Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

733
FXAK68 PAFC 101316 AAA
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
516 AM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026

.Update...

Key Messages:

Winter Weather Advisory for Broad Pass through Sunday Morning for
4 to 12 inches of snow. Steady snow this morning may mix with rain
and taper off for a time this afternoon before a second round of
snow this evening through Sunday morning. Snow amounts will be
highly dependent on temperatures with daytime highs in the lower
to mid 30s.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM AKDT Sat Oct 10 2026/

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Monday night)...

The forecast is on track this morning as a strong occluded front
is pushing east from the western Gulf. South to southwesterly
flow aloft is driving ample moisture from the North Pacific out
ahead of the front and over Southcentral Alaska. The heaviest
precipitation is falling along the coast and across areas favored
by upslope flow, such as northern and eastern portions of the
Susitna Valley from Hatcher Pass to Broad Pass. A strong pressure
gradient between a surface ridge over the eastern Gulf and deep
low pressure in the Bering has also resulted in gusty winds for
many locations and has also allowed for the development of strong
southeasterly gap winds through Turnagain Arm and the Knik River
Valley, where gusts have peaked around 40 mph overnight.

Light rain across the Anchorage Bowl and western Kenai overnight
has tapered off a bit this morning as weak southeasterly flow
aloft and exiting shortwave have allowed for some downsloping.
While the southeasterly flow will continue to increase through the
morning and early afternoon hours, upper-level waves (i.e.
advecting vorticity lobes) will allow for periods of rain
throughout the day.

Snow levels today will rise from around 2,000 ft near the Alaska
Range and 2,800 ft farther south to around 2,600 ft and 3,200 ft,
respectively, through the day. This will allow snow falling
through mountain passes this morning to at least mix with rain for
a time this afternoon before snow levels fall and precipitation
changes back to snow tonight through Sunday morning.

There remains high confidence in light accumulations expected at
the passes (2-4" lower Broad Pass, 3-6" top of Broad Pass, 4-7"
Thompson Pass). Confidence is also high (80-90 percent) for higher
elevations of Hatcher Pass (> 3,000 ft)to see 6-12 inches of snow
with this system (with totals closer to 2 feet above 4,000 ft).
For lower elevations, temperatures will continue to warm
throughout the weekend as this system moves through.

Regarding precipitation amounts, the heaviest and most persistent
precipitation is expected to be along the northern Gulf Coast
(widespread 2-3 inches through Sunday afternoon with some locally
higher amounts possible) and the western Alaska Range to the
northern Susitna Valley (1-3 inches through Sunday afternoon with
some locally higher amounts possible). Downsloping winds will
result in lower total precipitation amounts for the western Kenai,
Anchorage, lower Mat-Su Valleys, and the Copper River Basin.

Regarding winds, high confidence of gusts up to 55 mph through
Turnagain Arm and the Anchorage Hillside and up to 45 mph and 40
mph, respectively, for Knik River and Copper River Valleys.
Southerly small-craft force winds persist through the Gulf on
Saturday, with some gales possible in the southern portion of Cook
Inlet.

By late Saturday, models show a shortwave driving northward
along the front which will spin up a new surface low NE of Kodiak
as the upper-level wave becomes more negatively tilted. Again,
there is good model agreement that this new feature and its front
then drive toward the northern Gulf for late Saturday with the
development of a coastal ridge out ahead of the front. There is
high confidence (80-90 percent) that this solution will further
enhance SE gap winds through typical locations; however, with the
low south of the Kenai Peninsula, a down inlet flow will set up
with moderate confidence (50-60 percent) that the Turnagain Arm
jet bends south and away from Anchorage by Saturday evening.

As the low and its associated upper-level trough continues to
lift north Saturday night into Sunday, the barrier jet off the
northern Gulf Coast accelerates to gale-force. Some easterly
gale-force winds likely make it into Price William Sound Saturday
night into early Sunday morning. Winds quickly decrease for
across Southcentral once the front moves through, with the
Turnagain Arm wind decreasing Saturday night and the barrier jet
decreasing Sunday morning. With decreasing winds, the effects of
downsloping also decrease for the western Chugach and Kenai
Peninsula. This will allow precipitation to fill in across the
Cook Inlet and Anchorage Bowl as cross-barrier flow diminishes and
gusty southwesterly flow (especially aloft) redevelops. Rain may
also make it over the Chugach and into the Copper river Basin
Sunday morning as the low moves into the coast and quickly
dissipates.

