Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

134
FXAK68 PAFC 140128
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 PM AKST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Tuesday evening)...

Key Messages:

- High Wind Warnings for both Valdez (northeast gusts 55 to 75
  mph) and Thompson Pass (northeast gusts 75 to 90 mph) extended
  through Noon Monday to account for a resurgence of strong
  Northeast winds Sunday afternoon/evening through Monday morning.

- The High Wind Watch for the Matanuska Valley has been upgraded
  to a High Wind Warning (northeast gusts from 60 to 80 mph) from
  Noon Sunday through Noon Monday

- Wind Advisories have been issued for both Anchorage (highest
  gusts up to 55 mph along north and west Anchorage) and the Upper
  Western Kenai Peninsula (highest gusts up to 55 mph occur along
  the Kenai to Nikiski corridor with localized gusts as high as
  70 mph for Nikiski). These advisories go through Noon Monday.

- Cold temperatures and wind chills persist through next week. The
  Cold Weather Advisory has been extended through next Fri
  afternoon for the Copper River Basin and through the Thompson
  Pass area.

Preparedness Actions:

- Prepare for the strong winds returning later today and
  persisting through the near future. Be sure to secure anything
  that could blow around by strong winds.

- You can reduce your risk of hypothermia or frost bite by
  protecting your skin from exposure and wearing appropriate
  clothing while outdoors. Keep emergency supplies with you in
  your home and while traveling whenever possible. Consider
  wearing your cold weather gear while you are driving through
  frigid temperatures. Know the signs of hypothermia and check on
  others.


Discussion:


The weather pattern remains quite the status-quo in terms of the
strong ridge sitting in the Bering Sea as well as cold and windy
conditions across much of Southcentral Alaska. This will continue
to be the case over the next few days. The strongest winds and
gusts are anticipated across the Matanuska Valley, Thompson Pass,
and Valdez starting roughly Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning as being the window for greatest impacts. Winds have also
been quite gusty today, especially across Valdez and Thompson Pass
where Valdez recorded a wind gust to 77 mph this morning with
Thompson Pass reporting a 95 mph gust this morning. While these
winds will relax somewhat tonight, they will ramp back up Sunday
afternoon and evening and last through Monday morning with similar
values reached today. Winds have also been quite gusty across
Anchorage (mostly north and west Anchorage) and the upper Western
Kenai Peninsula from Kenai to Nikiski. Wind Advisories have been
issued through Noon Monday to bring awareness to gusts up to 55
mph across these areas, with locally higher gusts across Nikiski.

Temperatures have warmed across much of Southcentral today due to
the gusty winds discussed above. Temperatures will cool back off,
especially across the Copper River Basin beginning Monday when the
winds begin to decrease across the area. Therefore, the Cold
Weather Advisories do remain out for there.

In the precipitation department, most of Southcentral will remain
dry for the foreseeable future. Kodiak Island will contend with
off and on snow showers as upper-level shortwaves rotate around a
departing Gulf low tonight and Sunday. Elsewhere, maybe the Copper
River Delta gets clipped with some snow showers on Monday as
another low lifts into the Gulf by then.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday)...

Key Messages:

-Cold temperatures continue across Southwest Alaska, with several
 days below 0F inland and wind chills of -10 to -30. Near-average
 temperatures for the southern AK Peninsula through the
 Aleutians.

-Strong northerly winds from Southwest AK through Bristol Bay into
 the AK Peninsula with gale and storm-force winds across the
 waters, increasing slightly through Monday.

-Little to no precipitation for most of the area through early
 next week.

The big picture from this monring`s forecast remains the same
this afternoon. An amplified ridge over the Bering and trough
over the Gulf of Alaska will remain in place through early next
week. Persistent northerly flow between the two features will keep
gusty winds in the forecast, mainly south and east of the
Kuskokwim Mountains. Winds will be strongest across Bristol Bay
and the Alaska Peninsula. Gusts from 25 to 35 mph are forecast to
expand in coverage across the region with gusts to 40+ mph from
Koliganek, southward to the coast and into Kvichak Bay. The
communities of Naknek and King Salmon will likely be clipped by
some of the stronger winds.

With colder temperatures already in place, ranging from the
single digits to upper teens, wind chills will begin to drop below
zero degrees Fahrenheit. Sunday into Monday many locations in the
interior mainland will likely see wind chills approaching -30
degrees.

Precipitation chances will remain low for most areas the next few
days. Though models are showing better agreement in a trough
digging southward through the Eastern Aleutians Monday afternoon.
Cold air advection and the passage of the trough will result in
elevated winds somewhere from Dutch Harbor through Unimak Pass,
with increasing snow showers.

BL/ER

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A strong area of high pressure centered over the southern Bering
Sea over the Aleutian Islands Adak and Atka and, a broad and
complex low in the central Gulf of Alaska drifts east toward
Southeast Alaska and weakens gradually through the week. The
resulting pressure gradient drives gale to storm force winds out
of gaps from the eastern Aleutians, through the Alaska Peninsula,
to much of the Gulf as far east as the Copper River Delta through
mid- week. These winds will be aided by continued cold advection
across Alaska, with the coldest temperatures in the Copper River
Basin, where they will range from 20 to 40 degrees below zero. A
series of shortwave troughs aloft dropping south from the Arctic
could lead to periods of enhanced gap winds and reinforce the
colder temperatures. The forecast area remains dry overall. The
one exception looks to be on Friday, as some moisture lifts across
the western and northern Bering Sea with weak low pressure moving
over top of the ridge, which could bring some light snow to
portions of Southwest Alaska. By Saturday, the solution`s spread
on the position of the ridge diverge greatly, with some solutions
keeping the ridge over the Bering, others shifting it over the
northern Pacific. Southern solutions would allow for more active
systems to swing into the northern Bering, depending on the ridge
placement.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...An upper trough will over the eastern Copper River Basin
will slowly march westward and likely cross through Anchorage late
Sunday. Persistent deep and cold north-northeast flow ahead of the
trough will maintain elevated northerly winds at the terminal.
Strong subsidence with the trough passage will help to strengthen
winds further. Thus, there is high confidence is gust of 35 kt or
higher all the way through Monday morning. Meanwhile, skies will
remain clear.

-SEB

&&


$$