Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXAK68 PAFC 191339
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
539 AM AKDT Fri Jun 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Key Message:

* Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon many places across
  Southcentral today. In the strongest storms, be aware of
  frequent lightning, small hail, and brief heavy downpours that
  could cause localized flooding. If you hear thunder or see
  lightning, seek shelter.

* A Red Flag Warning has been issued for LIGHTNING for the
 Southern, Central, Western, and Northern Susitna Valley, and the
 Lower Matanuska Valley from 1PM AKDT this afternoon to 1AM AKDT
 Saturday.


Discussion:

High pressure spans across Southcentral and eastern portions of
the state while low pressure draped across the western portions of
the state including Southwest Alaska and the eastern Bering Sea.
Easterly waves rounding the ridge had a northeast to southwest
trajectory yesterday and now they are beginning to pivot west and
northwestward this morning. These waves will continue to lift
northwestward today toward Cook Inlet and the Susitna Valley. Some
of these easterly waves will cross the western Alaska Range into
the Kuskokwim Valley, where it will interact with the trough out
west.

With high temperatures warming well into the upper 70s and
stronger upper level forcing, widely scattered to scattered
thunderstorms will kick off this afternoon through this evening.
Although there will be plenty of rainfall with brief, heavy
downpours, ample cloud to ground lightning strikes in the vicinity
of the storms pose the threat of new fire starts. As we lose
daytime heating late this evening and early Saturday morning, any
remaining storms will weaken into rain showers.

Upper level energy rotating around the ridge axis will continue
through Saturday afternoon. The track of another shortwave
lifting out of the Gulf into Southcentral is better as it
approaches the coast, but differences still remain, especially as
the trough tracks inland. Storm coverage for Saturday is will not
as prevalent when compared to today, but isolated chances appears
most likely for the Copper River Basin and portions of the
Susitna Valley.

By Sunday morning, there is fair agreement among the global
models of a relatively weak area of low pressure entering the
western Gulf, which has the potential to bring rainfall to Kodiak
Island. Winds across the Gulf have been southwesterly and will
shift southeasterly for Sunday and Monday. Precipitation
associated with the low will lift north across the Gulf, but
models differ with how much progression it will have before
weakening.


-Rux/AM


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Over the Southwest mainland, chances for daytime showers and
isolated thunderstorms (20 to 30% chance) will continue into the
weekend with the Lower Kuskokwim Valley seeing the most activity.
A Red Flag Warning has been issued, covering the Lime Village
region from Friday afternoon to Friday night for scattered
thunderstorms (50% to 60% chances). Today an upper low descending
from the north over the Kuskokwim Delta region will bring cooler
temperatures and non-convective rainfall. This may prevent
widespread fog from forming in the Kuskokwim Delta. However,
widespread fog and low stratus are expected in Bristol Bay,
following the familiar pattern of building during the evening and
decaying during the morning.

Ridging continues over the central Bering Sea, leading to
widespread fog/low stratus. The front from a North Pacific low
which has been stalled west of Kiska Island, will bring elevated
winds and rainfall to the Rat Islands before dissipating by
Saturday morning, before reaching Tanaga Island. The ridge will
eventually be squeezed by the low out west and the low dropping
across the Southwest Mainland, as well as a second North Pacific low
approaching the Alaska Peninsula Saturday afternoon. This means
that fog/low stratus coverage will shrink to middle of the Bering
between the Adak/Atka and Pribilof Islands area into the weekend.
Moisture from the approaching North Pacific low will push into
Southwest Alaska by Saturday, increasing rain chances for the
Southwest Mainland and Alaska Peninsula. This rain will be mostly
non- convective, but chances (10%) for isolated thunderstorms
over the Kuskokwim regions continue before the moisture and cooler
air makes its way north and decreases convective potential by
Sunday. Also on Sunday, another front will push into the
Attu/Shemya region, bringing another round of gusty winds and
rain.


&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through
Thursday)...

Next week will see unsettled weather for Southcentral Alaska
through Thursday. The showers stem from a weak low that slowly
progresses eastward. The progression of the low is slowed from a
ridge over the ALCAN. Temperatures will be slightly above average
for the mainland early in the week from a surface high.

A Bering low stalled west of the Aleutians will bring its front
over the Aleutians through Tuesday. The front will bring a period
of rain with gusty winds through the Aleutians, slowly weakening
as it progresses east. Following the front, there is significant
model disagreement. The GFS favors development of a Bering low
Wednesday night that would bring rainfall for the Aleutians. Other
models are not keen on acknowledging the low.

Wednesday will see building of an upper level ridge over the
interior. This continues to build confidence for the set up of
scattered showers across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest
Alaska.

-SS

&&
.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist. There is a
chance of showers, and potential thunderstorm activity in the
vicinity of the terminal this afternoon and evening.

&&


$$