Troughing continues over Southcentral through Monday. Clouds and
rain showers will likely (60 to 70 percent) linger through Monday
across coastal Southcentral, the Cook Inlet through Mat-Su
Valleys, and along the Alaska Range, with heaviest rain along the
northern Gulf Coast and snow showers over the coastal mountains
and Hatcher Pass. High confidence (>90%) of additional snow
accumulations for the passes late Sunday into Monday.

-TM/PA

SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Saturday through Monday)...

The forecast remains very much on track as the west quiets down
for now. A large and occluded Bering low continues to spin west of
Saint Matthew Island this morning. This low will progressively
fill and weaken as it generally moves northeastward towards the
Norton Sound through the end of the short term forecast period.
Currently, the 500 mb flow is characterized by broad, neutrally
tilted troughing over the Bering, Aleutians, and North Pacific
with several weak shortwaves rounding the base of the trough. This
will coincide with increased shower potential as these waves pass
overhead. The first shortwave is now located over the Central
Aleutians, closely followed by a second wave diving a bit farther
south over the North Pacific. Both of these features are progged
to move northeastward towards the Bristol Bay and Alaska Peninsula
areas by this evening, where rain chances have been increased for
this morning`s forecast package. There is some spread in the
models on the exact track of the second upper wave, and some of
the guidance has it sliding south of the Alaska Peninsula and more
on track to move over Kodiak Island by Sunday morning.

Weakening cyclonic flow aloft Sunday afternoon (depicted as 500
mb geo-potential height rises as the upper level low continues to
lose steam as it moves over the Norton Sound) will result in
overall decreases in chances of precipitation, but showers will
remain moving west to east across the Bering/Aleutians and into
Southwest Alaska. By Sunday afternoon, yet another wave embedded
within the mean 500 mb flow will drive over or just south of the
Aleutian Chain. A much more robust shortwave nears the Western
Aleutians late Monday as troughing breaks down across/over the
region. Have introduced small craft winds for the Western
Aleutians starting late Monday through Tuesday morning. The signal
in the models is that this wave amplifies, but digs well south
thereafter over the North Pacific. Southwest Alaska slowly trends
cooler through the end of the short term, with overnight lows
dropping to near freezing Tuesday morning area wide.

-AM

LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

Forecast uncertainty in the long range remains high with models
struggling to resolve the eventual progression of the remnants of
Tropical Storm Nolo. Models do agree that broad troughing over the
Bering early next week will become more organized and shift from
the Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of Alaska through the latter
half of next week. Nolo is expected to be picked up by this trough
in some form or fashion, potentially phasing or being absorbed by
additional wave energy lifting across the North Pacific.
Deterministic guidance takes brings a strong low into the Alaska
Peninsula or western Gulf by midweek. Regardless of the various
model differences, strong winds (including gales to even storm
force winds) are likely next week with rain chances also
increasing significantly from the Alaska Peninsula into much of
the Gulf of Alaska and Gulf coast. The GFS remains the strongest
solution at this time, bringing gales and storm force
southeasterly winds into the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island by
late Wednesday, with equally northerly winds on the backside of
the low spreading into the Eastern Aleutians. Of note, the GFS
brings an even stronger low into the Gulf by Thursday with a
strong barrier jet setting up along the Gulf coast into Friday.

BL

AVIATION...

PANC... Confidence is high that southeasterly winds will gust up
to 30 to 35 kt through early afternoon. Confidence is lower
regarding when winds will begin to diminish; model solutions
range from as early as 00Z to as late as 06Z. The TAF leans
towards the majority consensus among the models, and with gusty
winds lingering through about 06Z. Southeasterly winds aloft will
remain strong, however, so there will likely be a period of LLWS
when surface winds weaken.

Otherwise, vicinity showers (30 to 50 percent chance of showers
moving over the terminal) will become more frequent (60 to 80
percent chance) beginning around 03Z. Accordingly, ceilings and
visibility will likely drop to MVFR by around 06Z to 09Z.


&&

$$