Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

678
FXAK68 PAFC 140229
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
629 PM AKDT Sat Jun 13 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Sunday through Tuesday evening)...

***Key Messages:

- Strong southeast winds will develop across portions of
  Southcentral Alaska Sunday, peaking from late morning through
  the evening hours.

- The strongest winds are expected along the Anchorage Hillside,
  Turnagain Arm, and Portage where gusts of 50 to 60 mph are
  possible.


Discussion:

The overall weather pattern across Alaska remains characterized by
broad high pressure centered over the Bering Sea and western
Canada, with several embedded lows and shortwaves rotating around
the periphery of the ridge.

The ridge has lifted northward and elongated this morning as a
stout upper-level low and occluded surface low move from the North
Pacific northwestward toward southern Kodiak Island and the
southern shores of the AK Peninsula. The associated front is now
pushing north of Kodiak City and into the northern Gulf, with
widespread rain and gale-force easterly winds across the coastal
waters.

Rain will continue expanding northward across the eastern Kenai
Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and the northern Gulf Coast
through the rest of today, Saturday. Periods of moderate rainfall
are expected, particularly along coastal and upslope locations
where terrain enhancement will maximize precipitation totals.
Inland areas west of the Chugach Mountains will remain
comparatively drier, though increasing cloud cover and isolated
showers are expected.

As the front moves inland this afternoon, southerly gap winds for
the typical locations - Turnagain Arm into Anchorage, and the
Knik and Copper River Valleys - will develop. Again, gusts of 25
to 35 mph are possible this afternoon through late this evening.

Attention then focuses back on the Gulf for late tonight, Saturday
as another strong area of low pressure develops, driving toward
the Barren Islands for Sunday morning. This system will have good
upper level support, with a potent shortwave riding along its
front as well as a 120kt jet streak in the upper-levels.

High end gales are expected out ahead of and along the front with
storm-force gusts across the coast south of Cordova and into
Prince William Sound. Another round of heavy rain will also drive
into the coast, with another 1 to 3 inches of rain expected on top
of what will have fallen today.

The bigger impact from this system for Southcentral, however,
will be wind as the low center moves from the Barren Islands
Sunday morning into Southwest Alaska Sunday afternoon. Cold air
behind the front, along with a strong isallobaric max (pressure
rises) behind the front will usher in gusty south to southeast
winds for many locations as the front moves inland. Strong
southerly/easterly winds in excess of 40 kt are possible by late
Sunday morning for Resurrection Bay (Seward) and Passage Canal
(Whittier), respectively. Gusts approaching 60 mph are also
possible for Portage, parts of Turnagain Arm, and the
Anchorage/Eagle River Hillsides. Wind gusts up to 50 mph may be
possible for W and S Anchorage, Palmer, and across parts of the
Copper River Basin.

By Sunday night, the initial frontal system weakens as it
continues to track inland, allowing winds to slowly diminish in
intensity. Unsettled conditions, however, will persist across
much of Southcentral as weaker shortwaves move over Southcentral
from the Gulf, embedded in the southerly flow aloft. Lingering
showers are expected along the Gulf Coast and Prince William
Sound, while interior valleys including Anchorage and the Mat-Su
should see a mix of clouds.

For Monday and Tuesday, the vertically stacked low south of the
AK Peninsula continues to weaken and drift southeast as weak
ridging gradually builds back across Southcentral Alaska.
Precipitation coverage will continue to decrease through the
period, though lingering showers are expected along eastern Kenai
Peninsula, Prince William Sound, and portions of the Copper River
Basin. A tightening pressure gradient between higher pressure
building over the interior and lower pressure lingering over the
northern Gulf will continue to support localized gap winds through
favored areas, including Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley,
and portions of the Copper River Basin. Gusty winds may
periodically extend into West and South Anchorage, Palmer, and
Eagle River, especially during the afternoon and evening hours
Monday and potentially into early Tuesday.

By Tuesday weak ridging becomes more established across the
mainland, promoting a drier and slightly warmer pattern. most
inland locations, including Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys,
should see a mix of clouds and sunshine with only isolated
terrain-driven showers developing over the higher elevations
during the afternoon. Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer
as skies gradually clear and precipitation becomes increasingly
confined to the mountains and immediate Gulf Coast.

-LM/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

*A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the eastern Kuskokwim
 Valley and Lime Village until 10PM this evening for hot, dry, and
 windy conditions.

*A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northern Bristol Bay
 coast including the cities of Dillingham, Togiak, and Manokotak
 until 4AM Sunday. Gusts up to 50 mph are expected for these
 areas.


