon as
Sunday night and additional moisture associated with the low will
lift across the northern Gulf coast and Kodiak Island Monday,
producing moderate to heavy rainfall at times.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... Patchy low stratus and fog are developing in Cook Inlet
early this morning, and may periodically drift over the terminal
through about late morning. By this afternoon, the combination of
incoming high clouds and increasing northerly winds will very
likely increase ceilings to above 5000 ft through tomorrow
afternoon.

As a front moves into the northern Gulf this afternoon, strong
southeasterly winds aloft will lead to downsloping and keep rain
chances below 30% over the terminal. However, the combination of
northerly winds at the surface and southeasterly winds aloft could
lead to about a 30 to 50 percent chance of low level wind shear
between this afternoon and tomorrow morning.

&&

$$