Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 020331
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
731 PM AKDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Tuesday afternoon)...

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry through Sunday morning, then a shift back to cooler,
  wetter, and windier conditions for much of Southcentral through the
  beginning of the workweek.

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for Anchorage, Mat-Su, and parts
  of Kenai Peninsula and Copper River Valley into the weekend.

- Flood Watch remains in effect for Susitna and lower Matanuska
  Valleys from Tuesday morning through Friday morning, due to
  heavy rain.

Discussion:

An amplified ridge of high pressure remains over Southcentral
Alaska, bringing warm and dry conditions for much of the
Southcentral Mainland through today. Kodiak Island and coastal
locations remain cooler as areas of fog and low stratus slosh
around the Gulf and Prince William Sound. A deck of stratus has
slowly snaked its way north this morning and early afternoon, and
increasing cloud cover as well as inland advection of the cooler
and moister marine layer has suppressed daytime highs for Western
Kenai Peninsula. As such, the Heat Advisory has been canceled
early for this region. Otherwise, Heat Advisories remain in effect
for interior Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage Borough, and MatSu
Valleys through tonight, and through tomorrow afternoon for Copper
River Basin.

Tomorrow will mark a transition from our warmer and drier weather
pattern into a much wetter and windier one. While much of the
Southcentral Mainland will still see a fair amount of sun tomorrow
morning, cloud cover will gradually increase ahead of a front
marching east across Southern Alaska. This system will be one to
watch; the moisture stream associated with it is currently moving
across the North Pacific into the Bering Sea, bringing with it
satellite-observed precipitable water values as high as an
astonishing 2 to 2.5 inches. Expect rain to move into Western
Susitna Valley by late tomorrow night/early Monday morning, with
rain becoming widespread from MatSu down to Kenai Peninsula by
Monday afternoon. Most areas will see rain continue into Tuesday.

One major shift from the previous forecast has been to delay the
onset of rain by about 12 or so hours. Regardless, rain amounts
remain high: 48-hour rain totals from tomorrow night through
Tuesday night range from 2.5-5 inches across Susitna Valley, to
2-3 inches along Prince William Sound and Eastern Kenai Peninsula,
to 1-1.5 inches for Western Kenai Peninsula, and 0.5-1 inch in
Anchorage, Mat Valley, and Kodiak Island. Copper River Basin will
be spared from this deluge; forecast rain totals are about a third
of an inch or less. For Susitna Valley, the current thinking is
that rivers will crest around Wednesday or Wednesday night, and
will likely be LOWER than what was observed from July 21-25th.
However, if you`re in this area, it`s a good idea to stay tuned to
the forecast and begin preparing for increased water levels.

In addition to Susitna Valley, a couple other areas to watch
include Eastern Kenai Peninsula (including Seward) and along
Prince William Sound. These areas bear monitoring but are of lower
concern than Susitna Valley, as there hasn`t been as much rain for
these areas so the rivers have greater capacity to absorb this
additional rainfall. Also worth monitoring are Western Kenai
Peninsula and perhaps Anchorage, where rain rates may cause issues
like ponding of water on roads, even if overall storm totals
remain lower relative to other parts of Southcentral. Overall,
confidence is extremely high that it will be a soggy start to the
week for all but the Copper River Basin.

One final thing to note will be the increased winds. With a ~1030
mb ridge lingering in the eastern Gulf and a ~990 mb low moving
towards Yukon Delta/Norton Sound on Monday, the resulting pressure
gradient will lead to some pretty strong winds, especially through
southeasterly gaps and passes. The current forecast calls for
gusts approaching 60 mph for the Anchorage/Eagle River Hillsides,
and approaching 45 mph for lower elevations of Anchorage/Eagle
River and Copper River Valley.

