Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

626
FXAK68 PAFC 091255
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKDT Fri Oct 9 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Sunday night)...

Satellite imagery as of 4 AM shows generally partly to mostly
cloudy skies, from east to west, with lingering low and mid level
clouds across many valley locations and low-lying areas, a result
of moisture still trapped underneath the transient ridge. The
upper-level ridge is sliding east, however, as noted by an
extensive band of cirrus clouds beginning to move over the western
portions of Southcentral in advance of a strong frontal system
currently draped along the west coast of Alaska. Along with the
lower clouds this morning, and similar to yesterday morning, a few
showers have developed over Cook Inlet and parts of the northern
Kenai Peninsula and southern Susitna Valley. These showers will
linger through the morning before lifting north in the
strengthening southerly flow out ahead of the advancing front.

The aforementioned front enters the Southwestern Gulf Friday
morning and moves into the rest of Southcentral by Friday evening.
Cloud coverage will increase throughout the day as the front
moves in. Rain will reach southern Kodiak Island first by late
Friday morning and work northeastward to Cook Inlet, Kenai
Peninsula, western Susitna Valley and the northern Gulf Coast by
Friday evening. Most of the road system should remain warm enough
for rain. Confidence with precipitation being rain increases as
the weekend progresses as moisture streaming into the region
allows temperatures to remain warmer. However, there is a high
likelihood (70-80 percent) for the higher passes (Broad Pass,
Thompson Pass, Eureka) to see some snow, at least initially when
temperatures are cooler, with light accumulations (2-4 inches)
before a change to a rain/snow mix or to all rain on Saturday.
Temperatures may also be cool enough in Valdez Friday night for
some snow to mix in as well. Higher elevations of Hatcher Pass
(above 3,000 ft) will likely (70-80 percent) see 6-12 inches of
snow with this system. Recent model runs have trended slightly
warmer with Saturday morning lows. Nonetheless, snow amounts,
while a touch lower, still look on track.

This front will stream moisture into the region through the
weekend due to southerly winds in the lower atmosphere and
southwesterly winds well aloft driving ample moisture advection,
maintaining steady precipitation for much of the region through
Saturday. The tightening pressure gradient between the exiting
Gulf ridge and the Bering low will also allow gusty southerly gap
winds to ramp up late Friday into much of Saturday high confidence
(80%) that gusts could reach up to 55 mph through Turnagain Arm
and the Anchorage Hillside and up to 40 mph for the Kink River and
Copper River Valleys.

By late Saturday, models show a shortwave driving northward along
the front which will spin up a new surface low NE of Kodiak as
the upper-level wave becomes more negatively tilted. Again, there
is good model agreement that this new feature and its front then
drive toward the northern Gulf for late Saturday with the
development of a coastal ridge out ahead of the front. There is
high confidence (80-90 percent) that this solution will further
enhance SE gap winds through typical locations; however, with the
low south of the Kenai Peninsula, a down inlet flow will set up
with high confidence (80-90%) that the Turnagain Arm jet bend
south and away from Anchorage by Saturday night or early Sunday
morning. The strong southeasterly flow aloft will also increase
downsloping with precipitation chances in the lee of the coastal
mountains diminishing from 60-80 percent Friday night and into
Saturday to 30-40 percent by Saturday evening. Downsloping winds
off the Chugach will keep most of the central and northern Copper
River Basin dry on Saturday as well.

By early Sunday morning, the low and its associated upper-level
trough lift north, allowing precipitation to again fill in across
Cook Inlet and the Anchorage Bowl as the cross-barrier flow
diminishes and a gusty southwesterly flow redevelops in the wakes
of these features. Rain may also make it over the Chugach and into
the Copper River Basin Sunday morning as the low low moves into
the coast and quickly dissipates. Winds look to decrease Sunday
morning as the pressure gradient weakens. Clouds and rain showers
will likely (60-70%) linger across coastal Southcentral and along
Cook Inlet into late Sunday night and early Monday morning as a
weak, trailing upper-level wave moves through the region.

-TM/PA


&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon)...

Key Message: A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for the
Kuskokwim Delta Coast until 3PM this afternoon for water levels as
high as 1.0 to 2.0 feet above the normal highest tide line.
Highest water levels are expected for Kwigillingok and
Kongiganak.