Discussion:

The forecast continues to remain on track. Big picture wise, the
current synoptic setup consists of small craft front draped along
and just south of the Western Aleutians (and exiting the region),
surface high pressure across the north-central Bering, and a
North Pacific low just south of the Alaska Peninsula with its
front situated across Bristol Bay. Since the front near the Alaska
Peninsula has moved inland, northeasterly to easterly Kamishak
Gap winds have picked up this afternoon as expected, primarily for
the Dillingham and Clarks Point area. Winds have gusted as high
as 46 mph as of 3PM AKDT for Clarks Point. This corridor of winds
extends westwards across Bristol Bay. A few rain showers have
spilled over the northern Aleutian Range and western Alaska Range,
but most of the precipitation continues to be mostly confined to
the windward slopes. Chignik is still on track to see the most QPF
out of this system with high confidence of seeing 1 to 1.5 inches
of rainfall through the rest of the weekend as the front stalls
out. Farther north, mostly high clouds are seen on satellite
streaming over the Kuskokwim Delta and Valley areas, but will do
very little to mitigate fire weather concerns for the Kuskokwim
Valley (Crooked Creek, Sleetmute, Stony River, and Lime Village)
through late this evening.

Winds are on track to quickly diminish early Sunday morning for
the Bristol Bay coast as the front weakens, and henceforth, gap
winds decrease as well. Meanwhile, across the Bering, a stout
northerly flow already in place becomes enhanced as the pressure
gradient between the surface high and the low just south of the
Alaska Peninsula tightens. This interaction will increase winds
across the Pribilof Islands Sunday morning, and subsequently
increase gap winds through favored bays and passes along the
Central Aleutians as the day progresses. As the parent low of the
front impacting the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska becomes
quasi-stationary Sunday morning, a fast moving area of low
pressure in the Gulf will take a northwestward jog and move inland
along the northern most area of the Alaska Peninsula. Similar to
the first system, windward slopes of the mountains will see the
bulk of this moisture, but showers are likely to spill over into
the Kuskokwim Valley mid to late Sunday morning. Through Sunday
afternoon, rainfall will continue to expand across Southwest
Alaska, reaching the Kuskokwim Delta by noon Sunday and persisting
into Monday morning. The overall pattern quiets down early next
week as shower activity and coverage decreases for the Alaska
Peninsula and surface high pressure builds from west to east
across the Bering Sea and Aleutian Chain.


-AM/CL


&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A broad upper-level ridge over the eastern Gulf will gradually
shift eastward through early next week while a low pressure
system remains over the Gulf of Alaska. The interaction between
these features will maintain a moist southerly flow across
portions of Southcentral Alaska through Tuesday. Periods of rain
are expected across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound on Monday, with lighter precipitation extending westward at
times into the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island.

As the ridge axis shifts farther east, precipitation coverage is
expected to diminish from west to east Tuesday into Wednesday.
Showers will become increasingly confined to Prince William Sound
and the eastern Kenai Peninsula, while much of inland Southcentral
trends drier with increasing breaks in the cloud cover.

By Thursday, guidance suggests a weak upper-level disturbance will
track east across the Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing an
increase in cloud cover and scattered showers to parts of
Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. Southcentral Alaska is
expected to remain largely under the influence of weak ridging,
with only isolated showers possible over the higher terrain.

On Friday, relatively quiet weather is expected to persist across
most of Southcentral Alaska. Temperatures should remain near to
slightly above seasonal normals, with partly to mostly cloudy
skies and isolated afternoon showers developing mainly over the
mountains. Coastal areas, including Prince William Sound and the
eastern Kenai Peninsula, may continue to see lingering low clouds
or a few light showers, but widespread precipitation appears
unlikely. Forecast confidence decreases somewhat by the end of the
period, though the overall pattern favors mild temperatures and
relatively quiet conditions.


LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect gusts around 25 kts through this evening before
winds turn to the north around midnight tonight, lasting through
early Sunday morning. However, as a front lifts over the area,
winds aloft will be out of the southeast. Therefore, expect a
period of low-level windshear while surface winds remain out of
the north. Surface winds turn southeasterly by late morning Sunday
to early afternoon, gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph at times.
Expect a few showers over the terminal between 12z to 18z Sunday
before southeasterly flow strengthens, limiting precipitation
from crossing the mountains. Southeast winds slowly diminish
Sunday evening. Ceilings may approach the 5000 foot level between
12Z and 18Z.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...

For Southwest Alaska:

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS
EVENING FOR HOT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR KUSKOKWIM VALLEY EAST
AND LIME VILLAGE...

Downslope compressional warming/drying easterly winds continue to
gradually increase across the eastern Kuskokwim Valley and Lime
Village area this afternoon as temperatures warm into the mid 70s
and relative humidity values dip into the 20-30% range.
Henceforth, Red Flag Warnings remain in effect for these areas
until 10PM AKDT this evening. A North Pacific low has brought a
front inland across the Alaska Peninsula with rainfall this
afternoon, and mostly high clouds can be seen on satellite
currently streaming over the eastern Kuskokwim Valley. A secondary
area of low pressure is poised to move inland across the area
from the Gulf, further enhancing cloud cover, which will allow for
relative humidity values to recover tonight and Sunday morning.
Thus, there is high confidence that fire weather concerns will be
alleviated starting late tonight and into Sunday. Rain showers are
on track to move across the eastern Kuskokwim Valley Sunday
morning, which will keep temperatures cooler and in the 60s to
near 70 for most. Rain showers will continue through Sunday
afternoon.


-AM

&&

$$