-KC

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Currently, high pressure resides over Southcentral while a low
resides east of Kamchatka with a front in the western Bering. The
low moves northeast towards Saint Lawrence Island while sending
the front eastward. Along and behind the front, widespread
southerly to southwesterly small-craft winds are expected across
the Bering through Monday, with gale force winds from the Rat
Islands to the Central Bering. By tomorrow morning, the front will
reach the far Southwestern Coast and will continue eastward
through Monday. This front marks the beginning of widespread rain
for Southwest and the northern Alaska Peninsula (AKPen). Heaviest
rainfall will be Sunday night into Monday for the Kuskokwim Delta
and western Bristol Bay and Monday into Tuesday for the western
Alaska Range and northern AKPen. For the Aleutians and Southern
AKPen, light rainfall is expected tomorrow night through Monday
night.

The low slows near Saint Lawrence Island Monday morning and turns
more inland. This will continue to send waves of precipitation
through Southwest and the northern AKPen Monday into Tuesday.
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are expected between
Sunday morning and Tuesday afternoon, with locally higher amounts
(2-3 inches) possible around Togiak and along the western Alaska
Range/Kuskokwim Valley. Small-craft winds will persist north of
the Pribilofs through Tuesday while weakening elsewhere.

One other note is the strength and orientation of the winds with
the Southwest coast between tomorrow afternoon and Tuesday.
Small-craft to gale force winds will be pointed directly onshore
and have a fetch which extends across much of the Bering. Such
could bring water levels up to 1-3 feet above normal high tides
between Sunday afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, especially around
Kuskokwim Bay. Surge will be monitored closely the next few days,
especially given the time of year and persistence of small-craft
to gale force winds pointed directly onshore (Sunday afternoon
through Tuesday).

PA

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

An active and progressive weather pattern will remain in place
through the long term as a broad upper low lingers over Alaska.
Several embedded shortwaves rotating around the parent circulation
will move northeast across Southcentral through the week,
supporting widespread rainfall and rounds of showers and keeping
conditions generally cool and unsettled. The Bering is expected to
predominantly have ridging with occasional shortwaves moving
through. This means that widespread low stratus and fog is
expected with intermittent rainfall and elevated winds for
the Bering. While confidence remains high in the overall pattern,
uncertainty increases later in the week regarding the timing and
placement of individual shortwaves and associated precipitation.

By Wednesday, another shortwave rotating around the upper low will
pull moisture up from the North Pacific into Southcentral Alaska.
This will lead to widespread rainfall over the Southcentral
Coastline and Prince William Sound. Some moisture may make it into
inland areas such as the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage, and the
Mat-Su, but this will depend on the orientation of the shortwave.
Southwest Alaska will see scattered showers with the Bering seeing
low stratus and fog. Gusty southerly winds will move through gap
areas north of Kodiak Island. Thursday and Friday are similar
with the upper trough progressing eastward and continued moisture
being pulled into Southcentral Alaska. More shower activity is
expected over Southwest Alaska with even more low stratus and fog
in the Bering. Wind speeds will weaken at this point and will be
on the lighter side across Southcentral and Southwest Alaska.

There is much uncertainty by Saturday with regards to the
positions of features. The upper low is expected to move eastward,
but the exact track is unknown at this point. Depending on where
it moves, more or less rainfall will fall in Southcentral Alaska.
Also, in the Bering, some kind of low or trough will move in,
leading to an increase in rainfall and wind speeds, but there is
much uncertainty on how these features will develop.

-JAR/LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Overall, VFR conditions are expected. However, a strong
southerly push of marine air is heading up Cook Inlet today and
filling the Inlet with fog and stratus. The main question for
Anchorage is whether that stratus will make it into the airport or
remain west of the area in Cook Inlet. At this time, it looks
more likely that this stratus will remain to the west, but
southwesterly flow at the surface could bring it into the area
overnight and reduce the VFR conditions to IFR ceilings and
potentially lower visibility in fog. The lower ceilings in
stratus is more likely than limited visibility in fog. Should this
marine layer make in fully into the airport, it could persist
through a good part of the day Sunday until southeasterly
Turnagain Arm winds increase Sunday evening which would mix it
out as well as push it away from the terminal.

&&


$$