Discussion:

As of this morning, ex-Choi-Wan remains a very broad and deep low
pressure system situated in the northwestern Bering Sea, though
it is in the process of slowly weakening. Its attendant front is
sending a plume of moisture and periods of moderate rainfall
across the eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and across the
western half of Southwest Alaska. Accompanying this front is
southerly small crafts and gales that are aimed roughly
perpendicular to the southern portion of the Kuskokwim Bay coast
for locations like Kwigillingok and Kongiganak. A High Surf
Advisory remains for this area until 3PM later today, with Kipnuk
and Quinhagak included in the hazard. With this advisory, expect
water levels as high as 1.0 to 2.0 feet above the normal highest
tide line. Again, due to the wind orientation relative to
Kwigillingok and Kongiganak, the highest water level rises will be
expected for these two locations. Water levels with the third
high tide cycle this morning are on track to be less than the
previous two, though nuisance flooding in low-lying areas is still
expected through the early afternoon with the possibility of some
minor coastal erosion.

The radar has really filled in rain this morning across Southwest
Alaska. Looking at 500 mb heights and vorticity analysis, this
shows that ex-Choi-Wan is vertically stacked and occluded.
Difluent flow just downstream of the main upper low and base of
the trough axis working in tandem with upper level divergence has
enhanced rainfall this morning across Southwest Alaska. Several
shortwaves, with one located southwest of the Western Aleutians
and another over the Kamchatka Peninsula, are both progged to move
east and round the southern periphery of the trough axis and
eventually over Southwest Alaska over the course of the short term
period, keeping rainfall in the forecast. By the latter half of
Saturday morning, generally expect 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rainfall
across Southwest Alaska, with the highest amounts of close to 2
inches for just north of Togiak and east of Goodnews Bay due to
orographic lift from the Kuskokwim/Kilbuck Mountains. The first of
the aforementioned upper level shortwaves, though there are some
minor timing and positioning differences in the models, is will
drive over the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska sometime
early Saturday afternoon to Saturday evening, which will increase
rain chances once again for these areas. In the wake of the low,
convective showers, aided by somewhat cooler air moving in aloft,
will move west to east across the Bering and inland across
Southwest Alaska Saturday afternoon and through the end of the
short term.

On the wind side of things, southwesterly to westerly gales are
expected to diminish in coverage across the Bering through
Saturday morning as ex-Choi-Wan further fills and moves
northeastward between Saint Matthew Island and eastern Russia.
Widespread small craft winds are still to be expected across much
of the Bering as the system pulls away from the region. Winds
begin to drop below small craft for the Bering and Aleutian Chain
by Saturday evening. Coverage in small craft winds decreases
further by Sunday afternoon and look to remain confined to the
southwestern Bering and just north of the Western/Central
Aleutians. Even as winds tick down over the course of the short
term, southwesterly to westerly sub-small craft, breezy winds will
encompass the east-central Bering, Eastern Aleutians, and areas
along the Southwest coastline Monday morning as the remnants of
the Choi-Wan translates northeastward toward Gambell.


-AM


&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7)...

The upper level low in the Northern Bering Sea starts to break
down early next week. By Tuesday, we start to see another low from
the Pacific interact with the northern Bering low. Confidence is
increasing for ample moisture advecting north and strong winds
developing around the low near the Aleutians Wednesday. Much of
the model guidance yesterday had this low staying near or south of
the Alaska Peninsula with the outlier solutions trying to track
it into the Bering Sea. Some of those outliers are starting to
align more with the more southerly track. This system is likely to
bring a broad area of gale force winds with gusts greater than 50
kts. However, there is the potential (25 to 45 percent
probability) of sustained winds greater than 50 kts with higher
gusts, especially from the Unalaska area and east to Kodiak and
the northern Gulf. This will be dependent upon not only the
strength of low pressure system, but also its placement in
relation to the geographic features across southern mainland
Wednesday and Thursday. Once the front moves inland, the low does
not seem to track very far, meandering somewhere near the western
Gulf or Bristol Bay and gradually weakening through the rest of
this weak. Meanwhile, another low from the Pacific looks to skirt
south of the Aleutian chain Wednesday night through Friday. At
this time, it appears to have minimal impact is it stays far
enough south.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light and variable winds persist
through Friday afternoon. There are a few scattered rain showers
this morning over Cook Inlet; however, there is high confidence
(80%) based on the wind field this morning that these showers
will remain north and west of the terminal. A BKN to OVC deck
around 4,000ft this morning will likely (60-70% chance) become
SCT by around noon as southerly winds increase.

High confidence that southeast winds through Turnagain Arm will
increase by mid to late afternoon with gusts up to 35 kt by late
this evening. Winds are likely (70-80%) to persist through
Saturday night. Rain chances increase to around 70 percent by this
evening with VFR ceilings falling to below 5,000 ft late tonight
and to MVFR by early Saturday morning.

&&

$$