Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

072
FXAK68 PAFC 060300
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
600 PM AKST Thu Nov 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Synoptically, a weak low over Kodiak Island, an elongated trough
stretching from the Bering Sea to the Western Gulf of Alaska, a
966 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska and cooler air over the Interior
brings a wide range of weather impacts to Southcentral the next
few days.

Over the past twelve hours ending at 3:00 pm today, a weak low
moved over Kodiak Island bringing periods of rain and low clouds
to Kodiak City. Rainfall amounts across the Island range from a
trace to a tenth of an inch. This low will continue to move over
Katmai National Park this afternoon as it weakens and dissipates.
Gusty northerly winds through the Barren Islands move in
overnight through Sunday as cooler air filters southward.

The elongated trough stretching from the Bering Sea to the
Western Gulf of Alaska digs across the Southern Gulf over the
next 24 hours. The extent of this and its orientation remains
varied with the GFS the most bullish while remaining models and
trends more inline with each other. This consensus solution was
favored today. Therefore, the 966 mb low in the Gulf of Alaska,
continuing its quasi-stationary movement toward Prince William
Sound this afternoon, will continue to bring increased cloud
cover, coastal rain showers and inland snow from Cordova to the
Copper River Basin through Saturday. This low weakens and moves
northwestward and across the Northern Gulf reaching the eastern
Kenai Peninsula tomorrow evening. Taking into account forecaster
confidence with aforementioned model trends and discrepancies,
wind gusts along the Prince William Sound coast having a 30%
chance of exceeding 30 mph through Saturday and a 20% to 40%
chance of precipitation from Prince William Sound to the Eastern
Kenai Peninsula are reasonable. The Copper River Basin will
continue to see snow through Saturday with 1 to 3 inches expected;
most falling Saturday morning.

Cooler air will filter into Southcentral through the weekend
resulting in high temperatures in the 20s to low 30s across
Southcentral. The Gulf of Alaska low combined with the cooler air
moving southward will keep temperatures down to seasonal levels
through Sunday. High temperatures across the Copper River Valley
and Susitna Valley Saturday and Sunday have a 60 to 80% chance of
being below 32 degrees. For the rest of Southcentral, the chance
of high temperatures this weekend below 32 degrees is 5% to 20%.

-Johnston

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3)...

A weak low over Kodiak Island is bringing periods of rain and
snow for the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest. Colder air is moving
in aloft helping to change the precipitation type to snow.
Interior Southwest has been experiencing freezing fog this morning
into the afternoon. Much of it has dissipated, but could return
overnight as temperatures drop.

Chances of precipitation for Southwest also dissipate overnight
as the system merges with another Gulf low. However, precipitation
chances remain for the Alaska Peninsula, as well as the Aleutian
Chain, with the broad northerly winds across the Bering through
the forecasting period. These winds will cool down temperatures
into the weekend. High temperatures will struggle to reach above
freezing by Saturday for most places north of King Salmon.

A front ahead of a north Pacific low approaches the western
Bering Friday night. Current model guidance has this front
stalling south of the chain, keeping the bulk of Small Craft
sustained winds south and west of our marine forecast zones,
before exiting into the North Pacific.

Late Sunday into Monday could have another North Pacific low
enter the Bering west of Nikolski. The system has Gale force winds
around the low`s center, which is expected at this time to remain
south of the Aleutian Chain. Looking at GEFS ensemble data, more
than half of the members have the center of the low passing well
south of the Aleutian Chain. If this trend continues, then it will
be a quieter weather pattern early next week.

- SS

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

By Monday afternoon, models are in solid agreement that there
will be a deep, gale to storm force low moving northward across
the Gulf of Alaska towards the Gulf Coast. This will cause an
increase in gap winds for usual locations across Southcentral
Alaska. Being on the northwestern side of this low, the northern
Cook Inlet region would have a strong down-inlet component to the
wind. For the strongest winds, places to watch will be Kayak
Island to the southern Prince William Sound locations as a barrier
jet sets up ahead of the incoming low. As this low retrogrades
into Prince William Sound or rounds the southern tip of the Kenai
Peninsula Tuesday morning, northwesterly gap winds develop for the
Alaska Peninsula and Eastern Aleutians. As this low tracks along
the coast, expect precipitation to fill in for usual coastal areas
with upslope enhancement, with a downslope hole potentially
developing in lee of the Kenai Mountains for the northern Cook
Inlet region.

Continued gale to storm force North Pacific lows continue to work
their way into the region by Wednesday morning. The GFS seems to
want to bring another deep low into the Gulf, while other models
show a much weaker and compact low across the eastern Gulf. To the
west, models are in much better agreement of a gale to storm
force North Pacific low moving south of the Aleutian Chain also by
Wednesday morning. For the Bering and Aleutians, temperatures are
on track to remain below average, with near to above average
temperatures for Southcentral Alaska.

-AM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light northerly winds are expected to
continue through the period. There is a chance of fog in the
morning as clear skies lead to strong radiational cooling and
development of steam fog over the inlet.

&&


$$