Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

992
FXAK68 PAFC 210036
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
436 PM AKDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Light, periodic, lingering showers may persist into this evening
across portions of southern Southcentral as a shortwave exits to
the east. Otherwise, overall drier conditions are expected
tonight and Tuesday.

The wetter pattern returns on Wednesday as a more robust low in
the Bering will push its front into the region. Widespread
precipitation is expected to begin as early as 4-6AM Wednesday
morning for Kodiak and some higher elevations of the Chugach and
Talkeetna Mountains. By mid-morning Wednesday, precipitation will
spread to encompass almost the entirety of the Mat-Su Valleys,
Kodiak Island, the north Gulf Coast and the Kenai Peninsula.
There is a fluctuating chance for precipitation in Anchorage, as
some models are hinting at downsloping while other track the
precipitation up Cook Inlet and over Anchorage. The eastern Alaska
Range and Wrangell mountains will see snow showers by Wednesday
morning, though the valleys of the Copper River Basin are likely
to remain drier.

Worry not! Precipitation is indeed expected to continue into
Thursday and Friday morning as the Atmospheric River continue to
pump moisture into Southcentral from the North Pacific. Rain or a
rain/snow mix is expected to be the primary precipitation type
Wednesday and Thursday for the lower elevations. With snow levels
raising to 1500-2000 ft - higher elevations will continue to see
all snow.

KM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Thursday morning)...

Rain and snow showers will persist tonight across the
southwestern mainland as a series of upper-level disturbances
moves in from the Bering Sea. The expectation is for continued
showery precipitation across the area with westerly upslope
enhancement along the Western Alaska Range and Aleutian Range.
This activity will taper off through Tuesday morning as an upper-
level shortwave ridge begins building into the southwest mainland
by then. Despite the ridge moving in, expect another overcast day
across Southwest for Tuesday as another low pressure system
approaches.

Attention then quickly turns to the next significant Bering Sea
system deepening tonight and Tuesday, remaining nearly stationary
between Adak and Amchitka through early Wednesday morning. As the
system spins between Amchitka and Adak, multiple frontal systems
will be sent northward and eastward. The first of which will be
today through tonight with Adak and the Pribilofs seeing light
rain with the gustiest winds remaining confined to Adak.

The second and more widespread frontal push of moisture will
arrive with moderate to heavy rain Tuesday morning to Adak and
Atka, and will arrive to the Pribilofs and Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan
by late Tuesday morning to early Tuesday afternoon. By Tuesday
afternoon, the storm strengthens to storm- force on the northern
periphery of the system west of the Pribilofs. Heavy rain moves
to False Pass, King Cove, Cold Bay, and Sand Point by Tuesday
evening. Nunivak Island and the Kuskokwim Delta coast will see a
period of snow at the onset of precipitation Tuesday evening
and with gusty winds, will promote localized blowing snow
conditions, reducing visibility to 1/2 mile or less at times into
Wednesday morning. Heavy rain will not stay over the Alaska
Peninsula too long as the moisture corridor shifts east to Kodiak
Island by Wednesday morning with the Interior Kuskokwim Delta,
Kuskokwim Valley, and Bristol Bay continuing to see light to
moderate rain at times Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening.

The storm slowly pulls northeastward to the central Bering near
the Pribilof Islands Thursday morning. By Wednesday afternoon,
the storm will have pulled in substantial warmer air from the
south, transitioning any remaining areas of snow to a rain/snow
mix or plain rain. Rainfall will likely linger over the Pribilof
islands into Thursday morning. For Thursday and beyond, an
unsettled showery pattern is expected over much of the Bering,
Aleutians, and Southwest Alaska.

-DAN/CL

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...


Precipitation continues across much of Alaska through the
weekend. A North Pacific low will enter the southern Bering near
Adak Sunday morning, passing the Pribilof Islands Sunday night and
pausing west of Nunivak Island on Monday. This system brings
widespread gales across southern and eastern Bering and Bristol
Bay before it weakens on Monday. The highest winds do not reach
the mainland, and concern for coastal impacts is low due to
shorefast ice and some added protection from the expansive ice
floe over the eastern Bering Sea.

The associated front from this system will expand into the
western Gulf of Alaska, drawing upon an extended moisture fetch.
Coastal areas in the northern Gulf, Kodiak Island and higher
elevations of the Alaska Range will likely see the most
precipitation. Away from the coast, expect several days of light
to moderate rain at lower elevations and snow at higher
elevations. Southeasterly flow will allow some downsloping to the
west of the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Model agreement on the track of this system has improved, keeping
the low west to slightly northwest of Nunivak Island, with
southerly flow bringing the main moisture plume into Southcentral
and Southeast Alaska. The minority opinion of the ECMWF places the
center of the system west of the Pribilofs, which would signal
higher wind and precipitation for those islands, but elsewhere
little would change. Shortwaves rotating around the center of the
system will bring slightly less intense precipitation to
Southwest Alaska through the first half of the week.

&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...Gusty southerly winds will gradually decrease tonight to
around 10 kts for much of Tuesday. VFR conditions will likely
prevail through the period, with brief dips into MVFR with showers
through this evening.


&&


$$