Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

649
FXAK68 PAFC 051301
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
501 AM AKDT Sun Jul 5 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Tuesday)...

A deep, vertically stacked low is drifting slowly eastwards
across the Gulf this morning, with the center now located just
offshore from Kodiak Island. Steady rain along the low`s occluded
front is streaming into the Gulf coastline, including much of the
southern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William Sound. Areas farther
north are starting out quite a bit drier compared to yesterday,
with much of the western Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su Valleys
getting dried out by cross-barrier easterly flow north of the low.
We`re still dealing with plenty of mid to upper cloud cover, but
the clouds are also keeping temperatures on the warmer side in the
upper 40s to low 50s by preventing radiational cooling.

A much more summery pattern will begin to take shape for the first
half of the week ahead as the low in the Gulf continues to drift
east closer to Southeast Alaska. The low won`t make a whole lot of
eastward progress today, however, so much of the Gulf coast
around Prince William Sound and the Kenai Peninsula will stay
plenty wet until the main moisture axis retreats southeast and
away from the coastline later tonight. Inland areas should stay
warmer and drier, but a few afternoon showers can still be
expected. A thunderstorm or two will be possible as well, mainly
near the Alaska Range, Talkeetnas and northern Susitna Valley.

A more active and even warmer day looks to be in store for
Monday. As the low continues to shift east, northeasterly flow
will develop across Southcentral in between the low and a building
ridge to the north over the Interior. This will help drag a much
warmer and unstable airmass south into the region, supporting a
more significant threat for afternoon thunderstorms. An easterly
wave rotating across the Chugach Mountains around the north side
of the low will provide extra lift and forcing for cooling aloft.
This feature will also provide enhanced easterly flow and up to 25
kts of deep layer wind shear, enough to support some slightly
more organized storm clusters that should initially develop over
and near the Talkeetna Mountains. Steering flow will easily be
strong enough to pull initial storm clusters west into the Mat-Su
Valleys during the afternoon and evening. Even Anchorage will have
a chance (around 20-30%) to see a thunderstorm moving off of the
Hillside into lower elevations during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

By Tuesday, Southcentral will shift back into a col (a gap in
between larger weather systems) along with much weaker winds
aloft. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will again be possible
during the afternoon and evening, especially along and near the
various mountain ranges. The northern Susitna Valley and
Talkeetnas will again have the best shot at seeing lighting
activity. Otherwise, expect another very warm day afternoon in the
upper 60s to mid 70s across the interior valleys.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Today through Tuesday)...

Cloudy, cool, and moist for much of the Bering Sea and Aleutian
Islands as an upper low and various upper level features transit
the region through Tuesday. For Southwest Alaska, a return to
summer-like conditions with warmer temperatures and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Thunderstorms from Kuskokwim
Valley south into interior Bristol Bay could produce frequent
lightning, especially on Monday afternoon.

Diving into the details... the upper level pattern features a low
near Kodiak island, weak ridging in the Bering Sea, and another
low approaching Attu Island. As the upper low near Kodiak exits
into the Gulf, ridging will begin to build down from northern AK
and into Southwest AK. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies,
temperatures warming into the 60s to 70s, and development of
afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms. Convection will
initiate along the thermal trough, which will roughly be centered
over the Kuskokwim Valley, and will be aided by weak short-waves
embedded in the upper level flow. Storm motion will cause showers
and thunderstorms to track southward into the Bristol Bay region.
This pattern will hold through Monday. Models continue to trend
toward faster arrival of a trough from the Bering Sea. This will
push the axis of greatest convection eastward on Monday, favoring
the Kuskokwim Valley eastward to the western Alaska Range and
northeastern interior of Bristol Bay. By Tuesday evening, the
upper low currently near Attu will be approaching Southwest
Alaska, bringing a return to cooler, cloudier, and more stable
conditions with areas of rain. There remain some timing
differences between the various models, but it looks like the low
will arrive late enough for convection to develop in interior
Southwest Alaska before conditions stabilize.

The pattern out across the North Pacific and Aleutians is fairly
complex and model guidance has been shifting from day to day.
However, the general weather trends remain the same. The weak
surface low and front will continue to lift northward through
today, bringing with it a very warm and moist airmass. This will
lead to areas of rain, low clouds, and fog. The large upper low
currently approaching Attu will then track into the Bering by
Monday. Where models were struggling with how this low would
interact with a separate weaker upper low in the Bering, the
latest deterministic model runs seem to be converging on a
solution where the weaker low orbits around the upper low and
slingshots across the Alaska Peninsula late Tuesday night. As
such, forecast confidence is slowly improving on the general
picture and timing, though exact details still remain a bit
murky.

-SEB/KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Unsettled weather and increased winds expected midweek for the
eastern Bering Sea, Southwest AK, and the AKPEN as an upper low
traverses the Bristol Bay and AKPEN region. This low will then
move out out into the western Gulf with increasing rainfall
chances for Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. During
this same time, a lingering trough over the Copper Basin looks to
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms depending on residual
cloud cover and instability. Scattered showers and generally
cloudy conditions possible for the rest of Southcentral. The Gulf
low will slowly meandering eastwards across the Gulf before
gradually dissipating by next weekend.

A secondary trough looks to move out of Kamchatka by late in the
week with another round of showers possible for Southwest AK;
however, long-range models differ significantly on the timing,
position, and strength of this trough. Models are also hinting at
ridging setting up over the western and central Aleutians with
several shortwave troughs moving along the periphery of the
ridge...which would allow for periods of showers by late in the
week.

- PP

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF
period, with ceilings remaining above 5,000 ft. Light
northeasterly winds and vicinity showers will continue through
the morning and into the early afternoon. By mid-afternoon,
Turnagain Arm winds will return, though they will not be as strong
as yesterday, with southeasterly gusts up to 20 kts. Turnagain
winds will diminish through the overnight hours with light
southwesterly winds thereafter.

&&


$$